Wednesday, November 23, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 11.6 secs from 299 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 287 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 14.9 secs from 285 degrees. Wind south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 62.4 degs, 62.1 (Topanga 103), 62.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.6 (Del Mar 153), 63.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.4 ft @ 15.6 secs from 285 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 193 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 230 degrees. Water temperate was 59.9 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 15.1 secs from 308 degrees. Wind northeast at 12-14 kts. Water temp 55.2 (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.3 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 54.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 54.5 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Wednesday (11/23) North and Central CA had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and a little warbled with modest northwest winds at exposed breaks. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and lined up and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so and lined up and clean but soft. Central Orange County had sets at 1-2 ft overhead high and lined up and nearly closed out and clean with just a little texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to head high and lined up with good form and calm wind and real glassy conditions. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up if not closed out and weak and mushed. Hawaii's North Shore had sets up to chest high and somewhat lined up but a bit warbled and soft. The South Shore was waist high on the sets and fairly clean with some east warble running through it and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and lightly chopped from moderate east-northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Wednesday (11/23) Hawaii was getting the tail end of swell from a gale that developed west of the dateline Thurs-Fri (11/18) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed east and only made it a little way east of dateline. That swell is just past it's peak along exposed breaks along the US West Coast. And the first of 2 southern hemi swells were fading in California originating from a gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun (11/13) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. The second of those 2 swell is radiating north originating from a gale that developed taking the same track aimed northeast on Wed-Thurs (11/17) producing 31 ft seas aimed northeast. Up north another gale is developing in the Central Gulf on Tues-Thurs (11/24) producing 31 ft seas aimed southeast at Hawaii and 36 ft seas aimed east at the US West Coast. And another is developing tracking northeast over the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/24) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast developing just off Japan tracking east Thurs-Sat (11/26) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east. And a local gale is forecast northeast of Hawaii on Fri (11/25) producing 30 ft seas aimed back at the Islands. And yet another is forecast on the dateline falling southeast Tues-Wed (11/30) with 29 ft seas aimed directly at Hawaii. Fall is starting.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Wednesday (11/23) the jetstream was consolidated just over Japan but fragmented just east of the to the Western Gulf with a trough north of Hawaii being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale development. A big ridge was east of there over the US West Coast offering dry and stable air. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push steadily southeast and be cutoff north of Hawaii on Thurs-Fri (11/25) offering continued support for gale development. Also on Fri (11/25) the jet is to consolidate pushing off Japan creating a new trough off Japan being fed by 160 kt winds offering good support for gale development and holding together well into Sat (11/26) over the dateline before pinching off early Sun (11/27). Beyond 72 hours another trough is forecast developing on the dateline Tues-Wed (11/30) being fed by 140 kts winds offering support for gale development sliding slowly east.
On Wednesday (11/23) swell from a gale that developed over the West Pacific was all but gone in Hawaii and just past it's peak along the US West Coast, but weak (see West Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale the developed in the Gulf is to be impacting Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Gulf Gale below). And a local gale is forecast northeast of Hawaii (see Local Hawaiian Gale below).
And a brief lived gale is to develop on the dateline Wed PM (11/23) producing 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 36.25N 170E aimed east. Fetch is to lift northeast on Thurs AM (11/24) at 35-40 kts with seas 36 ft at 39.25N 176E aimed east and northeast. The gale is to fade in the evening with southwest fetch fading from 35 kts and seas fading from 33 ft at 42.5N 176.5W aimed east and northeast. Residual fetch fading Fri AM (11/25) in the Northwestern Gulf at 35 kts aimed mostly north with seas 28 ft at 42.5N 170W. Residual fetch fading in the evening. Something to monitor mainly for the US West Coast.
And starting Thurs AM (11/24) a storm is to develop just off North Japan with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 36N 151E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track northeast slowly with west winds 45-50 kts with seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 39.5N 158.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/25) the storm is to be lifting hard northeast with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas 40 ft at 42.75N 163E aimed east and still well west of the dateline. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 45-50 kts from the northwest still west of the dateline with seas 33 ft at 43N 163.75E aimed east. The gale is to track east on Sat AM (11/26) with 40 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 42.25N 167.75E aimed east. In the evening remnants of the gale are to be approaching the dateline with winds fading from 30-35 kts from the west and seas 27 ft at 40.5N 172.25E aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
West Pacific Gale
A gale developed off Japan Wed PM (11/16) producing 35 kt west winds with seas building 26 ft over a tiny area aimed east at 40.5N 163.25E and a long ways way from anywhere. On Thurs AM (11/17) the gale was tracking east with west winds 40 kts with 25 ft seas at 42.5N 167E aimed east. Fetch continued in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 43N 169.25E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/18) fetch was fading from 35+ kts from the west approaching the dateline with seas 28 ft at 42N 174.25E aimed east. In the evening winds continued at 35-40 kts from the west over the dateline with 27 ft seas at 43.25N 177.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/19) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 43.5N 176.5W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Small swell is radiating east.
Oahu: Dribbles on Wed (11/23) fading from 2.6 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 320 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/23) building to 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later and very inconsistent (4.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (11/24) at 3.8 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) and slow. Swell fading early Fri (11/25) at 3.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees.
A storm developed Tues AM (11/22) in the Central Gulf producing 50-55 kt northwest winds aimed at Hawaii and 40 kt west winds aimed at the US West Coast with seas building from 22 ft at 38N 164W aimed southeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 55 kt north and west winds were aimed at Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas 32 ft aimed at Hawaii at 40N 159W and 38 ft at 39.5N 156.75W aimed at the US West Coast. On Wed AM (11/23) the gale was lifting northeast fast with 40 kt northwest winds wrapping around it's core with 35-40 kt north winds west of there producing seas of 30 ft at 42.5N 153W aimed south at Hawaii and 31 ft seas at 41.75N 147.25 aimed at the US West Coast. In the evening the gale is to be racing northeast with 35 kt winds and seas 20 ft at 37N 155W aimed at Hawaii and 23 ft seas at 44N 144W aimed aimed at the US West Coast and British Columbia. On Thurs (11/24) the gale is to be impacting North Canada with 30-35 kt west winds and seas up to 23 ft mostly impacting North Canada at 52.5N 143W and also in the Northern Gulf at 45N 150W targeting the US West Coast. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/24) building to 9.8 ft @ 12-13 secs later (12 ft). Swell holding on Wed (11/25) at 10 ft @ 13 secs early (13 ft). Secondary swell possibly arriving beyond. 355-360 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on mid-day Fri (11/25) 6.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (10 ft) and holding. Swell fading Sat (11/26) 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 285-290 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/25) building to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Sat (11/26) from 2.4 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees
Local Hawaiian Gale
On Thurs PM (11/24) a gale is forecast redeveloping just 750 nmiles northeast of Hawaii producing 45 kts northeast winds over a small area aimed at the Islands producing 26 ft seas at 30N 149W aimed southwest. On Fri AM (11/25) the gale is to be falling south with 40 kts northeast winds and seas 30 ft at 28N 151W aimed at Hawaii well. The gael is to be fading in the evening with 35 kts northeast winds ands seas 25 ft at 26.5N 153W aimed at the Islands ands 400 nmiles out.
Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sat (11/26) building to 9.2 ft @ 13-14 secs midday (12 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/27) from 6.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (8.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (11/28) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Thurs AM (11/24) north to northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early turning calm in the afternoon.
- Fri AM (11/25) light northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early holding in the afternoon. .
- Sat AM (11/26) northwest winds are forecast 20-25 kts early for North CA and northwest at 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast 20-25 ks for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
- Sun AM (11/27) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 10 kts south of there over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA.
- Mon AM (11/28) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain developing before sunrise for Cape Mendocino falling south and fading through the day with maybe sprinkles reaching Santa Cruz at sunset. Light snow over Tahoe down to Mammoth late afternoon.
- Tues AM (11/29) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North Ca and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Wed AM (11/30) north winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and north to northeast south of there at 10 kts. In the afternoon west winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts for Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 28, 28, 23, and 6 inches starting late on Mon (11/28) continuing beyond.
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 12.000 ft through 11/24 then falling steadily to 1,000 ft on 11/28 rising to 8,000 ft on 11-29-11/30 then falling again to sea level on 12/2 and beyond.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
A gale formed over the Southeast Pacific producing small swell impacting California now (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
And another gale formed over the same area right behind the first (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (11/13) producing 40 kt southwest winds and 30 ft seas at 56.5S 133W aimed northeast. The gale lifting northeast in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 53.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. The gale fading and pushed east of the SCal swell window after that. Small swell to result.
Southern CA: Residuals fading on Thurs (11/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees
North CA: Residuals on Thurs (11/24) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 moving to 184 degrees
Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (11/16) producing 35 kt southwest winds over a broad area with seas building from 25 ft at 56.25S 124.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 56.5S 125.25W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (11/17) south winds were 40-45 kts solid over a broad aimed aimed north with seas 31 ft at 54.25S 122W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south with seas 28 ft at 53S 118W aimed north and barely in the SCal swell window. The gale moved east of the SCal swell window after that.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/24) late building to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (11/25) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-AM (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (11/26) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/27) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/25) building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (11/26) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/27) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees This swell likely to be buried in northwest swell hitting at the same time.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (11/30) a gale is to over the dateline falling southeast with 40 kts northwest winds ands seas building from 25 ft at 40N 175.25W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Upwelling Phase Trying to Hold
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA - SOI Falling Some
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/23) Modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA today but in retreat. The 7 day forecast calls east anomalies fading fast and nearly gone by 11/26 with weak west anomalies trying to develop then fading with weak east anomalies redeveloping on the dateline 11/28 and holding through the end of the model run on 11/30. The 2 week GFS model suggest moderate east anomalies over the KWGA fading on 11/26 with moderate west anomalies developing over the western half of the KWGA on 11/27 then fading with weak east anomalies returning on 11/30 pulsing through 12/7 then fading again and weak through 12/9.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/22) A moderate Active Phase of the MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it fading on day 5 then gone on day 10 and turning weakly Inactive but that too fading and a neutral pattern setting up on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with a neutral pattern on day 10 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/23) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the West Pacific and is to track east over the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east fast and reemerging over the Maritime Continent 15 days from now and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/23) The Active Phase (wet air) was tracking east over the KWGA and is forecast to continue tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Ecuador on 12/13. A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/8 and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/2.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/22) A weak Active MJO signal was trying to pus east into the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. Moderate east anomalies are to hold through 11/26 then dissipating. Then the Active Phase is to start building over the KWGA holding through 12/2 but not making much progress but with west anomalies developing in the KWGA and filling it 11/27-12/14. After that west anomalies are to lose some ground near the dateline but holding filling the Western KWGA west of 150E and if anything building to the east reaching 155E at the end of the model run on 12/20. This would be a significant development if it occurs.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/23) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive MJO signal was fading over the KWGA with weak east anomalies in control of the KWGA. This pattern is to generally hold through 11/26, then then Inactive Phase is to collapse on 11/28 with east anomalies collapsing 11/26 and west anomalies tracking over the entirety of the KWGA then and holding at least through Jan 12. a weak Inactive Phase is to push through the KWGA 1/8-2/3 with east anomalies weak in the KWGA 1/10-1/26. the ACtive Phase and west anomalies to follow through the end of the model run on 2/20. The big change we've been anticipating is on track starting 11/26 marked by the arrival of west anomalies filling the KWGA. The MJO signal is be generally weak. East anomalies are to be relegated east of the dateline by Dec. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/16 with the primary contour collapsing on 1/10. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/25 reaching east to 175E at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 177E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 154W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W and was at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 130W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 135W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 145W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 145W with it's core at 110W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 150W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 145W with a core of -15 cm anomalies between 110-130W and -10 cm anomalies easing east to 90W to 140W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 151W to Ecuador with a cold core between 115W-125W and easing east. It appears the stubborn cool pool is starting to track east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/22) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 25S. The coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/22): A stream of cooling waters extended west from Ecuador to 125W. Weak warming was developing along Peru and north of Tahiti. But overall the balance was towards cooling.
Hi-res Overview: (11/22) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 130W directly over the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters outside the immediate equator are in steep decline. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/23) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling at -1.930 after warming to -1.570 a few days around 11/17 and that after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps steady at -2.048 the lowest in weeks after rising to nearly -1.0 degs on 11/17, previously toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/23) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.957 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and up to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were rising at -1.037 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/23) - Temps are to be steady at about -1.00 degs in early Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.65 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the last week of Jan and up to +0.75 degs in August and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 the 1st week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.55 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the 3rd week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.55 degs in August. All this is a significant upgrade. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.921 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.732 degs in Dec and above the La Nina Threshold at -0.494 in Jan and -0.256 in Feb rising to +0.572 in July. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/23) the Daily Index was steady at +4.83 and has generally been at +1-0 or lower since 11/2. It was negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +5.80 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was stable at +14.33 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table