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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 9, 2016 3:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/6 thru Sun 6/12

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Final SPac Gale Fades - 4 Swells Tracking Northeast
More Projected Long Term

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

On Thursday, June 9, 2016 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 17.2 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 6.3 secs from 254 degrees. Wind southeast 4 kts. Water temperature 62.2 degs. At Santa Barbara swell was 2.8 ft @ 6.2 secs from 265 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.8 ft @ 6.3 secs from 266 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 3.2 ft @ 6.6 secs from 282 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 5.6 secs with northwest windswell 2.8 ft @ 5.9 secs. Wind northwest 14-18 kts. Water temp 57.7 degs.


    Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys

Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/9) in North and Central CA surf was knee to thigh high at top spots and textured with northwest winds and fog early. At Santa Cruz surf was near flat with rare knee to thigh high sets and clean. In Southern California up north surf was near flat (1 ft) and clean. Down south sets were maybe thigh high and heavily textured from south wind. Hawaii's North Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves waist high with northeast texture running through it. The South Shore was small with waist high sets at top breaks and clean with a little southern hemi energy starting to tickle the buoys. The East Shore was chest high and chopped from northeasterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
A summer time pattern is in control of the North Pacific with no swell production forecast. For the southern hemi a primer gale developed under under New Zealand on Thurs (6/2) with 28 ft seas aimed northeast and swell from that system is just starting to reach Hawaii. The first real gale developed on Fri (6/3) with 32-34 ft seas aimed northeast with a second one developing right behind it on Sat-Sun (6/5) with seas 36 ft seas aimed northeast and follow-on energy Monday at 30-32 ft aimed north. Yet a third one started developing in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/8) with seas building to 38 ft. A long run of small to moderate swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast. After that a bit of a break to follow till Mon (6/13) when a new system pushes east under New Zealand with 39 ft seas and a second with up to 40 ft seas is projected on Wed (6/15). Something to monitor.

Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (6/9) no swell producing fetch is occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours.

The local California coastal pressure gradient is to start building on Fri (6/10) producing a fetch of 20-25 kt north winds over the North and Central Coasts centered near San Francisco and then lifting north centered over Pt Arena on Sat-Sun (6/12) with north winds at 30 kts but with a possible eddy flow (south winds) for San Francisco southward on Sunday. Modest short period north windswell possible (see QuikCASTs for details).

For Hawaii, east-northeast trades are blowing at 15 kts driven by high pressure north of the Islands resulting in some windswell along easterly shores. And this situation is to hold if not build starting Sunday (6/12) as the high eases east and increases coverage of those trades.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/7) a light wind pattern continued with a generally weak pressure pattern in control. Light winds are expected early Wednesday but high pressure is to start building later in the day focused on Pt Conception with north winds to 20 kts late afternoon there and 15 kts north of there up to North CA. Thursday high pressure is to start ridging into the coast from a point north of Hawaii with north winds 15 kts over North and more of Central CA early building to 20-25 kts by late afternoon. 20-25 kts northwest winds to continue Friday, Saturday and Sunday (6/12) for North and Central CA with Southern CA remaining protected. More of the same on Monday but the gradient starting to fade some Tuesday with 20-25 kts north winds confirmed to Pt Conception as low pressure moves towards the area from the Northeast Gulf.

South Pacific

On Thursday AM (6/9) the southern branch of the jet was running east well south of New Zealand down at 71S with winds only 90 kts and continuing that way to the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. But at 140W the jet lurched north with winds building to 120 kts forming a trough and offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet fell south again building to 150 kts forming a ridge and actively suppressing gale development well off Chile. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the southeast is to quickly collapse on Fri (6/10) while the ridge in the west is to sweep east through Sun (6/12) continuing the lockdown of gale development over the the entire South Pacific. Beyond 72 hours a zonal flow is to set up pushing just south of New Zealand starting Mon (6/13) with a pocket of 150 kt winds developing under New Zealand on Tues (6/14) possibly starting to set up an environment more favorable to gale development on Tuesday under and east of New Zealand into Thurs (6/16). Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday AM (6/9) mult.cgie swells were in the water originating first from a Primer Gale southeast of New Zealand, then a stronger one (Gale #1) and yet a stronger one (Gale #2) with a third one (Gale #3) directly behind (details below for all gales).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell production is forecast.


Primer Gale
On Thurs AM (6/2) a primer gale pushed under New Zealand generating 35 kt southwest winds and 27 seas at 55S 178E. Fetch moved east-northeast in the evening with 35 kts winds continuing aimed northeast and 28 ft seas at 53S 173W. This gale rapidly faded from there. No swell relative to North Hemi locations is expected but it will serve to rough up the ocean surface in preparation for more gale behind.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/9) at sunrise at 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (3 ft) and building through the day, peaking at sunset at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (6/10) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

South CA: Small background swell to arrive on Sun (6/12) with swell pushing 2.1 ft @ 17 secs later in the day (3.0-3.5 ft). On Mon (6/13) swell to continue at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft with set to 4.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (6/14) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees

North CA: Small background swell to arrive on Sun (6/12) with swell pushing 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later in the day (3.0 ft). On Mon (6/13) swell to continue at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees


New Zealand Gale #1
On Fri AM (6/3) a solid fetch of 45 kt west southwest winds developed covering a large area under New Zealand with seas building to 31 ft at 60S 165E aimed east-northeast (196 degs HI, 211 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and barely unshadowed by Tahiti). The fetch lifted northeast in the evening with 40-45 kt southwest winds holding and seas 34 ft at 56S 180W (192 degs HI, 210 degs SCal and barely shadowed, 209 degs NCal and barely shadowed). The gale tracked east-northeast on Sat AM (6/4) but was fading with winds barely 35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 52S 169W (187 degs HI, 209 degs SCal and barely unshadowed, 207 degs NCal and shadowed). A rapid fade followed. A decent pulse of swell is expected to result for Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (6/10) with swell period 18 secs and size ramping up from 2.1 ft @ 18 secs (3.8 ft with sets to 4.8 ft) mid-day. Swell to start peaking at sunset with pure swell 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell still solid on Sat (6/11) at sunrise as period hits 16 secs at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.7 ft with sets to 4.6 ft). Swell continuing into Sun (6/12) fading from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: Focused on 196 degrees

SCal: Expect swell arrival expected on Sun (6/12) near 2 PM with swell 1.7 ft @ 18 secs (3.0 ft) and building. Swell building Mon (6/13) peaking at 2.4 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Residuals fading Tues (6/14) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 209-212 degrees

NCal: Expect swell arrival expected on Sun (6/12) near 5 PM with swell 1.7 ft @ 18 secs (3.0 ft) and building. Swell building Mon (6/13) peaking at 2.4 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Residuals fading Tues (6/14) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 209-212 degrees


New Zealand Gale #2
Yet another gale developed under New Zealand on Sat AM (6/4) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building. In the evening 45 kt southwest winds were moving east under New Zealand with seas building from 33 ft at 55S 180E (197 degs HI, 210 degs NCal and unshadowed, 211 degs SCal and shadowed). The fetch fragmented some Sun AM (6/5) with patches of 40-45 kt southwest winds and 36 ft seas at 55S 173W (188 degs HI, 206 degs NCal and shadowed, 207 degs SCal and unshadowed) embedded in a broad area of 30+ ft seas aimed northeast. 40 kt southwest winds to hold in the evening with 32 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 54S 167W (187 degs HI, 205 degs NCal and shadowed, 208 degs SCal and unshadowed). Fetch is to be fading on Mon AM (6/6) from 35 kts with seas fading from 32 ft over a solid area aimed more north-northeast at 51S 167W (182 degs HI, 207 degs NCal and shadowed, 209 degs SCal and unshadowed). Residual seas faded in the evening from 30 ft at 45S 162W. Solid swell is possible and overriding swell from Gale #1 (above).

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/11) with period 19 secs and size building through the day, pushing 2.2 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun AM (6/12) peaking early at 2.5 ft @ 17 secs (4.2 ft with sets to 5.3 ft). Swell solid on Mon AM (6/13) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.7 ft with sets to 5.8 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/14) from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival mid-day Mon (6/13) with size tiny and period 19-20 secs pushing 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building Tues (6/14) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (6/15) from 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206-211 degrees focused on 208 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival mid-day Mon (6/13) with size tiny and period 20+ secs pushing 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building Tues (6/14) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (6/15) from 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205-210 degrees focused on 207 degrees


Southeast Pacific Gale #3
Yet another gale developed well southeast of New Zealand on Tues AM (6/7) with 40 kt southeast winds starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 22 ft. In the evening a broader area of 40 kt south-southwest winds developed with seas building to 30 ft over a broader area at 56S 162W aimed northeast (182 degs HI, 200 degs NCal and unshadowed, 203 degs SCal and unshadowed). On Wed AM (6/8) a small area of 45-50 kt south winds developed embedded in a broad area of 40+ kt south winds generating a tiny area of 36 ft seas at 55S 151W aimed north (178 degs HI, 196 degs NCal, 198 degs SCal). In the evening the fetch lifted northeast still at 40-45 kts aimed a little more to the northeast with seas to 40 ft over a tiny area at 51S 146W targeting California down to Peru (195 degs NCal, 196 degs SCal). On Thurs AM (6/9) 35-40 kt south to southwest winds covered a broad area with seas 36 ft at 46S 140W (192 degs NCal, 195 degs SCal). Fetch is to be fading in coverage from there at 35-40 kts over a tiny area while tracking east with seas fading from 30 ft at 43S 134W. More swell to result targeting Hawaii and all points east of there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (6/14) with period 18+ secs building through the day to 2.2 ft @ 17 secs (3.7 ft with set to 4.6 ft) at sunset. Swell continues on Wed (6/15) at 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/16) from 2 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 178-183 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/15) building to 2.6 ft @ 20 secs (5 ft with sets to 6.5 ft) mid-day. Swell continues solid on Thurs (6/16) at 4.0 ft @ 17-18 secs (7.0 ft with sets to 9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-203 degs focused on 200 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/15) building to 2.3 ft @ 20 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.8 ft) mid-day. Swell builds on Thurs (6/16) to 3.3 ft @ 18-19 secs (6.0 ft with sets to 7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192-200 degs focused on 197 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the local California pressure gradient is to continue producing north winds over North California at near 30 kts Mon-Tues (6/14) focused near Pt Arena but with no eddy flow forecast and the fetch falling south and weakening Wed (6/15) at 20+ kts moving to near Pt Conception on Thursday. Windswell possible early in the period then fading for all of California.

For Hawaii on Monday (6/13) trades are to be blowing solidly over a large area at 15-20 kts from the east to northeast extending from just off California the whole way to Hawaii and holding into Tuesday. But by Wed (6/15) the high is to retrograde and trades become more confined to waters just east of the Islands and more so on Thurs (6/15) with windswell fading some.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's suggestions that yet another series of gales are to push under New Zealand starting on Mon (6/13) with the first having 45 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 61S 172E, then quickly fading. A second gale is forecast further north on Wed (6/15) with 45 kts west winds just under New Zealand generating 38 ft seas at 53S 172E. In the evening winds to build to 50 kts pushing more northeast with seas to 41 ft at 52S 169W. On Thurs AM (6/16) fetch to be fading from 45 kts over a small area with seas fading from 38 ft at 50S 154W. It's still a long ways till then and much can change, but the trend looks favorable.

More details to follow...

Transition to La Nina Continues

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).Overview: The 2014-2016 El Nino is fading out. La Nina is emerging.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (6/8) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific but weakening over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA). Anomalies were generally neutral but with weak west tendencies in the KWGA and points east to 150W.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Very weak west anomalies were over the KWGA and are forecast slowly fading to neutral status by 6/11 and then turning easterly and holding into 6/16. Solid westerly anomalies are well east of the KWGA (120W - south of California) and forecast to hold till 6/15, then fading. These winds offer nothing.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 6/8 a weak Inactive MJO signal was over the far West Pacific. The Statistic model projects this weak Inactive Phase building east of the dateline over the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing, only stronger (to moderate strength 1 week out) then fading. No enhancement of the jetstream is expected from the MJO.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/9) The ECMF model indicates no MJO signal was present. The forecast projects the Active Phase emerging in the East Indian Ocean migrating to the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and only at modest strength. The GEFS model depicts the same thing.
40day Upper Level Model: (6/9) A new Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the far West Pacific and is to track east reaching Central America on 7/4. A very weak Active Phase to develop in the West Pacific 6/24 easing east through 7/19.
CFS Model beyond 1 week (850 mb wind): This model suggests the Active Phase of the MJO was over the dateline with weak west anomalies in.cgiay offering minimal to no support for enhancing the jetstream. The model depicts the Active Phase continuing to produce weak west anomalies through 6/15. After that the MJO is to be weak with no real anomalies forecast. Neutral anomalies if not weak east anomalies are forecast 7/4-9/7. The low pass filter suggests the remnants of El Nino are shifting east and are now south of Hawaii (rather than in the KWGA) and offering nothing to enhance the jetstream and are to be gone by 9/2 positioned south of California.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/9) Actual temperatures are retreating daily. A pocket of 29-30 deg temps were building in the far West Pacific with the 28 deg isotherm line steady now at 159W. No El Nino subsurface anomalies remain. Neutral anomalies rule from the West Pacific to the east to 150W with weak negative anomalies east of there. Cool subsurface waters are at depth erupting between 120W-150W with -3 degs anomalies reaching east at depth to 120W (steady). The Kelvin Wave pipeline has been r.cgiaced with a cold river rushing east. But it appears to be not reaching Ecuador, but rather is westward di.cgiaced. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 one last weak pocket of +0.5 deg anomalies is confined to a shrinking area 170E to 170W. Cool waters at 3-4 degs below normal were in.cgiay under the entire width of the equator, undercutting any residual warm water above it and upwelling over a broad area of the East equatorial Pacific. La Nina has begun.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/8) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicates cooler than normal water continues over the equator region with negative anomalies along the coast of Peru (building some compared to days previous) pushing north and then extending west from Ecuador over the Galapagos building west to 157W peaking at -1.5 degs over a good portion of that area now. La Nina is firmly in control of surface waters, though remnant El Nino warm water is 3 degs north and south of the equator. No warm water remains anywhere in the Nino regions on the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): A neutral trend is along Chile and Peru with cooler than normal waters from the Galapagos west out to 160W, but less so than days previous. The mirror image cooler trend has redeveloped in the Atlantic tracking west from Africa and strongly so, suggesting a cool pulse is coming for the Pacific. Temps are increasing along the California coast due to slackening of high pressure driven northwest winds. The PDO warm pool is holding solidly from Oregon out to Hawaii and west from there to the Philippines.
Hi-res Overview:
(6/8) The El Nino signal is dissipating. A clear La Nina cool water pool is tracking firmly from Ecuador and building in width on the equator from west of the Galapagos out to near 165W, but is somewhat weaker today than days past. A generalized pattern of +1-2 deg above normal temps remains 3 degs north and south of the equator and west of 160W. Cooler water is over the dateline in the North Pacific with warm water off the Pacific Northwest streaming over Hawaii looking very much like the classic Active PDO pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were steady at +0.703 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (6/9) temps are holding for the moment but still in negative territory at -0.164 degs attributable to a developing La Nina cool pool.

Comparing Stongest El Ninos in the last 50 year - ERSSTv4 'centered' data

Pacific Counter Current:  As of 6/6 the current was moderately but continuously from the east on the equator from 90W to 150E. Anomalies were stronger still from the east over the same area. There were no pockets of west anomalies indicated. La Nina is firmly entrenched based on this data, which is normal for this point in the El Nino lifecycle.

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/9) indicates temps on a steady downward trajectory falling to -0.75 degs early July then moderating but still falling into Nov, easing down to -1.2 degs in early Dec then slowly rising in Jan 2017. This is solid La Nina territory but it's up from the -1.5 and -1.25 degs indicated even a few weeks ago.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-May Plume depicts temps falling steadily from here forward, down to -0.7 by Sept then starting to drift higher to -0.6 in February, See chart here - link. 

Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):   
Southern Oscillation Index (6/9): The daily index was rising hard at +19.00. The 30 day average was rising at -0.52, but still generally transitioning from negative to positive for the first time in 2 years on 5/27. The 90 day average was rising from -6.68. El Nino was still evident in the 90 day average, but even that will soon be a distant memory.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation): (6/9) Today's value was rising some from -0.34. It peaked on 3/12 at +1.57 then fell until 4/14, when it started rising again peaking 4/23 at +1.12. But it has been falling steadily ever since.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues solid. Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-May) have been +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.60, and +1.45. The Washington EDU index for the Jan-April period indicates +1.54, +1.75, +2.40 and +2.62. April's value was the highest it's been since 1941. The PDO turned from a 6 year negative run (2008-2013) in early 2014 and has been mostly above +1.5 all of 2015. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data suggests that could be a real possibility. We've been in the negative phase since 1998 through at least 2013 (15 years). By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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