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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Wednesday, September 22, 2021 1:46 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.3 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/20 thru Sun 9/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell Hitting HI and CA
2 More Possibly to Follow

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Wednesday, September 22, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) : Seas were 3.4 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 17.0 secs from 179 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.5 (Barbers Pt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 333 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 266 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 66.7 degs, 67.6 (Topanga 103), 64.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.9 (Del Mar 153), 69.1 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 11.2 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 8.7 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 223 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 244 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 16.2 secs from 295 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 6-10 kts. Water temp 60.1 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.3 (46026), 61.5 degs (SF Bar 142), and 62.2 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (9/22) North and Central CA had waves at head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and clean with only minimal warble and decent form but with heavy fog early. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and clean and lined up but soft and mushed. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and nearly chopped from stiff northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to waist high and fairly clean with a modest northwesterly flow but breaking on the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high and soft and crumbled from northwest wind bump though local wind was light. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting swell with waves head high and lined up but with a fair amount of northeast wind lump intermixed. The South Shore was getting tiny swell with waves waist to rarely chest high and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting thigh high east windswell and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (9/22) in California swell was starting to hit from a second gale previously over the North Dateline Region Fri--Sun (9/19) producing 28 ft seas initially then 22-24 ft sea aimed east. Swell from this system was also hitting Hawaii. And another gale developed over the North Dateline region on Tues (9/21) producing 29 ft seas aimed east then is forecast tracking into the Northwestern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (9/23) with seas fading from 24 ft aimed east. And yet another is forecast for the Gulf on Sun-Mon (9/27) producing 30 ft seas aimed southeast. And it seem more is possible behind. Fall is gearing up!

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (9/22) the jet was tracking east across the North Pacific between the 45-50N latitude lines with a trough over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 120 kts winds offering limited support for gale development. A weak ridge was over the far West Pacific with another in the Eastern Gulf. Over the next 72 hours the Northwest Gulf trough is to push east into Thurs (9/23) being fed by 140 kts winds offering decent support for gale development then pinching off early Friday offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is to start building in the Northern Gulf on Sun (9/26) being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale development and digging deeper into Mon (9/27) over the Eastern Gulf being fed by 140 kt winds still offering good support for gale development before pinching off and moving inland over Oregon on Tues (9/28). At that time yet another trough is forecast developing over the Central Gulf being fed by 130 kts winds moving to the North Central Gulf on Wed (9/29) also offering some support for gale development. A nice little pattern is setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (9/22) swell was arriving in Hawaii and North CA having been generated from a gale previously over the North Dateline region (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is expected to propagate southeast from another gale developing over the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska (see Another Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

And yet another gale is forecast developing Sat evening (925) over the Northern Gulf with 35 kt northwest winds and seas building. Fetch is to building Sun AM (9/26) from the northwest at 45 kts with 24 ft seas at 49N 148W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be holding in the evening from 45 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 46.5N 144.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to hold off British Columbia Mon AM (9/27) at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 29 ft at 49N 142W aimed southeast and barely in the NCal swell window (317 degrees). A rapid fade is to follow. Something to monitor.

 

Northwest Gulf Gale
Another gale developed just west of the dateline in Fri AM (9/17) producing a tiny area of 50 kt west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 43.5N 169.5E aimed east. In the evening west fetch was fading from 40 kts with the gale moving over the dateline with 29 ft seas over a tiny area at 45N 176E aimed east. On Sat AM (9/18) the gale moved east over the North Dateline Region with 35 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 45.75N 176.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft over a modest sized area at 46N 167.75W aimed east. More of the same occurred on Sun AM (9/19) with 35 kt west winds in the Western Gulf and 23 ft seas at 47N 170W aimed east. The gale faded in the evening with 30 kts west winds and seas fading from 20 ft at 46.25N 161.75W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there.

Hawaii (Oahu): Swell continues on Wed (9/22) at 2.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft) holding all day. Swell fading on Thurs (9/23) from 2.3 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (9/22) building to 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (9/23) at 3.4 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (9/24) at 4.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (9/25) fading from 3.0 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

 

Another Northwestern Gulf Gale
Another gale started developing over the dateline Tues PM (9/21) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area aimed east with seas building to 29 ft at 44N 177.75W aimed east. The gale moved to the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (9/22) with 35 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 44N 171.75W aimed east. Fetch to fade to 30 kts in the evening with 22 ft seas at 43.75N 164.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (9/23) the gale is to be almost gone with residual 25 kt west winds in the Northern Gulf and seas 19 ft at 46N 158.75W aimed east. Something to monitor. Possible more meaningful swell for Hawaii and modest swell for the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (9/24) building to 3.8 ft @ 15 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell peaking overnight then fading Sat AM (9/25) from 3.8 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) early. Dribbles on Sun AM (9/26) fading from 2.5 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun AM (9/26) building to 3.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (9/27) from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Thurs (9/23) a summer time gradient is to start building with north winds 20 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts mainly just off the coast of Cape Mendocino with north winds 10-15 kts down to Pt Arena Nearshore and 10 kts kts from Bodega Bay southward.
  • Fri (9/24) the gradient is to be limited to off Cape Mendocino with north winds 20-25 kts mainly off the coast there and northwest 5 kts south of there. Fetch is to fade in the afternoon with local winds northwest 5 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Sat (9/25) northwest winds to be 5 kts early for all of North and Central CA early building to 10-15 kts limited to Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and northwest 5-10 kts south of there.
  • Sun (9/26) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts from Pt Arena northward early and 5 kts from the northwest south of there. Winds fading to calm in the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the Gulf.
  • Mon (9/27) calm winds are forecast for both North and Central CA South and holding all day with a front stalled and dissipating just off Cape Mendocino.
  • Tues (9/28) northwest winds are to be 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA building to 20 kts up north in the afternoon and up to 25 kts south of Monterey Bay.
  • Wed (9/29) northwest winds to be 25 kts solid for all of North and Central CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000 ft today (9/22) rising to 14,000+ ft on 9/23 holding through 9/27. Then the freezing level falls on 9/28 reaching down to 10,000 ft on 9/29, building back to only 12,000 ft on 10/1.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (9/22) no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems were forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's signs that another gale is to try and develop in the Northern Gulf on Wed (9/29) with yet another building off Japan and the Kuril Islands. But it's way too early to speculate on these yet.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Steadily Redeveloping
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with no Kelvin Wave induced warm water present. The forecast has improved some though suggesting weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in October and filling the KWGA after that. A high pressure bias is to control the dateline by early Fall but recent runs of the model suggest that might be temporary, with the high pressure bias out of the KWGA by early Dec. It seems likely blocking high pressure is to hold over the dateline through late Fall, but then the forecast is undefined, but possibly improving as winter takes root.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/21) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/22) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA and reaching east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies slowly fading to moderate strength over the next week but with east anomalies still filling the bulk of the equatorial Pacific Basin through the end of the model run on 9/29 through rebuilding to strong status on the dateline 9/27 and holding through the end of the model run. There's no sign of the Active Phase of the MJO. This has been an unbelievably strong Easterly Wind burst that started 9/8 and has no end in sight.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/21) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive pattern building on day 5 of the model at moderate strength then building to strong strength and holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a neutral MJO signal setting up on day 5 of the model run and holding through days 10 and 15. The 2 models are projecting opposite outcomes. Based on actuals, the statistical model is more realistic but likely overhyped.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/22) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the far East Indian Ocean and is forecast tracking to the Central Maritime Continent at very weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase pushing slowly east to the Central Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run at weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/21) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated pushing over Central AmericA today. A new Active Phase (wet air) is to track east into the KWGA on 9/26 then tracking east and weakly filling the equatorial Pacific by 10/8 then moving east and fading just before reaching Central America on 10/21. A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving east over the KWGA on 10/14 moving to the East Pacific on 10/31 at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/21) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was all but gone from the KWGA today but with moderate east anomalies still in control of the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding on the dateline at moderate strength through the end of the model run on 10/19. But the Active Phase is forecast developing over the Maritime Continent and moving over the West Pacific 9/25 and exiting the KWGA on 10/5 producing a few limited pockets of westerly anomalies in the KWGA before dissipating.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/22 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the east KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to slowly push east and out of the KWGA on 9/27 with east anomalies moving east centered on the dateline and points east of there starting 10/1. A weak Active Phase (2 contour lines) is to develop while slowly pushing east entering the KWGA on 9/23 filling the KWGA on 10/9 and holding through 12/3 with west anomalies steadily plodding east filling the KWGA by 11/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 12/20. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to push into the KWGA on 11/26 slowly pushing east and filling the KWGA at the end of the model run but with west anomalies hold control over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) has developed on the dateline and is to hold while building east to 125W on 11/25 then holding. A second contour is forecast 10/29-11/22. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/3 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 120E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 12/104 and filling 50% of it at the end of the model run. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has taken over the KWGA is to slowly get shoved east and erode as the Active Phase and west anomalies and the low pressure bias try to take root in the KWGA by mid Nov. This suggests redevelopment of La Nina for now but possibly fading some come late Fall and early Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175W. The 24 deg isotherm is stable at 125W. Warm water has receded west and has more or less stabilized there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were building in coverage in the far West Pacific pushing east to 160W. All the sensors are down between 155W-130W so this analysis is suspect. Under that warm pool mostly cool anomalies were in control at up to -3 degs C at 160W 150 meters down steadily rising while moving east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/15 indicates no warm water east of the dateline with cool water east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending into Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down at 160W and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/15) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between Ecuador to 175E and with a peak at -15 cms between 130W-145W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/21) The latest images depict a thin steady stream of cool water on the equator from Peru tracking up the coast then turning west at Ecuador and building out to 160W. Markedly cooler water was in waves between the Galapagos to the dateline. Cooling was building along Chile and Peru too. A homogenous area of warm water was holding along Central America up to Southern Baja with one small hot pool along the coast of Ecuador. Overall this seems to indicate the return of cooling water temps and La Nina. The question is - For how long?
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/21): A mix of warming and cooling waters were in a line on the equator from Ecuador out to 140W. Its a mixed bag today.
Hi-res Overview: (9/21) A thin stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to the Golden Gate. A clear cool outflow is in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. It is stable but weak. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence on the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/22) Today's temps were rising at -0.415 after falling to -0.927 on 9/2 beating the previous peak low reading of -0.746 on 8/15. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been towards falling back into negative territory.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/22) Today temps were stable at -0.353 after rebounding from a previous low of -0.370 on 8/22, the bottom of a downward trend that held for the previous 7 weeks. Before that temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/22) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs in Aug. The forecast indicates temps to make a dramatic fall starting to day down to -1.65 later in November and holding into early Jan 2022, then pushing up to +0.00 degs in June 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling to -1.40 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.41 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.57 degrees in Oct holding into Nov, then rising to -0.33 degs in Jan and neutral in March 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (9/22): The daily index was falling to 0.12 today after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15 and +27.75 on 9/13. The 30 day average was rising to +10.53 today after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling to 9.64 after peaking on 9/21 at 9.8 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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