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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Wednesday, November 25, 2020 6:35 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 2.3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/23 thru Sun 11/29

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Steady Storm & Swell Pattern Forecast
Models Light Up Longterm

On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 8.6 secs from 181 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 9.1 secs from 75 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 238 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.0 ft @ 8.9 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.1 secs from 246 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 279 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.1 ft from 297 degrees and 3.3 ft @ 19.6 secs from 314 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 21-27 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (013), 54.9 degs (SF Bar) and 54.0 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Wednesday (11/25) in North and Central CA a combination of North Dateline swell, building North Gulf swell and local windswell was producing waves at several feet overhead and trashed by northwest winds with whitecaps in control. Protected breaks were head high or so and a chopped warbled mess. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and lined up and very soft but clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to head high and lined up and peeling and clean. Pretty nice looking. Central Orange County had waves at chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to thigh high and clean and weak. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was small with a few waist high sets at top breaks and clean. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves chest high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (11/25) swell was poised to hit California from a small storm that developed in the Central and Northeastern Gulf on Sun-Wed (11/23) producing up to 45 ft seas aimed southeast. And another weaker one was right behind on the same path Tues-Thurs (11/26) in the Northwestern Gulf with up to 28 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast for the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (1/29) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east. And now a stronger one is on the charts Sat-Tues (12/1) with 51 ft seas tracking east over the Dateline and further south than anything so far.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Wednesday (11/25) the jet was consolidated pushing off Japan with winds building to 150 kts pushing due east over the dateline forming a small trough over the extreme Northwestern Gulf of Alaska offering some support for gale development there. East of there the jet split slightly with most energy ridging northeast over the Alaskan coast then falling south just off the coast of British Columbia before pushing inland over North CA offering no gale production potential. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to push east into the Northern Gulf into late Thurs (11/26) then vaporize offering just a little window to continue supporting gale production. But back to the west the jet is to continue pretty well consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds in the 160-180 kts range pushing flat east over the dateline but with no troughs indicated. Beyond 72 hours a trough is to develop in the above flow late Sat (11/28) off the Kuril Islands with winds building feeding that trough on Sun (11/29) to 190 kts and pushing east over the dateline offering great support for gale development. The trough is to move into the Western Gulf of Alaska on Mon (11/30) being fed by 180 kts winds and offering great support for gale development before starting to slowly weaken on Wed (12/2). And even at that time the jet is to be consolidated running due east on the 38N latitude line from Japan to the Central Gulf providing the first real window for a normal winter like pattern so far this Winter season.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (11/25) small swell from a gale that previously tracked over the North Dateline region into the Northwestern Gulf was fading in CA (see Yet Another North Dateline Gale below). Swell from a stronger storm that pushed through the Northern Gulf was poised to hit California (see North Gulf Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues PM (11/24) another gale is to develop in the extreme Northwestern Gulf with 30 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 50N 164W aimed east. On Wed AM (11/25) west winds were fading from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 26 ft aimed east at 53N 156W. In the evening the gale is to fade out with seas from previous fetch fading from 22 ft at 53N 152W aimed east. Small sideband swell is possible.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (11/28) building to 5.6 ft @ 15 secs (8.0 ft) holding through the day. Swell fading on Sun (11/29) from 5.9 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (11/30) fading from 4.3 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305-312 degrees

And another small gale is forecast developing in the far Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (11/27) with 45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians producing 34 ft seas over a tiny area at 51N 172W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east with 45-50 kt west winds building in the Northwestern Gulf with 37 ft seas building over a small area at 52.5N 166W aimed east. On Sat AM (11/28) west winds to be gaining footprint in the Northwestern Gulf at 40 kts with 37 ft seas at 52.5N 158.8W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 53.5N 150W aimed east. Something to monitor.


Yet Another North Dateline Gale
An ill-formed gale developed off the North Kuril Islands and Kamchatka on Wed AM (11/18) producing 30-35 kt west winds and seas to 23 ft at 50N 172E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts but with a secondary gale forming just south of the previous fetch producing west winds at 35-40 kts over a tiny area and seas from the original fetch at 21 ft over a small area at 48N 175E aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/19) a new fetch developed extending from Kamchatka to the North Dateline at 30-35 kts with seas 19-21 ft over that entire area with it's leading edge at 47N 177W aimed east. In the evening the low pushed east into the Western Gulf with 30 kt west winds over a solid area aimed east with 19-21 ft seas over a moderate area extending from 49N 170E to 46N 168W aimed east. Fetch faded on Fri AM (11/20) from 25-30 kts over a solid area in the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 18-22 ft over a solid area at 46N 162W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 25 kts with seas fading from 19 ft still over a decent sized area at 47N 157W aimed east. The gale faded from there.

North CA: Swell fading on Wed (11/25) from 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303-306 degrees


North Gulf Storm
A gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Sun AM (11/22) producing 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 45N 162W aimed east. Fetch built in the evening in the Northwestern Gulf at 45-50 kts from the northwest with seas 30 ft at 48.5N 162W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/23) the gale lifted northeast and started building in the Northern Gulf producing northwest winds at 45-50 kts and seas 42 ft at 52.5N 154.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east through the Northern Gulf with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 44 ft at 53.5N 146W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/24) the storm was falling southeast and fading with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 52N 142W aimed southeast. The gale was falling southeast in the evening positioned just off North British Columbia with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 52.5N 135.5W aimed southeast and outside (east of) the NCal swell window. Swell is radiating southeast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/25) building to 9.0 ft @ 17 secs (15 ft) at sunset and peaking about 10 PM but totally shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell holding till sunrise on Thurs (11/26) at 9.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (13.5 ft) and still shadowed and fading from there. Residuals forecast on Fri (11/27) at 6.2 ft @ 13 secs early (8.0 ft) and still shadowed and fading from there. Swell Direction: 311-319 degrees


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Wednesday (11/25) northwest winds were forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and Central CA early but in reality were much stronger. Winds are forecast building to 20-25 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception in the afternoon but north at only 10 kts for Cape Mendocino. Thurs (11/26) north winds to hold at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early a little off the coast then fading in the afternoon at 10 kts but holding at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino. Fri (11/27) light winds or light northeast winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA early holding all day. Light winds are forecast on Sat and Sun (11/29) turning light northwest 5-10 kts Sunday afternoon. Mon (11/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and down to the south end of Monterey Bay then15 kts for the remainder of Central CA early building to 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Tues (12/1) the wind machine starts again with north winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and off the coast south of there early but light nearshore pretty much holding all day. Wed (12/2) light winds to continue for all of North and Central CA but south 5 kts for Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0 inches, 0 inches, 0 inches, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level falling to 5,000 ft Wed into Thurs (11/26) rising Fri to 10,000 ft maybe dipping on Dec 1 to 5,500 ft then rising to about 7500 and holding after that.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (11/25) no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small but potent storm is forecast developing in the West Pacific on Sat PM (11/28) a bit off North Japan with west winds 55 kts and seas building from 35 ft at 42.5N 163.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/29) the storm is to be approaching the dateline with 55 kt west winds and seas building from 42 ft at 43.5N 173E aimed east. In the evening a broad area of 50-55 kt west winds are to be pushing east over the dateline with 49 ft seas at 44N 177W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/30) the gale is to be solid in coverage with 45-50 kt west-northwest winds and seas 49 ft at 44N 169W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 40-45 west winds over the Central Gulf with seas fading from 43 ft at 45N 160.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/1) west winds are to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 36 ft at 48.5N 152.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. The southern hemi is asleep.



MJO/ENSO Forecast


Inactive MJO Driving Increased Trades and Colder Anomalies

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/24) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak from the east over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and building to strong easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/25) strong east anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies holding rock solid filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/1. East anomalies were also over the East Pacific to a point south of California today and are forecast holding through 11/29 then backtracking to a point south of Hawaii. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to be getting progressively weaker.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/24) A weak MJO signal is present today over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates no significant change forecast for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests much the same thing but with the Inactive Phase very weak holding over the dateline for the next 15 days.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/25) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Indian Ocean today and is to track east to the East Pacific and very weak on day 15. The GEFS model suggests pretty much the same thing but with the Active Phase building in strength to modest status over the East Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/24) This model depicts a weak Active Phase (wet air) over the entire Pacific tracking east while fading pushing into Central America on 12/9. A weak Inactive Phase is to set up over the West Pacific on 12/14 pushing east and into Central America on 12/29. On 12/29 another weak Active Phase is to push over the West Pacific on 12/29 sliding east at the end of the model run on 1/3.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/24) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was peaking over the KWGA today with strong east anomalies over the core of the KWGA and reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to hold in coverage and strength filling the KWGA through 12/8 as the Inactive Phase pushes east and then out of the KWGA. Beyond moderate to strong east anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA and east to a point just southwest of California for the foreseeable future or at least through the end of the model run on 12/22.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/25 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was peaking over the KWGA today with east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to push over the KWGA through 12/19 producing east anomalies initially filling the KWGA and points east of there to Ecuador and slowly decaying in coverage over that duration. A modest Active Phase is to follow on 12/12-2/10 producing strong west anomalies in the KWGA 1/12-2/3 with east anomalies fading over the East Pacific starting 1/23. A strong Inactive MJO is to return 1/28 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 160E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 12/15 with a fourth contour line developing from 1/12-2/4. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage holding through the end of the model run and its eastern periphery easing east to 150E at the end of the model run. Its core is to remain locked at 80E. A second contour is to develop on 12/27-2/3. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year previous migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina that is not likely to be dislodged anytime soon. This is turning into a 2 year event.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/25) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 160E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east slightly to 178W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 137W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 160W at depth today but no warmth east of there and no sign of moving east anytime soon. The non-stop cold anomaly pocket at -3 degs was near 120W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 150E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 160E eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C at 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W building to -15 cms at 120W and -10 cms solid from Ecuador to 140W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/24) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Colder anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 105W to 140W and steady in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru through a small pocket of warming anomalies were indicated along southern Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/24): Temps were cooling in building pockets on the equator between Ecuador to 140W and steady west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (11/24) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea with markedly cool anomalies between 110-150W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/25) Today's temps were starting to rise to -1.356 after previously rising to a high of -0.650 on 11/15. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/25) Temps were steady today to -1.246 today after bottoming out at -1.654 on 11/3, beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/25) Today the model indicates temps at -1.45 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -1.92 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.40 degs in early Aug and stabilizing there. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -1.10 degs today, and are to hold into Dec, then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.89 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by June. Most models are suggesting a moderate to La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/25): The daily index was rising to +5.66. The 30 day average was rising at +6.96. The 90 day average was falling some at 8.06, suggesting the current fading Active MJO has had some limited impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/15):
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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