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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 25, 2022 2:25 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/24 thru Sun 10/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Swell Hitting NCal
Another Gulf Swell Forecast

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, October 25, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 6.5 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 15.4 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 8.4 secs from 70 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 234 degrees. Wind west at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.6 degs, 65.5 (Topanga 103), 65.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 69.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.9 ft @ 12.6 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.9 secs from 218 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.5 secs from 192 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.6 secs from 202 degrees. Water temperate was 68.5 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 301 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.0 ft @ 14.7 secs from 201 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.3 (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.8 (46026), 57.9 (SF Bar 142), 57.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 57.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/25) North and Central CA was getting northwest windswell at chest high and fairly lined up but heavily warbled and mushed from northwest wind though no chops were visible. Fresh swell was building underneath. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean but fogged in. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean with no wind early. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high breaking on the beach with rare sets chest high mushing outside and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high on the peak and lined up and clean with good form but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore had some stray waist high peaks at top breaks and soft but clean early. The South Shore was getting easterly windswell at waist high and soft on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from solid east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/25) Hawaii had no swell and California was getting fading swell from a gale that tracked east over the South Central Pacific a week ago producing 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Local northwest windswell was in the mix too. And swell was starting to arrive in North CA from a small gale that tracked east through the Northern Gulf Sat-Sun (10/23) producing 31 ft seas aimed east. Another gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf on Wed-Fri (10/28) producing up to 30 ft seas aimed southeast. Of more interest is a gale forecast for the Northwestern Gulf on Sat-Sun (10/30) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east. And maybe more behind it. Fall is trying but the progress is slow and seasonally delayed.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (10/25) the jetstream was consolidated ridging north off Japan with winds to 190 kts pushing over the Central Aleutians then tracking east to the Northern Gulf then vaporizing with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. A cutoff low was over the Southern Dateline offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs (10/27) the jet is to start falling solidly southeast in the Northeastern Gulf being fed by 160 kts winds offering decent support for gale development and continuing into early Fri (10/28). That trough is to push east into North Canada on Sat (10/29) while a new troughs tarts building over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 140 kts winds and tracking east into Sun (10/30) offering another window to support gale development. And then on Mon (10/31) a broad trough is to start developing off Japan with winds building to 160 kts on Tues (11/1) feeding it offering good support for gale development. A big ridge is to be over the Western Gulf with a backdoor trough pushing down the Oregon and North CA coast. Interesting and helpful for possibly setting up weather in CA.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/25) swell from a gale previously in the North Gulf was poised to hit North CA (see North Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast moving southeast from the East Bering Sea into the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (10/26) with 30-35 kt northwest winds forecast seeping into the Northern Gulf with seas building from 23 ft at 53N 146.75W (320 degs NCal). In the evening 40-45 kt northwest winds are to be building over the Northern Gulf with 24 ft seas at 54N 153.5W aimed southeast (318 degs NCal). Fetch to hold position Thurs AM (10/27) at 35-40 kts with 31 ft seas at 51.5N 146W aimed southeast (318 degs NCal). Fetch is to be fading in the evening at 35 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 50N 145W (315 degs NCal). Fetch fading Fri AM (10/28) from 30-35 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 24 ft at 52N 143W (322 degs NCal and shadowed) aimed southeast. Very north angled swell is possible for North CA but mainly focused on the Pacific Northwest. Will monitor.

 

North Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing Sat PM (10/22) in the Northern Gulf with northwest winds 40-45 kts with seas building from 21 ft at 52N 153.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to be just off North Canada on Sun AM (10/23) producing 45 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 31 ft at 53.25N 144.75W aimed southeast and mostly shadowed relative to North CA (319+ degs). In the evening the gale was poised to move inland over North Canada with 40 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 52.5N 137W and well east of the NCal swell window.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues late AM (10/25) building into the early afternoon to 5 ft @ 14 secs (7.0 ft) and nearly shadowed at all but the most exposed breaks. On Wed AM (10/26) swell is to be fading from 7.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (8.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (10/27) from 4.8 ft @ 11 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315-318 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (10/26) high pressure and northwest winds return at 20 kts early for all of North and Central CA and up to 25 kts south of Monterey Bay holding all day if not building to 25 kts in pockets over North CA. Local northwest windswell regenerating.
  • Thurs AM (10/27) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fading to 10 kts for North Ca and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading fast.
  • Fri AM (10/28) a light northwest flow is forecast early at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA continuing in the afternoon.
  • Sat AM (10/29) a light flow is forecast for North CA early and northwest at 15 kts south of Monterey Bay holding all day. Local low pressure is to start building well off of North CA later.
  • Sun AM (10/30) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and up to 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay early . Low pressure dissipating. In the afternoon northwest winds to be building at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Mon AM (10/31) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
  • Tues AM (11/1) southwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Northwest winds building in the afternoon at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain and snow sweeping south down to Morro Bay and covering the North and Central Sierra by sunset.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 28, 27, 27, and 21 inches.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be falling to 7,000 ft early on 10/26 then rising to 12,000 ft on 10/27 settling at about 10.5000 ft beyond until it starts falling to 4,000 ft on 11/2. Fall is moving into the Sierra.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the South Central Pacific is fading in California (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (10/27) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 55.75N 169.25W aimed northeast. In the evening 35 kt southwest winds to hold with seas building to 27 ft at 49.5N 164,75W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/28) southwest winds to build to 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 49.25S 156.6W aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas building to 31 ft at 51.75S 147.25W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/29) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 138.75W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Will monitor.

 

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing Thurs AM (10/13) under New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds building in coverage. In the evening southwest winds built to 45 kts over the South Central Pacific with seas building from 29 ft at 60.25S 169.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/14) a broad fetch of southwest winds at 40 kts were tracking northeast over the South Central Pacific with 31 ft seas at 56.5S 156W aimed northeast. More of the same occurred in the evening with 31 ft seas at 56S 149W aimed northeast. Fetch was reorganizing some on Sat AM (10/15) at 35-45 kts aimed north with seas 33 ft at 52.5S 136.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas 29 ft at 48S 133W aimed north. The gale was gone after that. Swell radiating north. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (10/25) from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading Wed (10/26) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 moving to 194 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Tues (10/25) from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading Wed (10/26) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 moving to 189 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing just south of the Aleutian Islands over the North Dateline region on Fri PM (10/28) with 50 kt northwest winds ands seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 49N 175W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/29) a full storm is to be building in the Northwestern Gulf with 55 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 52N 164W aimed east. In the evening the storm is to track east with 45 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 51.5N 153.5W aimed east. The storm is to track east on Sun AM (10/30) in the Northern Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 52.5N 143W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Perhaps another gale is to be developing just west of the dateline on Mon-Tues (11/1) with 30 ft seas aimed east.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gael is to develop in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 34 ft seas at 54S 124.5W on Tues (11/1) aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Models Suggest Change is Starting Atmospherically Ever-So-Slightly
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control subsurface and on the surface. But, the model suggest anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the KWGA and are to take root 2 weeks out, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas. The outlook is turning cautiously optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/24) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/25) Modest west anomalies were covering half the KWGA today reaching to 150E with neutral anomalies east of there.. The 7 day forecast calls for those west anomalies fading fast in the next 2 days with east anomalies starting to build on 10/27 to moderate status on 10/28 and filling the KWGA beyond. The 2 week GFS model suggest east anomalies rebuilding some over the KWGA through 11/1, then west anomalies return 11/3 holding through 11/7 then fading again on 11/10 with east anomalies trying to return.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/24) A modest version of the Active Phase of the MJO was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase fading on day 5 of the model run and neutral by days 10 and 15. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase holding steady filling the KWGA getting only slightly weaker on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/25) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific today and is quickly track east to the Atlantic 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase stationary at modest status over the West Pacific for the next 15 days.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/25) A weak Active Phase (wet air) is pushing east over the KWGA today. The Active Phase is to slowly ease east while losing energy reaching the East Pacific and tracking into Ecuador 11/19 at weak status. A modest Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/14 filling the Pacific at the end of the model run 12/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/24)
A weak Active signal was indicated today over the KWGA with modest west anomalies reaching to the dateline. The forecast calls for the Active Phase dissipating on 10/26 with west anomalies backtracking and poised right on the door of the KWGA through 11/2 with east anomalies retaking control of the KWGA at weak to modest status build to moderate strength 11/7-11/14. After that east anomalies are start fading but still weakly present through the end of the model run on 11/21. But west anomalies are to start pushing into the KWGA on 11/14 reaching to 150E and building more solidly in the far West KWGA through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(10/22) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were filling the KWGA to the dateline at modest strength with the Active Phase of the MJO peaking over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO pushing through the KWGA and fading 11/8 with west anomalies holding till 11/27 then giving way to light east anomalies over the dateline. But west anomalies are to be hold right at the door into the KWGA and slowly easing east reaching nearly to the dateline on 11/25 while the MJO was neutral. The Active Phase is to then redevelop on 11/27 filling the KWGA and points even east of there holding till 1/5/2023. Weak to modest west anomalies are to take control of the KWGA on 11/15 and remain locked over the KWGA beyond with no end in sight. East anomalies are to be relegated to a small area at 110W starting 12/12 and beyond and weakening over time while building over the Maritime Continent. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/9 with the primary contour gone on 1/5. The western edge of the high pressure bias is as far west today as it's going to be. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 12/4 reaching east to 160E at the end of the model run on 1/21. This is a big deal. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W are weakening with west anomalies taking over the KWGA on 11/18. And the High Pressure Bias is to dissipate in late Dev. East anomalies are to now develop over the Maritime Continent stating 12/10 and building beyond. It seems a full reversal of the pressure and wind pattern from the past 2+ years is to occur over the next 2 months. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is poised to begin. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/25) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 172E from 175E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking from 150W to 156W. The 24 deg isotherm had backtracked from Ecuador to 133W but then started easing east from 130W to 117W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 152W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -1 degs C were centered at 135W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/20 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 160W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a building core at -15 cms positioned at 120W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 90W to 150W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 165W to Ecuador and building in coverage and intensity. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/24) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 90W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/24): A mix of warming and cooling water is on the equator in a thin string from Ecuador to 140W. The trend was towards cooling.
Hi-res Overview: (10/24) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 90W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading west of 100W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/25) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were stable at -1.754 after falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -1.966 degs and rising some the last 3 days. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/25) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.834 after falling to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps at -0.929 degs and falling the last few days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (10/25) - Temps are to be falling to -1.25 degs early Nov then starting a farily steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the first week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.45 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in early Nov and then are to start pushing up to -0.65 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold in early Feb and rising from there forward to +0.35 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/25) the Daily Index was steady at +12.44 today. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +19.82 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +15.61 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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