Saturday, December 10, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 8.0 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 7.9 secs from 157 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.6 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 8.3 secs from 44 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 242 degrees. Wind northwest at 2-8 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 59.9 (Topanga 103), 59.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 60.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.3 (Del Mar 153), 60.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.6 ft @ 13.1 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 272 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.7 secs from 257 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.6 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperate was 59.9 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.6ft @ 13.5 secs from 295 degrees. Wind south at 20-23 kts. Water temp 53.8 (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.3 (San Francisco 46026), 52.5 (SF Bar 142), 54.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (12/10) North and Central CA had sets a few feet overhead and blown out and unrideable from strong south winds and rain. Protected breaks were chest to near head high on the sets and clean but windswept with decent form but heavy south texture. At Santa Cruz surf was near head high and trashed from south winds with rain on top. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and clean. Central Orange County had sets at up to waist high and super clean and lined up coming from the north breaking near the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some thigh high sets and super clean and barely rideable on occasion. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and clean and lined up but soft. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at shoulder high or so wrapping around from the northeast and a little warbled. The South Shore had some waist high sets and fairly clean but with some east lump intermixed. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high to 1 ft overhead and heavily chopped from strong east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (12/10) Hawaii was getting only local windswell. California was getting raw and locally generated swell from a gale falling southeast from off the Pacific Northwest Sat-Mon (12/12) producing 24 ft seas aimed east. Another similar system is forecast Mon-Tues (12/13) producing 26 ft seas falling south off the US West Coast. And possibly a stronger system is to be over the Dateline region on Tues-Wed (12/14) producing 33 ft seas aimed southeast. So there's some hope.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (12/10) the jetstream was fairly consolidated pushing east off Japan at 160 kts then splitting on the dateline with most energy tracking northeast in the northern branch up over the Eastern Aleutian Islands before falling hard south over the Eastern Gulf with winds 170 kts forming a strong trough over the US West Coast offering good support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slowly push inland with it's apex reaching south over Central CA and landlocked by Mon (12/12) offering some support for gale development before then. during that time the split point in the west is to slowly creep east. Beyond 72 hours winds to build off Japan to 180 kts feeding development of a trough on the dateline later Tues (12/13) offering support for gale development but quickly getting pinched into Thurs (12/15) while falling southeast towards Hawaii perhaps supporting development of a secondary gale northwest of the Islands into the evening. By Fri (12/16) that trough is to collapse with the split retrograding to the dateline with winds 190 kts over Japan and the jet lifting northeast but with no clear support for trough development indicated and a huge split in the jet from the dateline east into the mid US Mainland. If anything the pattern seems ripe for more backdoor cold front along the US West Coast and gale development limited to points west of the dateline.
On Saturday (12/10) raw swell was impacting the US West Coast associated with a gale off the coast there (see Local CA Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours perhaps another gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Sun PM (12/12) with seas building. On Mon AM (12/12) 35 kt northwest winds are to be falling southeast with seas 18 ft at 45N 154W aimed southeast targeting mainly at the US West Coast. Fetch to building in the evening at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 45N 143W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/13) northwest winds to be 40 kts well off the PAcific Northwest with seas building to 27 ft at 44N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to fall south and fade at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 40N 139W aimed southeast. The gael is to be gone after that. Perhaps some swell to result for the US West Coast.
Local CA Gale
Fetch built off Oregon on Fri AM (12/9) at 30 kts from the west with seas 19 ft at 45.5N 146W aimed east. In the evening fetch built in coverage at 30-35 kts from the northwest and west impacting North CA with seas 21 ft off the coast at 42N 138W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/10) northwest winds were 30-35 kts just off the Pacific Northwest with 23 ft seas at 44.5N 132W aimed southeast. More of the same is expected in the evening with seas 24 ft at 44N 134.75W aimed southeast. No change on Sun AM (12/11) with northwest winds 30-35 kts off Southern OR with 23 ft seas at 43N 130W aimed southeast. The core of the gale is to be off North CA in the evening with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 24 ft at 41N 129W aimed southeast. This system is to be moving inland over Central CA on Mon AM (12/12). Larger raw jumbled local swell is expected for CA.
North CA: Expect swell arrival later on Sat (12/10) building to 8.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (9.0 ft). Swell building some on Sun (12/11) 10 ft @ 13 secs (12 ft). Swell theoretically peaking early on Mon (12/12) 10.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (14 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (12/13) from 5.0 ft @ 11 seas early (5.5 ft). Swell exceedingly junky. Swell Direction: 285 moving to 295 degrees and finally 305 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/11) building to 4.4 ft @ 13 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell peaking mid-day Mon (12/12) at 5.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (12/13) fading from 2.7 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293 moving to 305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun AM (12/12) the core of the low is to be just off Southern Oregon with northwest winds forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts for the remainder of North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. South winds 20+ kts for all of Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be over Pt Reyes with north winds 15 kts for north of Pt Reyes and west 20-25 kts for Pt Reyes south to Big Sur and west 15-20 kts south of there down into Southern CA. Moderate steady rain for North and Central CA early and building over Southern CA. Heavy snow for the Sierra early. Rain fading some late afternoon for all of CA. Snow continues for the Sierra through the afternoon though backing off by sunset but still snowing through the evening.
- Mon AM (12/13) the low is to be over Morro Bay with northwest winds forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 25 kts for Central CA early and west winds 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be inland over Central CA with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA and light winds for Southern CA. Rain fading if not gone early for North CA early and fading for Central CA gone by noon and fading from Southern CA by sunset. Light snow fading for the Central Sierra from north to south through the day.
- Tues AM (12/14) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure builds well off the coast with south winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest at 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Wed AM (12/15) a front from the low glances the North Coast with south winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and calm to light south winds for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Low odds for showers for the immediate Cape Mendocino coast through the day.
- Thurs AM (12/16) the low fade off the coast with easterly winds 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon a light offshore flow is forecast all locations including Southern CA.
- Fri AM (12/17) light south winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA with secondary low pressure developing well off the North CA coast. In the afternoon south winds continue at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. Maybe some rain for Central CA in the afternoon.
- Sat AM (12/18) no change is forecast . In the afternoon perhaps a light offshore flow to set up.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 67, 74, 76, and 55 inches all on 12/10-12/11.
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 6,400 ft on Sat AM (12/10) steady falling toggling between 1,000-4,000 ft from 12/11 through 12/15 then rising to 7,000 ft 12/16 and holding.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water or radiating towards the coast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting on Tues PM (12/13) a a gale is to start developing over the dateline producing 45-50 kt north winds with seas building from 24 ft at 41N 180W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/14) the gale is to be lifting northeast with a broad area of 45-50 kt north winds and seas 33 ft at 43.5N 173W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be over the Eastern Aleutians with 35-40 kt north winds sagging south of there a little bit and seas 28 ft at 47N 168W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. The gael to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
A secondary fetch is to develop 800 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Thurs AM (12/15) producing 35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 35N 173W aimed south. In the evening north winds to build to 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 35N 165W aimed south directly at Hawaii. On Fri AM (12/16) the gale is to build with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 34N 169W aimed south. The gale to fall south and fade in the evening with 35 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 38N 170W aimed south. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Getting Established Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and hold till mid-Nov, then started to retreat east. La Nina conditions are in control at the oceans surface but appear to be weakening while the foundations of it subsurface collapse. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are getting weakly established over the KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with a total collapse of La Nina near Christmas with water temps steadily rising beyond. The last link in the chain is to see SSTs actually rising and the SOI falling.The outlook is turning optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/10) Moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today strongest over the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for moderate east anomalies retrograding west from the dateline to the far West KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/17 with weak west anomalies building on the dateline starting 12/13 and holding if not building at the end of the model run. The 2 week GFS model is offline.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/9) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated over the dateline today. The statistical model indicates it fading and a near neutral MJO signal forecast for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model suggest a moderate Inactive MJO signal developing on day 10 of the model run building to strong status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/10) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Maritime Continent today and is to move tot he West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the same thing but with the Active Phase racing east and back over the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/10) A weak Active MJO (wet air) was developing over the KWGA today.The forecast has it moving east and into Ecuador on 1/4. A weak Inactive MJO (dry air) is forecast developing over the KWGA on 1/4 tracking east and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/9) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today with west anomalies over the Western KWGA and east anomalies over the dateline. West anomalies are to build over the KWGA holding through 12/15. After that east anomalies are to take over building to strong status mostly filling the KWGA 12/20 with the Inactive Phase traversing the KWGA through 12/30 and no real change forecast through the end of the model run on 1/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive MJO was over the KWGA with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control of the KWGA though strong east anomalies were east of the dateline. The Inactive Phase is to weakly hold through 12/17 but with west anomalies developing over the KWGA on 12/11 and weakly holding coverage into 12/25 then turning to neutral anomalies through 1/9. A moderate Active Phase of the MJO is to push over the KWGA 1/9 through the end of the model run on 3/9 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to try and set up at the end of the model run. The big change we've been anticipating is underway marked by the collapse of east anomalies and the arrival of weak west anomalies filling the KWGA starting on 11/16. East anomalies are to be relegated mostly to 165E and and points east of there moving forward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 2/1 with the primary contour collapsing or east of the KWGA by 2/26. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is slowly pushing east and forecast to push hard east starting 2/6 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight, indicating the demise of La Nina is underway.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 153W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W and was at 125W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far Central Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 130W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 122W and filling the area from 130W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east to 125W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 125W with it's core at 100W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) Sea heights were negative but rising over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 140W if not 120W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 137W and backtracking east with a previous persistent core of -15 cm anomalies gone and -10 cm anomalies collapsing between 125W to near Ecuador. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were in quick retreat positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 133W to Ecuador with the previous cold core gone. It appears the stubborn cool pool is quickly collapsing.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/9) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 20S. The coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator but weaker than days past and not even along the direct coast anymore. And the broad area of cool water south of that stream previously reaching south to 25S was losing intensity steadily and now only fully positioned north of 20S ad barely that. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/9): A stream of weakly warming water extended west from Ecuador to 140W. Warming was holding along Peru and Chile extending west to 100W. The balance was towards weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (12/9) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 85W to 125W directly over the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline over it's entire area. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/10) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.354 after warming to -1.570 a few days around 11/17 and up to 1.050 degs on 12/2 previously falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps were falling slightly at -0.948 after rising steadily the previous 8 days to -0.901 and that after falling to the lowest in weeks on 11/22 after rising to nearly -1.0 degs on 11/17, previously toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/10) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were rising at -1.116 after falling to -1.255 on 12/6 but otherwise have been holding around -1.0 degree since 11/3 and up to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22. In general temps have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were steady at -0.959 degs after rising to -0.870 on 11/29 and had been rising for 12 days prior after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov.
Forecast (12/10) - Temps are to be steady at about -1.00 degs into mid-Dec then starting a steady rise hitting -0.70 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the last week of Jan and up to +0.95 degs in August and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 the 2nd week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.65 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the 3rd week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.70 degs in July and holding in August. All this is a significant upgrade. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.921 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.732 degs in Dec and above the La Nina Threshold at -0.494 in Jan and -0.256 in Feb rising to +0.572 in July. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/10) the Daily Index was rising at +16.71 today and has been above +10 the previous 13 days but was generally below +10.0 (from 11/5-11/27). It was negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +9.94 after falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was stable at +13.83 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table