Saturday, November 9, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.4 secs from 194 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 10.9 secs from 341 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 10.5 secs from 277 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 6.1 secs from 315 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 11.1 secs from 248 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 10.5 secs from 258 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.1 secs from 270 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 54.3 degs (013) and 57.2 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (11/9) in North and Central CA Gulf windswell was producing waves at waist to near chest high and pretty lumpy and warbled and foggy with light local wind. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean and fogged in. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and clean but with winds lump intermixed. In North Orange Co tiny swell was producing waves at occasionally waist high and weak but clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were small with some sets to maybe waist high and weak and clean with wind lump intermixed. North San Diego was thigh high and clean but with wind lump intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore was small with rare waves at waist to chest high and clean and soft. The South Shore was good with set waves head high and clean and lined up and peeling. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and clean with no wind early.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (11/9) in California limited westerly swell was weakly hitting from a cutoff low previously northwest of the Hawaiian Islands Sat-Sun (11/3). Some small fragments of of this swell were still hitting Hawaii too. A small gale developed in the Western Gulf Thurs (11/7) with up to 22 ft seas forecast aimed mostly east. Another small gale developed on the dateline falling southeast Thurs-Fri (11/8) with 20 ft seas over a small area targeting Hawaii. A small gale is to develop in the Central Gulf on Sun-Mon (11/11) with up to 25 ft seas aimed east. And maybe a stronger and broader system is to develop in the Western Gulf Mon-Wed (11/13) with up to 45 ft seas aimed east. And another gale is to follow pushing over the dateline on Thurs-Fri (11/15) with 43 ft seas over a modest area aimed southeast. And maybe another to follow pushing off the Kuril Islands on Sat (11/16) with 28 ft seas aimed east. Down south a small gale developed below Tahiti Sun-Mon (11/4) with up to 30 ft seas aimed north and northeast. Small swell is radiating north and starting to hit Hawaii. Otherwise nothing to follow. The focus continues to be the Northern Hemisphere as would be appropriate for the time of year.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (11/9) the jetstream was consolidated ridging slightly while tracking off Japan with winds to 190 kts pushing over the dateline then falling into trough with it's apex 900 nmiles north of Hawaii offering some support for gale development there. East of the trough the jet was lifting northeast eventually pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Overall the jet looked the best is has all Fall. Over the next 72 hours the trough north of Hawaii is to push east some and pinch off later Mon (11/11) and no longer offering support for gale development at that time. But a new trough is to be forming on the dateline Mon PM (11/11) being fed by a pocket of 140 kts winds tracking east into Tues (11/12) and winds building to 170 kts offering good support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/13) that trough is to be losing identity in the Central Gulf with support for gale development fading out. But the jet is to be consolidated across the width of the North Pacific running east on the 37N latitude line with a new trough building on the dateline Thurs (11/14) while winds build to 210 kts off Japan and starting to spill into that trough offering good support for gale development and pushing east. That trough is to pinch off in the Central Gulf on Sat (11/16) and fade. But a consolidated jetstream flow is to be in place still running east of the North Pacific on the 40N latitude line with a pocket of 180 kt winds on the dateline. A promising situation is developing.
On Saturday (11/9) no swell of interest was hitting either California or Hawaii. But small swell from a gale previously in the far Western Gulf was radiating south and east (see Small Gulf Gale below). And small swell from another tiny gale previously on the North Dateline region was tracking towards Hawaii (See Small North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours an improving gale pattern is to be developing. First up is a Primer Gale in the Gulf (see Gulf Primer Gale below). A far broader and stronger system is to follow (see Western Gulf Storm below).
Gulf Primer Gale
A small gale is to start building in the Central Gulf on Sun AM (11/10) with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building. In the evening 40 kt west wind are forecast in it's southern quadrant aimed east with seas building to 25 ft at 43N 147.5W. The small gale is to lift north on Mon AM (11/11) with 35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 45.5N 142.5W aimed east. The gael is to fade from there. Small swell to result targeting Central CA and points northward.
North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (11/12) after sunset and peaking mid-morning on Wed (11/13) with pure swell 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft). Residuals fading on Thurs AM (11/14) from 3.6 ft @ 11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 294 degrees
Western Gulf Storm
A broad gale is forecast developing in the far Western Gulf fueled by the remnants of Super Typhoon Halong on Mon AM (11/11) with 35 kt west winds and seas building from 18 ft at 38N 173W aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt northwest winds are forecast developing with the gale lifting northeast and seas building from 22 ft at 41N 163.5W aimed east. Tues AM (11/12) west winds are to be 55-60 kts over a solid area in the extreme Northwestern Gulf with seas 45 ft at 46.5N 162W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 55 kts from the west with seas holding at 44 ft over a solid area aimed east at 46N 161.5W. The gale is to be fading Wed AM (11/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 40 ft at 46N 159W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the west in the evening with seas fading from 33 ft at 46N 156W aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/14) the gale is to be fading with 30-35 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 46N 151W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Small Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing in the Western Gulf on Wed PM (11/6) generating a small area of 30-35 kt northwest winds falling southeast with seas 20 ft over a small area at 46N 170W. On Thurs AM (11/7) the gale held with 30-35 kt northwest winds building in coverage but still only over a smallish area with seas 21 ft at 44N 165W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east and fading fast with 30 kt west winds over a small area and seas fading from 19-20 ft at 42.5N 161W aimed east. The gale is was gone by Fri AM (11/8). Primary target is to be the US West Coast. Something to monitor.
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon 6 AM (11/11) with swell building to 2.8 ft @ 13 secs (3.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Tues AM (11/12) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees
Small North Dateline Gale
Another small gale developed west of the Northern Dateline region starting Thurs AM (11/7) with 35 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 20 ft up at 49N 173E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale fell southeast with 35 kt northwest winds over a small sized area and 20 ft seas at 46N 179E aimed southeast. Fetch faded Fri AM (11/8) with northwest winds dropping from 30 kts and seas fading from 17 ft at 42N 175W. The gale dissipated from there. Primary target was Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat late afternoon (11/9) building to 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell peaking before sunrise Sun AM (11/10) at 4.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft) then slow fading through the late morning. Residuals on Mon AM (11/11) at 3.6 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 340 degrees
On Sat (11/9) northwest winds were building at 15 kts along the Central CA coast early expected pushing up into North CA in the afternoon starting to produce minimal windswell. No east winds capable of producing windswell are forecast for Hawaii. On Sun (11/10) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts over all of North and Central CA early in patches building to 20 kts over North CA later with windswell coming up some. No windswell production is forecast for Hawaii. On Mon (11/11) north winds are to be fading from 15 kts mainly off the North CA coast early with windswell generation fading out. No windswell is forecast for Hawaii. No other windswell production is forecast through Tues (11/12) for CA or HI.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (11/9) light winds were occurring along the North California coast but with north winds 15 kts along Central CA and forecast building over all of North CA later. On Sun (11/10) northwest winds to holding in patches of North and Central CA at 15 kts building to 20 kts over North CA later in the afternoon. Mon (11/11) north winds are forecast at 15 kts early over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena and extending south well off the Central Coast fading to 15 kts over Cape Mendocino later and lighter south of there. Light winds on Tues-Thurs (11/14) with winds turning south 10-15 kts for North CA Thurs AM. Fri (11/15) a light northwesterly flow is forecast early for all of North and Central CA building to 15 kts solid in the afternoon. Sat (11/16) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts nearshore early for all of North and Central CA building to 15 kts solid later. No precipitation forecast over the state except for light rain for North CA Thurs afternoon (11/14) into the early evening associated with a weak front fading over the area there. Otherwise high pressure is to be in control.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch is occurring. Swell from a small gale previously south of Tahiti is tracking north towards Hawaii (see Small Central Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Small Central Pacific Gale
A small gale developed on Sun PM (11/3) east of Northern New Zealand and south of Tahiti producing 45 kt south winds over a small area aimed north with seas building from 24 ft at 38N 160W. On Mon AM (11/4) fetch held position and built in coverage at 40 kts from the south and southwest with seas building to 30 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Small swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (11/9) with swell building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later. Swell peaking on Sun (11/10) at 3.1 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (11/11) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (11/12) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is to be developing Tues PM (11/12) just off North Japan with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 18 ft at 38N 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/13) northwest winds to build to 45-50 kts and seas 22 ft at 41N 163E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to build to storm status while falling southeast just west of the dateline with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 41.5N 173.5E aimed east-southeast. The gale is to falling southeast fast on Thurs AM (11/14) with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 43 ft at 39N 179.5E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. in the evening fetch is to be fading some at 35-40 kts northwest of Hawaii with 39 ft seas at 36.5N 174W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts on Fri AM (11/15) with seas 33 ft at 34N 168W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
And yet another gale is to building off Japan on Sat (11/16) with 30 kt west winds and 20 ft seas at 40N 155E aimed east.
On Wed (11/13) a small area of north winds at 20 kts is forecast off North CA extending south to Pt Arena perhaps generating small windswell for exposed breaks in North and Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Thurs (11/14) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for either CA or HI. On Fri (11/15) high pressure and north winds are forecast building along the North and Central CA coast early afternoon to 15+ kts later starting to producing northerly windswell at exposed breaks. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Sat (11/16) northwest fetch at 15 kts is forecast just off the North and Central CA coast producing small northwest windswell. No east fetch is forecast for Hawaii.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Active MJO Building
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA on the dateline to 160E then fading but still easterly west of there. Anomalies were modest easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific then moderate easterly on the dateline to 160E then weaker easterly from points west of there.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/9) westerly anomalies were weak filling the KWGA but moderate at 160E. Easterly anomalies had faded out. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding solid at 150E till 11/12 then fading and moving east holding on the the dateline at the end of the model run on 11/16. But weak east anomalies are to start building in the from west on 11/14 pushing east to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/8) A building Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today and filling it. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to fade slightly over the KWGA on day 5 and shrinking while moving to the dateline at day 10 and fading but still present there at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase starting to build over the far West Pacific solidly at day 10 and holding on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/9) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the far West Pacific and is to migrate through the West Pacific while fading some starting at day 4 and very weak over the Atlantic at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with a far quicker easterly pace reaching the West Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/9) This model depicts a modest Active MJO over the Central Pacific today. The Active Pattern is to track east pushing into the Central America still modest in strength on 11/24. A strong Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 11/19 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/14. A new moderate Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific 12/9 tracking east into the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/8) This model depicts moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA today pushing east. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate strength in the West Pacific holding through 11/15 and then moving over the entire equatorial Pacific through 11/21. Beyond weak west anomalies are to hold in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/6 but with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean but not pushing east into the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/9) This model depicts the Active Phase Phase of the MJO was building over the far West KWGA with west anomalies stating to fill the Western KWGA today. The Active Phase is to track through the KWGA through 11/21 with west anomalies forecast in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to develop 11/22 holding through 12/9 followed by another weak Active Phase 12/7-12/25 with west anomalies holding through the entire period. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop 12/25 in the West Pacific tracking east and holding through 1/15 with weak west anomalies fading out on 1/12 and a mostly neutral anomaly pattern following through the end of the model run on 2/6. Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/27 then easing east and moving into the KWGA in early January moving to 165E on 1/5 hold then there while fading and gone by the end of the model run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but has disappeared and reappeared periodically over the past month. Today it is back holding 12/21-1/20. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/9) Today in the far West Pacific water temps previously at 31 degrees reaching east to 162E have disappeared. The 30 deg isotherm was still backtracking to 173E while the 29 deg isotherm was also backtracking to 173W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 162W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 107W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 166E and a broader one at +3 degs centered at 110W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east to 85W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W just off Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present limited between 135W to 85W at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru. No anomalies were under the dateline. A mostly neutral sea height pattern is setting up.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/8) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru but with weak warm anomalies along Ecuador and building west over the Galapagos. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Peru west to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today and only weakly present mainly between 80W to 100W mostly south of the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/8): Today a small weak pocket of cooling temps was present between Ecuador to the Galapagos. Otherwise a steam of weak warming was from Peru tracking west just south of the equator out to 120W. A neutral trend was west of there on the equator. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming but mainly just neutral.
Hi-res Overview: (11/8) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator just touching the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there mainly north of the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating. A neutral coupled water/atmospheric pattern appears to be setting up.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/9) Today's temps were stable at -0.736 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/9) Temps were rising today at +0.408 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/9) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast falling to +0.25 degs on Jan 1 and holding near there to May 1 2020, then fading to +0.10 July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/9): The daily index was negative today at +11.01 and has been mostly negative the last 15 days. The 30 day average was negative but rising at -4.37. The 90 day average was falling some at -8.38, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table