Thursday, December 1, 2016
- Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 9.7 secs from 74 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.1 secs from 258 degrees. Wind north 2 kts. Water temperature 62.1 degs. At Ventura swell was 2.6 ft @ 6.4 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.6 secs from 222 degrees. At Camp Pendleton swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.1 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 250 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 14.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 10.4 ft @ 10.2 secs from 302 degrees. Wind northwest 14-18 kts at the buoy. Water temp 56.8 degs.
46006, 46059, Hi-res Buoys
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (12/1) in North and Central CA North Gulf windswell was in control with waves about 8-9 ft on the face at exposed breaks and pretty lumpy though local wind was calm. At Santa Cruz some of this swell was wrapping in producing waves in the waist high range and clean with calm wind early. In Southern California up north surf was flat and clean. Down in North Orange Co set waves were maybe waist high and gutless but clean. In San Diego windswell was producing waist to chest high sets and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting north wrap-around windswell with waves maybe waist high and clean early. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high and chopped from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Sideband windswell originating from nondescript weather systems in the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska was hitting California. Of more interest is swell from a storm that tracked east Mon-Wed (11/30) from the Kuril Islands over the dateline with seas to 43 ft aimed east, but fading as it reached the Western Gulf of Alaska. Remnants of this system are to redevelop in the extreme North Gulf late Thurs (12/1) with seas rebuilding to 40 ft. And a small system is to follow off the North Kurils on Sat-Sun (12/4) with seas to 32 ft but fading before reaching the dateline. After that, the storm track is to evaporate.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday AM (12/1) the jetstream was reasonably consolidated tracking east off Japan with winds to 150 kts fading over the dateline while falling into a gentle trough, then lifted gently east-northeast over the Gulf of Alaska with winds rebuilding to 160 kts and poised to push into the Pacific Northwest with a small .cgiit developing 800 nmiles off the North CA coast drawing a thin stream southward around Hawaii and then into Baja. In all there was limited support for gale development in the dateline trough. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to fade as it pushes towards the Western Gulf and gone by early Sat (12/3). A weak trough is to try and develop over the Kuril Islands on Fri (12/2) lifting northeast but winds fading in it down to 80 kts on Sun AM (12/4) offering little if any support for gale development. Likewise winds are to weaken significantly over the rest of the jet with a .cgiit developing near the dateline but then quickly reconsolidating just 400 nmiles east of there. Still no clear support for gale development is indicated. trough. Beyond 72 hours that .cgiit is to grow in coverage on Mon (12/5) filling the core of the North Pacific cutting the legs off any support for gale development. Still a pocket of 160 kts winds are to be developing over Japan trying to push east but making zero progress into Thurs (12/8) with the .cgiit flow over the dateline firmly in control. At that time the northern branch of the jet is to be tracking hard north pushing well north of the Bering Sea while the southern branch falls south down to 25N. residual energy from the northern branch is to join weak energy from the southern branch in the Eastern Gulf near 40N 140W then limping into the Oregon-California border offering no support for gale development. In all, this .cgiit is to shut the storm track down completely. It looks like the Inactive Phase of the MJO is the likely culprit, stealing energy from the jet and fueling the .cgiit, and is not unexpected.
On Thursday (12/1) swell from a storm that developed in the far West Pacific tracking east is poised to hit Hawaii (see West Pacific Storm below).
Over the next 72 hours remnants of the West Pacific Gale (below) are to start redeveloping in the Northern Gulf on Thurs AM (12/1) with northwest winds building from 40 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 24 ft at 44N 163W. In the evening those winds are to rapidly develop building to 55 kts from the west while tracking northeast with seas building to 34 ft at 50N 149.5W (311 degs NCal). On Fri AM (12/2) 50 kt west winds are to be poised on the North Canada coast with 40 ft seas at 53.5N 140W and well outside the NCal swell window targeting only Oregon northward. Something to monitor. Swell arrival in North CA likely late Saturday afternoon peaking overnight from 301-315 degrees.
And another gale is forecast developing over the Kuril Islands on on Fri (12/2) with perhaps limited 35-40 kt west fetch pushing over the open Northwest Pacific with 26 ft seas at 46N 156E in the evening. By Sat AM (12/3) 40-45 kt west fetch is to finally become exposed over a small area off the Northern Kurils with seas 32 ft at 48.5N 160E. In the evening 35 kt west fetch is to be tracking northeast with 30 ft seas at 49N 167E targeting Hawaii obliquely. Fetch is to fade Sun AM (12/4) from 30 kt with seas fading from 26 ft at 49N 173E. Something to monitor.
West Pacific Storm
A new system started developing over the Southern Kuril Islands on Mon AM (11/28) with west winds building from 40-45 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening 50 kt west winds were blowing with 35 ft seas building at 45N 164E targeting Hawaii decently (316 degs HI, 303 degs NCal). Fetch faded in coverage some Tues AM (11/29) at 45-50 kts with seas building to 43 ft at 45N 171E aimed east and targeting both Hawaii and the US West Coast (319 degs HI, 301 degs NCal). In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the west on the dateline with seas fading from 40 ft at 45N 178E (315 degs HI, 300 degs NCal). On Wed AM (11/30) residual fetch from the gale was holding at 35-40 kts from the west with seas dropping from barely 34 ft at 46.5N 174W (333 degs HI, 300 degs NCal). This system is to be gone by the evening with winds fading from 35 kts and seas fading from 29 ft at 51N 165W. A decent pulse of swell should result for Hawaii with small and decayed energy from the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs PM (12/1) building to 2.7 ft @ 20 secs at sunset (5.5 ft). Swell peaking at sunrise on Fri (12/2) at 5.3 ft @ 17 secs (8.5 ft) holding decently through the day. Swell fading Sat AM (12/3) from 4.5 ft @ 14 secs (6.0 ft). Residual energy dropping off Sun AM (12/4) from 4.5 ft @ 12 secs (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 316-319 degrees.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (12/1) high pressure was trying to start ridging into the Pacific Northwest with a summer like gradient setting up over Cape Mendocino at 25-30 kts and 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception but mostly off the coast. The gradient is to build on Friday AM with 20-25 kt north winds nearshore over Cape Mendocino but over outer waters further south with nearshore winds north-northeast 10-15 kts. Saturday the gradient is to fade some but still north winds at 20 kts are to be over outer waters (except along the coast of Cape Mendocino) of North and Central CA with a lighter wind pattern nearshore at 10 kts. On Sunday (12/4) high pressure is to build in more with north winds 15 kts early building to 20+ kts in the afternoon along the coast from Pt Conception northward building to 25 kts on Monday and 20 kts Tuesday (12/6). Water temps to be.cgiummeting caused by the north wind and resulting upwelling. Finally on Wed (12/7) low pressure off the Pacific Northwest is to di.cgiace the high with a light winds flow taking root and a front from the low moving into extreme North CA in the evening with south winds 25+ kts late. Rain moving south to Pt Arena late. Thursday (12/8) the front is to stall over San Francisco with southwest winds 15-20 kts from there northward. Rain from the Golden Gate northward. A light flow is expected for the remainder of Central CA.
No swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing fetch of interest was occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
A small gale is to develop in the extreme North Gulf on Sat Am (12/3) producing 45 kt northwest winds over a small area with seas 26 ft at 54N 145W (324 degs NCal and outside the swell window). Fetch is to fade in the evening from 40 kts with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 54N 140W targeting mainly Vancouver Island northward (328 degs NCal and east of the swell window). On Sun AM (12/4) 35 kt northwest fetch is to be holding with seas 22 ft at 51N 138W (325 degs NCal and still shadowed). It is to fall southeast in the evening with fetch 30 kts from the northwest and seas fading from 20 ft at 48N 135W (322 degs and still barely shadowed). This system is to be gone after that. This system is to be mainly a swell producer for the Pacific Northwest and points north of there.
Another weak gale is forecast developing just off the Pacific Northwest on Wed-Thurs (12/8) producing 35 kt northwest winds and 18-20 ft seas, but moving inland and out of the CA swell window quickly. Low odds of anything resulting.
Nothing else of interest is forecast. Sure looks like a quiet pattern is to be setting up driven mainly by a .cgiit jetstream flow aloft and the Inactive Phase of the MJO.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
Inactive MJO Holds
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: The 2014-2016 El Nino is all but gone except for remnants in the upper atmosphere. La Nina is developing but weaker than expected.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (11/30) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. The KWGA is on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south. Anomalies were weak over the equatorial East Pacific but moderate to strong easterly over the KWGA. These easterly anomalies are attributable to La Nina and are modulated by the MJO.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Weak east anomalies were modeled over the far West KWGA and west anomalies were over the dateline/East KWGA today. The forecast suggests this pattern is to hold for the coming week, with both the east and west anomalies fading some over the period. The development of some westerly anomalies is a welcome relief. The first real easterly wind burst from this La Nina started on 9/23 and is to continue holding for the foreseeable future. We are thinking it will not end anytime soon but rather will just pulse, stronger at times, then weaker, attributable to La Nina, and modulated by the MJO.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 11/30 a bare minimal Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the far West Pacific over the Western KWGA. The Statistic model projects it gone 5 days from now with a weak Active Phase of the MJO moving from the Indian Ocean east to the far West Pacific 10 days to 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO in the West Pacific easing east over the next 2 weeks reaching the dateline. So the two models are contradicting each other.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/1) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was weak and indiscernible and is to make no change over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model depicts the same thing initially but forecast to build some into the East Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model: (12/1) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO tracking over the dateline moving into Central America on 12/26. A neutral pattern to follow. And another weak Inactive Phase is to develop behind that in the West Pacific on 12/21 tracking east to the dateline into 1/10. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (12/1) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO signal over the KWGA with modest east anomalies developing It is to hold through 12/25 with weak east anomalies holding. Supposedly the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop and move into the west KWGA starting 12/25 with neutral to weak west anomalies developing and holding into 1/26. A neutral pattern and no MJO signal to follow into late Feb. Overall the MJO signal is projected to be very weak and this pattern is to hold as we move deeper into Winter. We suspect La Nina is having the effect of dampening the MJO, and producing weak east anomalies in the KWGA but not producing an outright bias towards the Inactive Phase of the MJO. Likewise the MJO is serving to dampen the effects of La Nina when in the Active Phase.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/1) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the West Pacific at 30+ degs C (reaching east to 159E) and the 28 deg isotherm line reaching to 178W and steep, suggesting a hard break between warm water in the west and cool water in the east at depth. This is expected with La Nina in.cgiay. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +1-2 degs rule from the West Pacific to 170W. Neutral to weak negative anomalies are east of there to Ecuador at no more than -1.0 degs, and static at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 depicts this pocket of of cooler water -1-2 degs below normal in the East Pacific. La Nina is in control of the ocean at depth, but not strongly so and weakening.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Negative anomalies at -5.0 cm rule the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and 5 degs north and south. This is an upgrade from months past where anomalies were up to -10 cm and suggest La Nina is loosing it's grip at depth.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/30) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a thin cool pool of water along the immediate coast of Peru building up along Ecuador. An invigorated cool stream then develops from the Galapagos west continuously along the equator out to 120W with temps dropping to -1.75 degs. A weaker and less cool footprint is present west of there out to 155W. La Nina is loosing some control of surface waters of the Central Pacific, but is starting to make inroads into the East Pacific. La Nina is moving into it's mature phase.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/29): A warming trend continues along Chile and Peru. A strong cooling trend is developing from Ecuador to the Galapagos out to 120W. West of there a neutral trend was exhibited with pockets of warming and cooling waters present as they have been for months along the equator from the Galapagos to 140W and then fading out beyond. The pattern in the Central Pacific is nowhere near as prominent as weeks and months past but it is building and pronounced in the East.
Hi-res Overview: (11/29) A La Nina cool pool is present over the equator from the Galapagos west to 170E a bit broader south of Hawaii but pretty prominent now in the East Pacific too. La Nina is building in coverage to the east, likely in it's mature phase.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/1) Today's temps are falling slightly at +0.087. We're 5 days coming off a warm peak.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (12/1) temps were rising rapidly at -0.263. Temps are oscillating warm to cool and back in 2-3 week cycles within a range from -0.3 to -1.0 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/1) This model suggests La Nina held from July thru Oct 1 in the -0.55 deg range rising to -0.5 on Nov1. The forecast has temps slowly warming from here forward with temps at -0.45 in early Dec and -0.3 degs Jan 1 rising slowly from there to -0.2 degs in March 2017 and turning neutral in June. This is a weak downgrade from previous runs but still indicates the peak of La Nina is over and returning to normal next summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Nov Plume depicts temps have reached their peak minimum at -0.6. A slow increase in temps is forecast thereafter to -0.4 in Jan 2017 and neutral in April, starting to turn weakly positive after that to +0.1 in June. This is consistent with last months forecast and barely in La Nina territory. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (12/1): The daily index is falling some at -5.35 today. It was well negative for most of October, then turned weakly positive for most of Nov other than a deep negative dive near 11/17. The 30 day average was rising at 0.19. This suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO is in control now driving the SOI upwards. The 90 day average falling slightly +2.99. La Nina is trying to hang on, but not strongly.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (12/1) Today's value was rising slightly at -0.92. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94 the deepest it had been so far in this event suggesting La Nina was getting better established. But that is changing now, moving in a better direction and suggesting La Nina is fading.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Oct) are: +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.59, +1.42, +0.76, +0.12 then falling to -0.90, -1.09 and -0.88 in Oct.
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Oct) are: +1.53, +1.75, +2.40, +2.62, +2.35, +2.03, +1.25 +0.52, +0.45 and +0.56 in Oct.
The PDO turned from a 6 year negative run (2008-2013) in early 2014 and has been positive until Aug 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data suggests that could be a real possibility. We've been in the negative phase since 1998 through at least 2013 (15 years). By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table