Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 291 degrees. Water temp 77.9 (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.3 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 11.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 7.4 ft @ 15.5 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 77.5 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 13.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 8.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 316 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 269 degrees. Wind northeast 2 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 60.3 (Harvest 071), 60.6 (Topanga 103), 60.6 (Long Beach 215), 62.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.8 (Del Mar 153), 62.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 8.2 ft @ 13.9 secs from 297 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.6 ft @ 12.6 secs from 266 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 279 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 12.8 secs from 261 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 16.0 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperature 62.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 7.5 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 12.8 secs from 289 degrees. Wind east 12-16 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), E 16-21 kts San Francisco (46026), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NE 12 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp 55.2 (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 55.4 (San Francisco 46026), 54.5 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 57.6 (Monterey Bay 46092), 57.6 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (1/10) in North and Central CA surf was 2-3 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean with modest offshore winds early. Protected breaks were head high or so and lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and real clean but a little soft. In Ventura County waves were shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good to great form and clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up with good form and clean with calm winds early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high plus and lined up with decent form and clean early. North San Diego had occasional sets at chest high and lined up with good form and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 8 ft Hawaiian and sometimes a little more and lined up with marginal form and a little raw though winds were east-northeast and relatively light. The South Shore had waves at thigh to waist high and lined and very soft but clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest windswell at chest to shoulder high and warbled from modest northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (1/13) California was getting fading but still solid swell from a gale that developed over the dateline and Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/9) producing 34-35 ft seas aimed east with 28 ft seas propagating east into Sat (1/10) over the Central Gulf. Hawaii was getting generally raw swell from a gale that developed over the dateline Sat-Sun (1/10) tracking southeast producing 30-35 ft seas targeting Hawaii well with residual seas in the 20-22 ft range falling southeast into early Tues (1/13) and in close proximity to the Islands. Yet another small gale is forecast for the Dateline-Western Gulf region Tues-Wed (1/14) with 30-34 ft seas aimed east then fading Thurs (1/15) with seas 26 ft just north of Hawaii. Another stronger system is to follow on the dateline Thurs-Fri (1/16) with 37-38 ft seas falling east-southeast then fading northwest of Hawaii on Sat (1/17). And yet another is forecast developing off Japan falling southeast Sat-Sun (1/18) with 32 ft seas and fading over the dateline Mon (1/19). Another is forecast off the Kuril Islands on Tues (1/20). An improving pattern is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (1/13) the jetstream was well consolidated pushing flat east off Japan to and point north of Hawaii with winds 170 over it's length with a weak trough north of Hawaii offering some support for gale development here then lifting hard north pushing up into North Canada with a ridge over the US West Coast. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with winds fading and down to 130-140 kts early Fri (1/16) with the trough holding north of Hawaii while the ridge holds if not building over the US West Coast with the northern branch pushing hard north up into Alaska. An embedded trough is forecast in the main flow pushing off Japan tracking to the dateline Wed-Thurs (1/15) perhaps supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/17) the jet is to remain consolidated tracking from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with winds building in one pocket over the dateline on Sun (1/18) with winds to 190 kts digging out yet another trough on the dateline support gale formation there pushing east to a point north of Hawaii on Tues (1/20). But on Tues (1/20) winds to be 150 kts limited to a point over Japan with the jet showing signs of possibly splitting over the dateline and the ridge over the US West Coast possibly collapsing. Beyond a consolidated jet is to rebuild reaching east to 140W (Thurs 1/29).

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (1/13) swell was fading in California originating from a gale previously over the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below). And swell was hitting Hawaii originating from a small gale that developed on the dateline pushing southeast (see Dateline Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours 2 more gale are forecast developing on the dateline pushing east and southeast.

On Tues PM (1/13) a gale is forecast developing just east of the dateline with northwest winds 40-45 kts with seas 27-29 ft over a tiny area at 37.5N 177W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/14) the gale is to track east with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 34N 170W aimed southeast at Hawaii well. In the evening fetch is to hold at 35-40 kts from the northwest over a small area aimed southeast 800 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 27 ft at 36.75N 164.5W with 26 ft seas extending south to 31N targeting Hawaii well. On Thurs AM (1/15) the gale is to lift northeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 36.75N 160W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 37N 156W targeting California well (280 degs NCal). Fetch fading after that. Something to monitor.

Yet another gale is to develop on the dateline Thurs AM (1/15) with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas building. The gale is to fall southeast in the evening while growing in coverage with northwest winds 45 kts over a solid area and seas 29-30 ft at 42N 173.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to fall southeast Fri AM (1/16) at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 42.5N 179E aimed east and southeast. Fetch is to push east in the evening fading from 35 kts with seas 31 ft at 38.75N 173.5W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate after that.

West Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing over the dateline Wed PM (1/7) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 27 ft at 43N 180W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (1/8) northwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 46N 176W aimed east (300 degs NCal). In the evening the gale fell southeast some with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 32 ft at 45N 169W aimed east (297 degs NCal). On Fri AM (1/9) fetch fell southeast at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 43.75N 164.75W aimed east (294.6 degs NCal). In the evening fetch was falling southeast and fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 43N 156.5W aimed southeast (292.8 degs NCal). On Sat AM (1/10) west winds were lifting northeast over the North Gulf at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 47.5N 150W aimed east (305 degs NCal). Fetch is to be gone after that.

North CA: Swell fading Tues (1/13) from 5.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals Wed (1/14) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293-297 degrees

Southern CA: Swell continue Tues (1/13) fading slowly from 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft) early. Residuals Wed AM (1/14) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees

Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (1/9) a small gale started developing just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 24 ft at 43N 169.5E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (1/10) the gale was falling southeast with northwest winds 45 kts over a small area and seas building to 35 ft over a small area at 39N 174.25E aimed southeast targeting the Islands well. In the evening the gale was pushing just east of the dateline while falling southeast with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 37N 176.5W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (1/11) northwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts over a small area northwest of Hawaii with seas 26-27 ft at 34N 172W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch stalled if not back-built over the same area in the evening at 30 kts coming from the north-northwest targeting Hawaii directly with seas 22-24 ft at 30N 168W pushing southeast towards the Islands. More of the same occurred on Mon AM (1/12) with northwest winds 30 kts almost reaching the Islands with seas 20-22 ft at 27N 163W just 450 nmiles northwest of Hawaii. Fetch faded in the evening from 30 kts with seas 21 ft at 28N 160W or just 350 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/13) building to 9.5 ft @ 14 secs early (13 ft) fading some in the afternoon. Swell fading Wed (1/14) from 6.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 323 degrees

North CA: Expect sideband swell arriving early on Thurs (1/15) and at 4.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft) at sunrise and slowly fading from there. Residuals on Fri (1/16) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (1/14) north to north winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a pressure gradient sets up with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and north 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (1/15) no change is forecast with north to northeast winds 30 kts on the OR-CA border and northeast winds 10 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA with a weak surface low off the coast there. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/16) weak low pressure is to be off the Ca coast producing south winds 5-10 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA holding through the day. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/17) south winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 1-5 kts for the rest of North Ca and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (1/18) weak high pressure is to be off the CA coast with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/19) a pressure gradient is to set up with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA early and northwest 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient lift north with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (1/20) the gradient fades with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No precip forecast.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level 12,500 holding unchanged through Sat (1/17) falling to 11,000 ft Sun (1/18) holding till Tues (1/21) then falling to 7,000 ft Wed (1/20) and holding beyond. 10 day Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 0 inches and Mammoth: 0 inches. Next meaningful precipitation for CA and the Sierra is roughly forecast for 1/24.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing east of Japan on Fri PM (1/16) with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 22 ft at 40.5N 157.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/17) northwest winds are to be 35-40 kts over a decent sized area and seas 27-28 ft at 37.25N 160.75E aimed east. The gael continues east-southeast in the evening with west winds 40 kts and seas 30 ft at 34.75N 166.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (2/18) northwest winds 40 kts and seas 33 ft at 31.25N 170.5E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts over the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 30N 175.25E aimed east at Hawaii. Fetch fading Mon AM (1/19) from 30+ kts with seas 25 ft at 31.5N 177.5W aimed east. Fetch fading from 30 kts in the evening with seas fading out from 23 ft at 34N 173.75W aimed east and southeast. West swell likely for Hawaii.

Another small gale is forecast developing off the North Kurils Islands on Tues PM (1/20) with west winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 45.75N 162E aimed east.

La Nina Collapsing As a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) Pushes over the KWGA
Cool Waters Fading over NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December '25 suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific while a Kelvin Wave pushed warn subsurface waters east. In early January a strong Active MJO started producing a WWB in the far West Pacific and is likely producing a second Kelvin Wave, And Surface water temp in NINO3.4 were starting to fade. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific if not maybe a transition to a warmer pattern beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/12) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline then strong west over the rest of the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline and moderate west over the bulk of the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/13) Today moderate west anomalies were starting to build over most of the KWGA west of the dateline with east anomalies on the dateline and east of there. The forecast is for moderate west anomalies building over the KWGA reaching east to 165E delineating the start of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) and filling 60% of the KWGA if not building to strong status 1/19-1/28 9the end of the model run). If this occurs significant energy will dump in to the jetstream fueling the storm track.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/12) Currently a moderate Active MJO (wet air) was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts it sliding east on day 5 of the model run straddling the dateline, the a little east of the dateline on day 10 and almost east of the dateline on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same but with the Active Phase holding stationary or at least moving east much slower while building steadily to strong status on day 10 and 15 of the model run straddling the dateline at the last day of the model run filling the West Pacific.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/13) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving east while building steadily reaching to strong status 15 days out over East Africa. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase building steadily while noodling over the far West Pacific then stalling over the Central West Pacific and holding at moderate to strong status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/12) Today west anomalies were filling the KWGA to 170E in association with the interaction of an Equatorial Rossby Wave and the Active Phase of the MJO moving into the West Pacific. The forecast has the Active Phase pushing east reaching 160E with strong west anomalies over the KWGA holding through 1/25. West anomalies are to hold at moderate status beyond through the end of the model run on 2/9 filling the KWGA to 170E. A certified Westerly Wind Burst is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading fast and all but gone except east of 170E but with west anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. West anomalies to build to strong status 1/15 holding through 1/30 mostly filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase completely gone by 1/18. The Active Phase is to push over the West KWGA 1/20 through 2/15 with west anomalies filling the KWGA if not the bulk of the equatorial Pacific. A weak Inactive MJO is to push east into the KWGA on 2/3 holding through 4/1 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. Another Active Phase is to track east over the KWGA 3/20 holding through the end of the model run on 4/12 with weak west anomalies again building over the KWGA. And if anything east anomalies are to start setting up over the Maritime Continent on 1/24 remaining unchanged through the end of the model run. It seems like a possible pressure switch is to set up with high pressure building over the Indian Ocean and lower pressure over the dateline driven by the current Active MJO. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific at 130E and is forecast holding at this retrograded position till 1/21 then starting to ease east and pushing hard east starting 2/10 reaching 150W at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up just west of the dateline 4/1. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 155E today with 2 contours with the 2nd contour gone by 1/26 and the first contour tracking hard east starting 1/21 while collapsing east reaching 130W on 3/7 and easing east from there. Impressive.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (1/13) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 161E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west from 176W to 178W. The 24 degree isotherm was backtracking from 121W to 125W. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east with most at 145W and a finger to 125W. Cooler water was east of there to Ecuador with a pocket at -2 degs moving east from 115W (previously 135W). In all cool waters are still in control of the far East Pacific though much less strongly the last few days. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/8 reflects a far stronger change down at the thermocline (-150m) warm anomalies were pushing east to 110W with cool anomalies fading quickly east of there (previously 155W). Some form of broad warm water Kelvin Wave is pushing east. Warm anomalies were filling the West, Central and much of the East subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral (+/- 5 cms) from the dateline to 110W with a small pocket of positive anomalies at 125W. They were negative (-0.5 to -10 cms cms) from Ecuador to 110W (previously 150W).Warm anomalies were on the dateline and points west of there. -10 cms anomalies were embedded 5 degs north and south of the equator near 140W and to -15 cms in the south pocket and weakening much on the north side of the equator. It seems the remain negative anomalies were rapidly collapsing over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/8) indicates cool anomalies were dramatically losing coverage over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 108W (previously 148W). Warm anomalies were surging east to 110W (previously 158W then 150W then 125W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. But now we're beginning to think this La Nina pulse is all but gone from a subsurface temperature perspective.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/12) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 175E. But previous embedded cooler pockets have evaporated. This looks like La Nina is quickly losing control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador. the warming trend is not showing yet on this chart.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/12): Temps were warming dramatically from Ecuador to 120W and with a broad area of warming off Chile and Peru. Temp were steady elsewhere.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/13) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at -0.584 and have been rising the last 2 weeks, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/13) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.113, steady at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.8 (week of 1/7). Previously temps were -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.56 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.92 OND, -0.86 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75.
Forecast (1/13) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward at technically neutral (-0.5) late Jan and neutral (0.0) in early March and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then turning neutral in early Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Dec 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.547, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to -0.364 in JFM and 0.055 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.244 JFM and +0.643 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.251 up from -0.538 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (1/13) the Daily Index was at +8.91 but has been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was rising some at +6.74, and has been mostly steady at +3.99 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +8.21 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +7.38 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising at -1.01 Dec, -1.54 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.32 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.