Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 239 degrees. Water temp 77.5 (Barbers Pt), 77.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from 321 degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 10.1 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 8.1 ft @ 16.1 secs from 309 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 286 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-16 kts. Water temperature 55.6 degs, 55.9 (Harvest 071), 57.0 (Topanga 103), 57.2 (Long Beach 215), 57.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.7 (Del Mar 153), 56.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 12.3 secs from 285 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 12.2 secs from 288 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 259 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.3 secs from 259 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 269 degrees. Water temperature was 55.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 12.5 secs from 289 degrees. Wind east 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNE 6-7 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (San Francisco 46026), 52.9 (SF Bar 142), 54.3 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 52.3 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (1/18) in North and Central CA waves were up to head high and lined up and clean with decent form. Protected breaks had sets at waist high somewhat lined up and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the peak of the sets and lined up with good form and clean but soft. In Ventura County surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and soft but clean breaking mainly on the inside. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some thigh high sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. Oahu's North Shore was getting swell with waves 10-12 ft and fairly lined up and clean but with some intermixed warble and windswell early. The South Shore had some chest to head high sets and clean and lined up with good form when they came. The East Shore was getting wrap around west swell at waist to chest high and pretty warbled from modest northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (1/18) Hawaii was getting swell from a gale that developed while tracking east from Japan Mon-Tues (1/14) with up to 37 ft seas aimed east then on the Dateline Wed (1/15) with 41 ft seas before fading in the far Western Gulf on Thurs (1/16). Residuals well from previous fetch was fading along the US West Coast. Secondary fetch persisted on the dateline moving into the Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/17) with seas 25-26 ft, then faded out. Another small system is to track east from the Kuril Islands Sat-Sun (1/19) with up to 29 ft seas continuing east Mon-Tues (1/21) into the Northwestern Gulf with 26 ft seas aimed east. And yet one more is forecast tracking northeast up into the North Dateline region Wed-Thurs (1/23) with 25 ft seas aimed east. A consistent yet modest pattern is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (1/18) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds building to 150 kts ridging some over the dateline with a developing trough west of the ridge just off the Kuril Islands starting to offer support for gale development and another trough east of the ridge in the Northwestern Gulf but pretty well pinched off offering nothing. The jet was split as it has been 900 nmiles north of Hawaii with energy evenly split between the north and southern branches pushing into British Columbia and Baja respectively supporting high pressure over the US West Coast. Over the next 72 hours wind energy is to slowly fade in areal coverage between Japan and the split point with the split point stationary but the Kuril Island trough tracking east and over the dateline late on Sun (1/19) and into the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (1/21) being fed by a quickly developing pocket of 170 kt winds offering decent support for gale formation then whole time. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to pinch off in the Central Gulf on Wed (1/22) no longer supporting gale formation. Beyond the jet is to hold the same basic pattern but getting weaker and progressively more diffuse and by Sat (1/25) only pockets of 130 kt winds are to remain west of the split point with a trough over Japan and another trying to organize in the Northwestern Gulf while the ridge over the US West Coast starts to get less defined with a cutoff low possibly 1100 nmiles west of San Francisco. Perhaps a pattern change is to be setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (1/18) windswell was fading in California from originating from a small gale that developed over the dateline Fri-Sat (1/11) with energy propagating towards the US West Coast (see Small Dateline Gale below). And swell was hitting Hawaii from one final storm that developed tracking from Japan to the dateline on Mon-Wed (1/15) with swell likely for Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Japan-Dateline Storm below). Secondary gale energy developed on the dateline from the Japan-Dateline Storm producing more swell behind (see Secondary Dateline-West Gulf Gale below).

And another small gale started developing off the South Kuril Islands Fri PM (1/17) with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 41.75N 157.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft at 41.75N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east with west winds holding at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 166E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/19) west winds to be 35-40 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 172.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds hold at 35-40 kts over the dateline with seas 28 ft at 42N 179.5E aimed east. Fetch fading some while moving east Mon AM (1/20) at 30-35 kts just east of the dateline with seas fading from 27 ft at 40.75N 175.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to move into the Western Gulf at 30-40 kts from the northwest with seas 26 ft at 41.5N 169.25W aimed east. Fetch fading and lifting northeast Tues AM (1/21) over the Northwestern Gulf at 30-40 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 44.25N 167.75W aimed southeast. Fetch fading while drifting east in the evening and seas 24 ft up at 447 165W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that. Something to monitor.

Small Dateline Gale
Also on Fri PM (1/10) another small gale developed a bit west of the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 38N 168E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/11) ) west winds were 45 kts moving over the dateline while lifting northeast fast with seas 30 ft at 42N 178W aimed east. Fetch was building in the evening at 45-50 kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 37 ft at 44.25N 169W. On Sun AM (1/12) west winds were 40-45 kts lifting northeast over the Northern Gulf with seas 35 ft at 48.5N 160.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be in the far Northern Gulf at 40 kts poised to move inland over Alaska with seas fading fast from 35 ft at 54N 153.25W aimed east. The gale is to be inland after that. Something to monitor.

Japan-Dateline Storm
A somewhat more interesting storm developed just east of Japan Mon AM (1/13) with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 37.5N 149E aimed east. In the evening the storm continued east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 35.5N 154.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/14) west winds were 50 kts moving half way to the dateline with seas 36 ft at 37N 164.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 45-50 kts approaching the dateline with seas 39 ft at 39.25N 168.25E aimed east. Fetch was fading some Wed AM (1/15) from 45 kts over the dateline with seas 41 ft at 39.75N 174E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40-45 kts straddling the dateline with seas fading from 39 ft at 41N 179.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (1/16) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 41.5N 171.75W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell slowly fading on Sat (1/18) from 7.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (11.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (1/19) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 313 moving to 320 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Sun (1/19) building to 4.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (1/20) from 3.8 ft @ 16 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (1/21) fading from 3.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292-294 degrees

Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Sun (1/19) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaking early Mon (1/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (1/21) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 297-299 degrees

Secondary Dateline-West Gulf Gale
Some degree of secondary energy started developing on the dateline from remnants of the Japan-Dateline Gale (above) on Thurs AM (1/16) producing west winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening west winds were 35-45 kts over the dateline and far West Gulf with seas 28 ft over a small area at 38.25N 179.5E aimed east but surrounded by a broader area of 26 ft seas. Fetch was fading Fri AM (1/17) from 35 kts while moving east with seas 25-26 ft at 38.25N 172W aimed east. Fetch held in the evening at 30-35 kts from the west with seas 23 ft at 42N 173W aimed east. Fetch was gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arriving and mixed with previous Japan-Dateline Swell on Sun (1/19) turning more northerly at 6.6 ft @ 14 secs early (9.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (1/20) from 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell fading out Tues (1/21) from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-330 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (1/21) building to 4.0 ft @ 14 secs at sunset (5.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (1/22) from 3.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/23) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 288 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (1/18) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/19) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon north-northeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northeast 10 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (1/20) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northeast winds 5-10 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip is forecast.
Wed AM (1/21) northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10kts for most of North and Central CA but likely less nearshore.
Thurs AM (1/22) north winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA.
Fri AM (1/23) northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts early for North CA and northwest 10 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA.
Sat AM (1/24) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches. Impenetrable high pressure is in control over the entire US West Coast.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling to 9,000 ft 1/18 falling to 4,000 ft briefly the morning on 1/19 rising to 10,000 ft later and holding at 10,000 ft for the foreseeable future. A continuation of a generally warm and dry pattern is expected and certainly not consistent with a 'normal' Winter. An Inactive MJO the likely culprit

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast forecast developing off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast on Tues PM (1/21) with 40-45 kts west winds and seas 26 ft over a small area at 44N 163.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/22) fetch is to lift northeast approaching the North Dateline region with west winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 45.5N 170.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to ease east at 35 kts with seas 25 ft at 46.5N 176.5E aimed east. Fetch is to lift north up to the Aleutians Islands Thurs AM (1/23) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 23-24 ft at 48N 178E aimed east. Fetch pushing into the Bering Sea and fading after that.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/17) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/18) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and modest west anomalies isolated over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies developing 1/19 filling the KWGA building to very strong status 1/20 and holding to 1/26 then fading some but still strong through the end of the model run on 2/3. West anomalies are to hold at modest status till 1/19 over the Maritime Continent then building to strong if not very strong status starting 1/22 and holding while building in coverage through the end of the model run and starting to push just barely in to the KWGA the last day of the model run. It looks like a possible repeat of December is setting up for late January, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding strong energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific. This might be a good pattern longer term.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/17) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model continuing on days 10 and 15 at strong status becoming centered over the dateline on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the exact same thing. A strong Active Phase is to be building in the Indian Ocean moving to the Maritime Continent on days 5-15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/18) - The models depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the West Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the maritime Continent somewhere between very weak and very strong strength. The dynamic model depicts it building to strong status over the East Indian Ocean 6 days out then fading to very weak status over the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/18) This model depicts a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) over the Central and East Pacific and forecast moving slowly east over the East Pacific through 2/5 then moving over the Atlantic. A weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be developing over the KWGA 1/23 then tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/12 then east of the KWGA and strong south of the US 2/12-2/22. Another Inactive MJO (dry air) is forecast setting up over the KWGA 1/17 through the end of the model run on 2/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/17) Today the Inactive Phase was building over the West KWGA with east anomalies at moderate strength filling it. The Inactive Phase is to track east and filling the KWGA through 2/3 with strong east anomalies in control then fading some 2/3 but still at moderate strength fading to modest status 2/7 holding through the end of the model run on 2/14. West anomalies are to be building over the Maritime Continent reaching strong status 1/19-2/3 and starting to move into the far West KWGA 2/5 but never making it significantly east of the entrance. Active Phase contours are to develop over the Maritime Continent 1/21 pushing to the entrance of the West Pacific but never entering it and fading out 2/7.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/18) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies effectively filling the KWGA into late Feb. The Inactive Phase is already over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/7 with east anomalies filling the KWGA building to strong status 1/20-1/28. A weak Active Phase is to follow 1/28 through 2/25 but with weak east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow 2/15 through the end of the model run on 4/17 with weak east anomalies giving way to weak west anomalies 3/20 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developing 1/18 and forecast holding to 3/20 then fading. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/18) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E and unchanged. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 178E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and a little bit thicker. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a fading pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meter centered at 139W at -5 degs extending from 100-165W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/13 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 170W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building while pushing east to 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175W with -10 cms between the Galapagos to 165W and -15 cms fading in one pocket at 135W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/13) the cool pool is fading in coverage fast compared to 2 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal from 122W to 145W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/17) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 120W to 165E and strongest from 145W to 180W but not present in the far East or West Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/17): A warming trend was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 120W and mixed warm and cool anomalies west of thereto 160W and evenly balanced.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/18) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at -0.291 after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/18) Today's temps were steady at -1.106 and have been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.7 week of 1/1 and 1/8 , rising some from the previous week. Previously temps were -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/16/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals annihilated the CFS forecast (warmer than projected). The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.50 in April 2025 and at -0.15 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.435 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 7th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.2 degs in March (MAM). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.594 in Dec and the Statistic down to -0.203 in Dec. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/18/25) the Daily Index was positive at +0.66 and positive the last 3 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at -1.19 and has been falling the entire last 30 day, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was effectively steady at +5.65 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.