Thursday, November 11, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 188 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.7 (Barbers Pt).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 9.4 secs from 309 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.9 secs from 253 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-4 kts. Water temperature 60.8 degs, 60.8 (Topanga 103), 61.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 65.1 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 14.1 secs from 310 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 8.6 secs from 265 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 19.2 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 19.3 secs from 200 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 13.0 secs from 313 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 57.7 (Pt Reyes 029), 57.6 (46026), 57.9 degs (SF Bar 142), and 57.0 (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (11/11) North and Central CA had waves at shoulder to head high and clean and soft and the waves not feeling the bottom very well. Protected breaks had sets at chest high and clean with decent form but weak with a little warble intermixed. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and lined up and clean but weak and crumbled with no wind. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and clean and reasonably lined up but soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up and clean but soft and inconsistent with light north wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean with good form but weak. North San Diego had surf at waist high and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was near flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some waves from the south at chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up. The East Shore was flat and nearly chopped from southeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (11/11) Hawaii was seeing a few waves on the South Shore from southern hemi swell originating from under New Zealand, but nothing remarkable. California was starting to see the leading edge of that same swell. A bit of northwest windswell was intermixed mainly north of Pt Conception from a gale that developed over the Northeastern Gulf on Tues (11/9) briefly producing up to 26 ft seas mostly north of the NCal swell window. Another weak fetch fell southeast from the North Dateline region on Wed (11/10) briefly producing up to 22 ft seas targeting Hawaii then quickly faded. Small swell is radiating towards HI. Another weak gale is to form in the Northeastern Gulf on Thurs (11/11) producing 23 ft seas mostly targeting the Pacific Northwest. Beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast. A weak storm pattern is in effect.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (11/11) the jet was ridging hard north up beyond Kamchatka then tracking into the Bering Sea falling hard south over the dateline forming a trough over the Western Gulf of Alaska supposedly offering good support for gale development before turning east and tracking over Vancouver Island. Over the next 72 hours the Western Gulf trough is to then starting to pinch off on Fri (11/12) offering less to no support for gale development. A big ridge is to be holding down the West Pacific. By Sun (11/14) the jet is to be generally pushing east off Japan falling into a very ill-formed trough with its apex over Hawaii likely offering no support for gale development then ridging northeast pushing into British Columbia. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (11/15) the trough is to get a bit more organized with it's apex stationary just west of Kauai being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale development but then quickly collapsing on Tues (11/18) offering nothing. Beyond the jet is to generally be tracking east off Japan strengthening slightly on the dateline then falling apart over the Central Gulf with literally no wind depicted, reorganizing just off North CA and pushing over the coast there. In all a severe lack of wind energy and organization is indicated over the North Pacific for the next week likely caused by the Inactive Phase of the MJO over the Pacific (see MJO Discussion well below).
On Thursday (11/11) no meaningful swell was in the water traveling towards Hawaii or California from the North Pacific and no meaningful swell was hitting other than new southern hemi swell from New Zealand hitting Oahu's South Shore and Southern CA.
Over the next 72 hours a secondary fetch from the Dateline Gale (below) previously northwest of Hawaii raced east and started redeveloping off the Pacific Northwest on Thurs AM (11/11) producing 30-35 kt west winds and seas building. In the evening west winds are forecast at 30-35 kts over a decent sized area targeting British Columbia with 23 ft seas at 51.5N 138.5W and eat of the NCal swell window (325 degs). On Fri AM (11/12) the gale is to be moving into North BC. Low odd of windswell resulting for NCal.
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (11/13) building to 3.5 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft) early. Dribbles fading on Sun (11/14) from 3.5 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 295-315 degrees
Northeast Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (11/9) a small gale developed just off British Columbia producing 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas to 22 ft at 50N 137W and 21 ft seas at 47N 135W barely in the NCal swell window at 316 degrees. The gale was fading and moving inland in the evening with 26 ft seas at 50N 130W aimed east out of the NCal swell windswell. Maybe some low odds of tiny sideband windswell reaching down into California later in the work week.
NCal: Windswell arriving on Thurs (11/11) at 4.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading out through the day. Swell Direction: 316 degrees
On Tues PM (11/9) a new gale developed over the North Dateline region producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 47N 180W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/10) the gale was falling southeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 41N 173W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch was fading from 30 kts in the evening with 16 ft seas fading at 37N 167W. Maybe small swell is to result for Hawaii.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/12) building to 4.1 ft @ 11-12 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell peaking early Sat (11/13) 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft) fading through the day. Residuals on Sun (11/14) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees moving to 325 degrees.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (11/11) a weak high pressure regime is in control with northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts from Pt Arena southward down through Central CA early and holding in the afternoon.
- Sat (11/12) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA early a bit off the coast down to Santa Cruz and building to 15 kts nearshore in the afternoon over the same area. Less winds north and south of there.
- Sun (11/13) northwest winds are forecast at 15 ks for Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena early and 10 kts south of there to Big Sur and then 5-10 kts to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA but 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward if not less further down into Central CA.
- Mon (11/14) light northwest winds (10 kts or less) are forecast for all of CA early and continuing into the afternoon. High pressure is to be fading.
- Tues (11/15) weak low pressure is to be off the North Coast with light winds for Cape Mendocino early and northwest winds 5-10 kts south of there. No change in the afternoon. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino mid-day.
- Wed (11/16) north winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early with light winds south of there but northwest at 15 kts from Big Sur south to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena and 15 kts down to Pt Reyes. Northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for all of North CA early fading through the day.
- Thurs (11/17) high pressure take control again with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10 kts south of there.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0,0, 0, and 0 inches all on the night of 11/8 into early 11/9.
Freezing level 12,000 ft and holding unchanged through 11/15, falling to 10,000 ft on 11/16 and holding then falling to 7,000 ft or less on 11/19 dropping to 5,000 ft on 11/20.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Small swell from a gale previously under New Zealand is starting to hit Southern California and fading in Hawaii (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Tiny New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Mon AM (11/1) producing 32 ft seas in the evening at 58.5S 168.75E aimed northeast. Seas held at 32 ft on Tues AM (11/2) at 58.5S 178E aimed northeast. All is to be fading in the evening. Small swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Residuals on Thurs (11/11) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/11) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (11/12) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell holding on Sat (11/13) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sun (11/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing on the Dateline Wed AM (11/17) producing 23 ft seas at 42.5N 176W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Sub Surface Cool Water Volume Fading Some
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific and beating last years volume on 10/15/21, with no Kelvin Wave induced warm waters in sight. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the Western KWGA in early December and filling 40% of the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west. The high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but is to ease east some by Jan 2022. But it also seems likely cold surface waters are to hold well entrenched over the dateline through early Jan supporting bulletproof surface high pressure. No significant west anomalies seem likely to significantly impact the volume and depth of cold water under the Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is over.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/10) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/10) east anomalies were strong over the entire KWGA. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered just west of the dateline through 11/12 then fading to moderate strength only to rebuild to strong status on 11/14 holding through the end of the model run on 11/17.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/10) A neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects a modest Active MJO Phase developing over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run and building to strong status on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a far weaker Active Phase limited to the far west KWGA on days 5-15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/11) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Maritime Continent and is forecast tracking to the far West Pacific at day 15 of the model run and weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/10) The Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the far East Pacific with a neutral pattern over the West Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track into Central America on 11/16 with a moderate Active Phase (wet air) developing over the KWGA on 11/20. The Active Phase is to steadily track east and into Central America on 12/10. A stronger Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/5 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/10) This model depicts the Inactive Phase peaking over the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to be controlling the KWGA through 11/25 with east anomalies holding at strong or near strong status during that window. Beyond east anomalies are to be controlling the KWGA through then end of the model run on 12/8. A moderate Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent starting to enter the West Pacific 11/27 reaching 15% of the way into the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/11 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing through the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/27 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA peaking on 11/19. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/28-12/29 with west anomalies trying to push through but not filling the KWGA, reaching east to only 160E. The Inactive MJO is forecast moving into the KWGA 12/14 and holding through the end of the model run on 2/8 but with weak west anomalies tracking through the KWGA through the end of the model run. East anomalies are forecast developing in the Indian Ocean in late December and steady beyond. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold while slowly easing east with it's leading edge to 120W on 1/4 then stalling if not retrograding beyond. A broad single contour low pressure bias was established centered over the Maritime Continent on 11/11 at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA then starting to move east further into the KWGA on 12/27 reaching to 150E on 1/22 filling 40% of the KWGA and building east from there. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is still in control. But the model is holding out hope it will be dislodged some and shoved east starting late December. But the exact effect this will have on our weather is at best marginal. This Winters La Nina is to prevail.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 176E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 133W. Warm water has receded west and is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were pushing east and now steady at 150W. All sensors are down at 140W so this is a little suspect. Cool anomalies were fading from -2 degs C at 125W down 75 meters filling the East and Central Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but forming less of an impenetrable brick wall than previously. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates no warm water east of 155W with a bulletproof bubble of cold water at -4C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 150W at -5 cms with shrinking peak at -25 cms at 125W with shrinking area at -20 cms between 125W to 135W and -15 cms anomalies between 110W-140W. It seems that the coverage of negative anomalies is steadily shrinking. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return and stronger than last year. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina is stronger than last year (-2.5 degs C) and far larger in coverage, but as of 11/4 that coverage is rapidly collapsing centered at 130W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) all but gone.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/10) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator building along Chile and Peru then turning west thinly at the Galapagos tracking west then building in earnest from 115W to 160W and weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was steady. A homogenous area of warm water was fading some from Ecuador west just north of the equator to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/10): Temps were warming weakly along Chile and Peru. Temps were cooling over a thin stream from the Galapagos out to 110W then broader pockets from there to 135W
Hi-res Overview: (11/10) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator weakly from the Galapagos to 115W then stronger out to 160W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island but weaker than previous. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/11) Today's temps were falling some -1.079 after falling to -1.112 on 11/2, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/11) Today temps were down slightly at -0.764 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Temp have been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/11) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.95 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.50 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/11): The daily index was positive at +21.01. Previous notable peaks were at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was rising to +8.46 after falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +8.80 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table