BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, July 14, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (7/14) in North and Central CA surf was chest high and lined up and a bit closed out and fairly clean early but with some intermixed warble and clean with some fog. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and lined up but soft and really clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe near chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but infrequent. In Ventura County waves were knee to near thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean. Central Orange County had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and real lined up and powerful on the sets and clean but with some warble in the break. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and well lined up and a bit soft but real clean early. North San Diego had sets at chest high and real lined up if not closed out and clean. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high and pretty lined up with decent form and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at thigh thigh and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (7/14) California was getting swell from a small gale that developed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window Fri-Sat (7/5) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. Another gale developed Mon-Tues (7/8) just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf tracking northeast producing 29-31 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is propagating northeast towards HI and CA. A small gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (7/10) with 26-28 ft seas aimed briefly northeast. But after that no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. Summer has arrived.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (7/14) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast or being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (7/14) the jet was ridging hard into Antarctica south of New Zealand then lifting north over the far Southeast Pacific with winds to 140 kts forming a trough and offering limited support for gale development over the far Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the trough over the Southeast Pacific fading out late Tues (7/15) no longer supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (7/17) the jet is to be weak and heavily split over the the South Pacific with the southern branch tracking east over Antarctica offering no support for gale development. By Mon (7/21) the southern branch of the jet is to be lifting north some but still over Antarctic Ice running east on the 68S latitude line over the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (7/14) swell was hitting California originating from a small gale that developed previously in the Southeast Pacific (see Tiny Flat Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a broader gale that developed southeast of New Zealand is to be propagating northeast (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

And a tiny gale developed Wed AM (7/9) over the deep Southeast Pacific just off Antarctic Ice with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts lifting northeast and seas 28 ft at 52.5S 130.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/10) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.5S 122W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas dissipate from there and well east of the Southern CA swell window targeting only Patagonia. Very limited small swell is possible for CA and point south of there but whatever swell does arrive will be buried by the swell arriving at the same time from the South Central Pacific Gale (details below).

On Mon PM (7/14) a gale is forecast developing in the deep far Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds and seas building from 23 ft at 53S 124.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/15) 35-40 kts south winds are to persist unmoving with seas 24-25 ft at 55.5S 122W aimed north. In the evening south winds to be 35 kts lifting north-northeast with seas 26-27 ft at 55S 119.75W aimed north-northeast. On Wed AM fetch is to be tracking northeast and well east of the Southern CA swell window. Low odds of small 15 secs period swell possible. Something to monitor.

Tiny Far Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (7/4) a gale started developing over the Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 58.25S 132W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (7/5) southwest winds held at 40-45 kts aimed well north with seas 32 ft at 55.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 35 kts and moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 27 ft at 52S 118.25W aimed northeast.

Southern CA: Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

North CA: Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

South Central Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (7/6) a gale started developing southeast of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 60.5S 170W and clear of the Ross Ice Anomaly. On Mon AM (7/7) southwest winds were lifting northeast at 40 kts covering a solid area with seas 29 ft at 59S 161W and dispersing the remnants of the Ice Anomaly. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area over the Southeast Pacific with a core to 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 57S 154.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/8) the gale was diffuse over the far Southeast Pacific with a new core at 40 kts from the southwest and seas 29 ft at 51.5S 146W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas faded after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/15) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/16) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/17) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/18) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/16) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/17) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/18) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina is Gone - Its Hangover Remains
A Very Unenergetic Pattern Is In Control
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. Then 6 upwelling Cold Water Kelvin Waves traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 into March 2025 erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific setting up a Modoki La Nina. But then in April 2025 weakly warm water surged east an filled the Equatorial West Pacific and was building into the East Equatorial Pacific today ushering in ENSO Neutral Conditions. But the atmosphere was still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/13) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light to modest east over the far East Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/14) Today modest to moderate west anomalies were reaching east to 160E filling 60% of the KWGA and moderate to strong east anomalies were east of there. This pattern is to basically hold with minor fluctuation through 7/24 with the split point between the west and east anomalies holding. But west anomalies are to then pushing east to the dateline at the end of the model run on 7/30 with east anomalies fading east of there. It seems a change is occurring.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/14) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 176W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 161W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 5 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 180m and running east continuous across the equatorial thermocline building to +2 degs in the East Pacific down 78m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates neutral to slightly warm anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to 95W in the East Pacific on the thermocline 100-150 meters down reaching east the whole way across the Pacific and erupting in pockets east of the Galapagos. And very warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. And weak warm anomalies were filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator and weakly positive in the east and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 170E. Negative anomalies at up to -10 to 15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 160W and 130W and -20 cms 7 degrees south of the equator at 130W. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/7) the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12. Warm anomalies were filling the West and Central Pacific building in a wave pushing east on the equator reaching to 95W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated nor have been since 4/20. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/13) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps filling the West and East Equatorial Pacific a mix of weakly cool and warm pockets in between from the dateline to 120W or filling the NINO3.4 area. Warm anomalies extended up to 15 degrees north and south of the equator. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. This looks like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with cooler waters from the 170E and points east of there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/13): Temps were cooling in pockets from 90W to 120W otherwise neutral across the rest of the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/14) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising today at +0.039 falling to -0.080 a2 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/14) Today's temps continued falling to -0.295 after being steady at -0.065 s7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at 0.1 on July 9. Previously temps were 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.53 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (7/14) - Temps to hold at 0.00 degs into mid- July then are to start falling August reaching down to -0.50 degs in Nov, then rising back to neutral in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.45 degs. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern biased cool holding through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to -0.067. Temps to slowly fall to -0.266 in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.147 NDJ then rising some to +0.140 at the end of the model run on FMA. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.363 NDJ rising to -0.307 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/14) the Daily Index was positive at +1.05 and positive 7 days prior, negative the previous 3 days, then generally positive the previous 15 days, negative 6 days before that, toggling around neutral 5/30-6/13, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +1.90 but has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +1.18 and on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling in June (2025) at -2.51, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table