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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, February 9, 2025 3:30 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.8 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 2/10 thru Sun 2/16
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Progressive Gale Pattern Forecast
More Rain and Snow Forecast for California

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, February 9, 2025 :

  • Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 295 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp NA degs
  • Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 8.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 8.5 secs from 299 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-25 kts. Water temperature 55.8 degs, 55.2 (Harvest 071), 57.9 (Topanga 103), 57.9 (Long Beach 215), 57.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.7 (Del Mar 153), 58.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.6 ft @ 6.8 secs from 316 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.9 ft @ 17.4 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 9.9 secs from 253 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.6 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.6 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 8.7 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperature 58.1 degrees.
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 321 degrees. Wind northwest 10-14 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 8-10 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and WSW 10 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), 52.5 (SF Bar 142), 53.4 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.3 (Soquel Cove S).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (2/9) in North and Central CA waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up but unorganized and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and clean but with some local warble in the water. In Ventura County surf was thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and clean but with a fair amount of warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and clean and soft occasionally breaking on the outer bar. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were occasionally waist to near chest high with decent form and real clean but also real weak. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high band lined up with decent form and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and real clean early. The South Shore had some knee to thigh high sets and clean but real weak. The East Shore was getting northwest wrap around swell at waist high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (2/9) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell mixed with background swell originating from a small gale previously on the dateline. Hawaii was getting only the dateline swell. An even smaller gale developed on the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/7) producing 29 ft seas aimed east targeting mainly Hawaii. And yet another developed off Japan tracking east to the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/7) producing a tiny area of 33 ft seas targeting mainly Hawaii again. Then on Sun (2/9) a far broader gale developed west of the dateline with seas building to 28-30 ft aimed east offering swell for the Islands and background energy for the US mainland. A local gale is forecast for the Central Gulf tracking east on Wed-Thurs (2/13) producing 31 ft seas providing hope for California. And another gale is forecast developing over the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/14) tracking east with with 29 ft seas targeting Hawaii peaking early Sat (2/15) with 31 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. And more is to follow. Increasing odds for rideable surf looks likely.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (2/9) the jetstream was consolidated pushing flat east off Japan on the 33N latitude line with winds to 210 kts reaching a point just east of the dateline but with only a weak generalized trough north of it just west of the dateline offering some limited support for gale formation. The jet dissipated at 165W with a weak and diffuse pattern east of there offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to hold while extending east with winds 180-190 kts and a broad trough developing just west of the dateline offering good support for gale formation Tues-Wed (2/12). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (2/13) the trough is to push east just west of the dateline and moving into the Gulf of Alaska early Sat (2/15) but far weaker than previously. And starting Thurs (2/13) another trough is forecast building in the Eastern Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale formation moving over the California coast on Fri (2/14) likely producing weather there. By Sat-Sun (2/16) the jet is to be fully consolidated tracking flat east from Japan to 170W running east of the 31N latitude line with a new trough building on the dateline supporting gale formation with residual energy pushing east up to the US West Coast. A decent pattern looks to be setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (2/9) small swell from then first in a series of small gales that developed over the dateline was hitting California (see First Small Dateline Gale below). A second small gale developed over the dateline with energy from it fading in Hawaii and tracking towards California (see Second Small Dateline Gale below). And a third developed right behind targeting mainly Hawaii (see Thurs Small Dateline Gale below). And a far broader system was developing west of the dateline (see Broad West Dateline Gale below).

 

First Small Dateline Gale
On Tues AM (2/4) a small gale started developing just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft at 39.75N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening the gael tracked east with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 33 ft at 39.75N 177.5E aimed east and southeast at Hawaii. Fetch was fading Wed AM (2/5) just east of the dateline from 35-40 kts with seas 33 ft at 40N 176.25W aimed east. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 25 ft at 40N 170W aimed east. Small swell to result.

North CA: Expect swell building Sun (2/9) to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) and masked by local windswell. Swell fading some Mon (2/10) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees.

 

Second Small Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (2/6) another small gale developed on the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 40N 178.5E aimed east. In the evening the gael tracked east with 40+ kts west winds and seas 29 ft at 39N 173W aimed east and southeast. On Fri AM (2/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts while lifting northeast with seas fading from 26 ft up at 44N 168W aimed east and northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Oahu: Expect swell fading Sun (2/9) from 4.2 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell dissipating Mon (2/10) from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/10) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (2/11) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals Wed (2/12) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

 

Third Small Dateline Gale
Another gael developed Thurs PM (2/6) well west of the dateline producing a tiny area of 45 kts northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 38.75N 163.75E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (2/7) northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 37N 170.5E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 23 ft at 37.5N 177E aimed southeast. The gael fading after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/10) building to 4.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (2/11) from 3.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Low odds of background swell arriving on Wed (2/12) building to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/13) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees

 

Broad West Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (2/8) a new broader gale started to develop off South Japan producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 32N 152E aimed east. In the evening a broad fetch of west winds were building from Japan to the dateline at 35-40 kts from the west with seas 26-27 ft at 33N 170E and 20+ ft seas filling the West Pacific. On Sun AM (2/9) west winds were 35-40 kts filling the area from Japan over the dateline to 170W with seas 29 ft at 35.25N 164.75E but 20+ ft seas from Japan to the dateline aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30-35 kts positioned mainly west of the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 36.5N 170.75E but 20+ ft seas still filling the area from Japan to 170W. On Mon AM (2/10) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts between Japan and 170W with seas fading from 27 ft at 36.5N 177.5E. Residual fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts and seas fading from 22 ft at 35N 165E to 173W aimed east and southeast. Decent swell is possible.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival late on Tues (2/11) building to 5.8 ft @ 15 secs late (8.5 ft). Swell rebuilding Wed (2/12) afternoon to 5.5 ft @ 16 secs (8.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/13) from 4.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (7.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (2/14) fading from 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri PM (2/14) from 293 degrees but buried in far larger locally generated swell (see Local CA Gale below)

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Mon AM (2/10) high pressure is to be in control with north to northwest winds forecast at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts off the coast of the rest of North and Central CA but 10 kts nearshore. In the afternoon north-northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts off the coast of the rest of North and Central CA and 10-15 kts nearshore. No precip forecast.
  • Tues AM (2/11) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds rapidly fade at 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts limited to south of Monterey Bay. Rain developing for North and Central CA in the evening and snow for the Sierra.
  • Wed AM (2/12) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA early and northeast 10 kts for San Francisco and west 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain for North Ca from Pt Arena southward and all of Central CA down to LA and snow for the Sierra. Rain limited to Monterey Bay southwards and all of Southern CA in the afternoon. Snow fading in the afternoon for the Sierra.
  • Thurs AM (2/13) low pressure and a front moves up to North and Central CA with south winds 25-30 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for most of Central CA early. In the afternoon the front pushes through the coast with southwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA mid-AMy continuing through the day and evening reaching south to San Diego late afternoon. Snow for the Sierra mid-AM building to heavy status through the afternoon and evening.
  • Fri AM (2/14) remnant low pressure fades along the state with west winds 20 kts early for North CA and southwest winds 15+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon west winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain fading through the day for the entire state. Solid snow for the Sierra early fading through the day and gone by evening.
  • Sat AM (2/15) south winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North Ca and northwest 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino.
  • Sun AM (2/16) weak low pressure is to be off the Pacific Northwest with southwest winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts south of there to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 52, 56, 50, and 40 inches. A little late on Tues (2/11) then meaningful accumulations Thurs-Fri (2/13-14).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 5,500 ft or less 2/11-2/12 briefly rising to 6,500 ft early 2/13 then quickly falling to 5,300 ft and holding. Freeze level building to 9,000 ft 2/15-2/16 falling to 5,500 ft 2/17 then up to 10,000 ft 2/18.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 65.75S 142.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (1/29) southwest winds were 45 kts aimed well north and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 131W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 122.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (1/30) southwest winds were lifting north at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 57.5S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track northeast with 30 kts winds and moving out of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 52.5S 113.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade after that. Another possible southern hemi swell to result reaching up into Southern CA with luck.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (2/9) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles Mon AM (2/10) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a busy pattern is forecast.

Local CA Gale
A small gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf on Wed AM (2/12) with northwest winds building from 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 42N 150.75W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 40 kts with the gale falling southeast towards North and Central CA and seas 31 ft at 41.5N 144.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/13) northwest winds to be 40 kts off Cape Mendocino with 30 ft seas at 40N 139.25W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 30-35 kts just San Francisco with seas 26-27 ft at 37.5N 133W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate just off San Francisco Fri AM (2/14) with seas 20-22 ft impacting Pt Reyes. Larger raw local swell is likely to result. Something to monitor.

 

On Wed PM (2/12) another small but solid gale is forecast building just east of the dateline with 40+ kts northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 37N 179W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM 92/13) northwest winds to be building in coverage at 40 kts solid with seas 26 ft at 37.5N 174W aimed southeast well at Hawaii. In the evening west to northwest winds to be 40 kts in the far Western Gulf with seas 29 ft at 37N 172W aimed east and southeast. Fetch holds while pushing east Fri AM (2/14) at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 35N 167W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast some at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 37.75N 160.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/15) fetch is to be fading while lifting east-northeast in the Central Gulf with seas fading from 28 ft at 39N 152W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

And yet 2 more small gales are forecast beyond on the dateline and off Japan.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2024/25 = 3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/8) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/9) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA and moderate west anomalies were over the entrance to the West Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding over the dateline at moderate to strong status slowly retrograding west as west anomalies retrograde from the entrance to the West Pacific, gone on 2/16 with east anomalies filling the KWGA beyond.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/8) Currently a moderate Active MJO pattern (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) filling the KWGA on days 5, 10 and 15 of the model while moving slowly east with a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) building over the Maritime Continent and poised to enter the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase not quite as strong.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/9) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Atlantic split between weak and moderate status. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase reaching Africa at modest strength 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/9) This model depicts a modest Active Phase (wet air) over the West Pacific almost filling the KWGA. The forecast has it tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/24 then dissipating as the Inactive Phase (dry air) pushes across the KWGA 3/1 through nearly the end of the model run on 3/16 with a weak Active trend setting up the last day of the model run on 3/21.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/8)
Today the Active Phase (contours) were mostly filling the KWGA but with strong east anomalies in control. Active Phase contours are to be dissipate 2/17 with east anomalies mostly in control. Inactive Phase contours to push over the KWGA 2/23 through the end of the model run with strong east anomalies in control of the KWGA 2/15 through the end of the model run on 3/8.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Active Phase filling the western half of the KWGA. The Active Phase is to track east through 2/23 with weak east anomalies holding. The Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to take over 2/17-3/13. The Active Phase and west anomalies are forecast moving from the entrance to the West Pacific to filling the Pacific 3/20 and beyond. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to develop 4/4 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/9 but west anomalies holding unchanged filling the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/12. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/6 and the second 4/25. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal. This is not as hoped for but not horrible.The CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 169E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of solidly cooler anomalies at -3 degs present down 100 meters between 160W to 100W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/2 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 165W east to 90W at up to -4.0 to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 115W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 170W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/2) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 180W with -10 cms from the Galapagos to the dateline and -15 cms building in one pocket at 115W and a broader one at 135W to 165W. It appears the cool pool is building but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/2) the cool pool was fading in intensity while building in coverage from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/8) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific and strongest from 140W to 175E. Warm anomalies were over the East and West Pacific. this continues to look like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/8): Temps were warming solidly over the Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 140W and near neutral west of there. And the trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/9) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising markedly at -0.125 after falling to -0.962 (1/28) after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/9) Today's temps were rising steadily at -1.004 after falling to -1.5 (1/25) after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST
Anomalies were -0.8 week of 1/29 and steady. Previously temps were -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data
is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (2/9/25) - Temps to hold at -0.75 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.25 in April 2025, neutral in July and +0.25 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the same time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/9/25) the Daily Index was positive at +28.10 and positive the last 25 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising hard at +10.48 and has been rising the entire last 30 days, in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was rising some at +9.53 and building into La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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