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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, December 16, 2017 12:35 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.1 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/18 thru Sun 12/24

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Weaker Swell Pattern Forecast
3 Low Output Gales Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Saturday, December 16, 2017 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 10.0 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 8.1 ft @ 10.1 secs from 29 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 276 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.6 secs from 270 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.0 secs from 251 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.0 ft @ 15.4 secs from 287 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 17.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 13.1 ft @ 10.1 secs from 324 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 31-39 kts. Water temp 56.5 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (12/16) in North and Central CA swell from the North Pacific Gale was being overridden by larger local north windswell producing set waves in the 3-4 ft overhead range at top breaks and destroyed by north winds and chop with fully developed whitecaps in effect. Protected breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and trashed by north wind and chop. At Santa Cruz surf was 2 ft overhead and lined up and relatively clean but lumpy In Southern California up north surf was waist to chest high with some stray head high sets and clean and line dup with no wind early. In North Orange Co surf was chest high with maybe a few head high sets and pretty lumpy from southerly winds early. South Orange Country's best breaks were waist to maybe chest high and pretty warbled from southerly wind. In San Diego surf was chest high with sets to near head high and lined up and fairly clean early. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftover North Pacific swell with intermixed windswell with waves 2 ft overhead and pretty warbled and not organized and not really rideable. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting north windswell at 2-3 ft overhead and chopped early with north winds near 10+ kts early but expected to fade fast.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (12/16) swell from a broad system that tracked across the North Pacific Sat-Tues (12/12) with 30-33 ft seas was all but gone in Hawaii and fading in California and being overridden by locally generated north windswell. A weaker storm track is to follow. A gale is tracking through the Northwestern Gulf Sat-Sun (12/17) with 27 ft seas aimed east. Another poorly organized system is to follow tracking from off Kamchatka to the North Dateline region on Mon-Tues (12/19) with up to 25 ft seas aimed east. And another is forecast for the North Dateline same region Wed (12/20) with 28 ft seas aimed east. And a cutoff low is forecast just north of Hawaii Fri-Sat (12/23) with 24 ft seas aimed right at the Island and almost impacting them. So overall a bit of a slow down in the surf pattern is expected.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (12/16) the jetstream was pushing east over Japan with winds 170 kts nearshore but quickly fading as the jet moved east over the dateline then split north of Hawaii with most energy pushing northeast and up into Central Canada with wind in pockets to 130 kts while the southern branch dropped southeast into a cutoff low over Hawaii then proceeded to fragment with some energy pushing over Southern CA and the rest headed southeast towards the equator. A weak trough was indicated near the dateline in the main flow but winds were weak and it was offering little in terms of support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours
winds energy is to be building off of Japan to 200 kts ridging slightly and reaching just over the dateline before splitting heavily with the northern branch tracking northeast up over the Eastern Aleutians and the southern branch falling southeast tracking over Hawaii and then towards the equator. Perhaps a backdoor trough is to develop on Mon-Tues (12/19) tracking down the Canadian Coast moving inland over north Washington State early Wed (12/20). No support for meaningful gale development is indicated. Beyond 72 hours the energetic ridge in the West Pacific is to start spilling into a steep trough in the Western Gulf starting Thurs (12/21) with winds to 200 kts with it's apex directly over Hawaii offering some support for gale development but the trough is to really be too pinched to do much. At the same time a ridge is to start building just east of there pushing north well up into Alaska then falling just as hard south by Sat (12/23) inland over the Pacific Northwest and down over Central California and off the coast down Baja almost forming a backdoor trough. This will only serve to push cold air over the Pacific Northwest down into California. At the same time the trough is to hold in the Western Gulf of Alaska with its apex moving 300 nmiles east of Hawaii being fed by 160 kt winds and becoming slightly less pinched perhaps offering some limited support for gale development there. Back to the west no sign of a split in the jet is forecast, but neither is there indications of any major incursion of wind energy or trough development. This pattern is well entrenched with no sign of changing anytime soon.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (12/16) the last of swell from a gale that previously traversed the North Pacific was peaking in Southern CA and fading in North California (see North Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours energy associated with a weak system that pushed off the the Southern Kuril Islands late Tues (12/12) and tracked slowly east finally started to organize over the dateline into the Western Gulf Fri AM (12/15) with a building area of 30-35 kt northwest winds getting traction on the oceans surface and seas building from 18 ft. The gale plodded east in the evening with winds 35-40 kts from the west and seas building to 23 ft at 49N 175W aimed east. The fetch tracked east just south of the Eastern Aleutians Sat AM (12/16) at 35 kts over a solid area with 27 ft seas at 50N 169W aimed east targeting California and the Pacific Northwest. Fetch is to be tracking east in the evening into the Northern Gulf fading in coverage from 30-35 kts with 26 ft seas at 50N 163W aimed east. Sun AM (12/17) fetch is to be limited to the extreme Northern Gulf at 30 kts from the west with 22 ft seas fading at 51N 152W targeting only British Columbia and points north of there. Swell is expected for Canada and the Pacific Northwest with less energy down into Central CA.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (12/19) pushing 4.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell holds overnight and continues Wed (12/20) at 4.9 ft @ 14 secs (6.5 ft) but with local windswell in the mix too. Swell fading Thurs (12/21) from 4.6 ft @ 11-12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 302-308 degrees

 

 

North Pacific Gale
On Saturday AM (12/9) a gale was developing just east of the North Kuril's slowly getting traction on the oceans surface generating a broad area of west winds at 30-40 kts aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt west winds were holding there with seas building from 32 ft at 48N 167E. On Sun AM (12/10) 45 kt west winds held position over a small area aimed east while additional 35-40 kt west winds pushed hard east reaching into the Western Gulf with seas in the original fetch at 33 ft at 50N 165E (323 degs HI) and 20 ft seas build east over the dateline to 42N 175W. In the evening the core fetch faded from 45 kts still locked off the Kuril Islands with pockets of 35-45 kt west winds extending east into the Gulf with 33 ft seas off the Kuril's over a small sized area at 48N 165E (322 degs HI) but with 28-30 ft seas stretching from the southern tip of Kamchatka the whole way into the Western Gulf with its eastern tip at 44N 167W (296 degs NCal). 1500 nmiles of fetch. Mon AM (12/11) fetch was becoming concentrated in the Western Gulf at 35-40 kts from the northwest and west over a large sized area with 31 ft seas centered at 40N 175W targeting Hawaii directly (325 degs HI, 291 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal) and a small area of 36 ft seas at 44N 160W targeting the US West Coast (296 degs NCal). Much swell energy to be pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. In the evening the main fetch was fading while tracking southeast at 35 kts with a large area of 31 ft seas falling southeast at 35N 171W targeting Hawaii (325 degs HI, 281 degs NCal, 287 degs SCal) and California. Tues AM (12/12) fetch was from the northwest fading from barely 30 kts with 28 ft seas at 34N 168W targeting mainly Hawaii. Larger raw swell is possible for the Islands.

North CA: Residuals fading Sat AM (12/16) fading from 5.2 ft @ 14 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285-290 degrees

South CA: Swell continue Sat (12/16) fading slowly from 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Residuals fading Sun (12/17) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday AM (12/16) high pressure at 1034 mbs was 500 nmiles off Cape Mendocino ridging east into Oregon with a local pressure gradient in effect over North and Central CA with north winds 30-35 kts nearshore there making a mess of things and expected to hold into the evening. The gradient is to fade some on Sun (12/17) with north winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino early but dropping from 15-20 kts from the north-northeast nearshore for all of North and Central CA early and down to 10 kts later afternoon from Pt Arena southward. Monday high pressure weakens with a light offshore flow forecast from Pt Arena southward but with north winds 10-15 kts holding for Cape Mendocino but fading to calm for the whole state later. A weak offshore flow is expected on Tues (12/19) but a new high pressure system is to build from the north Wed AM (12/20) with north winds 20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA building to 25 kts by late afternoon for the whole region. Maybe some light rain Wed AM for North CA fading fast with a dusting of snow down to Tahoe mid-day. North winds still in control on Thurs (12/21) fading to 15 kts later and turning north-northeast. An offshore flow returns Friday and possibly strong for Southern CA to 25 kts. Light offshore winds for the state on Sat (12/23).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
No swell producing winds of interest were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's suggestions of another gale trying to develop east of the Northern Kuril Islands on Sun PM (12/17) with 45 kt south winds pushing up into the Central Aleutians and 30-35 kts west winds behind that front and seas building. On Mon AM (12/18) 40 kt west winds are to be pushing off the Northern Kuril's and Kamchatka with a front on the dateline generating 26 ft seas at 50N 172E somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening west winds to fade from 35+ kts from Kamchatka to the dateline and mostly over the Western Aleutians with 26 ft seas at 51N 174E aimed somewhat east at North CA (308 degrees) but shadowed by the Aleutians relative to the Pacific Northwest. Low odds of sideband energy radiated towards Hawaii. This system is to be gone by Tues AM (12/19).

Some sort of a cutoff low is to possibly develop Tues PM (12/20) 1000 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii with 35-40 kt north winds and 22 ft seas targeting the Islands. That low is to be fading Wed AM (12/20) with 30-35 kt north winds and 20 ft seas fading from 38N 155W. residual winds energy to continue in the area falling south as a new trough builds north of Hawaii Wed-Thurs (12/21) producing 18 ft seas aimed south. Possible small swell for Hawaii to result.

Another gale is to possibly develop over the North Dateline region on Wed AM (12/20) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building to 24 ft at 46N 175E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast fast with 40 kt northwest winds just south of the Central Aleutians with 28 ft seas at 48N 177W aimed east. This system is to track north of the Aleutians after that.

On Fri AM (12/22) a gale is to start building in an upper level trough north of Hawaii on Fri AM (12/22) with 35-40 kt north winds and seas building from 19 ft 600 nmiles north west of Hawaii. In the evening 35+ kt north winds are to be moving to within 100 nmiles north of Kauai with 25 ft seas reaching south to 25N 157W targeting Hawaii directly. Fetch and seas to fade Sat AM (12/23).


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system nor fetch is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

MJO Active and to Build More

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. So it appears now a double dip La Nina is setting up and is to continue through the Winter and Spring of 2017-2018.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (12/15) 5 day average winds were from the east over the entire equatorial Pacific but west in the Central Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and light easterly over the Central Pacific then modest westerly over the Western KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/16) Weak east anomalies were modeled over the Eastern KWGA on the dateline but strong westerly anomalies were over the core of the KWGA. This situation is to basically hold for the next week but with the westerly anomalies building in coverage and easing east and weak west anomalies building from the KWGA into the Central Pacific to 150W. This is a move in the right direction. And east anomalies are modeled at 60E (Indian Ocean) and are to hold for the next week. The Active Phase of the MJO appears to be holding in the West Pacific and if anything is building.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 12/15 a moderate Active/Wet signal was in the West Pacific reaching east to the dateline. The statistical model depicts the Active/Wet Phase easing east making it to the dateline 10 days out the fading to neutral at day 15 with the Inactive Phase moving into the far West Pacific. The dynamic model depicts the Active/Wet signal holding over the West Pacific steady and unchanged through the end of the model run 15 days out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/15) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest in strength over the West Pacific and is to strengthen some while easing east slowly pushing towards the Central Pacific over the next week, then fading to nothing 2 weeks out. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to hold dead steady for the next 2 weeks through the end of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model: (12/16) This model depicts a moderate Active/Wet MJO pattern over the West Pacific and its to slowly easing east pushing into Central America 1/5 becoming incoherent. A modest Inactive/Dry MJO signal is to follow starting in the West Pacific 12/31 and tracking east to the East Pacific through the end of the model run on 1/25/18 (40 days out). Another Active/Wet Phase is to follow in the West Pacific on 1/18 moving east. This model runs about 1 week ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (12/16) This model depicts a building Wet/Active MJO pattern over the Western KWGA with west anomalies west of the dateline and east anomalies east of there. The Active Phase of the MJO is to push east through 12/28 with decent west anomalies in the KWGA through the period. After that a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to reappear 12/27 building over the dateline holding through 1/25/18 with east anomalies developing in the entirety of the KWGA starting 1/9 and holding through 1/25. Beyond the Active Phase is to take control in the West Pacific 1/20 holding through 3/6/18 with weak west anomalies redeveloping in the KWGA and east anomalies fading in coverage and migrating east. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow in the West KWGA at the end of the model run on 3/15. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the west KWGA to 165E and is hold till 2/20, then start moving east reaching the dateline at the end of the model run with a high pressure bias over the East KWGA at 175E and is to move east and out of the KWGA by the end of the run. Even so, no significant oceanic change is expected as a result of this until at least May 2018.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/16) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are barely 30 degs in the far West Pacific at 155E. The 28 deg isotherm line is tracking west at 179E and steep (meaning there is a headwind of cooler water pushing into it from the east). The 24 deg isotherm was weak and steady at 131W and shallow at 50 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise it is clear that in the East Pacific warm water gone and instead neutral to modestly negative temperatures are at the surface and down to -2 degs C down 150 meters filling the area between Central America to 170W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at now up to +3.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool temps retrograded west to 170W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/9 depicts a large area of cool water filling the subsurface East Pacific (-4.0 degs) and erupting to the surface in broad pockets between Ecuador to 170W with warm anomalies at +2-3 degs in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/9) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial East Pacific with a core of -10 cm anomalies present between the Galapagos to 155W with no breaks.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/15) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a cool pattern remains is in control. Upwelling is fading some along Peru and Ecuador but stronger tracking west on the equator out to 140W with a well defined cool pool evidenced over the entire region. No warm anomalies are indicated within 3+ degs north or south of the equator over the entire region.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/14): A warming trend was still in place along Peru and in some pockets on the equator out to 140W. But there were also and equal number of pockets of cooling water interspersed along the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos west to 140W.
Hi-res Overview: (12/14) Regardless of the short term warming trend indicated above, a clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile and up the coast of Peru and Ecuador then building in coverage pushing west over the Galapagos and building out to 180W and stable. Cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. A mature La Nina has evolved.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) Today's temps were steady at -1.282. The lowest point so far in this La Nina was -2.248 degs reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) Today temps were inching down again up but still well negative at -0.944 degs. On (12/7) temps hit a new record low at -1.219, just below the previous coldest peak so far this La Nina on 11/22 at -1.156. And the third previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a solidifying cold pattern. La Nina is in control.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/16) The forecast depicts temps at -0.95 in early Dec and holding into early Feb. Then a weak upward trend is suggested with temps reaching -0.65 in April and -0.2 degs in July 2018 and holding there. This suggests a legit La Nina is expected for the Winter of 2017-2018.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Nov Plume updated (12/8) depicts temps bottomed out at -0.7 in early Nov and are to hold into Dec then slowly rising, to +0.0 in May and +0.3 in July2018. See chart here - link  The NMME consensus for Nov average indicates temps -0.9 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It looks like La Nina is peaking out now. The CFSv2 is now in the middle of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (12/16): The daily index was falling negative today -19.10 today. The 30 day average was rising at +6.86. The 90 day average was rising at +8.27. This suggests La Nina is in control.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (12/16) The index was effectively steady at -1.61 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17). The trend is generally stable for now but clearly indicative of La Nina. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 so we've bested that already. But the recent upward trend is offering some hope. Still it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28, Oct=-0.60, Nov = -0.52. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32, Oct=0.05 . No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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POWERLINES Night at the OPL - Surf Footage Featuring Mavericks from Powerlines Productions plus live music from 6 to 8 PM- Nov 17, 2017. Video starts at 8:15 PM at the Old Princeton Landing (OPL) in Half Moon Bay/Princeton CA.

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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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