El Nino Southern Oscillation
(Current Observations and Forecasts)
--- Current Conditions ---
Global Sea Surface
Courtesy: NOAA NESDIS & NOAA Satellite and Information Service
Yellows represent warmer than normal waters (seasonally adjusted)/Blues are cooler than normal
Hi-Res (5 km)
Hi-Res 7 Day Trend (5 km)
Hi-Res Zoom (5 km)
Ocean Sea Surface Wind and Water Temperature Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
Upper Panel: Actual Sea Surface Temps (SST) (C) and wind direction/speed.
Lower panel: SST and wind anomalies - West-to-east winds and warmer than normal water temps are indicative of El Nino
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Height Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA CPC
Subsurface warm water is evidenced by increases in surface water height as compared to normal. Cold water at depth is evidenced by decreases in the surface water height. This data can be used to validate the presence of Kelvin Waves in the equatorial Pacific. Data obtained from the Jason-2 satellite.
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sub-Surface Water Temperature and Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
Kelvin waves are evidenced by pockets of warmer than normal water at the 200m depth. Over time they travel slowly west to east, rising to the surface in the far East Pacific as they impact the South American coast.
Southern Oscillation Index
Measures the relative surface pressure difference between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. Consistently negative values indicate El Nino, positive values La Nina. Short negative spikes are associated with the active phase of the MJO. Continual active MJO events contribute greatly to the SOI and each individual event can generate westerly wind bursts that result in Kelvin Waves.
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
(Total & Anomaly)
Negative values represent increased clouds (more sun radiation absorption)/Positive values indicate less clouds (more reflection) and the inactive phase. Broad areas of negative values over the equatorial Pacific tracking from the Indian Ocean in to the Western Pacific are normally associated with the active phase of the MJO. Also broad negative values can establish themselves over warm water associated with a developing El Nino.
Madden-Julian Oscillation: Global 850 mb Wind Anomaly
Winds blowing strongly west-to-east represent a reversal of trade winds and potentially an Active Phase of the MJO/Winds blowing strongly east-to-west indicate above normal trades and the Inactive Phase
--- Forecast Conditions ---
Temperature Anomaly Forecast
CFSv2 - Nino 3.4 - PDF Corrected - Most Recent Ensemble (E3)
Courtesy: NCEP NOAA CPC
Uncorrected - Most Recent Ensemble (E3)
Madden-Julian Oscillation: Current and Forecast
30 Day Historical 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly & 7 day Forecast - 5S-5N
Courtesy: Michael Ventrice
This chart contains both prior zonal wind anomolies and forecast anomalies (at the bottom). Positive values represent anomalous winds blowing west-to-east and the active phase of the MJO/Negative values indicate above normal trades and/or the Inactive Phase
30 Day Historical 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly & 4 week Forecast Plus Equatorial Waves - 5S-5N
Courtesy: Carl Schreck
Same as above but includes atmospheric Rossby and Kelvin Waves plus Active/Inactive MJO and a low pass filter to identify El Nino
Madden-Julian Oscillation: Phase Diagram
40 day Hindcasat - 15 Day ECMWF & GFS Ensemble Forecast Position of the Active Phase
Courtesy: NOAA CPC
This chart contains both prior and forecast positions of the the core of the Active Phase of the MJO. Location is plotted with respect to 8 Phases or positions around the globe. Phase 1 is over west equatorial Africa. Phase 5 is in the far West Pacific. East anomalies lead the core, peak precip is in the core, west anomalies trail the core. Strength is measured by distance from the center, the further away from the center the stronger.
Madden-Julian Oscillation: OLR 15 day Forecast
Statistic Model top, Dynamic Model bottom. Negative values represent increased clouds (more sun radiation absorption) and the Active Phase of the MJO/Positive values indicate less clouds (more reflection) and the Inactive Phase. Broad areas of negative values over the equatorial Pacific tracking from the Indian Ocean in to the Western Pacific are normally associated with the Active Phase of the MJO. Also broad negative values can establish themselves over warm water associated with a developing El Nino.
Madden-Julian Oscillation: 200 mb/Jetstream 40 day Forecast
Negative values represent increaseed wind speeds and the Active Phase of the MJO/Positive values indicate decreased wind speeds and the Inactive Phase.