Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 9.4 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 79.0 (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 72 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 11.4 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 14.0 secs from 255 degrees. Wind southwest 2 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 62.6 (Harvest 071), 64.2 (Topanga 103), 64.0 (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.7 (Del Mar 153), 63.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 291 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 264 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 248 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.5 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 222 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 251 degrees. Water temperature 64.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 5.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 13.8 secs from 287 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), E 14-16 kts San Francisco (46026), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 12 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 57.4 (San Francisco 46026), 57.7 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 58.5 (Monterey Bay 46092), 58.1 (156 Monterey Outer Canyon).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/25) in North and Central CA surf was 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and clean but with a little warble in the mix. Protected breaks had sets at chest high and lined up and mostly closed out with a few shoulder here and there and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but a little bit soft. In Ventura County waves were chest to head high and lined up with good form and clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest to maybe head high and lined up with good form when they came and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high or so on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean early. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with good form and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high at top spots and clean with good form. The South Shore had sets at thigh high on occasion and weakly lined up and soft with calm wind early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to maybe waist high and and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/25) California was seeing fading swell that originated from a broad gale that developed off the Kurils Tues (11/18) reaching east to the dateline then tracking to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs (11/20) producing 28-35 ft seas aimed east over a diffuse but broad area. Hawaii was seeing no real swell of interest. A small gale formed over the North Dateline Sun (11/23) with up to 31 ft seas then fell southeast through Tues (11/25) with seas 25-26 ft aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. And gale is to track east from off North Japan Wed (11/26) producing 26 ft seas then building Thurs-Fri (11/28) over the dateline with 41-43 ft seas aimed east pushing east into the West Gulf Sat (11/29) with 30 ft seas then dissipating on Sun (11/30). Solid swell likely for Hawaii. Another gale is forecast for the North Dateline Mon-Tues (12/2) with 24 ft seas aimed due south targeting the Islands well.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/25) the jetstream was tracking due east on the 35N latitude line from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with winds 150 kts off Japan then down to 110-120 kts before tracking northeast up into Vancouver Island. A weak broad trough was over the Northwestern Gulf supporting some degree of gale formation there. Over the next 72 hours starting Thursday (11/27) wind energy is to be pushing off Japan at 150 kts digging out a nice trough just west of the dateline with winds building to 180 kts later in the day holding into Fri (11/28) offering great support for gale development pushing to the Western Gulf. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (11/29) that trough is to lift north and stall no longer supporting gale formation. Later on Sun (11/30) a new broad trough is to start building on the dateline being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering some support for gale formation with winds building to 200 kts just east of the dateline late Mon (12/1) and the trough getting steeper still supporting gale formation. Off to the east a cutoff backdoor trough is to set up off Central CA on Sat (11/29) holding into Tues (12/2) while tracking southwest off Southern CA likely maintaining a light local wind flow there.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/25) swell was fading in California from a front and a gale that tracked east from the Kuril Islands to the Northwestern Gulf (see Kuril-Dateline Fetch below). And swell was tracking towards Hawaii from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region falling southeast targeting Hawaii well (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (11/26) a gale is to develop off Japan tracking east producing northwest winds at 45 kts and seas 26 ft at 36.5N 162.25E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/27) the gale is forecast tracking east while approaching the dateline producing northwest to west winds at 50-55 kts and seas building from 35 ft at 39.5N 169E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be well organized on the dateline producing northwest winds at 50 kts with seas building from 42 ft over a small area at 36.5N 174.25E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (11/28) northwest winds to be 45-50 kts over the dateline with seas 41 ft at 35.5N 179.25W aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening northwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 36 ft at 35.5N 173W aimed east and southeast at the Islands. On Sat AM (11/29) northwest winds to be 35 kts with the gale over the Western Gulf with seas fading fast from 30 ft at 38.25N 171.25W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 35 kts with the gale lifting northeast and seas 26 ft at 37N 167.25W aimed east. The gael to dissipate fast after that while lifting northeast in the Gulf. Something to monitor.

Kuril-Dateline Fetch
On Tues AM (11/18) a fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds developed off the Kurils with seas 29 ft at 46.75N 157.5E aimed southeast and a front southeast of it producing 45 kts southwest winds and 24 ft seas at 41N 170E. In the evening west winds held at 30-35 kts streaming east off the North Kuril Islands with seas 27 ft at 46N 165.5E with the front producing 45 kts southwest winds and seas 29-30 ft at 41N 174E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/19) northwest winds were35+ kts well off the Kurils approaching the dateline with seas 26 ft at 45N 165E with the front over the dateline generating southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 44.25N 175W aimed east. In the evening the low and front pushed east and merged somewhat with northwest winds 35-40 kts over the dateline and seas 29-30 ft at 44.5N 176E and the front with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 34 ft at 41.5N 169.75W aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/20) the fetch was fading from 30-40 kts over the Northwest Gulf with seas 28 ft at 48N 177 aimed east and the front fading from 35 kts ahead of the low in the Gulf with seas 28 ft at 43N 159W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 23-26 ft over a broad area at 47N 168W aimed east. Fetch and seas dissipating after that.

North CA: Swell fading Tues (11/25) from 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft) but being overrun by locally generated windswell. Swell Direction: 298-300 degrees

North Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (11/22) low pressure was building just southwest of the North Dateline Region winding up while producing northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas building. In the evening a gale developed while racing northeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds over the North Dateline region with seas 24 ft at 49N 170.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/23) 45-50 kt northwest winds were just south of the Central Aleutians with the core of the low over the North Dateline Region with seas 31 ft at 49.25N 171E in the HI and CA swell window. Fetch held stationary in the evening at 40 kts aimed well southeast with seas 29 ft at 49N 172.25E aimed southeast. The gale started falling southeast on Mon AM (11/24) approaching the dateline with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 49N 173.75E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch fell southeast over the dateline at 35 kts with seas 25-26 ft at 47.25N 176.5E targeting Hawaii well. On Tues AM (11/25) northwest fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 23-24 ft at 43.75N 176.5W aimed southeast and east. Fetch and seas fading in the evening from 21 ft at 44.5N 173.25W aimed southeast. Possible swell for HI and sideband swell for CA to result. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival later on Wed (11/26) building to 4.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading slowly Thurs (11/27) from 4.9 ft @ 14 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/28) from 4.1 ft @ 14 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/29) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/28) at 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0 ft) and likely buried in locally generated windswell. Swell fading Sat (11/29) from 2.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0 ft) with local windswell still in the mix. Residuals on Sun (11/30) fading from 2.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 295-300 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (11/26) low pressure is to be developing well off North CA with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves northeast while building off South OR with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (11/27) the low moves up to the PAcific Northwest Coast with south winds 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low starts moving into the Pacific Northwest with south winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10-15 kts for the reset of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (11/28) the low is to be moving inland over Oregon with northwest winds building from 15 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA but 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (11/29) high pressure take control with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA early but maybe just 10 kts right close to the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (11/30) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for most of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA but 20 kts off the coast for both. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (12/1) the gradient is to be fading with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA if not trending northeast.
Tues AM (12/2) north winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but northeast winds 5 kts are forecast for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level holding at 10,500 ft through Fri (11/28) then falling down to 7,000 ft Sat (11/29) dropping to 6,500 ft on Sun (11/30). Freeze level rising to 12,000 ft on Mon (12/1) then falling Tues down to 5,000 ft on Wed (12/3) then up to 8,500 ft beyond. No snow accumulation for Olympic Valley or Mammoth.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/25) no swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon AM (12/1) a new gale is to set up on the North Dateline region producing 30-35 kts north winds and seas building from 21 ft at 45N 179E aimed south. In the evening north winds to be 35 kts over a solid area with seas 25 ft at 42.25N 178W aimed south at Hawaii. On Tues AM (12/2) north winds to be 30-35 kts holding position with seas 27 ft at 52.25N 179.5W aimed south. Fetch and seas fading in the evening as the gale lifts north up into the Bering Sea. Something to monitor.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- WPac Pattern Changing
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline on into the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the dateline and KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/25) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA east to 170E. Moderate to strong east anomalies were east of the dateline. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at 170E then moving east on 12/3 pushing to 170W then holding there through the end of the model run on 12/11.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/24) Currently a moderate Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) holding position at modest status on days 5-10 of the model run moving to the dateline on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing. This is a first push of the Active Phase of the MJO in a very long time.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/25) - The models depict the Active Phase was moderate over the far West Pacific. The statistic model has it tracking east moving to either the East Pacific at strong status or very weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase easing over the West Pacific at strong status 4 day then fading to very weak status over the East Pacific 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/24) Today west anomalies and an Active MJO contour was filling the West KWGA to 170E with moderate east anomalies east of there. The forecast has west anomalies holding position and strength through 11/29 with 2 active contours setting up just west of the dateline then moving steadily east to a point south of California (120W) on 12/12 holding through the end of the model run with moderate west anomalies moving east on that same track. the Inactive Phase is to set up over the far West Pacific on 12/12 and beyond.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/25) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO (contours and west wind anomalies) were filling the KWGA with contours to a point south of California. The Active MJO is to continue tracking east stalled over the dateline through 12/22 with modest west anomalies filling the entire KWGA through that period. The Inactive Phase is to develop over the KWGA 12/12 tracking east through 1/13/25 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. Another Active MJO is forecast developing 1/2 holding through the end of the model run on 2/22 with moderate west anomalies still filling the KWGA. This is starting to look like a more normal pattern. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 135E and is forecast holding there through 1/20 then starting to ease east at the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to start easing east on 1/16 moving to 170W at the end of the model run.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (11/25) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E due to slackening of trades there and fading of the Inactive Phase of the MJO previously there. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 176W to 179W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing west moving from 122W to 125W. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface over most of the equatorial Pacific. And cold anomalies were building over a thin area at depth at -4 at 140W with warm water at the thermocline (150 m) holding steady west of 160W. In all cool waters are back but not growing due to fading of east anomalies and a recent Inactive Phase of the MJO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline (150 meters) east of 140W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 165W (previously 150W). -10 cms anomalies were embedded in that area on the equator from Ecuador to 145W. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern again, but it seems we're past the worst of it as it warms, and even at that it was not too bad. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is rebuilding over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/19) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 148W and losing coverage. Warm anomalies were west of 170W (previously 150W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/24) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 165E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/24): Temps were warming from Chile, Peru up to Ecuador then holding steady neither cooling or warming from the Galapagos out to 140W and neutral west of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.984 and previously was steady at -1.1 11/2-11/6. Previously temps were -0.7 10/24-11/1 and previously steady at -1.00 (10/13-10/20) then had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/25) Today's temps were easing down at -1.223 down from -0.973 (11/5) after falling to -1.087 (10/30) and had been hovering in this range since 9/15 . Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at -0.8 (week of 11/19) Previously temps were -0.7 (weeks of 11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (weeks of 10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.53 Oct, -0.47 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.78 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (11/25) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (was -0.95 but is -0.7). Temps are forecast falling slightly to -0.75 now through mid-Dec then rising to technically neutral early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps fading some to -0.75 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in early Jan then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Nov 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.649. Previous projections were -0.633 and -0.623. Temps to rise to -0.533 in DJF and 0.084 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.529 DJF and +0.543 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.538 up to -0.082 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/25) the Daily Index was positive at +7.63 and has been generally rising and mostly positive the past month.
The 30 day average was falling some at +16.34 and has been rising steadily from +9.49 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +9.25 and on the high side of ENSO neutral rising steadily from +4.48 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -2.40 Oct, -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.