BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, March 15, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (3/15) in North and Central CA surf was waist high or so and weakly lined up and soft and mushed and warbled early. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and soft and mushed and warbled early,. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and weakly lined up and clean but with some underlying warble from tide and wind outside the bay. In Ventura County the surf was waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but looking alot like windswell. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined up with decent form and clean but with some surface lump. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and decently lined up with good form and clean but a bit soft. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up if not a bit closed out and real clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest high at top spots and weakly lined up with poor form and chopped and warbled with brown water and a complete mess. The South Shore had set waves at head high and weakly lined up and chopped from southwest winds and a mess. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell with waves waist high and clean from brisk southwest wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (3/15) California was getting fading southern hemi swell from a gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific Tues-Thurs (3/5) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast mixed with locally generated northwest windswell at exposed breaks. Another gale developed Fri-Mon (3/9) tracking east from a point south of New Zealand tracking to the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas initially 37-38 ft fading to the 33-34 ft range later in its life, Sideband swell is radiating northeast. And another gale developed in the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (3/11) with 28 ft seas aimed well northeast. Up north no swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred with no real swell in the water tracking towards CA or HI. Looking forward a small gale is developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Sun-Mon (3/16) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed a bit west of the Islands possibly setting up sideband swell for Hawaii. And another is forecast mid-way from Japan to the dateline Tues (3/17) with 28 ft seas remaining stationary aimed southeast possibly targeting Hawaii but from a long ways away. After that nothing is forecast. The seasonal transition seems well underway, and much earlier than expected ,likely erasing hopes for some major change in the North Pacific. And nothing is forecast for the South Pacific other than whatever swell is already in the water tracking north. We're lost in no-mans land.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (3/15) the jetstream was split with most energy in the southern branch pushing east off Japan over the dateline building to 150 kts in one small pocket just northwest of Hawaii forming a trough there supporting mainly weather impacting the Islands. East of there the jet lifted hard northeast and way pushing into British Columbia with winds in the 150 kt range producing weather there. The northern branch was very weak with winds 60 kts tracking generally through the Bering Sea. In all there was not support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the same basic pattern is forecast but with the trough northwest of Hawaii fading out and a large split developing on the dateline with alot of wind energy tracking north up over the Western Bering Sea then falling back south rejoining the main flow at a point north of Hawaii, with the consolidated just again tracking up into British Columbia. No real troughs or support for gale formation is forecast. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (3/19) the jet is to remain well split with 2 streams running parallel to each other off Japan the whole way to the Central Gulf with winds 120 kts off Japan fading to 80-90 kts in the east, then consolidating while tracking hard northeast up over Vancouver Island. This pattern is to hold through Sun (3/22) with 2 weak streams running parallel the whole way across the North Pacific impacting BC and CA offering nothing. As weak as it can get for the time of year.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (3/15) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California. A cut off gale was circulating on the dateline producing 23 ft seas targeting Japan and another was off japan producing 25 ft seas also targeting Japan. No swell is being generated targeting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thurs AM (3/12) swell was fading in California from a storm previously over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another swell was tracking northeast from a gale that previously tracked east from a point under New Zealand (see New Zealand Gale below). And yet a third is tracking northeast towards only Hawaii associated with a small gale that was previously southeast of New Zealand (see Small New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours remnants of a gale previously over the dateline are to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Sun PM (3/15) producing northeast winds at 35 kts with seas 22 ft at 40N 167.5W somewhat targeting Hawaii. On Mon AM (3/16) northeast winds to be 35-40 kts over a small area 1100 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with seas 25 ft at 38N 165.5W aimed southwest. In the evening fetch is to fade while falling south from 30 kts with seas 23 ft at 35N 164W aimed south-southwest just barely targeting at Hawaii. By Tues AM (3/17) fetch is to be gone. Sideband swell possible for the Islands.

Oahu: Low odds of small swell arriving on Wed (3/18) building to 5.6 ft @ 13 secs mid-AM (7.0 ft). Swell fading out on Thurs (3/19) from 4.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 degrees

Southeast Pacific Storm
On Mon AM (3/2) a tropical system was falling southeast fast from a point east of North New Zealand turning extratropical. By Tues AM (3/3) it stalled over the Central South Pacific with fetch starting to developing in it's west quadrant at 40 kts over a tiny area trying to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening it turned into a full blown southern hemi storm with 50-55 kts southwest winds and seas building from 38 ft at 52.25S 134.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (3/4) the storm was over the Southeast Pacific and rapidly building with 50+ kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas to 39 ft at 51.25S 130.5W aimed northeast and in the CA swell window. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds continued slowly easing east with seas 38 ft at 50.5S 126W aimed northeast targeting the US and all of Central and South America. On Thurs AM (3/5) the storm downgraded to gale status while moving to the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with southwest winds fading fast from 40 kts and seas 36 ft at 51S 118.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening at 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 30 ft at 51S 109/5W aimed northeast and well east of the Southern CA swell window but targeting Mexico and South America well. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Sun (3/15) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees

North CA: Dribbles on Sun (3/15) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (3/6) a gale developed while tracking east from under New Zealand with 45 kts west winds over a solid area aimed due east and seas 37 ft at 58.75S 173.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 59.25S 173W aimed east. On Sat (3/7) west fetch was fading from 40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 35 ft at 58.75S 158.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch faded from 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 61S 145W aimed east. On Sun AM (3/8) fetch reorganized at 40 kts lifting east-northeast with seas 34 ft at 56.25S 138.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 53.25S 128.75W aimed east-northeast. The gale faded Mon AM (3/9) with seas fading from 29 ft at 50.5S 120.75W aimed northeast.

Southern CA: Swell building on Sun (3/15) to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell builds through the day Mon (3/16) to 2.7 ft @ 17 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (3/17) from 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (3/18) from 2.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (3/19) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 192 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/15) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds through the day Mon (3/16) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell steady on Tues (3/17) at 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (3/18) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (3/19) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 207 moving to 189 degrees

Small New Zealand Gale
On Tues PM (3/10) a small gale developed southeast of New Zealand producing south winds 40 kts and seas building from 25 ft at 48S 163.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (3/11) the gale held stationary with south winds 40-45 kts with seas 28 ft at 49.25S 164W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch dissipated from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44.5S 155W aimed northeast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/17) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Wed AM (3/18) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) mid-day. On Thurs (3/19) swell is to be fading from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (3/20) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 moving to 186 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/20) building to 1.2 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (3/21) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/22) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/20) building to 1.2 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (3/21) at 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/22) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing Mon PM (3/16) off Japan with northwest winds 35 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 36.5N 158W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (3/17) the gale is to build with northwest winds 40 kts while holding position with 27 ft seas at 38N 158.5E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to build to 40-45 kts over nearly the same area with seas 29 ft at 42N 160E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii but from a long ways away. On Wed AM (3/18) fetch is to be fading while falling southeast from 40 kts with seas 23 ft at 41.5N 157.75E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to fade from 35 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 41.5N 157.25E aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Collapsing As a 2nd Kelvin Tracks East - 3rd Active MJO Developing
Cool Waters Fading over NINO3.4
in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina returned to the Pacific for a second year. But the SOI held generally neutral into December '25 suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. And in Nov westerly anomalies associated with the Active Phase of the MJO took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warn subsurface waters east. In early January a strong Active MJO started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing another Kelvin Wave pushing east. And the first Kelvin Wave started erupting over the Galapagos early Feb 2026. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific if not maybe a transition to a warmer pattern beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/14) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East Equatorial Pacific and very strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline fading to modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the dateline fading to near neutral over KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/15) Today it appears a full pressure pattern switch has occurred over the Maritime Continent and the West Pacific with east anomalies over the Maritime Continent (starting 3/9) and moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA (starting 3/8). The forecast continues this wholesale switch with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the entire Maritime Continent from here forward till the end of the model run on 3/31 with moderate west anomalies filling the area from 110E to the dateline from here forward. Hard to believe this switch has actually occurred and no change is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (3/15) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was easing east to 166E. The 29 degree isotherm was stationary at 174E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 175W to 179W. The 26 deg isotherm was 50 m deep at 140W. The thermocline was thickening at 130W falling down to 77m and pushing into Ecuador 29m down with 25-28 deg temps building on top. Warm anomalies were +3 degrees in the West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) extending from the far West Pacific into Ecuador at +2 degs. No cooler water was present at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/9 reflects this strong change down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and +2 degs anomalies over the entire thermocline and +3 deg pockets or more over the entire area breaking the oceans surface near the Galapagos and Ecuador. Warm anomalies were filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0 to +5 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador an radiating north and south along the South American Coast. A Kelvin Wave has hit. -10 to -15 cms anomalies were embedded now only south of the equator near 140W and significantly eroded over the past week. .
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/9) indicates cool anomalies were gone. Warm anomalies were surging east to Ecuador (80W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. Then starting December 1 warm anomalies and a Kelvin Wave started pushing east and are now effectively filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific at +1.0-1.5 degs.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/14) In the latest image the last fading remnants of the previous La Nina cool pool were fading on the equator between 130W to 180W. Previous embedded cooler pockets are gone and with N-S extent of this area fading fast. This looks like La Nina is quickly losing control at the surface. And warming waters were building markedly along Ecuador out to the Galapagos reaching west on the equator to 120W while simultaneously building along the coasts of Chile and Peru and north up to Central America. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Cooler waters were moderating between 175W to 100W. Temp were warming from Ecuador and Peru west to to 125W. The warming trend is showing a bit more pronounced now on this chart too.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/14): Temps were warming markedly around the Galapagos out to 140W over the Equatorial Pacific. There was no cooling temps on the equator.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/15) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +1.148 (since 2/19) and have been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/15) Today's temps were falling slightly at -0.296 after reaching -0.214 (2/12) after slowly rising since 1/22, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at -0.1 (Feb 18 & 25, March 4). Previously temps were -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March.
Forecast (3/15) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, to +0.6 in late April and building significantly after that to +2.30 Nov, and +2.0 at the end of the model run (Dec). The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp rising to +1.75 in Nov and +1.65 in Dec. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then it turned neutral in early Spring 026 and is off tot he races from here forward.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at -0.111, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to +0.138 in MAM and +0.594 in MJJ and 0.759 OND. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to +0.273 MAM and +0.825 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.759 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are at ENSO neutral and moving to maybe weak El Nino in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (3/15) the Daily Index was falling at -9/19 (one day) otherwise generally positive since 2/7, positive 1/28-2/6. It had been negative 1/22-1/27. It had been rising 1/10-1/21 but had been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was rising at +14.16, and +9.98 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +10.30 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +7.05 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in Feb 2026 at -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table