Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 16.2 secs from 282 degrees. Water temp 78.8 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.3 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 12.4 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 10.3 ft @ 17.1 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 77.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 10.3 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 8.2 ft @ 16.8 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 11.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 8.9 ft @ 14.0 secs from 301 degrees. Wind west at 16-20 kts. Water temperature 56.5 degs, 54.5 (Harvest 071), 56.8 (Topanga 103), 57.9 (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 9.8 ft @ 14.4 secs from 300 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 9.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 291 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.9 ft @ 14.9 secs from 261 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 277 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 271 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.6 ft @ 14.9 secs from 282 degrees. Water temperature was 55.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 12.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 9.5 ft @ 13.9 secs from 283 degrees. Wind WNW 16-20 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and W 13-14 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and SW 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.3 (San Francisco 46026), 54.1 (SF Bar 142), 55.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.6 (Soquel Cove S.).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (12/27) in North and Central CA waves were 10 ft on the sets and somewhat lined up and ragged and ill-formed with chop and warble in the water making it unrideable and with modest south winds. Protected breaks were 2 ft over high and super lined up if not closed out and cleanish but with alot of warble in the water. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and warbled and irregular from ongoing south wind. In Ventura County surf was waist to chest high and blown out and unrideable from westerly wind. Central Orange County had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out but trashed from brisk onshore winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at waist to maybe chest high and lined up but very soft and warbled. North San Diego had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean. Oahu's North Shore was getting the last swell of the series with waves 12-15 ft Hawaiian and lined up and clean. The South Shore was knee high and weakly lined up and clean early. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell at head high and clean with no winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (12/27) the final swell in a long series was hitting Hawaii and bound for California, though California was seeing plenty of leftover swell from previous gales still impacting the coast. The final gale developed off North Japan on Mon (12/23) with 35 ft seas then moving east over the dateline Tues-Wed (12/25) with 39 ft seas before fading in the Central Gulf early Thurs (12/26) with seas dropping from 27-30 ft. A small weak system to also develop in the Gulf Fri (12/27) with 35 ft seas aimed east. Another to follow off the Kuril Islands Sat-Sun (12/29) with 29 ft seas but is to never reach more than half way to the dateline. A stronger system is forecast off Japan tracking east Mon (12/30) with seas building to 42 ft on the dateline Tues (12/31) then fading in the West Gulf Wed (1/1) with sea fading from 38 ft. And another is forecast developing west of Japan tracking to the dateline Wed-Fri (1/3) with 42 ft seas initially fading to 32 ft. The storm pattern will not quit, though it is forecast to move a little more to the west now. No shortage of surf is likely.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (12/27) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 35N latitude line with winds to 200 kts fading on the dateline and almost splitting then reconsolidating with winds 160 kts pushing from a point north of Hawaii into the Pacific Northwest. A gentle trough was off the Kuril ISlands and another in the Eastern Gulf offering support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the same pattern is to hold but with the weakly split area moving east and into the Central Gulf on Sun (12/29) and then off the Pacific Northwest on Mon (12/30). Winds to be at least 190 kts west of the split through the period offering decent but limited support for gale formation due to lack of any solid troughing. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (1/1/25) the jet is to be reorganizing still pushing solidly off Japan on the 33N latitude line wit winds 160-170 kts reaching to the dateline then lesser energy into Oregon. A certified trough is to be digging out just west of the dateline supporting gale formation while another trough dig out in the Central Gulf also likely being productive. The pair of troughs are to head east reaching the dateline on Fri (1/3) being fed by 180 kts winds and the other poised to impact Oregon with both still supporting gale formation. Here we go again!

Surface Analysis
On Friday (12/27) multiple overlapping swells from previous fetch/gales were still impacting California. And swell from a new gale that pushed over the dateline was hitting Hawaii and bound for California (see Another Dateline Gale below).

On Fri AM (12/27) a small gale was building well off South Oregon with 50 kts west winds over a tiny area and seas 34 ft at 43.5N 146.75W aimed east. The gale is to be fading just off North Oregon in the evening with seas 32 ft at 45N 137.25W aimed east. The gale is to be inland Sat AM (12/28) with seas from previous fetch 25 ft at 45N 130W or just off the North Oregon coast. Swell from it is to be buried in the Dateline Gale (below).

On Sat AM (12/28) a gale is to develop just off North Japan with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 26 ft at 42.5N 158E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts over a building area with seas 28 ft at 44N 165E aimed east. On Sun AM (12/29) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 25 ft at 46N 170E aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening with seas 25 ft at 47.5N 175E aimed east. Fetch and seas fading fast after that. Maybe some background swell to result.

Another Dateline Gale
Another small storm developed off Japan on Mon AM (12/23) with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 45N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch built in coverage while falling southeast with west northwest winds at 40-45 kts filling the Northwest Pacific with seas 33 ft at 45.75N 175.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/24) fetch tracked east while building in coverage on the dateline from the west at 40-45 kts with 35 ft seas at 42.25N 173.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale moved just over the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas 37 ft at 42.5N 176.25E aimed east. The gale tracked east on Wed AM (12/25) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 42.5N 172.75W aimed east. The gael raced east reaching the Central Gulf on late Wed (12/25) with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 34 ft at 42.75N 162.5W aimed east. Secondary fetch built Thurs AM (12/26) in the Central Gulf at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 44N 154W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening off North CA at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 40N 138W aimed east. Swell is pushing east.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (12/27) at sunrise with swell 7.4 ft @ 16 secs early (12 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/28) from 5.9 ft @ 14 secs early (8.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (12/29) fading from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival Sat (12/28) mid-day at 10 ft @ 16 ft (16 ft) and period building later to 17 secs with size holding. Swell fading on Sun (12/29) from 8.1 ft @ 15 secs early (12 ft). Swell fading Mon (12/30) from 6.2 ft @ 14 secs early (8.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (12/31) fading from 6.4 ft @ 12 secs early (7.5 ft). Dribbles Wed (1/1) fading from 4.3 ft @ 11 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 293 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell building through the day Sat (12/28) building to 4.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (6.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell continues Sun (12/29) holding at roughly 3.3 ft @ 17 secs early (5.5). Swell fading Mon (12/30) fading from 4.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Dribbles Tues (12/31) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 298 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (12/28) south winds 10 kts for North Ca early and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a new front starts building off the coast with south winds 15 kts for North CA and Northwest winds 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. Light rain for North CA through the day. no snow forecast and if anything rain for Tahoe but dry further south.
Sun AM (12/29) a front impacts North CA with south winds 20-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds down to the Golden Gate at 10 kts and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the front pushes south with high pressure behind it generating northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North Ca building south of Monterey Bay in the afternoon clearing in the evening. Snow for the Tahoe building south over the Sierra in the afternoon clearing in the evening.
Mon AM (12/30) northwest winds to be 10 kts to Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 20-25 kts from Monterey Bay south of Pt Conception. High pressure builds in the afternoon with northwest winds 20 kts for North Ca and 20-25 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (12/31) high pressure holds with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon more of the same with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (1/1) south winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA early and north-northeast 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon winds to be northwest 10 kts for North CA and north-northeast 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (1/2) north winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/3) northwest winds to be 10 kts for north and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North Ca and 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 13, 16, 9, and 1 inches all on Sun (12/29).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000-8,000 ft through 12/29 falling to 4,000-5,000 ft 12/30 then rising to 8,200 ft 12/31 and up to 10,500 ft 1/2 and holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off Japan Sun PM (12/29) with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building. On Monday AM (12/30) northwest winds build to storm status at 50-55 kts and seas 32 ft at 40.25N 163.5E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 50-55 kts and seas 42 ft at 39.25N 170.5E aimed east and southeast. On Tues AM (12/31) the storm is to be over the dateline with west winds 50-55 kts and seas 42 ft at 40.25N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch pushing east in the evening at 50 kts with seas 44 ft at 41.5N 174.25W aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (1/1) in the Western Gulf from 40 kts with seas 38 ft at 41.25N 167.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening while moving into the Gulf from 30-35 kts and seas 31 ft at 38N 160W aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/2) from 30 kts with seas 27 ft at 39N 157W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Another is to build just off North Japan Wed AM (1/1) just of Central Japan with 50-55 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 40N 152E aimed east. In the evening 50 kts west winds to be half way to the dateline with seas 42 ft at 36.5N 158E aimed east and southeast. On Thurs AM (1/2) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a solid area approaching the dateline with 40 ft seas at 34.25N 167E aimed east. Fetch easing east in the evening at 40 kts over a broad area and seas 39 ft at 36.5N 174E aimed east and southeast. Fetch holding while easing east Fri AM (1/3) with 35 ft seas at 40.75N 179E aimed east. Fetch fading from 35-40 kts over a large area aimed east on the dateline with 32 ft seas at 36.25N 177W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/27) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with moderate west anomalies over the West KWGA. The forecast suggests more of the same but with east anomalies fading some to moderate status through 1/1/25. Then west anomalies to start retrograding west while fading in strength isolated back over the Maritime Continent but building in strength starting 1/4 while east anomalies start rebuilding filling the KWGA at strong status 1/8 holding through the end of the model run on 1/12.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/26) Currently the Active Phase (wet air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO filling the KWGA on day 5 while easing east on days 10 and gone on day 15 with the Inactive Phase (dry air) building into the for West Pacific days 10 and filling it on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/27) - The models depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to Africa 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the far West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/15) No Update - This model depicts a weak Active signal (wet air) over the far West Pacific. The Active Phase (wet air) is to push east through the KWGA through 12/25. After that a stronger Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving east into the KWGA 1/4/25 and continuing east through the last frame of the model run on 1/24.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/26) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were in control of the east half of the KWGA with modest west anomalies over the Western KWGA with active contours filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies at moderate status holding position into 1/6 then retreating with Active contours tracking east and east of the KWGA by 1/9. East anomalies are to hold over the core of the KWGA then building to strong status 1/15 with Inactive contours pushing over the KWGA starting 1/10 holding through the end of the model run on 1/23.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/27) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was in control over the KWGA with moderate east anomalies still filling 65% of it and west anomalies filling the west 45% of it. The forecast has east anomalies holding filling the east half of the KWGA finally gone on 12/30. West anomalies are to mostly fill the KWGA from then into 1/8 with Active contours fading on 1/13. A moderate Inactive Phase to follow 1/4/25 tracking east through 2/1 with east anomalies filling the KWGA at strong status. A weak Active Phase is to follow 1/28 through 3/9 but with west anomalies mostly limited to the far West KWGA. Another Inactive Phase to follow 3/1 through the end of the model run on 3/26 with west anomalies starting to show in the core of the KWGA The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and a second developed 12/7 and a third forecast developing 1/14-3/13. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for but not in line with any other model.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was at 166E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east at 177W from 180W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to 140W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific. A building pocket of cool anomalies were present down to -5.0 degs from 120-170W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/19 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east at up to -5.0 degs below normal. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 110-170W and -15 cms at 150W. It appears the cool pool is building but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/19) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is rebuilding filling the area from the dateline east with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is in play with now 6 pulses so far. Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/26) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from 120W to 160W and stronger from 140W to the dateline but not present in the far East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/26): A weak warming pattern was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 115W and a weak cooling trend near the dateline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/27) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data os less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.648. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/27) Today's temps were falling down to -1.466 and have been falling since peaking at -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.8 week of 12/18, the coldest so far, Previously temps were -0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (12/27) - Actual temps are now posted for the month of Dec and annihilated the CFS forecast where the forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.3 degs. The forecast is for temps falling to -1.05 in Jan before rebounding to -0.35 in April 2025 and at 0.0 beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs in Jan then rebounding as described above. We are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.435 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 7th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.2 degs in March (MAM). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.594 in Dec and the Statistic down to -0.203 in Dec. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/27) the Daily Index was negative at -0.57 today, but otherwise positive over a month now
The 30 day average was rising at +11.33 and has been building positive the last month and in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was rising some at +7.31 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month through trending towards weak La Nina.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.