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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, December 11, 2017 4:55 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.8 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/11 thru Sun 12/17

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Broad Gale Tracking Through Western Gulf
Weaker Pattern to Follow


On Monday, December 11, 2017 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 6.5 ft @ 12.4 secs from 334 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.7 secs from 249 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 60.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.1 ft @ 10.2 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.3 secs from 232 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.1 ft @ 12.8 secs from 224 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 239 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 15.0 secs from 283 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temp 54.9 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.


Current Conditions
On Monday (12/11) in North and Central CA new swell from the Western Gulf of Alaska was starting to hit producing occasional set waves in the 2 ft overhead range at top breaks and clean with offshore winds in control. Protected breaks were waist to chest high with some bigger peaks and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and clean but with a little warble in the water. In Southern California up north surf was waist to maybe chest high and clean but still smokey with light offshores. In North Orange Co surf was waist to chest high on the sets and clean coming from the south. South Orange Country's best breaks were head high and clean and lined up. In San Diego surf was chest to near head high at top breaks and clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was getting the second day of solid local swell with waves 8 ft Hawaiian at top spots and pretty clean and lined up though a little warbled. The South Shore was flat to waist and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell at 2 ft overhead and clean early with south winds 5 kts early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (12/11) swell from a gale that developed in the Western Gulf pushing east Thurs-Fri (12/7) with 26-27 ft seas was arriving in North California and past it peak but still solid in Hawaii. Also swell from another gale that developed in the Southwestern Gulf Fri-Sat (12/9) with 24-25 ft seas targeting Hawaii well was hitting the Islands. A broad system developed off the North Kuril's tracking southeast Sat-Sun (12/10) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east then is to fade some while falling southeast over the dateline Mon-Tues (12/12) with 30-32 ft seas targeting the US West Coast but Hawaii better and moving within 600 nmiles of the Islands. So more swell is developing and pushing east and southeast. After that things back off some with a gale forecast tracking into the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (12/17) with up to 28 ft seas aimed east. Maybe another to follow behind but details are sketchy at this early date.


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Monday AM (12/11) the jetstream was pushing east off Japan ridging slightly then starting to fall southeast just west of dateline into a trough being fed by 200 kts winds with it's apex 600 nmiles north of Hawaii offering good support for gale development. then the jet split with most energy tracking northeast up into North Canada with then southern branch tracking east into and over Baja. Over the next 72 hours
the trough is to hold into Wed AM (12/13) but starting to pinch off then and fully pinched by Thurs (12/14) no longer support gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to remain consolidated but with winds energy down only to 130 kts in pockets with no clearly defined troughs forecast through Sun (12/17). But on Monday (12/18) winds are to start building in the jet over Japan pushing 180 kts and then up to 190 kts on Tues (12/19) reaching to the dateline. The split point is to be at 170W with no troughs indicated except east of Kamchatka mostly in the Bering Sea. But with renewed energy in the jet it seems the split point will again start moving east and a trough eventually might redevelop in the Western Gulf.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (12/11) swell from two gales in the Western Gulf of Alaska was hitting Hawaii (see West Gulf Gale and Another Gulf Gale - Hawaii below). Also swell from one of those gale was hitting California modestly. Also swell from another gale in the eastern Gulf was tracking towards California. (See East Gulf Gale below). And yet a far broader system was tracking across the North Pacific (see North Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours other than the North Pacific Gale (below) another weak system is to push off the the Southern Kuril Islands on Tues (12/12) pushing east with up to 40 kt west winds and seas to 28 ft at 43N 152E in the evening. It is to fade while tracking east Wed (12/13) making it half way to to the Dateline region in the evening with barely 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 42N 160E. On Thurs (12/14) fetch is to regenerate some at 30-35 kts from the northwest over a broader area moving over the dateline in the evening with seas 23 ft at 43N 175E. This system to possible regenerate more from there (see Long Tern Forecast).


North Pacific Gale
On Saturday AM (12/9) a gale was developing just east of the North Kuril's slowly getting traction on the oceans surface generating a broad area of west winds at 30-40 kts aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt west winds were holding there with seas building from 32 ft at 48N 167E. On Sun AM (12/10) 45 kt west winds held position over a small area aimed east while additional 35-40 kt west winds pushed hard east reaching into the Western Gulf with seas in the original fetch at 33 ft at 50N 165E (323 degs HI) and 20 ft seas build east over the dateline to 42N 175W. In the evening the core fetch faded from 45 kts still locked off the Kuril Islands with pockets of 35-45 kt west winds extending east into the Gulf with 33 ft seas off the Kuril's over a small sized area at 48N 165E (322 degs HI) but with 28-30 ft seas stretching from the southern tip of Kamchatka the whole way into the Western Gulf with its eastern tip at 44N 167W (296 degs NCal). 1500 nmiles of fetch. Mon AM (12/11) fetch was becoming concentrated in the Western Gulf at 35-40 kts from the northwest and west over a large sized area with 31 ft seas centered at 40N 175W targeting Hawaii directly (325 degs HI, 291 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal) and a small area of 36 ft seas at 44N 160W targeting the US West Coast (296 degs NCal). Much swell energy to be pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. In the evening the main fetch is to fade while tracking southeast at 35 kts with a large area of 30-32 ft seas falling southeast at 35N 171W targeting Hawaii (325 degs HI, 281 degs NCal, 287 degs SCal) and California. Tues AM (12/12) fetch is to be from the northwest fading from barely 30 kts with 29 ft seas at 34N 168W targeting mainly Hawaii. Larger raw swell is possible for the Islands.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting at sunset Tues (12/12) with swell pushing 10 ft @ 16-17 secs (16.5 ft) and heading up from there. Swell to be peaking at sunrise Wed (12/13) at 13.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (21 ft) and raw and jumbled fading some later in the afternoon. Swell fading Thurs (12/14) from 9.2 ft @ 15 secs (13.5 ft) and fading through the day. Residuals on Fri (12/15) fading from 4.5 ft @ 13 secs (5.5-6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-330 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Wed PM (12/13) after dark building slowly with period 17 secs. Swell to be peaking on Thurs AM (12/14) at 5.4 ft @ 15 secs (8.0 ft) and holding. Swell up some Fri AM (12/15) at 7.0 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft) fading slightly through the day. Residuals fading Sat AM (12/16) fading from 4.5 ft @ 14 secs early. Swell Direction: 285-290 degrees

South CA: Swell arrival on Thurs AM (12/14) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building Fri (12/15) to 2.4 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell continue Sat (12/16) fading slowly from 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Residuals fading Sun (12/17) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees degrees


West Gulf Gale
An improved jetstream flow aloft was feeding the storm track on Tues-Wed (12/6). A gale tracked east from the Southern Kuril's Tues-Wed (12/6) generating up to 28 ft seas over a tiny area at 46N 167E Wed AM (12/6) then fading. But on Thurs AM (12/7) that gale continued tracking east and rebuilding with 35 kt northwest winds moving into the Western Gulf with 23 ft seas at 46N 172W (298 degs NCal). In the evening fetch was falling southeast some at 35 kts over a broader area with 27 ft seas at 43N 166W targeting NCal well (296 degs) with sideband energy to Hawaii (345 degs). Fri AM (12/8) fetch held it's position at 30-35 kts with additional 30 kts northwest fetch building in just west of it resulting in 25-26 ft seas over a solid area at 42N 162W (291 degs NCal) with sideband energy into HI (355 degs). In the evening the gale faded with fetch gone and seas fading 23 ft at 41N 158W aimed east (293 degs NCal). But the secondary fetch is to be building (see Another Gulf Gale - Hawaii) below. Another modest pulse of swell is expected for North and Central CA.

North CA:Swell arrived Sun PM (12/10) and was slowly building forecast to 4.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.5 ft) on Monday AM holding through the day. That did not occur with swell more like barely 4.0 ft @ 14-15 secs. Swell Direction: 291 degrees Swell from the secondary fetch is to arrive in California on Tues (12/12) at 5.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0-7.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (12/13) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 291 degrees


Another Gulf Gale - Hawaii
Yet another gale formed in the Western Gulf Fri PM (12/8) with 35 kt northwest winds taking aim on Hawaii and seas building from 20 ft at 37N 170W and just 1000 nmiles northwest of the Islands. Fetch is to fall southeast and grow in coverage on Sat AM (12/9) at 30-35 kts from the Aleutians south to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii with 25 ft seas peaking at 34N 163W (345 degs HI) and lesser seas behind that. The gale is to fade in the evening and start tracking east with 23 ft seas from previous fetch at 30N 156W just 600 nmiles north of Hawaii (360 degrees HI). The gale is to be gone and out of the swell window for Hawaii after that.

Hawaii: Swell fading Mon AM (12/11) from 6.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction 340 degrees


East Gulf Gale
On Sat PM (12/9) remnants of a gale previously just north of Hawaii started redeveloping while moving north 900 nmiles off the North CA coast with westerly winds building from 30-35 kts aimed east. On Sun AM (12/10) winds were 45 kts from the northwest lifting north off Oregon producing a tiny area of 26 ft seas at 45N 146W aimed east (302 degs NCal) at 18Z. Winds faded from 40 kts in the evening with 27 ft seas all aimed north towards Alaska. This system was gone and impacting Alaska Mon AM (12/11). Whatever swell is generated is to be arriving in sync with West Gulf Gale swell (see above).


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday AM (12/11) high pressure at 1040 mbs over the Great Basin continuing an offshore flow for the entire US West Coast at 5-10 kts. The high is to shift west some on Tues (12/12) with winds turning north over outer waters to 15 kts and barely offshore in the afternoon in North CA. On Wed-Thurs (12/14) the high is to hold off the Pacific Northwest Coast generating northeast winds early for most of California but turning north to northwest winds the afternoons. So a bit of a pattern change is projected. Then on Friday (12/15) the pattern change becomes more pronounced with high pressure building in from the west and north winds building to 25 over North CA and 20 kts southward to just off the tip of Pt Conception. More of the same is forecast Sat (12/16) with north winds 25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. The offshore flow is to be over for now. More of the same on Sunday though north winds only 15-20 kts for NCal. Light winds possible by Monday (12/18).

South Pacific

Surface Analysis  
No swell producing winds of interest were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale forecast tracking east through the Northwest Pacific is to start building on the dateline Fri AM (12/15) with a building area of 35 kt northwest winds getting traction on the oceans surface and seas building to 25 ft at 44N 178W. Fetch to build to 40 kts from the west in the evening with seas 29 ft at 45N 172W. A solid area of 30-35 kts west winds is to be in the Gulf Sat AM (12/16) with seas 27 ft at 45N 165W aimed purely east targeting only California and the Pacific Northwest. Fetch is to be lifting northeast in the evening in the Northern Gulf at 35 kts with 24 ft seas at 46N 157W aimed east. Sun AM (12/17) fetch is to be limited to the extreme Northern Gulf at 35 kts from the west with 27 ft seas at 53N 150W targeting only British Columbia and points north of there. Something to monitor.

There's suggestions of another unremarkable system trying to develop on the North Dateline Region on Mon (12/18) but nothing is believable yet.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system nor fetch is forecast.

More details to follow...


MJO Holding Active - Possibly to Pulse Again

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. So it appears now a double dip La Nina is setting up and is to continue through the Winter and Spring of 2017-2018.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (12/10) 5 day average winds were from the east over the entire equatorial Pacific but west in the Central Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and light easterly over the Central Pacific then weakly west over the Western KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/11) Strong east anomalies were modeled over the Eastern KWGA on the dateline but moderate plus strength westerly anomalies were over the core of the KWGA. This situation is to basically hold for the next week but with the westerly anomalies fading some around 12/16 then building at the end of the model run on 12/17-18 while east anomalies fade on the dateline at the same time. And east anomalies are modeled at 60E starting 12/16, the first time in a long time. The Active Phase of the MJO appears to be holding in the West Pacific.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 12/10 a moderate Active/Wet signal was in the West Pacific reaching east to the dateline. The statistical model depicts the Active/Wet Phase easing east making it just east of the dateline 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the Active/Wet signal holding over the West Pacific and not getting any weaker.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/11) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO weak over the West Pacific and is to restrengthen while slowly pushing east towards the Central Pacific 2 weeks. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to hold in the West Pacific oscillating in strength.
40 day Upper Level Model: (12/11) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet MJO pattern over the West Pacific and slowly easing east pushing into Central America 1/15 becoming incoherent. A modest Inactive/Dry MJO signal is to follow starting in the West Pacific 12/26 and tracking east to the East Pacific through the end of the model run on 1/20/18 (40 days out). Another Active/Wet Phase is to follow in the West Pacific on 1/13. This model runs about 1 week ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (12/11) This model depicts a building Wet/Active MJO pattern over the Western KWGA with west anomalies west of the dateline and east anomalies east of there. The Active Phase of the MJO is to push east through 12/23 with decent west anomalies in the KWGA through the period and pushing east of the dateline 12/23. After that a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to reappear 12/27 building over the dateline holding through 1/17/18 with weak east anomalies forecast mainly from the dateline eastward. Beyond the Active Phase is to take control in the West Pacific 1/13 through the the end of the model run on 3/10/18 with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA and east anomalies from the dateline eastward. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the extreme west KWGA and it is to ease east filling 75% of the KWGA by 1/28 and holding there. A high pressure bias is over the East KWGA at 170E and is to move east into the East Pacific and only 15% remaining in the KWGA by Feb 1 and tracking east from there. If this verifies, the underpinnings of La Nina are to be fading and then gone by late December. This suggest that as winter builds (typically the peak of La Nina in the jan timeframe), support for La Nina is to be fading. But it takes 3 months for the ocean to respond to whatever happens in the atmosphere, so this winter is lost to La Nina regardless of what the low pass filter indicates. No significant oceanic change is expected until likely early April 2018. Even at that it will take about 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops. So a neutral ENSO pattern is likely to develop.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/11) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs in the far West Pacific at 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is holding at 179W and steep (meaning there is a headwind of cooler water pushing into it from the east). The 24 deg isotherm was weak and has pushed east to 133W and shallow at 50 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise it is clear that in the East Pacific warm water gone and instead neutral to modestly negative temperatures are at the surface and down to -2 degs C down 150 meters filling the area between Central America to 170W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at +2.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool temps retrograded west to 170W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 depicts a large area of cool water filling the subsurface East Pacific (-4.0 degs) and erupting to the surface in broad pockets between Ecuador to 170W with a near neutral temperature pattern in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial East Pacific with a core of -10 cm anomalies present between Ecuador to 150W. But a little break in the -10 cm anomalies is at 125W (but insignificant).

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a cool pattern remains is in control. Upwelling is building again solidly along Peru and Ecuador tracking west on the equator out to 160W with a well defined cool pool evidenced over the entire region. No warm anomalies are indicated within 3+ degs north or south of the equator over the entire region.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/10): A warming trend was still in place along Peru and now in building pockets on the equator out to 140W. A modest cooling trend was indicated in pockets also along the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos west to 140W.
Hi-res Overview: (12/10) Regardless of the short term warming trend indicated above, a clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile and up to Peru and Ecuador and building in coverage pushing west over the Galapagos and building out to 180W and stable. Cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. A mature La Nina has evolved.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/11) Today's temps were falling some to -1.366. The lowest point so far in this La Nina was -2.248 degs reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/11) Today temps were inching up but still well negative at -1.053degs. On (12/7) temps hit a new record low at -1.219, just below the previous coldest peak so far this La Nina on 11/22 at -1.156. And the third previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a solidifying cold pattern. La Nina is in control.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/11) The forecast depicts temps at -0.75 in early Nov falling to to -1.0 degs Jan 1 and holding into Feb. Then a weak upward trend is suggested with temps reaching -0.8 in April and -0.5 degs in July 2018 and holding there. This suggests a legit La Nina is expected for the Winter of 2017-2018 and possibly extending into 2018-2019. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Nov Plume updated (12/8) depicts temps bottomed out at -0.7 in early Nov and are to hold into Dec then slowly rising, to +0.0 in May and +0.3 in July2018. See chart here - link  The NMME consensus for Nov average indicates temps -0.9 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It looks like La Nina is peaking out now. The CFSv2 is now in the middle of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (12/11): The daily index was falling today -10.12 today. The 30 day average was falling from +10.31. The 90 day average was falling at +9.11. This suggests La Nina is in control.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (12/11) The index was falling at -1.62 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17). The trend is generally stable for now but clearly indicative of La Nina. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 so we've bested that already. But the recent upward trend is offering some hope. Still it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28, Oct=-0.60, Nov = -0.52. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32, Oct=0.05 . No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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