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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, November 13, 2023 10:29 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/13 thru Sun 11/19
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Swell Hitting CA
Gale Developing off CA - Storm Forecast North of HI

BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, November 13, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 284 degrees. Water temp 80.1 (Barbers Pt), 79.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.4 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 8.1 secs from 78 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 12.0 secs from 287 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 248 degrees. Wind southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 64.9 degs, 60.4 (Harvest 071), 62.2 (Topanga 103), 62.1 (Long Beach 215), 61.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.8 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.0 ft @ 12.7 secs from 300 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.1 secs from 213 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.6 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.4 secs from 274 degrees. Water temperature was 60.4 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.5 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 6.7 ft @ 15.6 secs from 308 degrees. Wind east at 6-10 kts (46026) and southeast at 3-4 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.6 (San Francisco 46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 56.5 (1801589) and 59.7 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (11/13) in North and Central CA waves were 4 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and clean with light offshore wind. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and slightly lined up but soft and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and super clean with no wind and soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and mostly breaking on the beach but super clean with no wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some waist high sets and clean and lined up with good form when they came. North San Diego had a few waist high sets and occasionally lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high and lined up and clean with decent form but with just a little northerly lump running through it. The South Shore had sets at thigh high or so and weakly lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting tradewind generated windswell at head high and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (11/13) swell was mostly North California and sideband energy into Hawaii from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region tracking east into the Gulf Thurs-Sat (11/11) with 26-28 ft seas aimed southeast. And another gale is to develop off Central CA Mon-Wed (11/15) producing 29 ft seas aimed south and more at Hawaii than California. And another gale is forecast developing Sun-Mon (11/20) northeast of Hawaii with seas 33 targeting the Islands initially. A pattern is trying to emerge.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (11/13) the jet was pushing east off Japan with winds 140 kts but splitting just west of the dateline with most energy tracking northeast up into the Central Bering Sea then falling hard south forming a trough with it's aped off Central CA being fed with 110 kt winds offering support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that pattern is to hold with the trough off California continuing turning more into a backdoor variety trough offering limited support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to continue circulating off the coast before moving onshore on Sat (11/18). Back to the west the split in the jet is to move east and be north of Hawaii on Thurs (11/16) and then finally push over the US Coast on Sat (11/18). As that occurs the jet is to consolidate from Japan to the dateline but ridging again to the north reaching up to the Western Aleutians on Sat (11/18) then falling south being fed by up to 180 kt winds forming a steep trough on the dateline offering support for gale development. But that trough is to nearly pinch off on Sun (11/19) over the Western Gulf. But winds and the jet are to be pushing hard east off Japan at 160 kts then feeding into the remnants of that trough on Mon (11/20) over the Central Gulf perhaps supporting yet more gale development. An interesting pattern is starting to emerge.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (11/13) swell from the fourth in a series of gales previously in the Gulf of Alaska was starting to hit California (see 4th Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf off California (see East Gulf Gale below).

4th Gulf Gale
Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs AM (11/9) a gale developed over the North Dateline region with 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 50N 180W aimed east. Fetch was falling southeast in the evening as the gale moved to the Northwestern Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 27 ft over a small area at 49N 169.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/10) the gale was over the Central Gulf with 35-40 kt northwest winds and 28 ft seas at 48N 159.5W aimed east. In the evening a broad swath of 30-35 kts northwest winds were filling the Gulf with 20-25 ft seas over a broad area centered at 47.25N 146.5W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Sat AM (11/11) at 30-35 kts filling the Northwestern Gulf with seas 22 ft at 46N 140W aimed southeast. Fetch fading in coverage in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft up at 50N 153W aimed southeast. Residuals on Sun AM (11/12) with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 19-20 ft fading at 48N 150W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell continue on Mon (11/13) at 5.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (11/14) from 4.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading out on Wed (11/5) while being overtaken by local windswell from 3.7 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 303 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/13) at 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holds Tues (11/14) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (11/15) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees

 

East Gulf Gale
A gale was developing in the Eastern Gulf 1,000 nmiles west of North CA on Mon AM (11/13) producing north winds at 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 40N 143.75W aimed south and southeast. In the evening the gale is to stall well off off San Francisco producing north winds at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 35.5N 142W aimed south to southeast. On Tues AM (11/14) winds to build to 40 kts from the northeast targeting Hawaii with seas 29 ft at 35N 141.75W aimed south with sideband energy at Hawaii. In the evening more of the same is forecast with the gale stationary off San Francisco with 40 kt north and northeast winds and seas 28 ft at 36N 134.75W aimed south. On Wed AM (11/15) the gale is to be fading with a smaller area of 30-35 kt north winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 32.5N 136W targeting Hawaii more than CA. Residual 30 kts north winds are forecast fading in the afternoon with seas fading from 20 ft at 28N 135W aimed south. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Maybe some windswell to result Thurs (11/16) building to 4.5 ft @ 10 secs. Windswell fading Fri (11/17) from 4 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 35 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Tues AM (11/14) the center of the low is to be 650 nmiles off North CA with south winds 25 kts early for most of North CA down to Monterey Bay and 10 kts for the rest of Central CA. South winds continue at 15+ kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA down to Monterey Bay with a front just off the coast but withering and south winds 10 kts south of there. Rain for the SF Bay Area early building while covering most of North CA late morning and lifting north covering north of Bodega Bay overnight.
  • Wed AM (11/15) the low stalls 650 nmiles off Pt Conception with southeast winds 10+ kts for North CA early and south winds 10-15 kts steady for Central CA. South winds developing at 5-10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon southeast to east winds are forecast for North CA at 10-15 kts and south winds 20-25 kts for Central CA. South winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain developing for everywhere but Cape Mendocino late afternoon and getting solid in the evening. Showers developing for Southern CA.
  • Thurs AM (11/16) the low continues circulating off Pt Conception with east to southeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south-southeast winds 15-20 kts for Central CA early. South winds 10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon east to southeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for North Ca and southeast winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. South winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Scattered patchy rain for all of North and Central CA and Southern CA early fading through the day limited to Central CA at sunset. Light wet snow for the highest elevations of the Sierra early.
  • Fri AM (11/17) the low approaches Pt Conception with southeast winds 10 kts for North CA east and south winds 15 kts for Central CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon southeast winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North Ca and southeast winds 15+ kts for Central CA and south winds 5 kts for Southern CA early. Scattered rain for all of Southern, Central and North CA early building some into North and Central CA in the afternoon and then solid rain overnight for Central CA and up into the bottom half of North CA. Wet snow for the highest elevations of the Central CA in the afternoon and evening.
  • Sat AM (11/18) the low dissipates while moving onshore over Central CA with south winds 5 kts for North CA early and south winds 15 kts for Central CA and southwest winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is gone with northwest winds 5 kts of N and Central CA and clam winds of Southern CA. Rain for North and Central CA and showers for Southern CA early continuing through the day. Wet snow for the Sierra in the afternoon.
  • Sun AM (11/19) weak high pressure starts to arrive with northwest winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA down over Central CA. In the afternoon more of the same is forecast. No precip forecast.
  • Mon AM (11/20) northwest winds are to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 4, 5, 4, and 3 inches respectively all on Sat (11/18). .

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 30-40 degrees through Thurs (11/15) then falling to 25 degs Sat (11/18) before rising to 45 degrees beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Sat PM (11/18) producing 35-40 kt north winds and seas building. On Sun AM (11/19) north winds to build to near 50 kts 1100 nmiles north of Oahu with seas 25 ft at 33N 164W aimed south. The gael to hold position in the evening with 50 kt north winds and seas 34 ft over a small area at 37N 153W aimed south. Fetch is to drift north on Mon AM (11/20) with 40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 39N 150W aimed a bit east of the Islands but not at the US West coast yet. Something to monitor.

And way beyond the models are teasing of a classic El Nino fueled storm pattern developing. Not believable, but a nice tease.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/12) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong west over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/13) Very strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA today and have been since 11/7. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to hold at strong status over the core of the KWGA through 11/17 then fading while moving east of the KWGA. East anomalies are to take hold on 11/20 continuing through the end of the model run on 11/28.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/12) A weak Active MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active signal holding at weak status while moving to the dateline then stalling there on days 5, 10 and 15 while the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) starts building over the West KWGA on days 10 and 15. The dynamic model depicts a return to a neutral pattern on days 10 and 15. We think dry air over the far West Pacific is a result of the downward falling branch of the Walker Circulation impacting the surface at 120E producing dry west anomalies pushing towards the dateline on the equator pickup up moisture along the way. No change is likely anytime soon.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/13) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the West Pacific. The forecast indicates it is to move to Africa 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal tracking east over Africa and to the far West Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/13) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the West KWGA today. The forecast has a Active Phase (wet air) tracking east over the KWGA then moving east of the KWGA on 11/28. A moderate Inactive signal (dry air) is to push through the KWGA 11/28-12/18. But another moderate Active (wet air) pattern sets up over the KWGA the last day of the model run on 12/23. All this has low odds of occurring.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/12)
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was building strong over KWGA with strong west anomalies in control over the KWGA (since 11/5). The forecast has west anomalies and the Active Phase holding at strong status through 11/16 then pushing east over the East Pacific through 11/25. West anomalies in the KWGA are to fade turning light east 11/18 with weak east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO taking over 11/24-12/8. West anomalies are to return 12/8 holding through the end of the model run on 12/10 over the KWGA. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast holding through 11/15 then moderating at moderate status through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was fading over the KWGA but with modest to strong west anomalies in control. The weak Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 11/17 with moderate to strong west anomalies holding. A first pulse of the Active Phase is to develop 11/18-11/29. Another weak Inactive Phase is to develop 11/22-12/13. Weak west anomalies are to prevail. Then a more solid Active phase is to build 12/5-1/5 with moderate to strong west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase develops 12/22 in the far west KWGA then filling it through 1/30/24 with east anomalies developing through the end of the model run, This model has no clue what is actually happening. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and started peaking 10/15 forecast holding into 12/15, then moderating while pushing hard east on 12/27-1/15 into the West KWGA and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W at the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 145E at the end of the model run. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline nd moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with a 4th contour lines (starting 11/5). A 5th contour line has dissolved from the model. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour has faded from the model. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/13) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 167W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W (previously 158W). The 28 deg isotherm line was moving east at 139W (previously 145W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting deeper at 40m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 170E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +4 degs anomalies centered at 155W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +2 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +3 degs anomalies starting at 147W and +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting from 137W (previously 136W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 165W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 120W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170E (previously 165E) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5-10 cm anomalies were in the east from 175E east to 105W with weak anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/4) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 175E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.00-1.50 deg anomalies between 174W to 127W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/12) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador west out to 140W (previously 115W) but losing strength while being buffeted by east anomalies near the Galapagos. And moderate warm waters continued west from there to the dateline. The warm pool is looking fairly solid and building steadily. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/12): A small thin stream of strong cooling water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos west to 125W and then neutral west of there. Perhaps some energy is being removed from the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (11/12) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico but with strong warming pockets from Ecuador out to 120W now gone, due to east anomalies there. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/13) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling some at +1.657 after being up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) but have been generally steady in the +1.9 degs range since 9/28. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/13) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.268 after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). . Weekly OISST were steady at +1.8 degs (2 weeks running), the highest so far, and were at +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.75 in Nov..
Forecast (11/13) - Temps to are to fade to +1.65 degs into early Dec, then rising to +1.85 degs in mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.65 degs in mid-Dec (not likely) then rising back to +1.65 degs in Jan. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.777 degs today and it's the 7th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.836 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.004 in Nov and +1.979 in Dec while the statistic models show +1.836 and +1.769 degrees respectively. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/13) the Daily Index was negative at -32.77 and has been solidly negative 9 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling from -9.68 after peaking at -5.75 on 911/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at -10.71 (first day falling in a while) and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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