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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 19, 2009 9:30 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.9 - California & 2.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/16 thru Sun 11/22
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm West Of Dateline
Western Gulf to Become Active

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (11/19) North and Central California was getting a healthy dose of local Gulf swell with waves double overhead and top spots pushing near triple overhead on the biggest set waves. Light winds and glassy conditions, though things were a bit warbled. Southern California was getting a good dose of Gulf swell now with waves chest to head high with top spots having sets 1-2 ft overhead but with north winds coming up in the afternoon up north through still pretty clean down south. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting a little bit of the Gulf sideband swell with waves in the chest high range, but not looking very impressive at all. North wrapping trades were in effect adding a lot of texture.  The East Shore was still getting east windswell with waves head high or a little more and chopped with hard east winds in effect. The South Shore was thigh to waist high with east trades still in control winds making for textured conditions. 

The forecast for North and Central CA is for south winds and rain on Friday with lingering swell in the 3-4 ft overhead range but totally hacked. New swell is to be hitting early Saturday with surf 11-12 ft but still a bit jumbled and dropping to 8-9 ft on Sunday with a little better conditions. Southern California is to see the same pattern with swell.still pushing head high at the better breaks with most in the chest high range Friday and with a little more north in it.  Then a new pulse of Gulf swell arrives for Saturday at head high to maybe 1 ft overhead, then trickling down Sunday at head high.  Better conditions here as compared to north of Pt Conception (as usual). The North Shore of Hawaii is see the last of the Gulf sideband swell Friday with waves waist high. Maybe a little more north swell for Saturday at head high late.  Then on Sunday swell from across the dateline is to start hitting reaching 10-11 ft on the faces late  and pushing near 12 ft on the face early Monday.  So some semi-real swell is in the cards. The East Shore is to have more east-northeast local windswell at head high to 1 ft overhead  through Saturday then dropping a little Sun/Mon down to chest high and holding on Tuesday (11/24). The South Shore is out of the picture for the winter. 

Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is definitely moving into the Active Phase with a building gale pattern expected to be taking over the North Pacific (as if it already hasn't).   A solid but small storm has built off the Kuril Islands with 55 kt west winds and is tracking northeast, bound for the northern dateline region Friday with up to 40 ft seas forecast, pushing longer period swell towards Hawaii initially (see above) and then the US West Coast early next week. And the models continue to suggest a solid storm forming in the Western Gulf pushing east Mon-Wed (11/25) with decent seas projected.  But 'projected' remains the operative word here. And another one is forecast behind that. In all it looks like Fall is finally starting.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (11/19) the North Pacific jetstream had a good conglomeration of wind energy over Japan at 160 kts pushing towards the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians, then diving hard south in the Western Gulf with near 190 kts winds there flowing into a solid trough, then pushing east into Washington. Good support for a gale off Kamchatka and more-so in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska.  A bit of a weak split in the jet continued from the dateline east into Baja, but not having too much of an effect. Over the next 72 hrs the split point is to slowly push east to a point just east of Hawaii on Sunday (11/22) while the pool of wind energy over Japan expands east on the 40N latitude pushing almost flat, reaching to a point north of Hawaii with winds still 160 kts. A bit of a trough is looking to start building in the Western Gulf then offering support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the split point is to push into Central Ca on Thurs (11/26) with a single strong consolidated flow push almost flat from Japan into the US West Coast.  embedded in that flow is to be a leading trough moving through the Gulf of Tues/Wed (11/25) capable of supporting solid gale development with a stronger one forecast behind that on Thurs/Fri (11/27). This looks like a classic El Nino/Active MJO Phase  jetstream flow. 

At the surface on Thursday (11/19) a storm was pushing towards the dateline (see Dateline Storm below). In addition a gale was still circulating off the Pacific Northwest (see Second Gulf Gale below). Swell from the First Gulf Gale was still hitting Central and South CA. And high pressure north of Hawaii at 1024 mbs was continuing to generate north-northeast trades at 20 kts and easterly windswell along east facing shores there.  Over the next 72 hours the above 2 system are to be the main focus of attention with high pressure still trying to hang on east of Hawaii generating 20 kt east winds and windswell there, but heading down late in the period.


Second Gulf Gale
Another gale was starting to build in the Eastern Gulf on Tuesday PM (11/17) with an elongated fetch of 35 kt northwest winds at 45N 150W originating almost from the dateline with seas on the increase. By Wed AM (11/18) 30-35 kt west winds were consolidating off the Pacific Northwest at 42N 145W with 21 ft seas at 42N 138W pushing southeast fast.  In the evening  more 30 kt west winds were out at 42N 135W with 23 ft seas modeled at 42N 135W.  Thursday AM (11/19) more 30-35 kt fetch is forecast at 40N 135W with 20 ft seas south of the 296 degree path into Central CA at 40N 140W.  More 30 kt fetch is to follow in the evening out at 40N 142W with 20 ft seas pushing southeast from 40N 130W. Friday AM (11/20) residual 30 kt northwest winds are forecast at 37N 130W with 20 ft seas fading offshore at 38N 135W down to 19 ft in the evening at 38N 130W. This still remains a mix of projected and actual data, so some degree of fetch is actually occurring.  But in all this looks weaker than what was projected a few days ago.  And with winds on 30 kts, and located so close tot he Norther CA and Oregon coast, whatever swell results will be rather raw, with a fairly short period too (13 secs) given the rather meager wind (30 kts). Still another decent push of rideable jet raw swell is likely, along with alot of rain and winds for the Pacific Northwest and Central CA coast on Friday, clearing out for Saturday.  

Rough data suggest for Central CA pure swell of  8.0 ft @ 13 secs is to start arriving Friday (11/20) and getting a little more consistent through the day, then building to 8.0-8.5 ft @ 13 secs with seas 11.5 ft @ 13 secs resulting in 11-12 ft faces early evening and holding into early Saturday.  Swell slowly settling down from there. Swell dropping to 7.3 ft @ 12 secs Sunday AM (8-9 ft faces) and heading down. Given the real local nature of this system, exact details with a clean start and end of the swell are not possible. Swell is to be raw and jumbled.  Swell Direction: 288-298 degrees

Expect swell to arrive in Southern CA starting about 10 PM Friday and peaking about 10 AM Saturday (11/21) with pure swell at 4 ft @ 13 secs and seas to 5 ft @ 13 secs inside the Channel Islands resulting in surf of 5.0-5.5 ft (faces) .  Swell to hold through the day dropping some overnight , but still 3.0-3.5 ft @ 12 secs with seas to 4 ft @ 12 secs on Sunday (11/22)  resulting in surf of 3.5-4.0 ft (faces).
Swell Direction: 292-302 degrees 


Dateline Storm

A decent storm started building off the Kuril Islands on Wednesday AM (11/18) with winds confirmed at 55-60 kts at 476N 164E aimed due east or right up the 304 degree path to North Ca and 30 degrees east of the 319 degree path to Hawaii.  Seas were on the increase. Wednesday PM those winds held, confirmed at 55-60 kts at 48N 170E and lifting northeast pushing energy directly down the 305 degree path to Central California and 30 degrees east of the 325 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building. This system reached just west of the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians Thursday AM (11/19) with a solid fetch of 50-55 kt west winds were modeled at 50N 170E pushing directly down the 308 degree path to Central CA and down the 327 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 37 ft at 50N 172E. The core of this gale was moving into the Bering Sea.  In the evening 45-50 kt west winds are to be holding stationary at 51N 173E pushing 45 degrees east of the 330 degree path to Hawaii and barely clear of Aleutian interference down the 306 degree path to Central CA. Seas forecast at 42 ft at 50N 175E. Friday AM (11/20) 45 kt west winds are to hold just barely south of the Aleutians at 51N 175E with 38 ft seas at 50N 180W barely reaching clear down the great circle path to Central CA and shadowed by the Aleutians for any break north of say Pt Reyes. Remnant 30 ft seas and 40 kt west winds are forecast from this system Friday PM at 50N 173W
then dissipating. Longer period moderate size swell is likely already pushing towards Hawaii for Sunday (11/22) with small to moderate sized northwesterly swell for the US West Coast early to the middle of the following week.  

Hawaii:  Expect swell arrival on Sunday (11/22) with swell 6.9 ft @ 17 secs at sunset   (11-12 ft faces) and holding pretty well overnight as period eases down some.  Swell 7.8 ft @ 15 secs (11-12 ft faces) sunrise Monday (11/23) and slowly settling down through the day.  Leftovers at 6.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early Tuesday (9 ft faces) and slowly fading. Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM relatively calm winds were in play as a new front from the Second Gulf Gale was building, pushing closer to the coast. Friday (11/20) south winds and rain from this front are to move onshore down to Pt Conception, then clearing overnight with a ridge of high pressure pushing into the Central CA coast on Saturday likely making for north winds and chop from Pt Reyes southward over the Channel Islands. But another small gale is to quickly build just off Oregon early Sunday with rain pushing as far south as maybe Monterey Bay through the day, though winds remaining light behind the front. Some degree of modest high pressure and 15 kt north winds are forecast off Central CA Mon/Tues (11/240 though probably limited nearshore, then totally dissolving Wednesday and Thursday as a storm pushes east. High pressure and north wind to follow.       
 

Tropics
With the MJO moving into the Active Phase, net tropical activity is expected to head up some starting 11/20, though it is late in the season. This will be a true test of this El Ninos strength.

As of now no tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface no swell producing fetch was occurring nor forecast to occur. 

Fourth New Zealand Gale
On Thursday (11/12) another small gale formed under New Zealand producing a tiny fetch of 40 kt southwest winds aimed well at Hawaii from 55S 170E and tracking northeast while fading resulting in a tiny area of 26 ft seas.  This held through the evening with 27 ft seas initially at 55S 180W fading to 25 ft at 52S 175W in the evening. . Hawaii to see some more background southern hemi swell with period 14 secs on 11/21.

   
    

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 the models suggest a whole string of small storms developing off Kamchatka and sinking gradually southeast towards the Gulf.  The first is forecast starting Monday AM (11/23) in the Western Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds at 40-43N 165W aimed a bit south of the 287 degree path into Central CA and about 40 degrees east of the 330-335 degree paths into Hawaii. In the evening it is to consolidate with 45-50 kt west winds at 40N 155W aimed directly down the 285 degree path to Central CA and with sideband energy pushing down the 357 degree path to Hawaii 30-32 ft seas building at 40N 173W for Hawaii and 30 ft seas at 40N 160W for the US mainland. On Tuesday AM (11/24) 50 kt fetch is to take control at 40N 150W  aimed well up the 285 degree path to NCal and the 294 degree path to SCal while the storm starts lifting north. 36 ft seas are forecast at 39N 155W. 45 kt west winds to hold in the evening at 40-45N 150W aimed due east (same headings for CA) with 41 ft seas from previous fetch building at 41N 148W.  This system is to be rapidly deteriorating by Wednesday AM though 41 ft seas from previous fetch are to be holding at 43N 143W auguring towards the US West Coast from Washington southward.   

Yes another gale is forecast building off the Northern Kuril Islands on Thursday (11/26) with 40 kt northwest winds pushing towards the dateline.

 

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Thursday (11/19) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was effectively out of the Inactive Phase and in the Active Phase, right where we want it to be to support the continued development of El Nino. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index continued in the negative range with the Daily SOI index down at -20.11 (only 7 days positive over the whole length of the Inactive Phase and now back negative for 8 days in a row and deepening). The 30 day average was up to -10.77 (the effects of the Inactive Phase) while the 90 average was down some to -5.22.  This continues almost looking like a legitimate El Nino based solely on the SOI.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated a fading and weak but still broad area of easterly anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase pretty much filling the equatorial Pacific from New Guinea east to Central America.  But westerly anomalies associated with the Active Phase were entering the far West Pacific up to the Philippines. The Inactive Phase is expected to slowly fade while pushing east letting go of the dateline region on 11/23, and then into Central America on 11/28, completely gone by 12/1. All the while a weakly building version of a new Active Phase is to be pushing east from the Indian Ocean into the West Pacific reaching New Guinea  on 11/23, holding there and easting up to the dateline on 12/3 and holding into 12/8.  This episode is looking about like the last run of the models (generally weak)  , which is to be expected given that we are in an El Nino configuration. In short, the Inactive Phase appears to be fading producing only a week of easterly anomalies, a good thing to not suppress our building El Nino with westerly anomalies up to bat. But for now the assumption is the net storm actively is likely to start being enhanced by 11/23, and on the upswing from there from 3-4 weeks.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (11/19) indicates no real change from the last update with warm anomalies holding, extending the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline at 1.5 degs C higher than normal or more. This remains good news . In short, the Kelvin wave that hit Central America nearly a month ago has manifest itself at the surface in warmer waters across the length of the tropical Pacific, exactly what is required for a legitimate El Nino to develop.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to hold north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA, and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. A cool trail, the result of upwelling from Super Hurricane Rick, was evident off Central Mainland Mexico to Baja. This overall warmer water signature remains not not anything exceptional, but clearly is a moderate El Nino. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of water temps and areal coverage and is only building on that position. 

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field).  We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality.  The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.    

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look favorable. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  A core of 2 deg warmer than normal sub-surface water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moved east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and continued growing as of 10/18 at 160W.  Data on 10/20 depicted intensification with temps pushing solidly 4 degrees C above normal. And as of 10/22 that anomaly looked to be broaching the 5 degree mark and was holding if not expanding on 10/25. On 10/26 it was confirmed at 5 degrees above normal and racing east, much faster than previous Kelvin Waves and located at 145W , and then 135W on 10/29 and 125W on 10/31 with 4 degree anomalies extending the whole was back to the dateline. On 11/3 the Kelvin Wave built yet more, with temps to 6 degrees above normal at 130W with the leading edge at 125W, holding on 11/5. By 11/8 the 6 degree anomalies had expanded with the leading edge still at 125W. On 11/14 temps dipped to 5 deg C in the core of the Kelvin wave, but expanded in coverage and moved east with the leading edge at 110W and the core at 125W. This wave was modeled to 120W on 11/16 and 11/19 and holding strength. This remains a very solid Kelvin Wave, and large in areal coverage too, extending 3600 nmiles miles long. This sub-surface temperature wave is the result of a prolonged persistent  westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and continued into 11/5. It is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador possibly late November (previous forecast for December). This should have a significant positive impact enhancing the existing warm pool when it hits Central America.  

On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline.  And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline.  But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in place to the dateline and east to about Hawaii fading some into 10/20 but still light west winds were west of the dateline and anomalies east of there. Then on 1021 another batch of fully blowing west winds were in-play with solid anomalies to 160W (south of Hawaii) and almost to 140W, making further eastward progress than anything so far this El Nino event. By 10/24 that pattern continued if not intensified with fully blowing west winds to the dateline a solid anomalies to 140W and maybe even more. And on 10/26 the pattern continued, with anomalies pushing even further eastward to near 130W. On 10/29 full blowing west winds and anomalies continued as documented above.  This put anomalies over almost the entire equatorial Pacific.  Impressive. And on 10/31 the pattern continued with weak west winds in the west and anomalies all the way to 110W, basically covering the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. finally on 11/2 the westward blowing winds died on the far West Pacific as the Inactive Phased took control there. But anomalous west winds continued from the dateline almost the whole way into Ecuador through 11/5. But this is likely the end of this event. In fact on 11/7 only the faintest hint of westerly anomalies existed mainly south of Hawaii. And by 11/10 only neural/normal winds were in control and holding through 11/19. Interesting, but one would expect to see easterly anomalies with the advent of the Inactive Phase, but that has not happened nor is it expected now with the Inactive Phase effectively gone. This is great news and if anything were expecting to see building westerly anomolies and more fuel for another Kelvin Wave. All this suggests a significant eastward propagation of warm water is continuing and remains very good news for the development of El Nino. Again, this is classic El Nino symptoms. This is the first such event for this El Nino. For almost 2 months (since 9/8) a continuous moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma, Melor and Nepartak, that flow was enhanced.  At this time all these anomalies appear to be consolidating the resulting warm waters into one strong Kelvin Wave, the one currently pushing east from the dateline (see above). This one is expected to reinforce if not deepen the warm anomalies on the surface over the equator.  

El Nino will survive with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the late Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty.  In short, all the best models aren't exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.   

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch is to develop.   

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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