Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 11.8 secs from 183 degrees. Water temp 81.5 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 82.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 25 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.8 secs from 24 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.1 secs from 265 degrees. Wind southwest 8 kts. Water temperature 68.9 degs, 59.9 (Harvest 071), 65.1 (Topanga 103), 64.0 (Long Beach 215), 67.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.9 (Del Mar 153), 68.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 10.3 secs from 302 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.2 ft @ 6.0 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 6.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.9 ft @ 7.6 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.3 ft @ 7.7 secs from 264 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 8.2 secs from 260 degrees. Water temperature 67.1 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 10.0 secs from 302 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 4-6 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 4 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 62.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 61.0 (San Francisco 46026), 63.9 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 61.0 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (10/11) in North and Central CA surf was waist high plus coming from the northwest and weakly lined up and soft and somewhat crumbled but with decent form early. Protected breaks had waist high sets and lined up and soft and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist to almost chest high on the rare sets and weakly lined up with decent form and clean early. In Ventura County waves were thigh high on rare occasions and weak and a little warbled but with clean surface conditions and soft and barely rideable. Central Orange County had very waist high sets and mushed breaking breaking nearly on the beach and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest to maybe shoulder high on the peak at top spots and lined up with decent form and clean early. The South Shore had rare sets at waist high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh to waist high and textured early from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (10/11) Hawaii's North Shore were getting minimal locally generated northwest windswell. California was also getting minimal locally generated northwest windswell. A gale developed off the Kurils on Thurs (10/9) with 38 ft seas aimed east tracking to the Northwest Dateline while fading on Fri (10/10). And Typhoon Halong recurved from just south of Japan tracking east Thurs-Fri (10/10) with seas building briefly to 46 ft then faded while tracking east never reaching the dateline. A gale is forecast Sat (10/11) off the Kuril Islands with 24 ft seas tracking east into Sun (10/12) and fading before reaching the dateline. A tiny gael is forecast in the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Wed (10/15) with seas building to 33 ft aimed east. Then things to get interesting with a gale forecast in the Gulf on Fri-Sat (10/18) with 37 ft seas aimed east. Another to build moving northeast from the dateline to the Northwest Gulf Sat-Sun (10/19) with 47 ft seas aimed east. Fall is setting up but focused mainly over the Northwest Pacific. In the South Pacific a tiny gale developed over the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (10/5) with 26-29 ft seas over a small area aimed north-northeast. After that nothing obvious is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (10/11) the jetstream was tracking east off the South Kuril Islands with winds to 170 kts digging out a trough off the Kurils supporting gale formation. East of the trough the jet was lifting northeast ridging over the Central Aleutians and up into the Bering Sea then tracking east over Alaska offering nothing. A very weak backdoor trough was pushing down the North CA coast offering some weather there. Over the next 72 hours the trough off the Kurils is to track east and northeast to the Northwestern Gulf on Mon (10/13) while dissipating steadily losing support for gale formation. But on Tues (10/14) the jet is to be positioned on the 45N latitude line from Japan to the Northwestern Gulf with winds 130-150 kts offering potential. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (10/15) more of the same is forecast with wind energy steady in the jet and the jet falling south over the Gulf of Alaska to the 45N latitude line as well. By Fri (10/17) winds to build to 170 kts in the jet over the Northwestern Gulf digging out a trough on Sat (10/18) in the North Central Gulf offering good potential for gale formation. And another trough is to start forming off the Kurils tracking east Fri-Sat (10/18) digging out a second trough also supporting gale formation. An improving pattern is being teased at.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/11) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California. Swell was tracking southeast originating from a gale previously just east of the Kuril Islands (see Weak Kuril Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sat AM (10/11) a weak gale was developing just off the North Kuril Islands with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 46N 162E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds hold position at 30-35 kts from the Kurils but extending east to the dateline with seas 24 ft at 46N 162.75E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (10/12) west winds hold at 30-35 kts from the Kurils to the dateline with seas 23 ft south of the Aleutians focused at 47N 165E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 221 ft at 46.5N 173.5E aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor. Swell possibly to tag on to the end of swell from the Weak Kuril Gale (see below).

Weak Kuril Gale
On Wed PM (10/8) a gale was developing over the North Kuril Islands producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts just east of there and starting to get traction. By Thursday AM (10/9) the gale was pushing east off the North Kuril Islands with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 48N 158.5E aimed east building to 37 ft mid-day. In the evening fetch held position at 45 kts with seas 38 ft at 48N 166.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (10/10) fetch was blowing at 30 kts from the Kuril Islands to almost the dateline with a core at 40-45 kts with seas 28-31 ft at 49N 173E aimed east generating swell propagating east. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts and lifting north with seas fading from 26 ft at 48N 17E aimed east. Fetch was to be gone in the evening. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/13) building to 3.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later in the afternoon (5.5 ft). Swell holding overnight into Tues AM (10/14) at 4.2 ft @ 15 secs (6.0-6.5 ft). Swell steady Wed AM (10/15) at 3.7 ft @ 13-14 secs all day (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees Tiny bit of swell energy from what was Typhoon Halong to be intermixed.

North CA: Swell building slowly on Tues (10/14) reach1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell peaks Wed (10/15) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/16) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 298-300 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (10/12) high pressure builds in with northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts for North and Central CA. Local northwest windswell building.
Mon AM (10/13) the pressure gradient continues but off the coast with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts well off the coast and northwest winds 15 kts nearshore for Central CA early. In the afternoon weak low pressure to be pushing down the North CA coast with northwest winds 10-15 kts nearshore for North CA and 25-30 kts well off the coast and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell building. Rain for all of North CA during the day reaching to Pt Conception late afternoon. Snow for the Tahoe in the evening building south.
Tues AM (10/14) the low is to be over San Francisco with northwest winds 15-10 kts for North and Central CA early nearshore but 20-25 kts well off the coast. In the afternoon the low fades as well as northwest winds at 10 kts for North and Central CA nearshore and 15-20 kts well off the coast. Rain for Central CA during the day and reaching over all of Southern CA late AM. Heavy snow for the Sierra through the day fading some in the evening. Windswell holding.
Wed AM (10/15) the pattern fades with northwest winds 5 kts for North and Central CA early. Northwest winds build to 10 kts in the afternoon for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast. Maybe light rain for the coast of North CA during the day. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (10/16) northwest winds to be 15 kts early for North and Central CA. In the afternoon a pressure gradient starts to build with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts down the coast for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Windswell building.
Fri AM (10/17) northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and kts south of there for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. In the afternoon no change forecast but northwest winds 5 kts south of Cape mendocino. Windswell holding.
Sat AM (10/18) the gradient starts fading with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts south of there. Windswell fading.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 35-40 degs Sun (10/12) falling Mon (10/13) to 25-30 degs and down to 25 degs Tues (10/14) falling to 20-25 degs early Wed (10/15). Temp starts rising after that through Fri (10/17) to 40 degs and holding beyond. But temps to possibly fall on Sun (10/19) dropping to 32 degs later in the day. 19 inches of snow possible for Palisades Tahoe on Mon-Tues (10/14). Will believe it when it happens.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/11) tiny swell was tracking northeast originating from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Central South Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed over Central South Pacific Sat AM (10/4) producing 40-45 kt south winds over an infinitesimal area and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 40+ kts over a tiny area tracking northeast with seas 28 ft at 49.25S 148.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/5) south winds were 30-35 kts over a broader with seas 28 ft at 45.25S 141W aimed north. Secondary fetch developed in the evening over the same area at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.5S 135W aimed north. Fetch and seas were gone by Mon AM (10/6). Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/13) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues (10/14) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs steady through the day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/15) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-198 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (10/14) a new gale is to develop over the far Northwestern Gulf with west winds 45-50 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 51N 170.25W aimed east. On Wed AM (10/15) the gael is to be just south of the Eastern Aleutians with west winds 45 kts and seas 33 ft at 53.5N 164.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east just south of Alaska with winds from the west at 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 53.5N 159W and barely in the Ncal swell window (315 degs). be over the North Dateline region with west winds 45 kts and seas 37 ft at 49.5N 180W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

On Fri AM (10/17) a new gale is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska with 45 kts northwest winds over a small area starting to get traction. In the evening northwest winds to be 50-55 kts with seas building to 30 ft at 48N 155W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/18) the gael to fall southeast some with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 38 ft at 47.5N 147.5W aimed east. in the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 45N 142W aimed east and southeast.

And on Fri PM (10/17) a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline lifting northeast with northwest winds 55 kts. On Sat (10/18) the gale builds over the dateline with northwest winds 60+ kts and seas 34 ft at 42.5N 175E aimed east. In the evening the gael to track northeast with 55 kts west winds over the Northern Dateline region with seas 43 ft at 47.5N 175W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours the model suggests no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/10) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/11) Today mostly modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/19, then building to strong status over the dateline through the end of the model run on 10/27. Strong west anomalies are to be building over the Maritime Continent.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/10) Currently a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) was indicated building over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a modest Inactive MJO (dry air) continuing over the KWGA on days 5-10 of the model run then fading out on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates the MJO turning more strongly Inactive (dry air) on day 10 and 15 of the model run. It seem we're heading into some flavor of the Inactive pattern.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/11) - The models depict the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over Africa. The statistic model has it easing east moving to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the MJO at weak status tracking east to the East Indian Ocean 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/10) Today a mix of moderate east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has this pattern holding into 10/17. On 10/18 Inactive MJO contours move into the KWGA pushing east over the dateline and holding to 11/2 with strong east anomalies filling the Central KWGA through that window. After that east anomalies are to start fading and nearly gone at the end of the model run on 11/7 with Active Phase contours almost reaching east in to the West KWGA. It looks like the MJO is to wake up over the next 2 weeks.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/11) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today no MJO contours were indicated with weak east and west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has a modest Inactive MJO developing 10/12-11/10 with east anomalies in control during that window. On 11/2 the Active Phase of the MJO is to take over through 12/24 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA if not most of the Equatorial Pacific. A weak Inactive pattern is indicated setting up 12/14 through the end of the model run on 1/8/26 but with moderate west anomalies holding filling most of the equatorial. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through 12/22 then starting to push east. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through 12/1 then retrograding with the high pressure bias nearly disappearing at the end of the model run. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are stationary now but the low pressure bias is to start pushing east early Dec. This is a major change in the right direction.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (10/11) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding west from 174E to 173E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east moving from 173W to 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding from 120W to 131W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees were at 140W at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline east of 145W (moving east from 160W the last 10 days) to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -10 cms between the Galapagos to 125W (rising from -15 cms a few days ago). Heights were weakly above normal from 175E and points west of there. The cool pool is steady over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/5) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 137W to 88W. Warm anomalies were west of 147W (previously 165W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/10) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Ecuador to 175E but warming some from Ecuador to 115W. This looks like a developing very weak La Nina but it has faded some in the last week. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/10): Temps were cooling from 95W to 120W. and mostly neutral everywhere else.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/11) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling some at -0.724 but have been generally steady around that number since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/11) Today's temps were steady at -0.876. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at -0.5 as of 10/1. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/24), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.32 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.46 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug and -0.5 in Sept.
Forecast (10/11) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.80 mid-Oct, -0.85 Nov, rising -0.70 mid-Dec and technically neutral late Dec, -0.25 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs in Oct and holding there into early Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/11) the Daily Index was positive at 10.31 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising weakly at +3.44 and has been generally falling from +4.65 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +4.02 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.48 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.