Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
Sunday, August 28, 2016
- Buoy 146 (Lanai): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 14.2 secs from 195 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.7 secs from 194 degrees. Wind south 4-6 kts. Water temperature 68.5 degs. At Santa Barbara swell was 0.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 190 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.5 secs from 192 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.3 secs from 185 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 195 degrees. Wind northwest 2-4 kts. Water temp 60.8 degs.
Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys
On Sunday (8/28) in North and Central CA windswell was thigh to waist high on the sets at exposed breaks and clean and making for barely rideable surf. At Santa Cruz fading weak background southern hemi swell was producing surf in the chest to shoulder high range on the bigger sets and clean. In Southern California up north surf was thigh to waist high on rare sets and clean. Down south southern hemi swell was producing set waves in the waist to maybe chest high range and clean but weak. Further down south top spots had set waves in the chest high range on the peak and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh to maybe waist high at best and clean. The South Shore was small with sets waist to chest high and clean at top breaks. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Small fading short period southern hemi swell or indeterminate origin was in the water in California on Sunday (8/28) with a new somewhat longer period swell building that originated from a small gale southeast of New Zealand on Thurs (8/18) with seas to 30 ft. Also a tiny gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (8/22) with 32 ft seas aimed northeast. But not much swell is expected from it for CA. a decent gale is developing and tracking under New Zealand today also with seas forecast up to 36 ft in the evening, then fading while tracking east on Tues-Thurs (9/11) but still producing with 30-32 ft seas aimed east-northeast. It looks like more small swell is to result. In the North Pacific no swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water and none is forecast. Typhoon Lionrock in the far West Pacific has been producing winds and seas continuously since Thurs (8/28) with seas currently to 40 ft aimed east-northeast but still isolated to the far West Pacific (just south of Japan) and is to turn northwest on Mon (8/29). Some small swell to result. And Hurricane Lester was tracking west from a point well south of San Francisco bound for Hawaii with Tropical Storm Madeline ahead of it on a similar track and forecast to strengthen. Otherwise no canonical Fall swell producing weather systems are forecast in the Dateline-Aleutian corridor.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (8/28) no swell is in-flight and none is expected for the next 72 hours.
The California coastal pressure gradient on Sun (8/28) was nonexistent but is forecast trying to develop near Morro Bay late Monday (8/29) with winds 20-25 kts and very southward displaced and holding there through Wed (8/31), but offering no real windswell generation potential.
For Hawaii on Sun (8/28) trades were isolated to the immediate vicinity of the Islands at 15 kts but were less just east of there offering no much in terms of windswell production. Over the next 72 hours there are to remain below the 15 kts threshold east of the Islands, but the approach of 2 tropical systems is to be of much more interest.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Typhoon Lionrock was 450 nmiles south of Southwestern Japan on Thurs AM (8/25) at 23.7N 131E (5,281 nmiles out on the 298.5 degree path) with winds 110 kts and starting to move east-northeast with seas 31 ft. On Fri (8/26) winds fell to 90 kts with Lionrock starting to accelerate to the east-northeast with seas down to 28 ft. But on Sat AM (8/27) strengthening had again set in with winds building to 105 kts at 24.5N 134.7E with seas 35 ft building in the evening to 110 kts with 38 ft seas at 26N 136.6E. On Sunday AM (8/28) winds were up to 115 kts with 442 ft seas at 28.5N 138.9E (4768 nmiles on the 298 degs to NCal). By Mon AM (8/29) this system is to be accelerating to the north-northeast 150 nmiles east of Central Japan with winds 95 kts and turning to the north in the evening with swell producing fetch fading out. Given it's relative strength and heading and weak forward motion Thursday through Sunday some small swell could be generated in this window. But it has a long ways to travel and the fetch area is small. Assuming swell is to result, arrival time with period 16 secs would be 8.8 days, or Sat 2 AM (9/3) continuing through Mon (9/5). Odds very low of any measurable/rideable swell to result.
NCal: Swell to become noticeable on Sun (9/4) at 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft).
Hurricane Lester peaked on Sat PM (8/27) with winds 95 kts positioned 1000 nmiles south of Pt Conception or 2100 nmiles east of Hawaii tracking due west. On Sun AM (8/28) winds were down to 80 kts still heading west and forecast to continue this track with winds fading just slightly to 75 kts in the evening and holding there. By Fri AM (9/2) Lester is to be 400 nmiles east of the Big Island with winds 70 kts and continuing west. The GFS model suggests a turn to the west-northwest putting Lester 200 nmiles north of the Big Island later Sat (9/3) and accelerating on that track beyond. There is much uncertainty regarding strength and heading at this early date but it seems some degree of swell for at least the Big Island is possible.
Tropical Storm Madeline was between Lester and 800 nmiles east of the Big Island on Sun AM (8/28) tracking northwest with winds 45 kts and forecast to strengthen and turn on a more westerly course. Peak winds are forecast on Tues (8/30) 450 nmiles east of the Big Island at 60 kts, then slowly fading. Madeline is to be tracking 20 nmiles south of the Big Island on Thurs (9/1) with winds 40 kts and then falling west-southwest and weakening from there. Local windswell for the Big Island possible but odds are low of any particular outcome at this early date.
Big Island: Windswell building starting late Tues (8/30) to 3 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) and ramping up quickly from there peaking Wed sunset (8/31) at 9.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (9-10 ft) from 280-290 degrees
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday AM (8/28) a weak pressure and wind pattern was in control of all of California coastal waters. No winds (10 kts or less) are expected nearshore for California waters through Mon (8/29) except near Pt Conception where north winds are to start building to 20 kts late and up to 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. The gradient is to remain southward displaced on Tuesday (8/30) with northwest winds 25 kts limited to Pt Conception and 15 kts from Pt Reyes southward then weakening on Wed (8/31). The gradient is to weaken on Thurs (9/1) to 15 kts from the northwest and lift northward reaching to Pt Arena and building to 15-20 kts on Fri (9/2) and then 25 kts on Sat (9/3) but limited to the Pt Arena to Pt Reyes area but with 20 kts north winds reaching south to Pt Conception. That fetch is to fade some on Sun (9/4) with 20 kt north winds over most all of North and Central CA.
On Sunday AM (8/28) the northern branch of the jet was dominant running west to east on the 33S latitude line to 150 kts in two pockets over the Central and East South Pacific slowly falling southeast pushing down to 42S tracking into Southern Chile. The more important southern branch was lifting northeast some under New Zealand forming a trough with southwest winds 140 kts offering some support for gale formation there in lower levels of the atmosphere. But east of there the jet was falling southeast forming a ridge that was locking down the entire rest of the South Pacific actively suppressing gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough under New Zealand is to push east into Mon PM being fed by up to 130 kt winds, then slowly weakening and flattening, but still identifiable as a trough 72 hours out Wed AM (8/31) moving into the Central Pacific (160W). Beyond 72 hours this trough is to weaken with winds down to 100 kts on Thurs PM )9/1) and support for gale formation fading out. The ridge in the east is to be pushed east and limited to the far Southeast Pacific at this time. The southern branch of the jet is to steadily weaken and fall south to 70S and over Antarctic Ice under New Zealand and building east to on Sat (9/3) with winds 80 kts continuing that way into Sun (9/4) offering no support for gale development.
On Sunday (8/28) tiny swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand on Thurs (8/18) was pushing into California (see New Zealand Gale below). Also possible tiny swell is tracking north from a gale that was on the edge of the California in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (8/22). Of more interest is a gale that was building under New Zealand.
Over the next 72 hours a gale was building under New Zealand Sun AM (8/28) producing a broad fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds with seas at 32 ft at 55S 155E (in the NCal swell window at 221 degs, in the SCal swell window at 222 degs, and shadowed by NZ relative to HI). In the evening fetch is to be more consolidated but displaced south some at 45 kts aimed more northeast with seas 35 ft at 53S 163E (221 degs NCal, 222 degs SCal, still shadowed by New relative to HI). On Mon AM (8/29) southwest winds to be fading from 40-45 kts tracking east with seas 35 ft over a broad area at 57S 172E (212 degs NCal and unshadowed, 213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 195 degs HIl). In the evening the gale is to be holding somewhat while tracking east but pushing 40-45 kt winds better to the northeast with seas 34 ft down at 59S 178E (206 degs NCal and in the middle of the shadow, 209 degs Scal and becoming unshadowed, 192 degs HI) with 30 ft seas from previous fetch fading at 51S 180W. On Tues AM (8/30) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the southwest pushing east with 30 ft seas at 60S 172W. Possible swell for HI and CA and reaching well down into Central America.
On Tues PM (8/30) a new fetch of 40-45 kt west winds is to build just behind with seas on the increase from 28 ft under New Zealand. On Wed AM (8/31) a broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds are to be in play generating 30 ft sea at 58S 176W. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds to hold with seas 32 ft over a broad area aimed northeast at 56S 167W (205 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 206 degs SCal and almost unshadowed by Tahiti, 185 degs HI). Fetch is to hold into Thurs AM (9/1) with 32 ft seas at 57S 155W, then fading.
New Zealand Gale
A gale tracked under New Zealand on Thurs AM (8/18) producing a modest area of 45 kt west winds with a small area of 30 ft seas indicated at 60S 172E aimed east (210 degs NCal and barely unshadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs SCal and shadowed, 193 degs HI). Fetch faded from 40 kt from the southwest in the evening with seas 30 ft at 60S 176W. On Fri AM (8/19) southwest fetch faded from 35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 58S 164W. There's some odds of small 16-17 sec period swell resulting for Tahiti, Hawaii and CA.
South California: Swell peaking on Sun (8/28) at 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (8/29) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). On Tues (8/30) swell fading from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-211 degrees
North CA: Swell peaking on Sun (8/28) at 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (8/29) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). On Tues (8/30) swell fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 207-210 degrees
Small Southeast Pacific Gale
A tiny storm developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun PM (8/21) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building from 30 ft at 51S 128W. On Mon AM (8/22) southwest winds to be fading from 40 kts over a small area with seas 32 ft at 49S 120W. Fetch was fading from 35 kts in the evening and positioned well east of the California swell window with seas fading from 28 ft at 46S 114W targeting only Chile. Some small swell might result for California but most size was targeting Central America down into Chile.
South California: Small swell arriving later on Mon (8/29) build to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (8/30) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell continue on Wed (8/31) at up to 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone on Thurs (9/1). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
North CA: Small swell arriving on Tues (8/30) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell continue on Wed (8/31) at up to 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (9/1) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a weak low pressure system is to develop in the Western Gulf on Fri (9/2) producing 30 kt west winds and seas to 17 ft moving into the Northern Gulf on Sat (9/3) but winds fading from 25 kts and seas 16 ft and fading from there. Little no no odds for meaningful windswell to result. No other swell producing fetch is forecast for the greater North Pacific.
For California starting Thurs (9/1) high pressure is to be 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii and trying to ridge east into CA, but being held off over the north end of the state by a weak Fall low developing over coastal British Columbia. North winds from the gradient produced by the high are to be limited to 15-20 kts mainly from Monterey Bay southward offering windswell potential only for the extreme southern portion of Central CA. The low is to weaken on Fri (9/2) with the high getting purchase up into North Ca waters at 15-20 kts offering some potential to produce windswell and then building while lifting north on Sat (9/3) with 25 kts north winds over Cape Mendocino and a more normal looking pressure gradient in control offering improved odds for small windswell down into Central CA. That gradient is to start fading on Sun (9/4).
For Hawaii windswell from trades is to be the least of concern. Two tropical systems are forecast moving in close proximity of the Islands (see Tropical Update above).
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
More details to follow...
La Nina Remains Weak
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: The 2014-2016 El Nino is all but gone except for remnants in the upper atmosphere. La Nina is developing but weaker than expected.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Saturday (8/27) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and over the western Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA is on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south). Anomalies were neutral over the equatorial East Pacific but easterly over the eastern KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Moderate east anomalies were over the entire KWGA per this model suggestive of the Inactive Phase of the MJO and forecast to be slowly weaken but still present a week out on 9/4.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 8/27 a moderate Active Phase of the MJO was over the West Pacific. The Statistic model projects it fading in the West Pacific and dissipated 9 days out and turning slightly Inactive into week #2. The dynamic model depicts the same thing except the Active Phase fading just to neutral 2 weeks out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/28) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was very weak if not discernible positioned over the dateline. The forecast projects it holding position and loosing strength over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/28) This model depicts the Active Phase over the East equatorial Pacific with an Inactive Pattern developing solidly in the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to dissipate in the east on 9/7 while the Inactive Phase builds in the west tracking east and into Central America on 10/2. A neutral pattern is to set up in the West on 10/2.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern fading and tracking east over the KWGA with no real anomalies in play. A very weak Inactive Phase is to follow 9/7-9/27 offering no real anomalies either. Then another Active MJO signal is to follow 9/29 -10/15 with a more defined west anomaly wind pattern in the KWGA. Another Active Phase is forecast starting 10/30 with a stronger west anomaly pattern building. Overall the MJO signal is very weak now but is to build as we move into Fall with west anomalies taking firmer control contrary to what one would expect with La Nina in play. There no suggestion of a major pulse of east anomalies in the KWGA. The low pass filter suggests the remnants of El Nino in the Pacific are gone. At the same time low pass anomalies are over the Indian Ocean and forecast to build weakly into Oct, then start fading some.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/28) No Change - Actual temperatures are steady in the West Pacific at 30+ degs C (reaching east to 165E) and the 28 deg isotherm line reaching east to only 170W. Cooling has stabilized in the east. Warm anomalies at +1 degs rule from the West Pacific to 170W with weak negative anomalies east of there towards Ecuador. Cool subsurface waters are at depth erupting near 150W. At depth -3 degs anomalies are no longer present down 100 meters at 165W (retreating west). Peak negative temps are -2 degs. The Kelvin Wave pipeline is chocked with cold water rushing east through it. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/21 depicts a pocket of +1-2 deg anomalies building in the West Pacific to 170W. Cool water 2-3 degs below normal was under the the equator in pockets, undercutting any residual warm water above it and forming a bubble near 150W and upwelling from 120-150W but also reaching east to Ecuador. La Nina is in control of the ocean at depth, but not strongly so.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/27) No Change - The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicates a very weak cool flow is present along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Cooler waters then start building in earnest flowing west from the Galapagos over a thin stream then building in coverage/width near 110W and tracking solidly out to at least 160W with with peak temps -1.0 degs. Cool waters extend north and south from the equator about 8 degrees in the west but have contracted some to 3 degs north and south of the equator recently near and just west of the Galapagos to 115W. La Nina is in control of surface waters, but weak, with remnant El Nino warm water holding in a few small pockets 3 degs north and south of the equator in the east and everywhere north and south of 8N/S. That said, almost no warm water remains anywhere in the Nino regions directly on the equator (5 degs N and S).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/26): A neutral trend is over waters of Chile and Peru. But a thin cool stream is now extending from Ecuador over the Galapagos. And a cooling trend continues from the Galapagos and points westward with a intermixed pockets of warming and cooling water from 120W to 160W. A neutral trend is off Africa.
Hi-res Overview: (8/26) A clear La Nina cool pool is present in the Central equatorial Pacific 110W to 170W. The thin stream continues building tracking west from the Galapagos but still nonexistent along Ecuador and Peru suggestive of westward displacement. A generalized pattern of +1-2 deg above normal temps remains 4-8 degs north and south of the equator and west of 180W. Warm water off the Pacific Northwest is streaming over Hawaii looking very much like the classic Active PDO pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/28) Today's temps were trending warmer at +0.395 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (8/28) temps were trending upwards at -0.503 degs. Temps bottomed out recently at -1.0 degs near 7/21-7/26.
Comparing Stongest El Ninos in the last 50 year - ERSSTv4 'centered' data
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/28) No Change - Temps are to rise to -0.2 degs in Oct, then fall to -0.4 degs in Dec before starting to rise in Jan 2017 and neutral by Feb and +0.5 degs by April. This is very interesting.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Aug Plume depicts temps have nearly reached their peak minimum, down at -0.5 to -0.6 by Nov and holding there to Feb, then rising. This is up again from last months peak low temp of -0.7 degs and barely in La Nina territory. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Decoupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (8/28): The daily index was down some at +4.79. The 30 day average was up some at +4.55. It transitioned from negative to positive (first time in 2 years) on 5/27. The 90 day average was up some at +3.74, transitioning from negative to positive the first time in years on 7/20. El Nino is gone in all dimensions of the SOI Index now.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (8/28) Today's value was rising some at -0.78. It peaked on 3/12 at +1.57 then fell until 4/14, when it started rising again peaking 4/23 at +1.12. But it has been falling steadily ever since dropping as low as -1.5 in early Aug.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker in July than June (as expected with La NIna setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-July) are: +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.60, +1.43, +0.75 and +0.18.
The Washington EDU index (Jan-July) are: +1.54, +1.75, +2.40, +2.62, +2.35, +2.03 and +1.25.
The PDO turned from a 6 year negative run (2008-2013) in early 2014 and has been positive since then. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data suggests that could be a real possibility. We've been in the negative phase since 1998 through at least 2013 (15 years). By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table