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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, May 25, 2024 12:50 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.1 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 5/27 thru Sun 6/2
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Tiny Gale Over SE Pacific
Small New Zealand Gale Developing

BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, May 25, 2024 :

  • Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 16.4 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 78.6 (Barbers Pt), 78.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.6 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 8.2 secs from 63 degrees. Water temp 75.4 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.1 secs from 42 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 5.9 secs from 268 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 54.0 (Harvest 071), 60.8 (Topanga 103), 57.4 (Long Beach 215), 63.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.8 (Del Mar 153), 62.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 6.7 secs from 308 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.1 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.9 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 6.2 secs from 289 degrees. Water temperature was 62.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 6.2 secs with windswell 3.9 ft @ 5.9 secs from 321 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 194 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-18 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and WSW at 10 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 49.5 (San Francisco 46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 53.2 (1801583) and 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (5/25) in North and Central CA waves were flat and lightly chopped from northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh high on the sets and very weak and mushed and heavily textured. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high on the peaks of rare set waves and very weak but fairly clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee high and mushed and not really rideable and heavily textured from southerly wind. Central Orange County had waves up to waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up with decent form but crumbled from northwest winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist to maybe chest high and pretty warbled and mushed from southerly wind. North San Diego had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up but pretty wonky and warbled from southerly wind. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high or so and fairly clean but and somewhat lined up but soft with tradewind texture on it. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high plus and chopped from steady east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (5/25) California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was getting minimal background southern hemi swell. Beyond a small gale developed over the far Southeast Pacific Thurs-Fri (5/24) producing a tiny area of seas to 33 ft aimed north. Another gale is developing under New Zealand lifting well north Sat-Sun (5/26) forecast producing mostly 29 ft seas aimed northeast but with a second pulse on Mon (5/27) forecast to produce up to 36 ft seas aimed northeast over a small area. After that nothing is forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (5/25) no swell was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Sun AM (5/26) northwest winds rebuild some at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Only minimal short period windchop expected to result.
  • Mon AM (5/27) 15-20 kt northwest winds hold over North CA with 15 kts northwest winds for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon but with northwest winds to maybe 20 kts in pockets for Central CA. Minimal weak windswell at best.
  • Tues AM (5/28) northwest winds hold at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build in coverage at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA with windswell production increasing some.
  • Wed AM (5/29) the pressure gradient builds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early. The fetch area builds more in the afternoon with winds 25-30 kts for North Ca and 25 kts for Central CA. Windswell production on the increase.
  • Thurs AM (5/30) the gradient becomes focused on North CA with northwest winds there 30 kts and 20 kts for Central CA nearshore but up to 25 kts off the coast. Windswell building. In the afternoon the gradient becomes focused on Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 30 kts and northwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading slightly.
  • Fri AM (5/31) the gradient fades more with northwest winds 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with 20 kt northwest winds over the rest of North CA and 15 kts over Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient collapses with northwest winds 20-25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
  • Sat AM (6/1) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. Windswell dissipating.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Freeze Level for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulome Meadows): Freeze Level 10,5000 ft today holding through Thurs (5/23) then falling early on Sat (5/15) to near 7.000 ft. Temps quickly rebuilding with the freeze level at 12,000 ft on Sun AM (5/26) holding through late Wed (5/29) then falling to 10,500 ft early Thurs (5/30) and holding there.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (5/25) the jet was split running zonal (flat west to east) with the influential southern branch pushing north at 120 kts just east of the New Zealand forming a trough offering some support for gale development. Otherwise no troughs were indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to fade on Sun (5/26) no longer offering support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours a ridge is to start building pushing southeast under New Zealand on Thurs (5/30) moving towards Antarctic Ice actively suppressing gale formation, More of the same is to persist through the rest of the week offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (5/25) swell from the third of three gales that developed south of New Zealand was all but gone in California (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Swell from a tiny gael that developed over the Southeast Pacific is radiating north towards CA (see Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale started developing under New Zealand Fri AM (5/24) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas 25 ft at 58S 160E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was building slightly while lifting north at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 53.25S 168E. On Sat AM (5/25) fetch was 35-40 kts from the southwest positioned just southeast of New Zealand with seas building to 28 ft at 48.5S 171.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to fade to 35 kts lifting north with seas 28 ft at 45.75S 175.75E aimed north-northeast. On Sun AM (5/26) southwest winds are to be lifting northeast at 35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 40.75S 173W aimed northeast. Perhaps some secondary southwest fetch to develop southeast of the previous fetch and just east of New Zealand too with southwesterly winds at 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 53S 169.5W aimed northeast. A tertiary fetch is build in the evening southeast of New Zealand with 55 kt southwest winds with seas 28 ft at 52S 179.25W aimed northeast. Fetch building Mon AM (5/27) at 55 kts over a tiny area with seas 33 ft at 52.75S 171.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be tracking east at 50 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 51.5S 163.25W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be falling east-southeast Tues AM (5/28) at 45 kts with seas 31 ft at 53S 154.4W aimed east. Fetch dissipating after that. Small swell is possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

 

Central Southeast Pacific Gale
And starting Sat PM (5/11) a new gale started building south of New Zealand producing a broad fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 59.5S 169E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/12) southwest winds built at 50-55 kts over a solid area with seas building to 35 ft at 57.25S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 45-50 kts solid lifting northeast with seas 36 ft at 54.5S 163W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/13) southwest winds were fading from 40-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 52.25S 154W over the Central South Pacific aimed well northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts but still well organized with seas 32 ft at 49.25S 146.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (5/14) with seas fading from 28 ft at 51.25S 133.25W.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198-206 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

North CA: Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197-205 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

 

Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed over the far Southeast Pacific Thurs AM (5/23) producing 45-50 kt south winds and seas to 30 ft over a tiny area aimed north at 59.5S 131.5W. In the evening fetch was lifting north at 50 kts over a tiny area with seas 35 ft at 58.5S 130W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (5/24) fetch continued lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 31 ft at 55S 127.5W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 28 ft at 50.5S 121.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Possible tiny swell for California with more energy form Central America down into South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/1) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/2) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/3) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/1) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/2) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/3) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/24) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/25) Today strong east anomalies were filling the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. East anomalies to hold at strong status over the entire equatorial Pacific into 6/4 then fading while moving east with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA on 6/7 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/10.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (5/24) A weak Inactive MJO ( dry air) was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates it is to fade some on day 5 of the model and nearly gone on day 10 as the Active MJO (wet air) starts trying to push into the West Pacific filling the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/25) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the East Indian Ocean today. The statistical model indicates it is move to the far West Pacific 2 weeks out at weak to moderate status. The dynamic model indicates it moving only to the Central Maritime Continent and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/25) A weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA today. The Active Phase (wet air) is to ease east reaching into the KWGA 6/4 and filling it through 6/14 then moving east of the KWGA. A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move into the KWGA 6/24 and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/24)
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was moving into the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO and strong east anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA through 6/2 then fading with a neutral MJO and east anomalies holding over the dateline through the end of the model run on 6/21 with west anomalies easing into the far west KWGA on 6/7 through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/25) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today but with east anomalies filling most of the KWGA. A period of weak west anomalies are to develop in the KWGA starting 6/1 even as the Inactive Phase develops 5/27-6/6. Then a weak Active Phase is to develop 6/6-6/26 with weak west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. An Inactive MJO is to follow starting 6/20 holding through the end of the model run on 8/22 t with weak west anomalies holding over the Western KWGA. But east anomalies are to be building steadily in the East Pacific reaching the dateline on 7/1 then building west of the dateline over the coming months filling 90% of the KWGA at the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias has regrouped over the Indian Ocean starting 4/28 and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is to be building moving quickly east under California by 6/28 and filling the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/25) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was building in the west reaching east to 177E. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 166W. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 149W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow from 130W and points east of there at 12m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were neutral and shallow over the East Equatorial Pacific t to 140W compressed to the surface (25-30m deep) with +1 degree anomalies building in depth over the West Pacific limited to points west of 150W. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs were 120m deep between 110W-180W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/18 indicates cold water was in control at the surface from Ecuador west to 140W and at depth west to 180W. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 145W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms east of 170W with 2 small pockets at -15 cms at 85W and 110W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/18) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 160W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/24) The latest images depict a clear La Nina cool pool building on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/24): Water temps were falling steadily on the equator from Peru up to Ecuador and then west over the Galapagos out to the dateline. A clear La Nina anvil is developing.
Hi-res Overview: (5/24) Cooler than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to the dateline. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina cool stream tearing through its heart.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/25) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -1.233. They were down at -1.014 (5/16) after rising to +0.184 degrees 5/2 after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(5/25) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.179 falling below the zero mark on 5/20. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST
are steadily falling at +0.2 degs (week of 5/15), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data
is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March and +0.80 April.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (5/25) - Temps to fall to 0.0 late-May and -0.4 mid-July and -1.60 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.40 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.117 degs today and its the 13th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.338 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.741 in Oct and holding there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.893 (-1.075 previous run) in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.631 in Oct (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/24) the Daily Index was steady at +1.17 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising steady at +0.91. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -1.24. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March and -2.09 in April). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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