Thursday, November 3, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 8.5 secs from 33 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 6.2 ft @ 6.1 secs from 276 degrees. Wind northwest at 25-31 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs, 63.3 (Topanga 103), 61.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 66.0 (Del Mar 153), 66.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 8.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 6.6 ft @ 6.5 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 7.7 ft @ 6.9 secs from 285 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 6.3 ft @ 7.6 secs from 291 degrees. Water temperate was 66.7 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 325 degrees. Wind north at 18-21 kts. Water temp 52.5 (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 55.2 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 56.1 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (11/3) North and Central CA was getting a mix of windswell and residual swell from the Northwestern Gulf at chest to head high and pretty wonky and warbled and mushed with light onshore wind early and textured. Protected breaks were chest to head high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean but with underlying warble and bump. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and fairly clean but real soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and blown out from strong northwest wind. Central Orange County was waist to chest high and warbled if not chopped from brisk northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe waist high and mushed with small whitecaps in effect driven by northwest wind. North San Diego had sets at chest high and completely trashed from northwest wind. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh to maybe waist high and clean and weak. The South Shore was getting better than expected southern hemi swell with sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form when they came. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (11/3) exposed breaks in California were getting residual swell from a gale that developed while tracking east from the Northwestern Gulf on Sat-Sun (10/30) with 38-41 ft seas aimed east then fell down the Pacific Northwest Coast with seas fading from 20 ft. A small gale is developed off the Kuril Islands approaching the dateline Mon-Wed (11/2) producing 29 ft seas aimed mostly south and is forecast loitering near the dateline through Fri (11/4) with 27 ft seas still aimed south. Maybe some sideband swell to result for Hawaii with luck,. Beyond another gale is forecast developing in the Northeastern Gulf falling southeast to a point off North CA Fri-Mon (11/7) producing 25-28 ft seas close to the coast. Maybe another gael is to develop on the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed well at the Hawaiian Island. But the clear signal is that high pressure is to continue locking down the Gulf of Alaska and therefore blocking the core of the storm track.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (11/3) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east over Japan with winds 140 kts but splitting just off the coast there then reconsolidating over the Northern Gulf with winds 160 kts just south of the Alaskan coast and falling south down the US West Coast forming a trough that was pushing inland over Central CA. No clear support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours the split is to move over the dateline offering nothing but over the Northern Gulf the jet is to become energized later Fri (11/4) with winds 190 kts starting to sag south and carving out a trough on Sat (11/5) over the Northeastern Gulf and holding into Sun (11/6) with winds still 190 kts feeding it offering good support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (11/7) the Gulf trough is to fall south starting to pushing inland over Central CA on Tues (11/8) with winds still 160 kts offering good support for gale development and weather production along the US West Coast. On Tues (11/8) the jet is to be somewhat fragmented running west to east over the 45N latitude line traversing the North Pacific with winds to 120 kts in pockets and starting to carve out a trough over the dateline on Wed (11/9) perhaps starting to support gale development there. At that time the jet is to be better positioned that anytime so far this Fall, but not particularly cohesive.
On Thursday (11/3) swell from a gale previously over the Northwestern Gulf was impacting California (see Another Northwestern Gulf Gale below).
And a gale was developing over the dateline offering some weak potential for Hawaii (see Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a small fetch is to develop in the Northern Gulf Fri AM (11/4) producing northwest winds at 40 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds to build in coverage at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 55N 143.75W aimed southeast and shadowed relative to NCal. Fetch is to rebuild in coverage and positioned more to the west on Sat AM (11/5) at 40 kts with 25 ft seas at 53N 144W aimed southeast and still shadowed relative to North CA (322 degs). In the evening fetch is to fall south at 35- 40 kts aimed southeast with seas 28 ft at 47.75N 136W aimed southeast and still mostly shadowed (320 degs NCal) but some sideband energy in the swell window at 310 degs. On Sun AM (11/6) north winds are to be 35-40 kts off Washington with seas 29 ft at 48.25N 138.5W aimed south and barely in the NCal swell window (318 degs). Fetch fading in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 42N 132.5W aimed southeast and unshadowed at 303 degs relative to NCal. Fetch fading Mon AM (11/7) off the Pacific Northwest at 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 41N 134,25W aimed southeast (295 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to be fading out with seas fading from 19 ft at 40N 137W or just off Cape Mendocino (286 degs NCal). Larger very raw and windblown swell is possible for North and Central CA.
North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Mon (11/7) at 9 ft @ 14 secs (12 ft) from 295-315 degrees and a jumbled mess.
Another Northwestern Gulf Gale
A new gale developed just south of the Aleutian Islands over the North Dateline region on Fri PM (10/28) with 55 kt northwest winds partially exposed south of the Eastern Aleutians and seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 53.25N 170.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/29) the gale was tracking over the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt west winds totally clear of land with seas 38 ft at 51.5N 157.5W aimed east (311 degs NCal). In the evening the storm was tracking east into the Northern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 52.5N 146.75W aimed east (318 degs NCal). The storm was tracking east on Sun AM (10/30) in the Northern Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 54.75N 138.75W aimed east (328+ degs NCal and totally shadowed). The gale to move inland over Central Canada after that. Something to monitor.
North CA: Swell fading Thurs AM (11/3) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (11/4) fading from 4.5 ft @ 10-11 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction 310-315+ degrees
Mon AM (10/31) a gale developed off North Japan producing north winds at 45 kts and seas 26 ft at 42N 161E aimed south. In the evening north fetch continued at 40-45 kts easing east with seas 27 ft at 43N 166E aimed south. North fetch continued Tues AM (11/1) at 40 kts with seas 28 ft at 41N 166.5E aimed south. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35-40 kts from the north with seas 26 ft at 39N 167.75E aimed south. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/2) from 35 kts mainly from the northeast with seas 23 ft at 38.25N 169.5E aimed south. The gale stall into Thurs AM (11/3) over the dateline producing a small area of north winds at 35-40 kts aimed south with seas 21 ft at 38.75N 176.5E then is forecast to build Fri AM (11/4) to 26 ft at 39.5N 178.75E still aimed south then gone by Sat AM (11/5). Low odds of sideband swell reaching the Hawaiian Islands.
Oahu: Sideband background swell expected on Fri (11/4) at 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell continues Sat (11/5) at 1.2 ft @ 12 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell building slightly on Sun (11/6) at 1.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (1.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri AM (11/4) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early fading to 10 kts everywhere in the afternoon. No precip forecast expect building light rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and evening.
- Sat AM (11/5) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA and building to 15-20 kts for the area north of Bodega Bay and 10 kts south of there to Monterey Bay and 15 kts south of there to Pt Conception in the afternoon. A front is to be developing over the Oregon-CA border. Rain for Cape Mendocino early reaching Bodega Bay in the afternoon then dissolving over the San Francisco Bay Area in the evening. Light snow for the
- Sun AM (11/6) low pressure is to be circulating just of Washington and falling south with a front over Cape Mendocino early with northwest winds forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon west to southwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts pushing down the North CA coast and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain possible for Cape Mendocino early building southward to the Golden Gate in the evening. Heavy snow developing for higher elevations of North Ca later.
- Mon AM (11/7) low pressure is to be circulating just off the Oregon and falling south with a front pushing south and west to northwest winds 10-15 kts early for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA down to Morro Bay early building over all of Southern CA in the afternoon and early evening. Heavy snow for Tahoe before sunrise sweeping south over the Sierra through the day then moderating in the evening.
- Tues AM (11/8) the low starts fading off Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA. Northwest winds continue in the afternoon at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Light rain continues for all of California early and fading through the day. Moderate snow continues for the Sierra but fading after sunset.
- Wed AM (11/9) north to northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon calm winds are forecast for North CA except with a new front setting up over Cape Mendocino with south winds 20 kts. Central CA to have northwest winds 10-15 kts. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon turning to snow for that area in the evening.
- Thurs AM (11/10) southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts reaching south to Pt Arena with south winds 10 kts south of there to Monterey Bay. Northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Rain for Pt Reyes northward early.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 27, 35, 25, and 14 inches with a little on Sat (11/5) and most Mon-Tues (11/7-8) with a few more inches on Fri (11/11).
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be rising to 12,000 ft 11/4, then falling steadily to 6,000 ft on 11/6 and down to 2,000 ft on 11/9 before rising to 8.000 ft on 11/10 and stabalizing there.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
Swell from a gale previously over the South Central Pacific is hitting Hawaii and bound for California (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours the model suggests a gale tracking under New Zealand on Fri AM (11/4) with 27 ft seas at 53.25S 167.5E aimed northeast. In the evening seas are to be fading from 25 ft at 53S 175E aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there. something to monitor.
Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (10/27) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 53.5N 170.75W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt southwest winds held with seas 26 ft at 51S 160.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/28) southwest winds held at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 26 ft at 49.25S 155.25W aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas building to 27 ft at 52S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/29) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a shrinking area with seas 25 ft at 50S 144W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and California. Will monitor.
Hawaii: Swell building Thurs (11/3) to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading some on Fri (11/4) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/5) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (11/6) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on on Sat (11/5) building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 moving to 198 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on on Sat (11/5) building to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 moving to 196 degrees. This swell likely to be buried in northerly swell.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Wed PM (11/9) producing 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 39.5N 168.25E aimed southeast. Fetch continues while moving east Thurs AM (11/10) at 45-50 kts with seas 36 ft at 38N 176.25E aimed southeast. Something to monitor but odds seem low of this actually developing at this time.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. That said, the models are suggesting something developing southeast of New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (11/10) with 27-28 ft seas aimed northeast. Will monitor.
Upwelling Phase Still Underway
West Anomalies to Own the Dateline Region 11/10 and Beyond
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically both subsurface and on the surface. But, the model suggest atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the KWGA and are to take root 2 weeks out, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning cautiously optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/2) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/3) neutral to weak west anomalies were covering 70% of the KWGA today with west anomalies in the far west KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for those west anomalies fading and gone on 11/5 with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the forecast period 11/10 with a small pocket of west anomalies on the dateline 11/4-11/7. East anomalies to build to near strong status on the dateline on the last day of the model run on 11/10. The 2 week GFS model suggest weak west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA today and holding till 11/9 with weak to modest east anomalies returning to the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 11/19, but weakening significantly compared to months past.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/2) A moderate Active Phase of the MJO was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase fading on day 5 of the model run and neutral on days 10 and 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing or with hints of the Active Phase returning weakly on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/3) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the West Pacific today and is quickly track east to the West Indian Ocean 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east then retrograding back to the far West Pacific but exceedingly weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/3) A weak Active Phase (wet air) was over the East Pacific today. The Active Phase is to slowly ease east while losing energy pushing into Ecuador on 11/23. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/8 and slowly tracking east almost reaching Ecuador at the end of the model run on 12/13. A weak Active Phase is to be developing over the KWGA on 12/3 filling the KWGA at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/2) A solid Active signal was indicated today over the dateline but with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Active Phase tracking east and dissipating over the East Pacific 11/11 with west anomalies starting to build over the West KWGA 11/3 reaching the dateline fairly strong there and holding through 11/8 while pushing over all of the East Pacific then collapsing. Solid east anomalies are to be redeveloping on the dateline 11/10-11/19 then fading with weak east anomalies holding on the dateline as the Inactive Phase of the MJO tracks to the Central KWGA then fades on 11/19. West anomalies to start building over the far West KWGA 11/10 filling 40% of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 11/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/3) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were nearly filling the KWGA to the dateline at modest strength with the Active Phase of the MJO past its peak over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO lingering over the dateline and points east of there through 11/15 then collapsing. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to traverse the KWGA 11/6-11/30. Weak east anomalies are to redevelop 11/5-11/11 but covering a broad area from 170E and points east of there beyond. West anomalies are to start slowly building over the KWGA 11/12 forward strongest west of the dateline if not expanding coverage over the entire equatorial Pacific in mid-Jan. East anomalies are to be relegated to a small area east of the dateline and also building over the Maritime Continent starting 12/5. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/13 with the primary contour gone on 1/22. The western edge of the high pressure bias is as far west today as it's going to be. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/22 reaching east to 150E at the end of the model run on 1/31. This is all a big deal. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W are weakening with west anomalies taking over the KWGA on 11/18. And the High Pressure Bias is to dissipate in early Dec. East anomalies are to now develop over the Maritime Continent stating 11/25 and building beyond. It seems a full reversal of the pressure and wind pattern from the past 2+ years is to occur over the next 2 months. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is poised to begin. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west at 173E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 158W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 121 today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stable at 150W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -4 degs C were centered at 135W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a building core at -15 cms positioned between 115-140W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 150W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 158W to Ecuador and building in coverage and intensity. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/2) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 95W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Water temps appears to be warming over a broad area south of the equator but are still anomalously cold. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/2): Neutral temps were indicated on the equator. No clear trend was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (11/2) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 90W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading west of 100W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/3) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were steady at -1.635 after falling to -1.850 on 10/20 and falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -1.898 degs and toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/3) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling at -1.110 after falling to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were -1.128 degs today after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/3) - Temps are to be falling to -1.25 degs mid-Nov then starting a farily steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 2nd week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in mid-Nov and then are to start pushing up to -0.70 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the first week of Feb and rising from there forward to +0.50 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/3) the Daily Index was falling at +4.20 today. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +18.23 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling slightly at +15.01 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table