Monday, November 14, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 288 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 11.9 secs from 325 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 17.0 secs from 270 degrees. Wind west at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 62.2 degs, 60.3 (Topanga 103), 62.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 63.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 16.7 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.3 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 17.4 secs from 221 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.9 ft @ 18.1 secs late from 274 degrees. Water temperate was 61.5 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 6.2 ft @ 16.0 secs from 303 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temp 57.9 (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.9 (46026), 55.0 (SF Bar 142), 54.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Monday (11/14) North and Central CA had sets at 2-3 ft overhead with a few bigger sets and lined up and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble and inconsistent yet powerful. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and closed out and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was up to 1 ft overhead and lined up and a little warbled but with decent energy but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and clean and soft. Central Orange County had a few chest high sets and lined up and with some texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to thigh high and very weak. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore had dateline swell still hitting producing waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but with northeast windlump running through it. The South Shore was maybe waist high on the sets and warbled from easterly trades and weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high or so and chopped from solid northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Monday (11/14) Hawaii was getting fading swell and California was just past the peak of swell generated by a storm that developed on the dateline tracking east Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 41 ft seas aimed east then faded Sat AM (11/12) while tracking over the Central Gulf of Alaska with seas 26 ft and dropping. Another gale was right behind it tracking east over the dateline Sat-Sun (11/13) with up to 22 ft seas not offering much but started to redevelop in the Gulf Mon-Tues (11/15) with 23-26 ft seas falling southeast and targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. And yet another gale is forecast developing west of the dateline Thurs-Fri (11/18) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east but not making it over the dateline. Residual from this gale to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf Sun (11/20) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east over a tiny area. Minimal swell is forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday (11/14) the jetstream was consolidate pushing east off Japan but split before reaching the dateline with the northern branch pushing up into the Bering Sea then falling hard south over the Northwestern Gulf forming a trough offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to deepen with winds to 130 kts and holding into Tues (11/15) continuing to support gale development before pinching off on Wed (11/16). Beyond 72 hours Starting Fri (11/18) the jet is to be pushing decently off Japan starting to form a trough half way to the dateline with winds to 140 kts and easing slowly east into Sun (11/20) over the dateline being fed by 170 kts winds offering some continued support for gale development. That trough is to be reinforced with 180 kts winds late on Mon (11/21) effectively generating a new trough over the Northwestern Gulf offering much hope beyond.
On Monday (11/14) swell from a gale previously over the dateline was impacting Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale started developing over the far West Pacific tracking east and is forecast to building in the Gulf (see Possible Gulf Gale below).
A storm started developing just west of the dateline on Wed AM (11/9) starting to produce northwest winds at 45-50 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening a decent fetch of 45-55 kt west and northwest winds were building with seas building from 36 ft at 44.5N 175E aimed southeast. Fetch continued while moving east straddling the dateline Thurs AM (11/10) at 50 kts with seas 41 ft at 47.25N 178.5E aimed east-southeast. In the evening west winds to be 40-45 kts just east of the dateline and south of the Aleutians with seas 38 ft at 48.25N 171.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/11) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts s over the Western Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 49.5N 168.75W. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the west in the Northern Gulf with seas from previous fetch fading from 33 ft at 50.75N 159W. On Sat AM (11/12) the gale is to be gone and seas fading from 26 ft at 51.5N 152.25W. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Swell fading on Mon (11/14) from 3.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (11/15) fading from 2.6 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (11/14) building to 3.8 ft @ 16 secs (6.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading on Tues (11/15) from 3.8 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (11/16) fading from 2.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 304 degrees
Possible Gulf Gale
Starting Fri PM (11/11) another gale started building while pushing southeast off Kamchatka with northwest winds at 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 48N 169E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/12) 30-35 kt northwest winds were pushing southeast with seas 22 ft at 47.5N 171E aimed southeast and unimpressive. In the evening 30 kt west winds to be approaching the dateline with seas 21 ft at 48.5N 177E. On Sun AM (11/13) the gale was over the far Western Gulf of Alaska with 30 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 20 ft at 42N 175W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 22 ft at 43N 167.75W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/14) fetch was rebuilding over the Western Gulf at 40-45 kts with seas 23 ft at 47.25N 160.25W aimed southeast. The gale was falling south some in the evening with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 45.75N 158-75W aimed southeast at the US West Coast. On Tues AM (11/15) the gale is to be falling south over the Western Gulf with 35 kt north winds over a decent sized area and 21 ft seas at 42.5N 159W aimed south-southeast at Hawaii. The gale is to be fading in the evening with north winds 35 kts 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 22 ft at 42N 159.5W. On Wed AM (11/16) the gale is to fall south and fade with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 37N 156W. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on later on Tues (11/15) at 3.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (11/16) at 5.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.5 ft) and mostly holding through the day. Swell fading on Thurs (11/17) from 4.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (11/18) swell to continue at 4.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Sat (11/19) fading from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 360 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/17) building to 4.1 ft @ 14 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (11/18) from 3.4 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Tues AM (11/15) north to northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and Central CA.
- Wed AM (11/16) northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and north-northeast 10+ kts for Central CA. Light north to northeast winds are forecast in the afternoon for North CA and Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Thurs AM (11/17) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds northwest at 15 kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA.
- Fri AM (11/18) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early building to 15-20 kts for all of north and Central CA in the afternoon.
- Sat AM (11/19) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA.
- Sun AM (11/20) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA. Northwest winds 10 kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA.
- Mon AM (11/21) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North Ca and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 2, 2, 3, and 1 inches on Mon (11/21).
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to build to t 10.500 ft on 11/15 pretty much holding through 11/19 then falling to 5,000 ft on 11/21 rebuilding to about 8.500 ft 11/22 and beyond.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (11/13) producing 40 kt southwest winds and 30 ft seas at 56.5S 133W aimed northeast. The gale lifting northeast in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 53.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. The gael fading and pushed east of the SCal swell window after that. Small swell to result.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/21) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building some on Tues (11/22) to 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (11/23) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals fading on Thurs (11/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/22) building to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/23) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (11/24) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 moving to 184 degrees
Over the next 72 hours another and stronger gale is to follow over the Southeast Pacific starting Wed AM (11/16) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds over a broad area with seas building from 26 ft at 56S 130W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to build to 40-45 kts with seas 28-30 ft at 56.25S 124.5W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (11/17) south winds to be 40 kts solid over a broad aimed aimed north with seas 33 ft at 55.5S 119.75W aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the south with seas 28-30 ft at 51.5S 118W aimed north. The gale is to move east of the SCal swell window after that. Something to monitor.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a gale is to develop off Japan Wed PM (11/16) producing 45-50 kt west winds with seas building 30 ft over a tiny area aimed eat at 40.5N 162.25E and a long ways way from anywhere. On Thurs AM (11/17) the gale is to lift northeast some with west winds 40-45 kts with 30 ft seas at 42.75N 167E aimed east. Fetch is to fade some in the evening from 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 42.5N 169.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/18) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the west with seas 30 ft at 41.75N 174,75E aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Potentially more fetch is to redevelop on Sat PM (11/19) from the fetch above in the Northwestern Gulf blowing from the west at 45 kts with seas associated with seas 28-30 ft over a tiny area at 46N 171.25W aimed east. fetch lifting northeast at 40 kts Sun AM (11/20) with seas 30 ft at 49.5N 164.24W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. Low odds of this happening.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/14) Moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls east anomalies holding then building to strong status on the dateline 11/18 holding through the end of the model run on 11/21. The 2 week GFS model suggest moderate east anomalies over the KWGA in pulses through 11/21, then getting weaker with west anomalies in the western half of the KWGA on 11/30 and holding.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/13) A weak Active Phase of the MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it holding on day 5 then fading to neutral on day 10 only to return and at moderate status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a fairly strong Active signal over the KWGA on days 5 building to strong status on day 10 then fading some on day 15. .
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/14) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Maritime Continent and is to hold there for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east through the West Pacific starting on day 9 and at moderate strength and holding.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/14) The Active Phase (wet air) was starting to push east over the KWGA and is forecast to slowly tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Ecuador on 12/19. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/9 and weakly filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/24.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/13) A weak Inactive signal was developing over the far West KWGA today but with weak west anomalies holding over the western half of the KWAG to 150E. Modest to moderate east anomalies were east of there. The forecast calls for more of the same with west anomalies west of 140E and east anomalies solid east of there till 11/25 then fading to weak status. A change is setting up over the far West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral to weak west anomalies were limited to the area west of 160E with east anomalies east of there. This pattern is to generally hold with the dividing line easing west to 150E from 11/14-11/23. Then a big change sets up 11/25 with east anomalies disappearing from the KWGA completely and never to return through the end of the model run on 2/11 with weak west anomalies generally filling the KWGA. The MJO signal is weak and undefined and is to remain that way. East anomalies are to be relegated east of the dateline by early Dec. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/24 with the primary contour moving east and out of the KWGA early Feb. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/25 reaching east to 160E at the end of the model run on 2/11. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 152W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 140W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 140W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 148W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 148W with it's core at 115W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to the dateline. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a core of-20 cms at 122W with -15 cm anomalies between 110-140W and -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 154W to Ecuador with a cold core between 120-130W and stable. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/13) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 25S. A coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity quickly and steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/13): A broad area of steady warming water was indicated from South Chile up to Ecuador and extending west the whole way across the equatorial Pacific. Imbedded in that was a thin stream of strong warming water extending west from Ecuador to 115W with the warming having the upper hard. A significant warming trend was occurring just south of the equator ad on the equator. The trend was finally headed in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/13) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline today everywhere but directly over the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were warming slightly at -1.906 after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps rising the last 5 days at -1.350 degs today after toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.962 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were steady at -1.126 after falling to -1.128 degs on 11/3 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/14) - Temps are to be falling to -1.05 degs in early Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.70 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 1st week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.75 degs in July and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 the 1st week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.65 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the last week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.55 degs in July. All this is a significant upgrade, if it holds for a few runs. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/14) the Daily Index was falling at +0.82 and has generally been down below the trend of months previous. It was negative for 5 days prior dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +8.90 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +13.47 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table