Saturday, October 10, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 188 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 10.0 secs from 22 degrees. Water temp 81.9 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 14.4 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 70.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.5 secs from 218 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 223 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.2 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.6 secs from 219 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 10.0 secs from 276 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 8-10 kts. Water temp 54.7 degs (013), 58.6 degs (SF Bar) and 59.2 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (10/10) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves to maybe waist and clean and lined up with no wind early. Protected breaks were thigh high on the sets and weak and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz sets were waist high or so and clean and lined up. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and clean. Central Orange County had sets at knee to thigh high and clean but soft and warbled. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to maybe chest high on the peak and clean and soft. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but a little closed out early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves chest high and lightly chopped early from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (10/10) California was getting minimal swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand Mon-Tues (9/29) producing up to 39 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well north. No swell was hitting Hawaii from either the north or south. Beyond a weak gale tracked under New Zealand Mon-Wed (10/7) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Maybe some swell to result. But beyond no other obvious swell producing weather system are forecast in the South Pacific. In the North Pacific a weak weather system produced 15-18 ft seas in the Western Gulf Thurs-Sat (10/10) likely producing some windswell. But no legitimate swell producing weather systems are forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (10/10) the jet was consolidated tracking due east off the Southern Kuril Islands on the 46N latitude with winds building to 170 kts over the Gulf of Alaska and pushing into Southern Oregon but no troughs were indicated offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with winds fading off Japan and a ridge developing there pushing up into the far Western Bering Sea. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (10/13) the jet is to start falling south after coming out of the ridge in the west with a trough developing over the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska and getting more pronounced on Wed-Fri (10/16) being fed by 140 kt winds pushing south almost to Hawaii but also pretty pinched offering at best weak support for gale development. A ridge is to start building on Sat (10/17) over the dateline region and also over Eastern Gulf pushing into North British Columbia coast with the remnants of the previous pinched trough starting to get re-energized being fed by 180 kt winds possibly offering some support for gale development in the future.
On Saturday (10/10) no swell of interest was hitting California. A low pressure system tracked east through the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thurs-Fri (10/9) but only producing 20-25 kt west winds and seas initially 22 ft fading to 15 ft aimed east. Maybe some windswell to result for the US West Coast (see QuikCASTs for details).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (10/10) calm winds were occurring over North and Central CA early. The forecast has northwest winds at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA later in the day. Light rain developing early for Cape Mendocino pushing south to maybe Bodega Bay late afternoon. No rain south of there. Sun (10/11) high pressure is to build in with north winds 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early building to 20-25 kts later. No precip is forecast for the state. Monday (10/12) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North CA from Pt Arena southward and Central CA holding all day of not build north to Cape Mendocino later. Windswell building. On Tuesday (10/13) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA holding all day. Some degree of windswell continuing. Wed (10/14) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for most of North CA and 10 kts for Central Ca all day. Some windswell is possible all day down into Central CA. Thurs (10/15) north winds to be 25-30 kt for North CA north of Bodega Bay early and northwest 5 kts south of there holding all day. Windswell continues. Friday (10/16) north winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino but calm from Pt Arena southward all day. Limited windswell radiating down into Central CA. Sat (10/17) northeast winds are forecast at 30 kts limited to north Cape Mendocino with light winds south of there all day. Windswell fading.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level at 11,000 ft on Sat (10/10) then rising to 14,000 ft and till 10/16, falling to 13,000 ft and stable through 10/19.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (10/10) swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was still hitting CA (see New Zealand Gale below). Another weaker gale formed behind it under New Zealand tracking east (see Weak New Zealand gale below). And a tiny weak gael formed in the far Southeast Pacific after that likely offering next to nothing.
Over the next 72 hours a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Fri PM (10/9) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building to 31 ft at 53S 139.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (10/10) 40 kt southwest winds tracked east with seas fading from 30 ft at 52.5S 129W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade and no seas of interest remaining. Low odds for small swell developing. Something to monitor.
No other swell producing fetch is forecast.
New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun AM (9/27) producing 45-55 kt south winds and seas starting to develop. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds were just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf pushing north producing seas building to 39 ft at 57S 172E aimed north. On Mon AM (9/28) south winds were fading from 40 kts holding in place and seas 28-30 ft near 55S 178E aimed north. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35 kts from the south with 25 ft seas fading at 55S 172E aimed north. By Tues AM (9/29) fetch was gone. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 215 degrees
North CA: Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell is to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 214 degrees
Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand Mon PM (10/5) producing 40 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 28 ft at 53.5S 170E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (10/6) the gale moved with with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 50.5S 173.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch started building over the Southeast Pacific at 40 kts with seas 27 ft over a small area at 53.5S 150.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (10/7) a small area of 40 kt west winds were pushing east with seas 31 ft at 52.5S 138W aimed east. Fetch was fading and falling southeast after that. Small swell is possible.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/13) pushing 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/14) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) Swell Direction: 195 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (10/14) with swell building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (10/15) pushing 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/15) pushing 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina In Control
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial continuing over the Central Pacific and then modest to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/10) moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at moderate to strong status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/17 and holding over the Central Pacific to a point south of California. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to only weaken more as east anomalies dig in.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (10/9) A moderate Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to hold unchanged on days 5, 10, and day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase fading some on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the East Maritime Continent today and is to collapse while tracking east into the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to hold stationary over the next 15 days and remaining a modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/9) This model depicts an exceedingly weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. The weak Active pattern is to push east and into Central America on 11/1 having almost no obvious benefit to storm production. A weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 10/29 tracking to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 11/18. At that time a weak Active signal is suggested over the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/9) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal today but with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at strong status through 10/16 then building strong south of California 10/16-10/23 but far weaker over the KWGA over that time window. East anomalies to rebuild to strong status in the KWGA on 10/24 holding through the end of the model run 11/6. A weak Active MJO signal is forecast over the East Pacific at the same time. In essence a non-stop Inactive wind anomaly signal is forecast for the KWGA for the next month consistent with La Nina.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/10 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO signal move east of the KWGA with east anomalies in control to a point south of California. The forecast has the Inactive Phase tracking east through 10/15 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA and with somewhat stronger east anomalies setting up east of the dateline filling the area to Ecuador. The Active Phase is to try and return on 10/14 and somewhat coherent holding in the KWGA into 11/15 producing only weak west anomalies in pockets in the KWGA with mostly east anomalies filling the area east of the KWGA and over the East Pacific. A stronger Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/11 tracking east through 12/5 producing a mix of east and west anomalies in the KWGA and strong east anomalies over the East Pacific to Ecuador. A weak Active Phase is to follow 12/2-12/15 with modest west anomalies over KWGA trying to move over the East Pacific. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 12/15 through the end of the model run on 1/7 with west anomalies filling the western half of the KWGA and solid east anomalies east of there. East anomalies are now in control of the KWGA and the Eastern Pacific and are forecast to hold for the foreseeable future. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run though easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. At that time a third contour line is to develop starting 12/21. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 160E at the end of the model run. And a second contour line is forecast developing in its core on 12/26. Its core is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and should stabilize there for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 162E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 178E today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 133W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs near 130W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C but with cool anomalies even west of there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/9) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W and showing some signs of strengthening today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/9): A solid stream of cooling waters were positioned on the equator from the Galapagos west to 140W then moderating west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (10/9) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10) Today's temps were stable at -1.666 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10) Temps were falling again at -0.941 today after dropping to -0.945 on 9/22, the lowest so far in the La Nina event. The previous low was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/10) Today the model indicates temps at -1.4 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.4 degs in late Nov holding in early Dec then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.5 degs in May. This is beginning to look like a 2 year event.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/10): The daily index was positive today at 14.31. The 30 day average was rising at +11.82. The 90 day average was steady at 8.15, suggesting a La Nina pattern was developing. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table