Saturday, November 10, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 9.0 secs from 171 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 9.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 12.6 secs from 338 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 13.8 secs from 190 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 4 kts. Water temperature 66.6 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 255 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.6 ft @ 17.0 secs from 215 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.6 ft @ 17.4 secs from 185 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 198 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 11.9 secs from 288 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was north at 6-8 kts. Water temp 57.0 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (11/10) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high on the peaks of the sets and soft and relatively clean and lined up with modest northeast winds early. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and mushed and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and clean. In North Orange Co waves were up to maybe waist high and breaking on the beach and clean. South Orange Country's best breaks were flat to rarely waist high and clean. In North San Diego surf was thigh high and clean and weak. It looks like winter without the waves. Hawaii's North Shore was getting larger raw warbled windswell with waves 3 ft overhead on the sets at top breaks but horribly warbled if not chopped and unrideable. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting north windswell with waves 2 ft overhead and chopped from light moderate north-northeast winds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (11/10) no swell of interest was hitting California. Hawaii was getting raw north windswell from a cutoff low previously north of the Islands on Fri (11/9) but with poor conditions. Looking forward a gale remains forecast to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska falling southeast Sat-Mon (11/12) with seas building to 30 ft then pushing east Tues (11/13) with seas fading from 26 ft aimed east. Possible modest swell to result for Hawaii and a little bit more for exposed breaks in California. And maybe a weaker system to follow over the North Dateline region. Otherwise a fading Inactive Phase of the MJO is to keep a cap on swell development for a little bit more.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday AM (11/10) the southern branch of the jetstream was weak generally paralleling the northern branch and centered down near 30N. The influential northern branch was ridging north over Kamchatka then falling steadily southeast and building in strength, with winds to 130 kts as it pushed south of the Aleutians over the dateline falling into a preexisting trough with it's apex 700 nmiles north of Hawaii and merging with the southern branch offering developing support for gale development. from there the jet split again with the northern branch pushing hard north up into Alaska then pushing southeast down the coast of British Columbia and inland over the Pacific Northwest while the southern branch pushed east into Baja. only the trough developing north of Hawaii held any support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to be the main area of interest, with winds in it building to 140-150 kts on Sun (11/11) offering much better support for gale development with winds and the trough pushing east over the Central Gulf while fading through Mon (11/12) and then dissipating Tues (11/13) in the northeasterly Gulf. Decent support for gale development is expected during that timeframe. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/14) the trough is to wash out with the jet going back to a split pattern with the northern branch generally tracking east on the 45N latitude line from just west of the dateline into Vancouver Island and the southern branch on the 28N latitude line. A bit of a trough is to try and be organizing over Japan on Wednesday with the 2 branches merged there, but quickly disintegrating by Fri (11/16) with the jet splitting on the dateline. And a trough is to try and build in the northern branch over the Gulf of Alaska on Thurs-Fri (11/16) being fed by a small pocket of 140 kts winds, but quickly pinch off. Limited support for gale development is possible there. By Sat (11/17) the jet is to be a little more cohesive tracking east from Japan and almost consolidated to the dateline, then splitting there but with not as much distance between the two streams through the Gulf and with hints of a weak broken trough trying to push inland over North CA then offering some potential for minima local weather there. In short, the hangover from La Nina and the Inactive Phase of the MJO is suppressing wind energy injection into the jetstream causing it to split and making it non-supportive of gale development. But as the Inactive Phase weakens, and as we move deeper into a late Fall pattern the La Nina component with also start failing, increasing potential for energy and trough development.
On Saturday AM (11/10) windswell was arriving in Hawaii from a fetch previously north of the Islands (see Hawaiian Low Pressure below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Sat PM (11/10) a new gale is to be developing while falling southeast from the Central Aleutians over the Western Gulf with winds 30 kts over a solid area with a tiny core at 35-40 kts with seas 20 ft over a small area at 47N 172W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/11) the gale is to build more with a decent fetch of 35 kts extending southeast from the Aleutians with a few pockets to 40 kts and seas 23 ft at 47N 170W aimed southeast targeting mainly Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to build over a broad area at 35-40 kts extending from the Aleutians southeast to a point 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas up to 28 ft over a reasonably broad area aimed southeast centered at 48N 168W. On Mon AM (11/12) northwest winds to hold at 35-40 kts aimed more east now and over not as large an area with seas to 30 ft @ 45N 165W aimed southeast. In the evening west winds are to be 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 159W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/13) the gale is to track east with winds 30-35 kts mainly in one pocket from the west with seas fading from 27 ft at 46N 152W aimed east. The gale is to fade fast from there while tracking northeast with seas 24 ft at 48N 144W. The gale is to dissipate from there. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast if all comes to pass as forecast. Something to monitor.
A small fetch started developing 750 nmiles north of Hawaii on Wed PM (11/7) associated with a cutoff low pressure system there producing 35 kt north winds over a tiny area aimed south with seas building. On Thurs AM (11/8) the gale was building producing 35-40 kt northeast winds over a small area with 18 ft seas at 37N 160W aimed south-southwest and somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts over a decent sized area with 20 ft seas aimed south at 36N 160W. On Fri AM winds were fading from 30 kts aimed south over a decent sized area with seas fading from 20 ft at 36N 161W. By evening the gale is to be fading out with 18 ft seas fading at 35N 162W aimed south.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (11/10) with swell 5.6 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continues on Sun (11/11) at 6.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/12) from 5.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 350 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (11/10) high pressure at 1032 mbs was just off the coast of Vancouver Island ridging southeast generating a pressure gradient and producing north winds at 25 kts over Cape Mendocino producing north windswell down into Central CA with light north winds 10 kts or less from Pt Arena southward. Then on Sun (11/11) low pressure is to be building in the Western Gulf with a front 900 nmiles off North CA and a weak wind pattern over and off the entire US West Coast. No windswell production is expected. The front is to lift north on Mon (11/12) and remain away from the US Coast with a weak pressure and wind pattern setting up. No change on Tues (11/13) with a weak pressure and wind pattern holding. Wed (11/14) weak high pressure is to set up off the Central CA coast ridging northeast with north winds building to 15 kts over North and Central CA later. Thursday (11/15) north winds to continue at 15 kts over Cape Mendocino streaming south but remaining decently well off the coast from Bodega Bay southward. Light winds nearshore over that area and no windswell resulting. Friday (11/16) a light north flow at 5 kts is forecast for all of North and Central CA. Saturday (11/17) theoretically low pressure is to develop 500 nmiles off Monterey Bay pushing east with dead calm winds over the CA coast.
On Saturday (11/10) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a tiny gale is to develop in the Northwest Pacific on Fri AM (11/16) producing a small area of 35 kt west winds with the gale tracking east and seas building. In the evening fetch is to build to 40 kts just south of the Aleutians but still only half way to the dateline with seas building to 22 ft at 52N 170E pushing east. The gale is to track east from there with a broader fetch of 35 kt west winds pushing over the dateline with seas to 26 ft at 48N 179E aimed east. Low odds from small swell to result for Hawaii and exposed breaks in California.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
SST Warming Steadily - Inactive MJO Holding
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and beyond, but could not sustain itself, suggesting the demise of La Nina but not yet turning towards El Nino.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2018 = 6.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino develops as forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes established in the Sept timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +1.0 deg range, there is good probability for enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with an increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/9) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading while pushing over the dateline, then mixed light east and light west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific, then turning modest westerly on the dateline and moderate westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/10) moderate west anomalies were building over the core of the KWGA with east anomalies on the dateline and points east of there. The forecast has the same pattern holding for the next week with weak to modest west anomalies in the KWGA and east anomalies building on the dateline but not reaching west beyond 175E, and basically not significantly affecting the KWGA. But there's no indication of any solid westerly wind event occurring or forecast in the next week.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/9) A weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the dateline and fading while pushing east. The statistical model indicates the Inactive Phase is to push east and out of the KWGA 5 days out with the Active Phase of the MJO starting to push into the far West Pacific with the Active Phase building steadily peaking in the West Pacific at day 10 but still holding decently into the end of the model run at day 15. The dynamic model has the Active Phase being far less defined peaking at day 10 but very weak, then gone with the Inactive Phase redeveloping in the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models are a bit divergent.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/10) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modestly strong over the East Indian Ocean and is to track quickly east pushing over the Maritime Continent 4 days out then fading dramatically while pushing east through the West Pacific 2 weeks out. The GEFS model depicts a variation on the same thing. The 2 models are generally in sync.
40 day Upper Level Model: (11/10) This model depicts a modest strength Active signal was developing in the West Pacific while the Inactive Phase was moving over Central America. The Active Phase is to continue tracking east weakly over the Central Pacific then pushing over the East Pacific and into Central America on 11/30. After that a very weak Inactive Phase is to again set up over the West Pacific on 11/30 and track to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/9) This model depicts east anomalies were all but gone over the far West Pacific with moderate plus strength west anomalies building just west of the dateline with weaker west anomalies filling the rest of the KWGA. West anomalies are to build some and hold solid in the KWGA through 11/23. After that west anomalies are to hold but far weaker in the core of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/7. That said, weak east anomalies are to be developing on the dateline and in the far West Pacific in pockets 11/23 through the end of the model run. This run suggests that no clearly defined El Nino is to develop.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/10) This model depicts weak east anomalies were all but gone and limited to just on the dateline with modest west anomalies developing in the core of the KWGA today with no clearly defined MJO signal present. After that weak west anomalies are to build modestly in the heart of the KWGA with no discernible MJO Phase present. West anomalies are to holding for the foreseeable future through 1/24/19 and at WWB status through the most of January. After that west anomalies are to dissipate starting 1/25 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO becoming apparent starting 1/29 through the end of the model run on 2/7. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east over California to 115W and forecast holding beyond while slowly easing east, but still centered over the dateline at the end of the model run. A 4th contour line previously forecast to to develop in the 12/22-1/21/19 period is now depicted to show up for a week or two around 1/29. but we doubt it will return. We're beginning to think this whole El Nino setup is a bit overblown on this model and that it will not develop, or develop only weakly. The atmosphere and ocean are theoretically slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias in the Pacific Ocean, but there's no objective evidence of it. If it hasn't happened yet (by Nov 1), it's doubtful there will be significant weather influence even if it does develop. Still this pattern is slowly becoming more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific regardless of whether El Nino develops, especially compared to the 2 previous years given that we're still moving towards Winter and La Nina is gone. Our assumption is a normal Winter pattern will result, but nothing more.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/10) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs solid steady today at 180W, having retrograded from there the 2 weeks prior. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W but today was moving east at 154W from 156 on 11/6. The 24 deg isotherm was 125 meters deep at 140W then getting progressively shallower east of there but now pushing into Ecuador. It seems that Kelvin Wave #2 had already peaked in the West Pacific, and temps were retrograding, but starting 11/8 they were surging east again and holding today. Anomaly wise warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific with Kelvin Wave (#2) extending from 180W at +3 degs building to +4.0 degs centered at 110W down 90 meters then pushing into the coast of Ecuador. This is likely the peak of the Kelvin Wave cycle for this El Nino. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 paints the same picture with the Second Kelvin Wave starting in the West Pacific near 175W pushing down under the dateline with building temps peaking at +5.0 degs at 115W and then pushing into Ecuador. A small pocket of neutral anomalies that was in the far West Pacific just east of the Maritime Continent appears to be getting warmer with warm anomalies now positioned at 135-160E down 100 meters. Kelvin Wave #2 was breaching the surface from 100W to 155W solidly with secondary solid warm anomalies starting to fill the entire region on the equator from 100W-165E. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Positive anomalies were solid from north of New Guinea over the Dateline and into Ecuador and broad in coverage peaking at +10 cms from 105W-125W. This indicates that Kelvin Wave (#2) was peaking south of California and pushing quickly east. It was branching north to Baja and south to Southern Peru, a good sign.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were warm in a classic Kelvin Wave pattern straddling 5 degrees north and south of the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline, with imbedded pockets of slightly stronger warming. These temps were actually getting warmer over the past week but still limited in coverage. There was minimal slight warming along the coast of Chile up into Peru, but nothing more than what has been occurring in days and week past. Generic warm anomalies were north of the equator from Central America and south of Mexico building out to Hawaii and the dateline. This pattern looks somewhat like El Nino, but also like La Nina with no solid warming branching north and south along the Central and South American coast, and most warming still in the West Pacific, suggesting this developing El Nino is only weakly in control and still fragile but less fragile than day past over the East equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/9): A weak warming trend was set up from Ecuador to 120W on the equator with pockets of stronger warming imbedded west of the Galapagos. No cooling was indicated. Building warming was also along the coast of Peru and Chile.
Hi-res Overview: (11/9) A sliver of weak cool water was present just off the outer coast of North Chile and loosing coverage with warm water building over South Chile and along the immediate coast of Peru. Otherwise moderate plus warm water was on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos building out to the dateline with a few pockets of stronger imbedded warming. We have turned the corner to a warm regime and are no longer in a mixed pattern where La Nina cool anomalies are present intermixed with warm anomalies. And we are kinda getting the sense we are moving towards a legitimate El Nino pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/10) Today's temps were stable at +0.117 after falling from a recent peak at +0.507 on 11/4, after rising from -0.628 on 10/22, down from the all time high for this event on 9/25 +1.316. Two previous peaks occurred of +0.510 degs on 9/17 and +0.459 on 5/13. Otherwise temps have been steady in the -0.50 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/10) Today temps were still falling but less quickly down to +0.684 after rising to +1.45 on 11/5, beating the previous peak temps of +0.795 on 10/9, and +0.649 on 9/27, and that beating the previous peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Overall temps are noodling around at +0.7 degs above normal adding some hope that perhaps El Nino is trying to develop, but nothing serious.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/10) The forecast calls for a slow but steady increase from here rising to +1.00 degs in mid-Nov then toggling from +1.00 to +1.20 degs from Dec into May 2019, then holding at +1.0 degs into July 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018 but weaker than previous model runs. But given the weak El Nino forecast, this somewhat dampens the odds of La Nina following in Fall of 2019. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Oct Plume depicts temps are to slowly rise from here, to +0.90 degs in October and +0.9-+1.0 degs in Nov through March 2019, then slowly fading to 0.78 in June. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and there's a 76% chance of a weak El Nino developing.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/10): The daily index was rising today at 8.71. The 30 day average was rising some at +4.74 suggesting an Inactive MJO was holding. The 90 day average was rising some at -2.24, the highest its been in over a month. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (11/10) Today the index was steady at -0.37, down from -0.22 the week of 10/22, after having risen to +0.39 on 10/10, the highest so far this event. This suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO was having a negative effect and that precip and evaporation are just slightly less than normal, and not above normal as one would expect if El Nino were in play. We are in an ENSO neutral pattern. The reading from 8/14 (+0.11) was the first time it's turned positive in a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.42, Sept -0.42. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table