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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, July 12, 2014 1:59 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 2.0 - California & 2.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/14 thru Sun 7/20

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Pushing Towards HI & CA
Water Temps Collapsing Around the Galapagos


Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.


Current Conditions
On Saturday
(7/12) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing surf in the knee high range and textured early with a light northwest flow in effect. Down in Santa Cruz there was no southern hemi swell with just rare stray waves in the knee high range occasionally popping up and clean early. In Southern California up north windswell was producing waves occasionally knee high with clean conditions early. Down south there was no surf either with waves maybe knee high on the tray set and fairly clean early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with Tasman Sea swell fading out with waves maybe knee to thigh high on the sets and clean. Trade wind generated east windswell was producing waves at thigh high and chopped at exposed breaks on the East Shore.    

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
No swell producing fetch is occurring or forecast for the North Pacific other than local windswell and limited to North and Central CA and not till Monday (7/14). Tiny energy from what was Super Typhoon Neoguri was tracking northeast expected to reach Hawaii today (Sat - 7/12) and then North CA on Sun (7/13) continuing well into the work week for CA. The models suggest another typhoon to develop in the far West Pacific same area but tracking due west over the week ahead. In the southern hemisphere a small gale developed off the northwestern tip of New Zealand on Thurs (7/3) with 30 ft seas, setting up small swell which is currently hitting Hawaii with minimal energy from it expected to reach into the US West Coast by the weekend. And a slightly broader but still small and weak gale developed southeast of New Zealand late on Sun (7/6) pushing hard northeast on Mon-Tues (7/8) with 30 ft seas aimed northeast towards Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast.  But after that, nothing is forecast with high pressure in control of the upper atmosphere.

Details below...

Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis  - On Saturday (7/12) trades were barely 15 kts over a small and slight south di.cgiaced area east of the Hawaiian Islands offering only limited support for generation of easterly windswell along east facing shores there. Weak high pressure was in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska generating a weak pressure gradient along south-Central CA producing a small area of 15-20 kt north winds resulting in only the smallest short period north windswell radiating south into exposed breaks in South CA. 

Over the next 72 hours weak low pressure is to start developing in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska while high pressure tries to build in the extreme Eastern Gulf with north winds and a weak pressure gradient developing over Point Conception Sunday lifting rapidly north on Monday taking up residence over Northern CA on Monday (7/14) with north winds there to 25 kts and north windswell on the increase for Central CA holding into Tuesday.    

Easterly trades relative to Hawaii to build a little bit and positioned a bit more to the north, more directly east of the ISlands starting Sun (7/13) at 15 kts as high pressure becomes better established in the Eastern Gulf, with small east windswell the result. No change forecast through Tues (7/15). r more southward di.cgiaced fetch of easterly trades at 15 kts continuing to produce very limited east windswell for exposed east shores. The remnants of Typhoon Neoguri are to not start redeveloping over the dateline now until late Tuesday eventually lifting northeast into the Western Gulf on Thurs (7/17).


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Storm Rammasun developed 1000 nmiles east of the Central Philippines on Sat AM (7/12) with winds to 35 kts tracking due west. This heading is expected to hold with Rammasun slowly building reaching minimal typhoon status on Tues AM (7/15) 275 nmiles west of the North Philippines. Landfall is expected there on Wed Am (7/150 with winds up to 95 kts (110 kts) and on the increase quickly. This system is to continue west and tracking into the South China Sea. No recurvature to the northeast is forecast. No swell relative to our forecast area is expected to result.

Previously Super Typhoon Neoguri got no clean exposure to North Pacific waters other than the time it was east of Taiwan on Mon AM (7/7) with seas estimated at 40 ft at 22 N 127E (284 degs HI, 298 degs NCal). Small sideband swell with period 17 secs is possible for Hawaii starting Sat (7/12) at 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft) with slightly more direct energy for North CA on Sun (7/13) at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2 ft) and continuing for several days (see QuikCASTs for details). 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday AM (7/12) high pressure was retrograded from the California coast with a light wind flow in control. Sunday north winds are to be building over Pt Conception to 20 kts with 15 kt north winds reaching up to Pt Arena early then building to 20 kts over the whole of North and Central CA late with the core of the gradient tracking north rapidly. By later Monday 25 kt north winds are again to be in .cgiay over Cape Mendocino solidifying their grasp Tues (7/15) with an eddy flow taking over Central and South CA again. And eddy flow to hold nearshore for through Thurs (7/17) with a broad area of 20+ kt north  winds positioned well off the North CA coast Wed-Thus, then building to 25 kts over Cape Mendocino on Fri. The gradient to start fading on Saturday (7/19) from 15 kts.    

South Pacific

Jetstream - On Saturday (7/12) the southern branch of the jet remained in a zonal configuration running flat west to east and di.cgiaced south on the 68S latitude line and running across the width of the South Pacific. A patch of 130 kt winds were building in the flow in the Southwest Pacific suggestive of a new ridge building there.  No troughing was indicated anywhere across the South Pacific with no support for gale development suggested. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to hold it's position and configuration down at 68S while loosing wind energy, but still showing no indication of a trough developing anywhere along it's length. Beyond 72 hours starting later Tues (7/15) more wind energy is to be building under New Zealand at 120 kts sweeping east but also lifting north some with a trough starting to build in the far Southeast Pacific late Thurs (7/17) but not reaching north of 60S, offering little in terms of support for gale development north of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Reinforcing wind energy to also feed into this trough into Sat (7/19) but again not pushing it's apex north enough to be of interest.   

Surface Analysis  -  On Saturday (7/12) tiny swell from a small gale previously in the Tasman Sea was just starting to hit the US West Coast but tiny in size (see Tasman Sea Gale below). Swell from another small gale that developed east of New Zealand is in the water pushing towards Tahiti, Hawaii and California (see New Zealand Gale below). 

Also a cutoff gale was developing Sat AM (7/12) and tracking east-southeast from a point 800 nmiles south of Tahiti generating 45 kt northwest winds and 36 ft seas aimed south over a tiny area at 34S 142W. This system is to track southeast into Sun AM (7/13) with seas fading from 30 ft at 36S 132W, then turn east and dissipate. The only swell target is to be Chile and Peru.          

Tasman Sea Gale
A small gale was trying to organize in the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (7/2) with 40 kt winds aimed north over a tiny area and seas building from 24 ft at 40S 164E. On Thurs AM (7/3) 40 kt south winds built in coverage with seas up to nearly 30 ft over a tiny area at 36S 168E. This system peaked 6 hours later (18Z) with 30 ft seas at 33S 171E (209 degs HI and partially shadowed by Fiji, 230 degs NCal, 232 degs SCal).  Fetch was fading fast in the evening from 40 kts with 28 ft seas fading at 30S 174E. Swell has already past Fiji and Hawaii, with a little energy possible for the US West Coast with luck.

California:  Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (7/12) with period 17 secs peaking late with pure swell 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2 ft). Swell fading Sunday (7/13) from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs early (2 ft). Swell Direction: 230 degs NCal, 232 degs SCal.        

New Zealand Gale

A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun PM (7/6) with southwest winds building from 45 kts over a small area and seas to 28 ft at 59S 175E. A decent fetch of 40 kt south-southwest winds built Mon AM (7/7) pushing well to the northeast with seas building to 26 ft at 54S 175W. In the evening fetch was holding at 40 kts still aimed north-northeast with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 46S 170W
(214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 NCal and barely shadowed, 188 degrees Hawaii). By Tues AM (7/8) south winds were fading from 35 kts with 28 ft seas fading over a tiny area at 39S 162W. This system dissipated after that. A decent pulse of swell to result for Tahiti with small energy for Hawaii and smaller and shadowed energy for California.

Hawaii:  Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/13) with swell building to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs (4 ft) late. Swell building into Mon AM (7/14) reaching 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.8 ft) and holding. Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early  (4.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/16) fading from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

California:  Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed noon (7/16) with period 17 secs and size building reaching 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3 ft) early Thurs (7/17). Residuals expected on Friday (7/18).  Swell Direction: 211 NCal and 214 degs SCal. 


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to hold in the Northeastern Gulf on Wed (7/16) continuing the usual pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino with north winds there 20 kts over broader area reaching almost to Hawaii with 15 kt northeast winds there Small northerly short period windswell is the expected result radiating down the North and Central CA coasts holding into Thurs (7/17) and then building as the gradient builds more, with north winds over Cape Mendocino pushing 25 kts Friday into Saturday (7/19). The redeveloped remnants of Typhoon Neoguri are to push northeast from the Western Gulf of Alaska up into Alaska Thurs-Fri (7/18) offering no swell generation potential. Still, this is interesting if it develops, suggesting that El nino might be trying to have some influence in the upper atmosphere.  

Relative to Hawaii, by Wed (7/16) high pressure is to be building northeast of the Islands with the coverage of trades on the increase then extending from North CA all the way to the Islands at 15 kts but with the wind vector slowly lifting more to the north and then no longer targeting the Islands by early Sat (7/19). Limited easterly windswell is forecast along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands during that window.

Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Saturday (7/12) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was at -20.93. The 30 day average was up to -3.23 and the 90 day average was down at 1.84. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a neutral Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of a neutral Phase of the MJO. The recent falling SOI numbers are a result of low pressure developing just south of Tahiti and is expected to hold through the weekend. Yet another low to possibly follow Wed (7/16) again dropping the SOI into negative territory. The SOI tends to be a lagging indicator running a week behind surface level weather trends.  

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated neutral anomalies over the Maritime Continent reaching east to the dateline and on to a point south of Hawaii. Very weak east anomalies developed midway to the Galapagos but then faded back to Neutral off Ecuador. A week from now (7/19) weak to modest east anomalies are forecast over the entire equatorial Maritime Continent extending east to the dateline and holding to a point south of Hawaii.  Weak east anomalies are to hold east of there almost reaching to the Galapagos. The GFS model indicates a very weak wind pattern in all but the east most sector of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. This to hold till Wed (7/16) when trades start building over the whole area at 10-12 kts with no break projected until maybe Sat (7/19). This is not encouraging. Previously an Easterly Wind event occurred in the West Pacific 6/13-6/19 building to the moderate.cgius category but did not appear to have turned off the warm water flow to the east (more below), though it was close. The TOA array indicated westerly anomalies developed 6/25 west of the dateline (at the surface - the ground truth) and held through 7/6 in the moderate range, then turned neutral on 7/7 but were trending light westerly on 7/11. Additional data from the TOA array with live sensors on the surface indicate weak west anomalies (0-+2 m/s) have continued in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area though the months of May and June between 145E-165E, offering some encouraging news. Regardless, the forecast for the next week (if believable) is not as optimistic.   

See our new Kelvin Wave Generation Area monitoring model here.

Previously a series of WWBs occurred 1/8-4/20 creating a large Kelvin Wave that is now impacting Ecuador, the Galapagos and Peru. And weak westerly anomalies continued through the month of May. This was very similar situation that led up to the big El Nino's of '82/32 and '97/98. But in those instances the WWBs and Kelvin Wave generation progressed non-stop through the Summer and Fall months. 

An article presenting a Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event has been posted here.
A second analysis from 5/28 is posted here.  

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 7/11 are in sync. They both suggest a modest Active MJO signal is in effect in the West Pacific reaching to the dateline. 5 days out it is to hold per the statistic model but the dynamic models suggests a slowly fade setting in, with it gone 15 days out. The statistical model depicts the same trend, but with lingering evidence of the Active Phase holding 15 days out. This is good news if it occurs.  The ultra long range upper level model indicates a weak to modest Active Phase currently over the dateline and tracking slowly east through 7/27. A weak Inactive Phase is to set up in the Indian Ocean and maybe start making progress into the extreme West Pacific on 8/6 making it to the dateline on 8/19. This is a major upgrade and good news. A very weak MJO pattern biased Active is what one would expect if an El Nino were to develop. If a neutral pattern actually prevails in July it provides hope that the warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some impact on the atmosphere above. As said before, we're at the point where weak westerly anomalies should be standard in the West Pacific if El Nino where developing, attributable to warming waters temps over the width of the equatorial Pacific.  The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.    

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of the most recent low res imagery (7/10), a warm water regime remains in control from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and drifting west from there with warm anomalies extending on to the dateline. But most of it is confined east of 120W (in the Nino 1 & 2 regions) at +1.0 deg above normal, with 1 deg anomalies reaching into the eastern edge of the Nino 3.4 region, but mainly falling into the 0.5-1.0 degree range. Now for the bad new: Hi-res SST data depicts the extent of +2.25-4.0 deg anomalies embedded in the Galapagos triangle in rapid decline. And even temps in the +1.5-2.2.5 range are fading quickly, just over the past 3-4 days. The patch of cooler anomalies at -0.5 that were building off the entire coast of Peru have faded, but at the expense of the broader warm pattern. A wholesale decline of the Nino -1 & 2 regions appears to be setting in. Small pockets of previous +4 degree anomalies in the triangle are ancient history. This means the bulk of the massive Kelvin Wave generated by Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted at the surface and is dispersing. Those warmed waters are advecting west, tracking barely into the Nino 3.4 region, but not getting any reinforcements and are having only a slightly impact on the overall water temps in the equatorial Pacific. This remains the tail of the proverbial dog, while Westerly Wind Bursts are the nose. The issue remains getting more warm water into the pipe to eventually erupt near the Galapagos.

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water as is the West Pacific (north and south). Signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California has become a little more pronounced, but not bad, especially given the time of year. And this is expected if El Nino was in.cgiay. This is significant in that is suggests high pressure induced north winds are less than normal off California for this time of year. And the only cool water present is streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator just south of Hawaii, but getting shunted south by the warm water on the equator east of there. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains impressive. 

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator are in decline too. Residual warm subsurface water from the previous Kelvin Wave are dropping. They are currently are +3.0 deg C above normal, and fading. The core is 50 meters down at 110W. Temps previously were up to +6 degs C above normal on 6/21. As best as can be identified the residuals of the Kelvin Wave covers a smaller area now, starting at 145W building into Ecuador with the core between 120W and 100W. Satellite data as of 7/7 depicts a steep downgrade of the areal coverage and intensity of the Kelvin Wave again with elevated surface water heights only 0 to +5 cms limited to 115W into Ecuador and shrinking in coverage. This is a significant downgrade in the past 14 days. Subsurface models as of 7/7 depict the flow from the West Pacific to the east was still open, but with no significant warm water in it. But, the pipe was not closed. That said, a small pocket of +0.5-1.0 anomalies are theoretically in.cgiace under the dateline and building (though no sensors are active there - so it's modeled data), suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave trying to take shape. But even if it does form, at this point in time it's a bare minimal Kelvin Wave and would not even warm waters above what they already are in the Galapagos region. A far stronger Kelvin wave is required. And even at that it would take 2-3 months before it would arrive at the Galapagos (or the end of Sept). 

The Pacific Equatorial Surface Counter-Current (from 2N to 2S from the Philippines to the Galapagos) as of 7/7 continued tracking anomalously east to west from the Galapagos to the dateline (through the heart of the Nino 3.4 region), the exact opposite direction it should be to build warm waters in the East Pacific. But it appears the actual current and anomalies are tracking less strong east to west than data from 7/2 and late June. This is somewhat encouraging news. This west moving current  started 6/17. The current continues flowing west to east in the far West Pacific, holding over the past 7 days, suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave taking shape. The assumption is the change in direction in the current was attributable to development of easterly winds in the same area in mid-June, and could possibly change if westerly winds continue to hold in the West Pacific. 

Projections from the CFSv2 model run 7/12 are likely sensing the decay of warm waters in the east and have downgraded again, suggesting water temps building to +1.0 deg C by early Oct peaking at + 1.2 deg C (down from the +1.55 deg C predicted in early July) holding into Jan 2015, then fading. Previous forecasts peaked at +1.75 in Nov 2014, so we're well off that mark. 

Analysis: It's time to start cutting to the heart of the matter. Hopes for an El Nino in the Fall/Winter of 2014-2015 are in rapid decline. The massive Kelvin Wave that was generated by successive Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted in the Galapagos region and is now dispersing. The WWB ended on 5/1 with all warm water from it expected to arrive 3 months later over the Galapagos, or by 8/1 (if not sooner). with neutral water temps taking over the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle at that time unless something develops to reinforce it. All evidence clearly suggest the warm pool is in rapid decline exactly as projected. A new very weak WWB appears to be developing in the West Pacific (starting 6/28). But even if it were to continue, it would not reach the Galapagos till 9/28. So there's a 8 week 'hole' with no significant warm water to resu.cgiy the Ecuador triangle between 8/1 and 9/28. This will likely cause water temps to decease in the Nino1+2 regions, likely to near neutral. That means that even if another weak Kelvin Wave were to arrive in the Galapagos, it will have to warm water temps from dead neutral, rather than acting as reinforcements to already warmed waters. And if no additional Westerly Wind Bursts occur, warm water in all Nino region will dissipate completely. If one is to believe the models, there a.cgie evidence to suggest the pattern of suppressed trades in the far West Pacific is also decaying, with a more normal trades trying to take root. This is exactly what occurred during the 2012 False-Start El Nino. Of course the other consideration is that the June easterly wind burst was the start of the 'upwelling' Phase of the Kelvin Wave. It's normal after a downwelling Kevin Wave impacts the Ecuador coast, that some period of upwelling (cooling) occurs. But without another WWB building on the dateline to set up another downwelling Kelvin Wave event, then the developing El Nino pattern would dissipate. Monitoring surface wind anomalies in the West Pacific are critical to determining the future of this years potential El Nino pattern, but that is looking more like a last grasp than a certainty.    

We continue waiting for a feedback loop to develop, reinforcing the warm water flow and buildup of warm water off Central America into the Fall. The big concerns are the easterly wind event of the week of 6/17, the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current, a dissipating Kelvin Wave and the degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle, and continued hints of trades building in the West Pacific. What is needed is another Westerly Wind Burst or at least continued westerly anomalies, and no hint of Easterly anomalies. That appears to be trying to happen, but certainly not strongly. . Anything that reduces or suppresses trades in the equatorial West Pacific will suffice to continue the transport mechanism. So out-and-out west surface winds are not required. The macro level concern is that the East Pacific warm pool has NOT been in.cgiace long enough to develop a co.cgiing with the atmosphere above it, though there are some signs that a co.cgiing is starting to develop (low pressure tracking over the dateline and into the Gulf resulting in northwest swell for the US West Coast, reduced high pressure induced north winds along the CA coast). Only once the ocean and atmosphere are co.cgied on a global level (that is the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino is in.cgiay. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. From a skeptics perspective, that's another month before anything is guaranteed, at exactly the same time the warm pool is to be dispersed. But if we're just in the 'Upwelling Phase' of the Kelvin Wave Cycle, and more west anomalies and a new Kelvin Wave are being generated in the West Pacific, then all will remain on-track. The next 2 -3 week are critical, but we're becoming more disposed to believe this El Nino will falter. And if it does falter completely, like the 2012 False Start El Nino, what does this say about the atmosphere, expecially considering the voracity of the Jan-March WWBs? Two false starts in a 2 year time span is most rare. Perhaps the decadal bias towards La Nina is stronger than we suspected, leading credence to the theory of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Something to consider.      

Overall the immediate outlook remains unchanged, but potentially trending towards something that would be considered warm by Aug-Sept 2014. At a minimum the ocean is well past recharge mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Regardless of the WWBs etc, we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern at this time with neither any form of El Nino or La Nina present or imminent. But given all current signs, atmospheric transition appears to be underway, and hopefully intensifying into Fall. There remains 2 months ahead where any number of hazards could derail this event. But this is a better.cgiace than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. And it seems apparent we've recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. In a normal situation one would expect there to be at least one or two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). Historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms). We've turned the corner, but we'll remain cautious and not say to much yet, especially in light of what appears to be a decadal bias towards a cooler regime (since 1998).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's some suggestions of a gale and broad fetch developing and filling the Tasman Sea with 35-40 kt southwest winds resulting in 26 ft seas at 33S 160E targeting Fiji well late Fri (7/18). It would be foolish to believe the models at this early date, but it's something to monitor.

Details to follow...


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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