Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 211 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 81.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 11.3 secs from 334 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 11.5 secs from 336 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 12.5 secs from 190 degrees. Wind southeast 4 kts. Water temperature 68.4 degs, 64.6 (Harvest 071), 68.0 (Topanga 103), 65.3 (Long Beach 215), 68.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 67.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 7.8 secs from 311 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.7 ft @ 7.8 secs from 311 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 17.1 secs from 214 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.1 ft @ 16.4 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.0 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 0.8 ft @ 19.4 secs from 184 degrees. Water temperature 66.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 8.5 secs from 323 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), N 2 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 4 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.8 (San Francisco 46026), 63.0 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 60.6 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (10/6) in North and Central CA surf was waist high coming from the northwest and weakly lined up and clean but soft with some intermixed light warble and mostly clean early. Protected breaks were up to waist high and weakly lined up and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean early. In Ventura County waves were knee high and weak and clean and soft and barely rideable on a longboard. Central Orange County had very rare sets at thigh to maybe waist high breaking on the beach and clean coming from the south. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to head high on occasion and lined up and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high plus and lined up and clean with decent form early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The South Shore had rare sets at waist to near chest high and lined up with decent form and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high plus and fairly clean with light northeast winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (10/6) Hawaii's North Shore were getting swell from a gale previously north of the Islands. California was getting minimal locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii's South Shore was getting background southern hemi swell likely originating from the Tasman Sea. Swell is to continue fading for North Shores of the Hawaiian Islands from a gale the previously developed just east of the dateline Thurs-Fri (10/3) with 16-18 ft seas aimed southeast targeting only the Islands. And another developed west of the dateline Fri (10/3) lifting northeast with seas 26 ft before moving north of the Central Aleutians. Looking forward a gale is to develop off the Kurils on Thurs (10/9) with 40 ft seas aimed east tracking to the North Dateline while fading on Fri (10/10). And Typhoon Halong just south of Japan is to recurve east Thurs-Fri (10/10) with seas building briefly to 46 ft aimed east. And another gale is forecast Sat (10/11) off the Kuril Islands with 26 ft seas aimed east. Fall is setting up but focused over the Northwest Pacific. In the South Pacific a gale developed over the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (10/5) with 26-29 ft seas over a small area aimed north-northeast. After that nothing obvious is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (10/6) the jet was tracking east off the South Kuril Islands starting to form a trough off the Kurils ridging northeast tracking north of the Central Aleutians then falling weakly southeast over the Northern Gulf then east into North Canada but not offering any real support for gale development yet. Over the next 72 hours the developing trough off the Kurils is to build while tracking east reaching the dateline on Wed (10/8) being fed by 160 kts winds offering some decent support gale development. And that trough is to dig in more on Thurs (10/9) before lifting northeast and into the Bering Sea on Fri (10/10). Also a backdoor trough is to develop pushing off Washington on Wed (10/8) while starting to fall south offering only potential for weather. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (10/11) a stronger trough is to develop pushing east off the Kuril Islands being fed by 180 kts winds offering some support for gale formation but lifting northeast of the Central Aleutians quickly on Sun (10/12). And the cutoff/backdoor trough off Washington is to fall south stalling off Oregon and holding there into Fri (10/10) then moving onshore likely just producing weather there. By Mon (10/13) the jet is to be consolidated tracking east on the 40N latitude line then gently lifting northeast through the Northwestern Gulf with winds 130-140 kts offering some support for gale development. This actually looks like an improving pattern, consistent with the low pressure/high pressure bias defined by MJO models months ago.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (10/6) no swell of interest was hitting California. Swell from a low previously over the dateline was fading in Hawaii (see Dateline low below). And tiny swell from a gale previously west of the dateline was tracking towards California (see West Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (10/8) a gale is forecast developing over the North Kuril Islands producing northwest winds at 50+ kts starting to get traction. On Thursday AM (10/9) the gale is forecast pushing east off the North Kuril Islands with 50 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 47.5N 160.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to hold position at 45 kts with seas 37 ft at 48N 168E aimed east. On Fri AM (10/10) fetch is to be blowing at 40 kts from the Kuril ISlands to almost the dateline with seas 34 ft at 48N 170E aimed east generating swell propagating east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts and lifting north with seas fading from 29 ft at 50N 175E aimed east. Fetch is to be gone in the evening. Something to monitor.

And Typhoon Halong is to recuve to the east Wed PM (10/8) (see Tropical Update for details).

Dateline Low - Hawaii
Low pressure developed east of the dateline Wed AM (10/1) with northwest winds 30-35 kts falling southeast with seas building. In the evening the gale had 30-35 kt northwest winds over a tiny area with seas building from 16 ft at 44N 180W aimed southeast. The gale fell southeast on Thurs AM (10/2) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 18 ft at 39.5N 173W aimed southeast. The gale is to continued southeast in the evening with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 17 ft at 43N 168.5W aimed southeast. Fetch faded out Fri AM (10/3). Small swell possible for Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell fading Mon (10/6) from 3.2 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330-335 degrees

West Dateline Gale
And another gale developed Thurs PM (10/2) 700 nmiles east of the Central Kuril Islands with northwest winds 40 kts and seas building to 23 ft at 43.5N 165E aimed east. On Fri AM (10/3) the gale tracked northeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 47.25N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was north of the Aleutians on the dateline with seas fading from 22 ft at 49.75N 177W aimed east. The gale was gone after that. No swell is to result for for the Hawaiian Islands.

North CA: Minimal background energy is forecast arriving on Wed (10/8) but only at 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/9) from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) Swell Direction: 304 degrees

Tropical Update
Typhoon Halong on Mon AM (10/6) Halong was 600 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan with winds 70 kts tracking northwest. Halong is to build into Wed (10/8) with winds reaching 130 kts in the evening (150 mph) 240 nmiles south of Kyoto Japan and starting to recuve northeast. On Thurs (10/9) Halong is to be racing east with winds 110 kts (125 mph) and seas 46 ft at 33N 146E aimed east. Halong is to be half way to the dateline on Fri (10/10) with winds 70 kts and seas fading from 38 ft at 34.75N 155.25E. Halong is to be dissipating just west of the dateline Sat AM (10/11) with seas fading from 28 ft at 40N 175E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Hurricane Priscilla is to be just south of Cabo San Lucas Tues (10/7) with winds 85-95 kts (110 mph) and tracking northwest and into the Southern CA swell window on Wed evening (10/8) with winds 75 kts (85 mph) on the 159 deg track to Dana Point. Priscilla is to continue tracking northwest and deeper into the Southern CA swell window Thurs PM (10/9) with winds barely hurricane force 70 kts and on the 175 degree path to Dana Point. Priscilla to be fading fast while stalling after that 600 nmiles south of Dana Point. Swell seems likely for exposed breaks in Southern CA. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tues AM (10/7) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon or winds turning south at 1-5 kts. No windswell forecast.
Wed AM (10/8) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for North CA and south 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and south 5 kts for Central CA. No windswell of interest forecast.
Thurs AM (10/9) weak low pressure is to be building off South Oregon with northwest winds 10 kts in North CA and south 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (10/10) weak low pressure is to be off Cape Mendocino with south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the low is to hold position with south winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. No real windswell forecast. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later.
Sat AM (10/11) the low is to dissipate with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA. in the afternoon high pressure starts building with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast. Showers for Cape Mendocino early.
Sun AM (10/12) high pressure building in with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North and Central CA.
Mon AM (10/13) a pressure gradient sets up at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. .

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps steady Mon (10/6) at 35-40 degs through Tues (10/7) then rising to 45 degs Wed-Fri (10/10). Temps possibly falling Sat (10/11) to 40-45 degs later and then 35-40 degs Sun (10/12). No snow forecast.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (10/6) tiny swell was hitting California originating from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific (see Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale below). And another tiny gale developed over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

A small gale developed in the South Tasman Sea on Sun PM (10/5) with 45-50 kts south winds and seas 33 ft seas at 50.25S 152E. On Mon AM (10/6) south winds were fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 52.5S 159E aimed northeast. Perhaps small swell to result targeting Hawaii's South Shore but well filtered by Fiji. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Tiny swell arriving on Tues (10/14) building to 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (10/15) from 0.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees

Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Sun PM (9/28) with 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building. On Mon AM (9/29) fetch is to track northeast with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 31 ft at 50.75S 133W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35-40 kts while moving up to the edge of the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 47S 126W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell peaks Mon (10/6) at 1.1 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/7) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed over Central South Pacific Sat AM (10/4) producing 40-45 kt south winds over an infinitesimal area and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 40+ kts over a tiny area tracking northeast with seas 28 ft at 49.25S 148.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/5) south winds were 30-35 kts over a broader with seas 28 ft at 45.25S 141W aimed north. Secondary fetch developed in the evening over the same area at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.5S 135W aimed north. Fetch and seas were gone by Mon AM (10/6). Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/13) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues (10/14) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs steady through the day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/15) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-198 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours on Sat (10/11) a gale is to develop on Sat AM (10/11) just off the North Kuril Islands with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 46.5N 160E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts from the Kurils to the dateline with seas 26 ft at 45N 165E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (10/12) west winds to be 30-35 kts from the Kurils to the dateline if not the Northwestern Gulf with seas 26 ft at 48N 172.5E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 48N 180W aimed east. The gael to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours the model suggests no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/5) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/6) Today mostly moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA through 10/16, then building to near strong status after that through the end of the model run on 10/22.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/5) Currently a neutral MJO (neither dry or wet air) was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral MJO continuing on days 5 and 10 of the model run turing modestly INactive (dry air) on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates the MJO turning weakly Inactive (dry air) on days 5 and 10 of the model run turning strong Inactive on day 15. It seem we're heading into some flavor of modest Inactive pattern.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/6) - The models depict the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it sitting stationary 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the MJO is to retrograde west to Africa then building to moderate status tracking east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/5) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/7 then moderate west anomalies start building into the KWGA associated with a Equatorial Rossby Wave from the west reaching east of the dateline 10/8 holding to 10/13, then steadily retrograding to 150E on 10/15 and continuing to retrograde west reaching the west edge of the KWGA on 10/19 and gone. East anomalies to rebuild starting on the dateline 10/16 building in coverage and filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/31. Inactive contours are to push into the West KWGA 10/17 holding through 10/26 then fading and retrograding west. A very weak MJO pattern continues.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today no MJO contours were indicated with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has weak west anomalies setting up filling the KWGA to the dateline 10/7-10/18. A very weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting 10/20 with east anomalies from 150E and points east of there holding till 11/5. Neutral to weak west anomalies to be west of 150E. The Active Phase of the MJO is to take over 11/2-12/20 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA if not most of the Equatorial Pacific. A weak Inactive pattern is indicated setting up 11/23 through the end of the model run on 1/3/26 but with moderate west anomalies holding filling most of the equatorial Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through 11/5 then starting to push east. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through 11/7 then retrograding with the high pressure bias disappearing 12/17. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are stationary now but the low pressure bias is to are to start pushing east on 11/5 reaching the dateline at the end of the model run in early Jan. This is a major change in the right direction.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (10/6) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 174E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east moving from 173W to 171W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding from 120W to 130W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 165E. And cold anomalies down to -2 degrees at 140W were at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. But, these temps have warmed significantly compared to even a few days ago when they were down to -4 degs. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/30 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline east of 145W (moving east from 160W the last 10 days) to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/30) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -15 cms at 120W. Heights were weakly above normal from 175E and points west of there. The cool pool is steady over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/30) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 146W to 88W. Warm anomalies were west of 150W (previously 165W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/5) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 175E and consistent in density across it's width. This looks like a clearly developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/5): Temps were warming over the equatorial Pacific except between 125-140W where it was cooling slightly.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/6) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at -0.563 after rising to -0.109 (9/23) and had been rising since 9/8. Temps have been at roughly -0.8 there since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/6) Today's temps were rising at -0.843 after falling to -1.078 on 9/27. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at -0.5 as of 10/1. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/24), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.32 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.46 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug and -0.5 in Sept.
Forecast (10/4) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.80 mid-Oct, -0.90 Nov, rising -0.80 mid-Dec and technically neutral mid-Jan at -0.4 degs then neutral (0.0) in Mar 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs in Oct and holding there into Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/6) the Daily Index was positive at 8.31 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was fading at +0.54 and has been generally falling from +5.02 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +3.78 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.60 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.