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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 4, 2022 2:01 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.1 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/3 thru Sun 10/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small NPac Swell Hitting HI
One Last SPac Swell Tracking North - Increasing Hope for NPac

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 221 degrees. Water temp 81.3 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.0 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 16 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.4 secs from 200 degrees. Wind north at 2 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 68.7 (Topanga 103), 66.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 66.9 (Del Mar 153), 70.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 18.9 secs from 286 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 17.1 secs from 200 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 17.9 secs from 193 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) this buoy was down.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 10.3 secs from 311 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.2 ft @ 17.2 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 14-16 kts. Water temp 57.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.6 (Pt Reyes 46013), 60.3 (46026), 61.0 (SF Bar 142), 61.2 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 64.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/4) North and Central CA had windswell coming from the northwest at waist to maybe chest high and lined up but warbled and kinda messy. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and soft and crumbled and not really rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean but uneven and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up but crumbled and uneven with light northwest wind on it. Central Orange County had sets to maybe waist high and somewhat lined up but soft and clean and uneven. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to chest high on the peak and sort of lined up and clean with decent form but soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean but mostly pretty soft. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at head high or so and lined up and fairly clean but with some warble in the water early. The South Shore was waist to near chest high and lined up with good form when it came and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast swell at 2 ft overhead and lined up and lightly chopped from northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/4) California was getting minimal background southern hemi swell. Hawaii was getting swell from a small cutoff low that developed north-northeast of Hawaii on Sat (10/1) producing 20-21 ft seas falling south into early Sun (10/2). Looking forward a small gale tracked east through the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (10/2) producing 28-30 ft sea over a small area aimed east. Small swell is pushing northeast. After that nothing is forecast. Looking north another small gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Thurs (10/6) potentially generating up to 22 ft seas aimed southeast. But still the Northern Hemi is not indicating any great effort to start becoming productive.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (10/4) the jetstream was ridging over the West Bering Sea then falling solidly southeast of the Eastern Aleutians forming a trough being fed by 120 kt winds offering some decent support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to dig deep into the Gulf on Wed (10/5) but getting cut off from the main flow but still energetically circulating purely cutoff in the Central Gulf through Fri (10/7). Beyond 72 hours that cutoff low is forecast to continue circulating locked over the Central Gulf into Mon (10/10) before fading out but offering some support for gale or at least low pressure development during that window. But over the Northwest Pacific the jet is to be running hard northeast from Japan up into the Bering Sea pretty much over the Kuril and Aleutian Islands with winds 150 kts. We just need it to fall south into the North Pacific. But on Tues (10/11) the jet is to start falling south over the Northwestern Gulf with winds to 180 kts starting to carve out a trough. Something to monitor.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/4) swell from a cutoff low that formed in the Central Gulf was hitting Hawaii (see Cutoff Low below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to form in the Northwestern Gulf offering some potential (see Another Cutoff Gulf Low below).

 

Cutoff Low Pressure for Hawaii
On Fri PM (9/30) a cutoff low developed 1200 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii producing north winds at 25 kts starting to get some traction aimed south. Fetch started falling south Sat AM (10/1) with north winds at 30 kts and seas building from 14 ft at 39N 145W somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening fetch fell south at 35-40 kts with seas 21 ft at 38N 146W aimed south-southwest. The gale started fading Sun AM (10/2) with 30-35 kt north winds and 19 ft seas at 36N 150W aimed south and targeting the Islands. The low pressure systems is to fade and track east from there.

Oahu - North Shore: Swell is to arrive Tues AM (10/4) at 4.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed AM (10/5) fading from 2.9 ft @ 10 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 15-20 degrees.

 

Another Cutoff Gulf Low
A gale was developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues AM (10/4) falling south from the East Aleutian Islands producing 30-35 kts northwest winds over a tiny area and seas 20 ft at 50.75N 165.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to fall southeast in the evening at 35 kts with seas 21 ft at 48N 163.5W aimed southeast. This system is to continue over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed AM (10/5) with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 44N 158W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading in coverage at 30 kts from the northwest with seas 19 ft at 43.5N 160W aimed southeast. Something to monitor for both Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (10/7) building to 5.0 ft @ 14 secs later (7.0 ft).

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sat (10/8) at 3.0 ft @ 13 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft).

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (10/5) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA holding all day if not building to 20 kts over most of North CA later. No windswell forecast.
  • Thurs AM (10/6) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for North CA south of Pt Arena and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Central CA. No real windswell is forecast.
  • Fri AM (10/7) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception early and holding all day. Limited north windswell for exposed breaks later.
  • Sat AM (10/8) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception and holding all day. Limited north windswell for exposed breaks early.
  • Sun AM (10/9) northwest winds to be 5 kts for all of North and Central CA turning westerly in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
  • Mon (10/10) west to southwest winds to be 1-5 kts early for all of North and Central CA holding all day. No windswell production forecast.
  • Tues (10/11) light winds are forecast over all of North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 12,5000 ft today and is to hold for the foreseeable future.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water hitting or immediately tracking towards Hawaii and California.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously crossing the South Pacific is to be tracking northeast (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Central Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (9/30) a small gale developed under New Zealand with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft over a small area aimed east at 54S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (10/1) fetch built some at 35-40 kts tracking east with seas 29 ft at 53S 175W aimed east. In the evening fetch continued east over the Central South Pacific at 35-45 kts from the southwest with seas 31 ft over a tiny area at 54.5S 158.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (10/2) southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 51.5S 146.5W aimed east. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 30-35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 27 ft at 50S 138.5W aimed northeast. Low odds of swell production. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Small swell to arrive on Sat (10/8) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun AM (10/9) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon AM (10/10) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues AM (10/11) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (10/11) to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (10/12) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (10/13) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (10/11) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (10/12) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (10/13) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours cutoff low pressure previously in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska is to redevelop some on Fri PM (10/7) producing a small area of north winds at 30+ kts with seas 18 ft at 36.75N 154.25W aimed south. Some degree of northerly winds and seas in the 15-17 ft range are to persist there into Sun (10/9) and then weaker beyond. Something to monitor.

On Tues (10/11) the GFS model is suggesting a developing low pressure systems in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska with 30 kt north winds and seas building associated with a strongly developing trough over that area. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no clear swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Underway
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected reinforcing in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading by Winter turning neutral. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east to neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/4) Moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies starting to fade while tracking east on 10/7 and then mostly east of the dateline the last day of the model run on 10/11. The GFS 925 mb wind anomaly chart depicts west anomalies building from Ecuador to the dateline 10/18 to 10/20.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/3) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a weak Active MJO signal starting to develop over the far West KWGA on day 5 of the model run building and filling the KWGA on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but the signal not as strong only at moderate strength.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/4) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Maritime Continent and is slowly track east while building to moderate strength over the far West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model suggest the same thing but with strength only modest.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/4) A moderate Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over Ecuador today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase moving east and no longer in the Pacific on 10/14. A modest Active Phase (wet air) is to push east and into the KWGA starting 10/9 and then slowly easing east filling the Pacific 10/14 moving into Ecuador at the end of the model run on 11/13. A modest Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/3 filling the KWGA at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/3)
A weak Inactive signal was indicated today trying to push into the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Inactive Phase stalled in the far West KWGA through 10/5 then fading with east anomalies fading some to moderate strength on 10/7 then rebuilding on 10/11 holding through 10/17, then rebuilding again on 10/28. At the same time west anomalies are to start pushing into the West KWGA reaching to 150E on 10/19, then fading fast with east anomalies in control.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(10/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today east anomalies were over the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO filling the KWGA. Moderate east anomalies are forecast filling the KWGA through 10/17. But in the west a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing into the KWGA in earnest on 10/8 expanding coverage and filling it on 10/17 with west anomalies building in behind expanding east from Maritime Continent to the dateline on 10/20 and filling in more beyond. This would be a huge change if it develops as forecast. The key date is 10/31 for the demise of east anomalies and presumably La Nina. The Active Phase is to fade on 12/23 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO following 11/31 through the end of the model run on 1/1/2023 but with weak west anomalies in control the whole time. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold into October then collapse on 12/25 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 10/28 then starting to ease east and collapsing on 12/25 and gone beyond. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today but is forecast retrograding to 123E on 10/18 then starting to ease east to 145E at the end of the model run. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then dissipate completely by 10/31 with west anomalies taking over the KWGA beyond. And the High Pressure Bias is dissipate in late Dev. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 26 degree isotherm was at 154W today, previously at 145W. The 24 deg isotherm had backtracked from Ecuador to 133W and was easing east from 130W to 122W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 150W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 110W and filling the area from 141W and points east of there but they appear to be easing east, fading and losing density. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/30 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/30) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific and starting to move east reaching to 155W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 150W with a previous broad core at -15 cms now repositioned east at 110W with -10 cm anomalies holding from the Galapagos to 140W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to Ecuador and easing east. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/3) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 115W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/3): Mostly warming water is on the equator from Ecuador to 130W. The trend was to wards warming.
Hi-res Overview: (10/3) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be building some on the equator with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.314 after falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling slightly at -0.861 after peaking at -0.819 on 9/22 and have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps at -0.807 degs and rising. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept.
Forecast (10/4) - Temps are to be falling from about -1.0 degs in Sept to -1.30 degs mid-Oct then slowly rising in Nov before starting a quick rise in Dec and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Feb 2023 and up to +0.40 degs in June and heading up from there presumably. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.10 in mid Oct and are to slowly start creeping up in Nov and Dec then starting a steep upward climb from -0.85 degs in Jan rising above La Nina threshold in Feb and rising from there forward to +0.40 degs in April/May. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.957 degs today. Temps to hold in Oct at -0.925 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.658 in Dec and -0.445 in Jan rising to +0.172 in May. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/4) the Daily Index was rising hard at +32.81. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +18.89 after peaking at +19.66 on. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +12.04 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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