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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2020 2:17 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.4 - California & 2.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/26 thru Sun 11/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Dateline Swell Hitting CA
Stronger System Forecast

On Tuesday, October 27, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 222 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 11.4 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 3.4 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 154 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 12-16 kts. Water temperature 64.8 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 14.8 secs from 301 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.8 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.5 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 196 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 14.0 secs from 297 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was east at 2-4 kts. Water temp 54.0 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 57.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/27) in North and Central CA small North Dateline swell was hitting producing waves at chest high and semi-lined up and clean but soft. Protected breaks was flat to occasionally waist high and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was flat with rare thigh high sets and clean and swamped by tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean with brisk offshore winds. Central Orange County had sets coming from the north at chest high and lined up and clean when they came. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were near flat with rare stray waist high waves and clean. North San Diego had sets at waist high on the peak and clean and lined up but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting dateline swell with waves head high and lined up and clean. The South Shore was thigh high and clean and weak. The East Shore was flat to thigh high and clean early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/27) California and Hawaii were getting small swell from a gale that tracked over the dateline on Wed-Thurs (10/22) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast. Beyond the models continue indicating a small gale is to form on the dateline Wed-Fri (10/29) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed east then fading in the Western Gulf early Sat (10/31). And another gale is forecast developing just off the Kuril Islands on Sun (11/1) tracking east with seas to 28 ft then fading on the dateline Tues (11/3) with seas 20 ft aimed east. Down south a gale developed while moving over the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (10/26) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed east. Another is to form in the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (10/29) producing a tiny area of up to 46 ft seas aimed northeast.


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Tuesday (10/27) the jet was consolidated ridging northeast off Japan pushing just south of the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians then falling south over the Northwestern Gulf into a pinched trough being fed with 130 kt winds with it's apex 150 nmiles north of Hawaii. This trough was supporting low pressure development. From there the jet ridged hard north over the Northern Gulf of Alaska before turning east and pushing into North Canada. Over the next 72 hours the pinched trough north of Hawaii is to evaporate later Wed (10/28) with the jet still consolidated tracking northeast off Japan pushing over the Northern Gulf with winds 110 kt and no obvious troughs indicated through Thurs (10/30). But on Fri (10/30) a solid trough is forecast developing over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 160 kt winds offering improved support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to start pinching off later on Sat (10/31) being fed by 160 kts winds offering diminished support for gale development. A strong ridge is to hold over the US West Coast. But on Mon (11/2) a new gentle trough is to start building over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 140 kts winds pushing more east and into the Central Gulf on Tues (11/3) 0ffering decent support for gale development. And there's some sense that the leading edge of that trough will push up to North California. Perhaps a more favorable trend is to materialize.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/27) swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region was hitting Hawaii and California (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed AM (10/28) a gale is forecast developing mid-way between Japan and the dateline producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a tiny are starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening the gale is to be just west of the dateline with up to 50 kt west winds with seas building from 29 ft over a tiny area at 42N 172E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/29) the gale is to be building with northwest to west winds at 45 kts over a small but building area aimed east with seas building to 34 ft at 45.5N 180W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east into the far Northwestern Gulf with winds 40 kts from the west and seas 35 ft at 48N 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/30) west winds are to be holding at 40 kts with the gale stalled with seas 33 ft at 49.5N 168W aimed east over the Northwestern Gulf. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35+ kt northwest winds over the Western Gulf aimed more southeast with seas 26 ft at 45N 166.5W aimed southeast. Northwest fetch is to be fading on Sat AM (10/31) from 30 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 46N 167W aimed southeast. the gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.


North Dateline Gale
A gale started developing over the North Dateline region on Wed PM (10/21) producing 50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 47.5N 174E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (10/22) 45 kt west winds were pushing southeast with seas 33 ft at 45.5N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a solid area over the North Dateline region aimed southeast with 26 ft seas at 47N 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/23) northwest fetch was fading from 30 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 21 ft at 46N 172W aimed east.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Tues (10/27) from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 2.7 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Swell continues on Tues (10/27) at 2.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/27) high pressure was ridging into the Pacific Northwest generating northeast fetch over a small area at 20-25 kts limited to the CA-OR border and down over Cape Mendocino with windswell generation weak with fetch holding if not building to 30 kts in the afternoon. Light winds nearshore south of Cape Mendocino all day. Wed (10/28) no windswell producing fetch is forecast with light winds along the CA coast. No change through Fri (10/30). On Sat (10/31) northwest winds are to start building at 15-20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena but with light northwest winds 10 kts south of there all day. Light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA on Sun (11/1) and Mon (11/2). A front is forecast nudging up to North CA on Tues (11/3) generating south winds at 10-15 kts southward to Bodega Bay mainly early then fading. No rain is forecast until Tues (11/3) limited to Bodega Bay and points north of there. Prior to that the rain line is to start over North Washington and points north of there.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level at 12,500 ft falling back to 10,500 ft 11/3 then rising above 14,000 ft through the end of the model run.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/27) possible tiny sideband swell from a small gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific was radiating north towards California and more so towards South and Central America today (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is to be developing in the Central South Pacific Wed AM (10/28) producing a small area of 50-55 kt south-southwest winds and seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 56.5S 156W aimed northeast. In the evening 55 kt southwest winds to continue tracking east with 46 ft seas at 54.5S 150.5W aimed well northeast. Fetch is to start fading on Thurs AM (10/29) at 40-45 kt from the south with seas 42 ft at 52S 142W aimed northeast and fading. In the evening south fetch is to be fading from 35+ kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 52S 139W aimed northeast. The gale is to be dissipating from there. Something to monitor.


Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun PM (10/25) producing a broad area of 40 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 29-30 ft just off the north edge of the Ice Shelf at 60S 140W aimed east. On Mon AM (10/26) winds built to 40 kts from the west with seas building to 34 ft at 59.5S 122.5W all aimed well east over the far Southeast Pacific. In the evening this system was east of even the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 32 ft at 118W 60.5S aimed east. Low odds of meaningful sideband swell radiating north. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/2) building to 1.5 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (11/3) to 2.0 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/3) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing just off the North Kuril Islands on Sat PM (10/31) producing 45 kt northwest winds with seas building to 27 ft at 46N 161E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/1) northwest winds to fade to 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44N 170E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts aimed southeast with 23 ft seas fading at 42.5N 175E aimed southeast. Weak fetch is to push southeast Mon AM (11/2) at 25-30 kts with seas 20 ft at 40N 178E aimed southeast. More of the same is forecast in the evening with 20 ft seas at 38N 178W aimed southeast. Theoretically on Tues AM (11/3) additional north fetch is to build at 35 kts generating 23 ft seas at 43N 177W aimed south. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.



MJO/ENSO Forecast


Active MJO Softening La Nina For the Moment

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and moderate from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest easterly over the East equatorial turning moderate easterly over the Central Pacific and moderate plus easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/27) a mix of light east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. Strong east anomalies were south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for weak west anomalies fading in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/3 with moderate to strong east anomalies backtracking from a point south of California moving over the dateline and into the Eastern KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/3. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak to modest and is expected to be fading by the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/26) A moderate Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to weaken steadily on days 5 through day 15 of the model run over the KWGA and very weak at the end of the run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase fading to almost gone on day 5 with a weak to modest Inactive MJO pattern setting up on days 10-15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the far West Pacific today and is to fade to almost imperceptible status while tracking east over the East Atlantic at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the MJO the same thing but the MJO weak over the East Atlantic at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/26) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West and Central Pacific today. It is to push east and fade some as it moves over Central America on 11/20 having some limited support for storm production. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 11/10 tracking to the East Pacific and over Central America at the end of the model run on 12/5. At that time a moderate Active signal is suggested building over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/26) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today was filling the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies trying to fill the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at weak status through 11/2 as the Active Phase pushes through the KWGA. East anomalies are to build as soon as the Active Phase tracks east of the KWGA on 11/4 building to strong status 11/8 and holding only to build more to solid strong status 11/16 holding through the end of the model run on 11/23 while the Inactive Phase of the MJO develops in the KWGA starting 11/13 and and building east filling it through the end of the model run. But as the Active MJO tracks south of California 10/30 through 11/16, west anomalies are to be building strong in that area. Unfortunately the KWGA is to remain dominated by east anomalies driven by La Nina, even when a solid Active MJO is present. That suggests the La Nina base state is strong and overriding the MJO.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/27 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal is moving east through the KWGA but with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control to a point south of California and into Ecuador. The Active MJO is to slowly push east finally exiting the KWGA on 11/9 producing a mix of weak west and east anomalies. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/5 tracking east through 12/6 producing mostly east anomalies in the KWGA though some west anomalies are to remain and moderate plus strength east anomalies over the East Pacific to Ecuador. A weak Active Phase is to follow on 12/1 with modest west anomalies building and hold as the Active Phase pushes through the KWGA on 12/28. West anomalies are modeled also making a good footprint in the East PAcific. The Inactive Phase is to return 12/22 through 1/7 but with weak west anomalies trying to hold on in the KWGA. A new Active Phase is to return to the KWGA on 1/7 through the end of the model run on 1/23 with strong west anomalies forecast in the KWGA and making good progress into the East Pacific. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 170E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 12/14-1/15 then fading. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. Its core and western periphery is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 163E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 178W today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 144W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today but no warmth east of there. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -4 degs near 135W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 160E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/20 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C but with cool anomalies even west of there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W reaching down to -20 cms at 135W and -15 cms solid between 110W-145W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/26) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 110W to 145W and growing in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/26): Temps were cooling on the equator from Ecuador to 150W before moderating west of there to 170E.
Hi-res Overview: (10/26) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline with markedly cool anomalies between 110-140W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/27) Today's temps were falling some at -1.631 degs and previously were down to -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/27) Temps were falling again at -1.399 today beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/27) Today the model indicates temps at -1.2 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -2.4 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.25 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/27): The daily index was negative today at -3.48. The 30 day average was falling slightly at +5.83. The 90 day average was falling some at 7.41, suggesting the current Active MJO was having some impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/25):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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