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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 23, 2022 2:23 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/20 thru Sun 6/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Building in CA
Central South Pacific Swell Pushing Northeast

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, June 23, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 14.0 secs from 198 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.6 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.4 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 18.9 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 17.0 secs from 208 degrees. Wind southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs, 67.1 (Topanga 103), 65.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.9 (Del Mar 153), 68.5 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 10.1 secs from 305 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 8.1 secs from 271 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 18.8 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 16.3 secs from 225 degrees. Water temp 68.7 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 6.4 ft @ 9.4 secs from 316 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was south at 2-6 kts. Water temp 53.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.0 (Pt Reyes 46013), 52.2 (46026), 55.0 (SF Bar 142), 57.9 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/23) North and Central CA had set waves at chest to shoulder high and a little warbled and sloppy but with mostly clean conditions but heavy fog. Protected breaks were chest high with decent form and clean with some intermixed warbled and soft with heavy fog. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and glassy and lined up with good form but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and warbled and crumbled and not rideable but with no local wind. Central Orange County had sets at maybe waist high and lined up when they came but warbled and pretty messy from northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe head high but nearly chopped from northwest winds if not bordering on chopped and not very rideable. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and cleaner but still not glassy. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting decent sized swell with waves chest to shoulder high on the sets and fairly clean with good form but inconsistent. The East Shore had east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/23) California was getting background energy from a gale that developed over the Tasman Sea Thurs-Mon (6/13) producing 26-32 ft seas aimed northeast. But of more interest was swell that was fading in Hawaii and just starting to tickle the buoys in California from a gale that formed from the remnants of the Tasman Sea Gale over the far Southwest Pacific Tues-Wed (6/15) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And another gale was developed in the Central South Pacific Mon-Thurs (6/23) producing mostly 26-30 ft seas with one portion up to 36 ft aimed northeast. No other swell producing weather systems are forecast for the next 7 days.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/23) no swell of interest was in the water and
no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Thurs AM (6/23) Tropical Storm Celia was 240 nmiles south of Puerto Vallarta Mexico tracking west northwest with winds 45 kts. Celia to slowly build reaching hurricane status with winds 65 kts on Sat AM (6/26) 240 nmiles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Baja still tracking west-northwest holding for 24 hours then slowly losing strength while continuing on a west-northwest heading. Low odds for small swell resulting for Southern CA if all goes as forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Fri (6/24) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward early and northwest 5-10 kts south of there. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Bodega Bay northward and northwest 5-10 kts south of there. Windswell fading.
  • Sat (6/25) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward early and northwest 5-10 kts south of there. Cape Mendocino fetch is to be gone in the afternoon with northwest winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell production forecast.
  • Sun (6/27) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
  • Mon (6/28) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North and Central CA early building to 15 kts in the afternoon.
  • Tues (6/29) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA.
  • Wed (6/30) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast.
  • Thurs (7/1) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road 12,500 ft today building to 14,000 ft on 6/25 and holding beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/23) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing weakly north over the Central South Pacific with winds at 70 kts forming a weak trough offering some limited support for low pressure development there. East and west of there the jet was riding south over Antarctica offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the Central South Pacific trough is to slowly lose energy through Fri (6/17) offering less support for low pressure development while tracking east to the Southeast Pacific likely offering little in terms of support for gale development. And a ridge is to start building under New Zealand on Fri (6/24) and tracking east down at 68S covering all the South Pacific on Sun (6/26) actively suppressing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is only to get reinforced modestly with east winds at 100 kts blowing through it down at 65S continuing through Thurs (6/30) offering no support for gale development. There's some indication a trough might try and develop over the Southeast Pacific later Thurs (6/30) but that is very uncertain at this early date.


Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the Tasman Sea was fading in California. Of more interest was swell from a gale that developed from the remnants of the Tasman Sea Gale southeast of New Zealand which has produced yet more swell that is fading in Hawaii and starting to show at the buoys in California (see New Zealand Gale below). Also swell as behind that originating from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

New Zealand Gale
On Monday PM (6/13) the Tasman Sea gale pushed into the far Southwest Pacific with a broad area of southwest winds at 35-40 kts generating seas of 31 ft at 51.5S 164.25E aimed up into the California swell window but partially shadowed by Auckland Island and not yet quite at Hawaii. On Tues AM (6/14) the gale was free and clear with 45 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast and seas building to 35 ft at 50.75S 173E. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds continued plodding east with 39 ft seas at 50.5S 177.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/15) southwest winds were fading from 35+ kts with seas 35 ft at 49.5S 168.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading out from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft over a large area at 49.25S 159.25W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell fading some on Thurs (6/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Fri (6/24) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/25) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) mid-day. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) later. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees

 

Central South Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (12/19) a small gale started to build southeast of New Zealand with 35-45 kt south winds with seas building. In the evening a broader fetch of south winds developed at 45-50 kts with seas building from 29 ft over a tiny area at 48S 161.75W aimed north. Southwest fetch to continue Mon AM (6/20) at 45 kts with seas 36 ft over a semi decent sized area at 45.75S 157W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 43.25S 149.25W aimed northeast. A broad fetch of secondary winds developed Tues AM (6/21) at 35-40 kts from the south and southwest with seas 25 ft at 50S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds built in coverage at 35+ kts aimed north with seas 27 ft at 51.5S 158.5W aimed north. On Wed AM (6/22) south fetch was holding at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.25S 155.5W aimed north. South fetch was fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 53S 152W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/26) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (6/27) at 2/1 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (6/28) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Perhaps a second pulse to arrive on Wed (6/29) building to 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/30) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/1) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/28) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). On Wed (6/29) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 1.7 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/2) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-206 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/29) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192-202 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Massive Pool of Warm Water Building Subsurface
Cool Water Losing Coverage -
Models Suggesting a La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected slowly fading out into Fall. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/23) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA centered at the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status on 6/25 centered at 160E then moving east to the dateline and holding at strong status through the end of the model run on 6/30.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/22) A moderate Inactive MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it holding on day 5 of the model run then fading to near neutral on day 10 of the model run and neutral on day 15 with the Active Phase trying to push into the far West KWGA. The dynamic model projects the same thing but with the Active Phase moving fully into the KWGA on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(6/23) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean and is to push east to the Maritime Continent very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase at modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/22) A modest Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was filling the Equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east over Central America on 7/12. A weak Active Phase is to track east into the KWGA on 7/7 moving to the Central Pacific and into the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/1. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/22) A neutral MJO Phase was over the KWGA today but with weak to modest east anomalies locked over the dateline. East anomalies are to hold over the dateline for the length of the model run while slowly building to moderate plus strength starting on 7/6 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/20. But still no proper MJO signal is forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(6/23 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was over the entire KWGA with weak east anomalies in control. The forecast depicts weak east anomalies continuing over the KWGA through 7/25 with the Inactive Phase fading on 7/9 then rebuilding some 7/24 before fading on 8/4. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop in earnest starting 7/26 pushing through the KWGA through 9/11 with west anomalies filling half the KWGA (to 150E) and east anomalies east of 150E. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop in the west KWGA on 8/26 but with west anomalies holding west of 150E through the end of the model run on 9/20. A pattern is set up with west anomalies locked from 150E and points west of there and east anomalies east of there and are to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/25 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding to 160E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 7/29 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. Suspect that is a temporary setback with a rebuild to the east starting in mid-Fall. That said, east anomalies are to remain centered at about 150W and not moving further west into the the KWGA beyond 165E in Sept. We are still waiting for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E (where it is now).

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 177W. The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 132W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east connecting to a pocket of +3 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 110W and poised to reaching the surface there if not breaching it already at 135W and 119W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W at -3.5 degs C and steadily getting compressed east while weakening and discharging to the surface at 90W. A possible massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 110W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a last stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific and east wind anomalies at the surface. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -10 cms were limited to the area directly over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were surging east to 135W on the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs limited between Ecuador and 95W. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east to 115W. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building in the the west pushing east and squeezing cool water in the east to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/22) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A string of pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador west to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/22): Cooling temps were indicated from Ecuador to 105W. Neutral temps were west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (6/22) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned in a thin string on the equator from 100W to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/23) Today's temps were more or less steady at -1.492 and have been at -1.5 or greater since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/23) Today's temps were steady at -0.428 after rising to rising at -0.414 degs (6/19) and have been rising from -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps have been rising steadily since 5/15. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/23) - T
emps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.60 degs mid-July falling to -0.95 in Oct-Nov, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.15 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.80 degs Oct-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.441 in Dec and -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/23) the daily index was negative at -1.06 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling to +14.94 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.99 today beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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