Tuesday, December 7, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 9.3 secs from 183 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 76.5 (Barbers Pt).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 348 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 7.8 secs from 262 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature NA degs, 61.3 (Topanga 103), 60.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.2 (Del Mar 153), NA (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 7.8 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 6.7 secs from 273 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.6 secs from 216 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) this buoy was inoperable.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 10.4 secs from 268 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temp 56.3 (Pt Reyes 029), 55.2 (46026), 55.2 degs (SF Bar 142), and 54.7 (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (12/7) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high and reasonably lined up and clean but soft. Protected breaks were flat and clean with ripples breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and clean and lined up but swamped by tide early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and soft and clean and mostly swamped by tide. Central Orange County had sets up to thigh high and pretty warbled from south wind though nearshore wind was calm. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a wave or two at maybe thigh high on the peak and textured from southerly wind. North San Diego had sets at knee high and clean and weak if even rideable. Hawaii's North Shore was getting waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and reasonably clean at select breaks through uneven. The South Shore was getting chest high windswell and clean but muddy. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell with sets head high and pretty ruffled with north winds about 8 kts early.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (12/7) Hawaii was getting leftover energy from a broad local gale previously north of the Islands over the weekend. California was getting nothing. Looking forward a weak system is tracking through the Northern Gulf of Alaska and is to continue on Wed (12/8) with seas in the 22-23 ft range aimed southeast. Of more interest is a broad system forecast developing over the Northern Gulf on Fri (12/11) falling southeast producing up to 33 ft seas moving off California on Tues (12/14). Weather is possible for the Golden state from this one too.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (12/7) the jet was ridging hard northeast off Japan with winds building to 190 kts pushing up to the Western Aleutians then falling hard south into a steep pinched trough with it's apex just west of Kauai offering very limited support for gale development. From there the jet was ridging northeast again over the Central Gulf and splitting with most energy falling into yet another trough positioned over Central CA and pushing inland over Southern CA. No clear support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed (12/8) the trough off Kauai is to become fully cut off and offering nothing with the main flow tracking over the Aleutians at 160 kts then sagging south some over the Northern Gulf perhaps offering some limited support for gale development there with winds holding in the 140 kts range over the Northeastern Pacific into Fri (12/10). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (12/10) the jet is to be split some over the coast of Japan and Siberia then consolidated over the dateline just south of the Central Aleutians with 150 kts winds tracking east through the Gulf of Alaska starting to sag south some forming the start of a trough. On Sat (12/11) the jet is to start falling harder south over the Northern Gulf with winds starting to build to 160 kts and then 190 kts on Sun (12/12) offering good support for gale development with the apex of the trough 700 nmiles off San Francisco. That trough is to hold position into Tues (10/14) with it's apex still stationary just off the Central CA coast offering more support for gale development and likely setting up weather for Central CA northward. Back to the west the jet is to pushing off Japan with winds 160-170 kts then splitting near the dateline, possibly signaling the start of the Active Phase of the MJO tracking east over the West Pacific. The thought is the split point will move east as following the path of the leading edge of the MJO.
On Tuesday (12/7) swell was fading in Hawaii from a gale that develop just north of the Islands (see Hawaiian Gale below). And another small gale was trying to develop in the Northern Gulf (see north Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Ar gale developed 700 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii on Fri AM (12/3) producing 35-40 kt north to northeast winds with seas building from 20 ft at 36N 164W aimed south. In the evening 40 kt northeast winds are to be building in coverage aimed southwest at Hawaii with seas 27 ft at 31N 161W 600 nmiles north of Oahu. On Sat AM (12/4) north winds built to 50-55 kts over a tiny area with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 36N 155.5W aimed south. In the evening 45 kt north winds continued but fading 900 nmiles north of the Hawaiian Islands with 27 ft seas at 35.5N 156W aimed south. On Sun AM (12/6) north fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with 23 ft seas fading at 40N 158W aimed southwest somewhat bypassing the Islands. In the evening this system is to be gone.
Oahu: Residuals on Tues (12/7) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (12/8) fading from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees moving to 360 degrees
North Gulf Gale
On Mon AM (12/6) a weak and small gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf producing 35 kt west winds and seas 22 ft at 49.5N 161.5W aimed east. In the evening the fetch lifted northeast at 30-35 kts over the far north Gulf with seas 23 ft at 53.25N 155.75. More of the same was happening on Tues AM (12/7) producing a tiny area of 25 ft seas at 56.75N 149W aimed east. In the evening a broader fetch of 30-40 kt west winds are to build in the Northern Gulf producing 23 ft seas at 58N 143.5W aimed east. Fetch is to start falling southeast on Wed AM (12/8) at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 55N 142W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 54N 136W aimed east and starting to impact North British Columbia.
North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (12/10) building to 4.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (12/11) from 4.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (12/8) north winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino down to the Golden Gate but light northwest south of there. Winds northwest 15-20 kts for all of North CA later and holding at 5-10 kts for Central CA in the afternoon. Light rain for Cape Mendocino through the day.
- Thurs (12/9) a more substantial wave of high pressure is forecast building in with north winds 20-25 kts for all of North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. Northwest winds building to 25-30 kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA. Light rain forecast for all of North and Central CA early pushing pushing south into Southern CA later with clearing over North and Central CA in the afternoon and rain over Southern CA. Solid snow building over the entire Sierra through the day clearing at sunset.
- Fri (12/10) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts south of Cape Mendocino early extending south over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. No precip forecast.
- Sat (12/11) light northwest winds are forecast (5 kts or less) for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon a front is to be pushing south with south winds at 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to Pt Arena with light winds from the Golden Gate southward. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon building slowly south.
- Sun AM (12/12) the front continues south with south winds 20 kts from the Golden Gate northward and 10 kts south to Monterey Bay. Light winds south of there. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 20 kts near San Francisco with light south winds north of there and light northwest winds from Big Sur southward. Rain building south from Pt Reyes early reaching Monterey in the afternoon and Big Sur in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe early slowly sinking south over the entire Sierra through the day.
- Mon (12/13) southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts from Pt Conception northward with the front over Pt Conception producing southwest winds 20 kts. Southwest winds 5 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon southwest winds at to be 20 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA with the front over Santa Barbara County producing southwest winds 10-15 kts for most of Southern CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early building through the day. Heavy snow for Tahoe and the Northern Sierra early covering the entire Sierra later and strong overnight.
- Tues (12/14) southwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. Northwest winds arrive in the afternoon at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts from Pt Arena southward and 25 kts from Big Sur southward into Baja. Rain early for all of CA except maybe San Diego then pushing south to San Diego late afternoon. Very heavy snow for the entire Sierra all day.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 131, 145, 118, and 72 inches with some on Dec 9th and then steady daily starting 12/12 through 12/16.
Freezing level 10,500 ft on 12/7 then dropping to 5,000 ft on 12/9 at the warmest and holding unchanged through the end of the model run falling to 3,000-4,000 ft in the evenings. Winter is supposedly going to arrive with gusto.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a stronger gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (12/10) with northwest winds building from 35-40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 51N 169W aimed southeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds are to be streaming southeast from the Eastern Aleutians with seas building from 25 ft over a solid area at 47.5N 159.75W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/11) 40-45 kt northwest winds are forecast streaming south over a building fetch with a broad area of 29 ft seas building at 48.5N 150.75W aimed southeast. The gale is to hold in the afternoon with 45 kt northwest winds and 33 ft seas forecast at 51.25N 148.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to hold unchanged Sun AM (12/12) with 40-45 kt northwest winds in the North and Central Gulf with 31 ft seas falling southeast at 49.25N 143.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be holding in the evening at 40 kts solid from the north with seas 32 ft at 48.25N 148.75W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (10/13) northwest winds to be fading while falling south at 30-35 kts reaching down to a point off San Francisco with 29-30 ft seas at 38N 141W aimed southeast. In the evening 30-35 kts northwest winds are to be fading off the CA coast with 26 ft seas over a broad area roughly near 37N 140W aimed southeast. Fetch gone on Tues AM (12/14) with seas from previous fetch 23 ft at 35N 135W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
Also a gale is forecast building off Japan on Tues AM (12/14) with 40-45 kts northwest winds and 28 ft seas at 40N 159E aimed southeast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Cold Sub-Surface Pool Discharging - Active MJO Solid
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is discharging to the surface while fading and easing east. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO is producing west anomalies forecast to take over the Western KWGA as previously forecast and filling 75% of the KWGA with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west in earnest late Dec and filling the KWGA by mid-Feb with a return to a more regular cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases starting now. With the cold subsurface pool discharging to the surface in the East Pacific, and a return of the MJO projected, it seems the the peak of this years La Nina event is already behind us. But the atmosphere will be slow to respond.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest to modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/7) west anomalies were strong over the West KWGA to 170E and moderate east over the East KWGA reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast calls for moderate to strong west anomalies holding and covering the western 65% of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/14. East anomalies are to hold east of the dividing line. This is a solid step in the right direction and the first in a very long time.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/6) A moderate Active MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistical model suggests the Active Phase is to build east on day 5 of the model run filling the KWGA then holding steady over the dateline filling the KWGA on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a slightly weaker version of the Active Phase tracking much the same as the statistical model over the KWGA through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/7) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the far West Pacific and is forecast tracking to the East Pacific at day 15 of the model run and modest. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving east over the West Pacific to the East Pacific and holding at moderate strength through day 15 of the model run. It's been a long time since we've seen this.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/6) A moderate Active MJO signal (wet air) was building over the West Pacific/KWGA today. The forecast indicates it is to track east pushing to the Central Pacific on 12/16 and into Central America 1/5. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start developing over the West Pacific on 12/26 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/15. The Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/6) This model depicts the Active Phase building solidly over the Central KWGA today filling nearly 75% of the KWGA with moderate to strong west anomalies. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal tracking through the KWGA and exiting east of it on on 1/1 positioned just west of the dateline at that time. West anomalies at moderate to strong status are forecast filling the west KWGA through 12/20 then moderating and pushing east punching a hole in the high pressure bias 12/20 moving to the eastern edge of the KWGA on 12/27 before redeveloping moderately over the Central and East Pacific beyond. East anomalies are to redevelop near the dateline on 12/27. This is a significant upgrade.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/7 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was developing over the KWGA with moderate west anomalies building in filling the western 75% of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO is to be moving over the KWGA through 1/6 with west anomalies filling the KWGA through 1/2. The Inactive Phase is to follow 12/23-2/2 with weak east anomalies building over the KWGA. Another Active Phase is to develop on 1/16 holding through 2/20 with weak west anomalies over the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow 2/21 through the end of the model run on 3/6 with neutral anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold till 12/31, then easing east and almost east of the dateline on 2/9. A broad single contour low pressure bias is now established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA and is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA on 12/29 reaching to 150E on 12/31 filling 50% of the KWGA and building east to the dateline at the end of the model run. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is being significantly challenged by west anomalies from a building Active Phase of the MJO. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is forecast moving forward. This could signal the demise of La Nina as we get deeper into Winter.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 164E. The 28 deg isotherm line was tracking east to 178E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 125W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady at about 150W. All sensors are down at 140W. Cool anomalies were fading from -2 degs C at 105W down 75 meters and tracking east and almost gone from the East Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but definitely less of a force than weeks and months past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/29 indicates no warm water east of 170W at depth with a bubble of cold water at -4C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface off Ecuador but with noticeably less intensity than weeks past and definitely losing ground. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 170E at -5 to -10 cms with only a tiny speck of -15 cms anomalies fading at 105W. No -20 or -25 cms anomalies exist. And the coverage of the -15 cms anomalies is in quick decline. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there at 20 to 25 cms. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern is well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina made a return and stronger than last year, but now appears to be in decline, at least from the subsurface water temp perspective. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 11/29 that coverage is collapsing centered at 105W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) gone and -1.5 deg anomalies shrinking fast from the west and east. It appears a cold water Kelvin Wave (upwelling Kelvin Wave) is erupting just west of the Galapagos.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/6) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator weakening though still dominant from Chile up to Peru then turning west and quickly building from the Galapagos east to 110W then weaker but still solid west of there to at least the dateline. A classic la Nina pattern was evident. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was still present. A homogenous area of warm water just north of the equator was fading from Ecuador west to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/6): Temps were warming along Chile and Peru but cooling over a thin but solid stream from the Galapagos to 150W. A cold water Kelvin Wave is erupting at the surface in the East equatorial Pacific resulting from the discharge of subsurface water below it.
Hi-res Overview: (12/6) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from Ecuador to 110W then weaker but still solid out to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A previous cool outflow from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island was gone. La Nina is solid but not building anymore focused over the equatorial Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/7) Today's temps were steady today at -1.584 after being at -1.432 on 11/29 and that after bottoming out on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/7) Today temps were stable at -0.869 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/5) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct and -1.0 degs in mid-Nov. The forecast indicates temps to continue a steady fall from here forward dropping down to -1.40 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.20 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Nov 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -1.019 degs today, and are to warm to -0.57 degrees in Feb, then rising to -0.00 degs in May and neutral after that. A solid return of La Nina is expected peaking about now then warming thereafter.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/30):
The daily index was positive at +11.62. The trend has been towards positive readings with previous notable peaks were at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising steadily at +12.92 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +10.05 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table