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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, October 3, 2020 10:53 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/5 thru Sun 10/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

One More Gulf Swell For CA
One Small SHemi Swell Too

On Saturday, October 3, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 12.7 secs from 289 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 10.2 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 207 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 70.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 12.5 secs from 292 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.9 secs from 240 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 234 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 11.2 secs from 300 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 8-12 kts. Water temp 52.5 degs (013), 59.0 degs (SF Bar) and 58.5 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Saturday (10/3) in North and Central CA Gulf swell was fading producing waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up but kinda broken up with no wind but totally fogged in early. Protected breaks were waist high or so and weak and soft but clean and again fogged in. At Santa Cruz no real swell was left with sets waist to chest high and weak but clean and slow. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and clean and weak. Central Orange County had set waves at chest to shoulder high coming from the south and lined up and clean but foggy. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest high and lined up with clean conditions and again foggy. North San Diego had sets at waist high and clean and lined up but inconsistent and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting the last of the final Gulf swell with waves up to head high at top spots and clean and peeling with no wind early. The South Shore was flat with clean conditions. The East Shore was getting wrap around north swell with waves head high and clean early with no trades blowing.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (10/3) Southern California was still getting the fading last remnants of southern hemi swell originating from a system that developed under New Zealand on Sat (9/19) tracking east through the deep Central and Southeast Pacific into Tues (9/22) producing seas up 41 ft aimed east. And North CA was getting little remnants of swell from a gale that developed in the Central Gulf on Tues (9/29) producing 28 ft seas aimed east. And Hawaii was getting remnant swell energy from yet another weak and small gale that developed while tracking through the Central Gulf on Wed-Thurs (10/1) producing 24 ft seas aimed east. But beyond no decent swell producing weather systems are forecast for the North Pacific. Down south one last small system developed under New Zealand Mon-Tues (9/29) producing up to 39 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well north. That swell is bound for Hawaii starting Mon (10/5) with only minimal energy forecast making it to CA. Beyond nothing clear is forecast though perhaps a weak gale is to form under New Zealand on Mon-Wed (10/7) producing 31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. But the North Pacific is taking a break. And Hurricane Marie is churning west-northwest positioned southwest of California offering some odds for producing small swell in the immediate future.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Saturday (10/3) the jet was consolidated tracking due east off North Japan with winds 130 kts in pockets lifting gently northeast once over the dateline into the Western Gulf of Alaska then lifting northeast and moving inland over Central Canada. No troughs were indicated offering no real support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a weak trough is forecast developing over the Western Gulf on Sun PM (10/4) the trough in the Gulf is to slowly lift northeast and lose identity late Fri (10/2) no longer offering support for gale development. From then into Sun (10/4) quickly pinching off on Monday in the Western Gulf while a fairly solid ridge starts building east of the Kuril Islands being fed by 160 kt wind on Tues (10/6) tracking over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (10/8) there's some sense that the ridge is to moderate and track east with 180 kts tracking east over the Northwestern Gulf feeding into a tight pinched trough circulating 900 nmiles off North CA. The apex of that trough is to push east perhaps impacting San Francisco on Sat (10/10) perhaps generating some windswell and some weather for very dry land there. And back to the west then jet is to be flowing due east on the 40N latitude line from Japan eastward with embedded pockets of wind energy to 140 kts. No troughs are forecast but the overall setup looks promising.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/3) swell was fading out in California from a gale previously in the Gulf of Alaska (see Another Gulf Gale below). And yet one more Gulf swell is right behind (see Final Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


Another Gulf Gale
Another small gale started developing in the Central Gulf of Alaska on Mon PM (9/28) producing 40-45 kt north winds and seas building to 25 ft over a tiny area at 42N 161W aimed south at Hawaii. The gale tracked east Tues AM (9/29) with 40-45 kt northwest winds over a modest sized area and seas building to 27 ft at 42.5N 155W aimed southeast and targeting more of California than Hawaii. The gale was lifting northeast in the evening with 40+ kt northwest winds targeting California up into British Columbia with 27 ft seas at 44.5N 150W aimed east. The gale was lifting north while fading on Wed AM (9/30) with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 25 ft up at 49.5N 148W aimed east. The gale faded out from there.

North CA: Dribbles early Sat (10/3) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell DIrection: 292 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading Sat (10/3) from 1.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees


Final Gulf Gale
Another small gale developed 1100 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Wed AM (9/30) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 37N 167W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 35-40 kt north winds and seas to 23 ft at 37N 159W aimed southeast. The gale was lifting northeast Thurs AM (10/1) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 43.5N 152W aimed east. Fetch momentarily built in the evening to 45 kts from the west with seas 34 ft at 47.5N 149W aimed east. The gale tracked north from there with no fetch aimed anywhere but at Alaska after that.

Hawaii: Residuals fading Sat AM (10/3) from 2.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 340 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Sun (10/4) building to 4.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft) holding into early afternoon. Swell fading Mon (10/5) from 3.8 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (10/6) fading from 3.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292-302 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/4) building to 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (10/5) from 1.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) fading out through the day. Swell Direction: 293-303 degrees


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
Hurricane Marie was positioned 1100 nmiles south of San Diego CA on Thurs AM (10/1) tracking west-northwest with max sustained winds of 90 kts. No swell was radiating north. Marie slowly strengthened while holding on a west-northwest peaking Fri PM (10/2) with winds 115 kts (132 mph) about 1050 nmiles southwest of San Diego and held into Sat AM (10/3). still tracking west-northwest. Low odds for small swell radiating towards the US West Coast. Marie is to continue on the same heading while slowly fading all but gone by Tues AM (10/6).

Southern CA: Low odds of swell arrival on Sun (10/4) building to 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs later (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (10/5) at 4.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/6) from 3.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (10/7) fading from 2.3 ft @ 10 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 turning to 215 degrees

North CA: Low odds of swell arrival on Mon (10/5) building to 3.5 ft @ 13 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/6) from 3.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (10/7) fading from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 turning to 195 degrees


California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (10/3) northwest winds were calm nearshore in North CA but modeled at 15 kts and 10-15 kts over all of Central CA. Winds forecast building to 15-20 kts solid later everywhere north of Pt Conception. On Sun (10/4) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA holding into the evening. Mon (10/5) a light eddy flow (south winds) is forecast south of Cape Mendocino but with north winds 20-25 kts for northern Cape Mendocino early fading to near calm later. Tues (10/6) calm to light northwest winds at 5-10 kts (later) to prevail over the state all day. No change on Wed or Thurs (10/8). Fri (10/9) light northwest wind are forecast at 10 kts for Central CA early and calm for North CA turning south at 15-20 kts for the Pt Arena area later and south to 5 kts down to Big Sur as a front and low pressure approach the coast. Sat (10/10) south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and south at 5-10 kts for Central CA building to 15+ kts every later. No precipitation is forecast for the week with an upper level ridge/high pressure in control of the Great Basin but breaking down with a front and the remnants of what was Hurricane Marie impacting the North and Central Coast on Sat AM (10/10).

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 4-5 inches max on 10/11-10/12. Freezing level right at 14,000 ft for the next 7 days falling to 12,500 ft on 10/7 and then down to 7000 ft possibly on 10/11 holding thru at least 10/12.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/3) swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand and tracked east was all but gone in CA (See South Pacific Gale below). Another gale developed under New Zealand with swell from it radiating mainly north towards HI (see New Zealand Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.


South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing under New Zealand just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Sat PM (9/19) producing a 40-45 kt southwest winds resulting in seas at 38 ft aimed east at 59.5S 179.5W tracking east. On Sun AM (9/20) southwest winds were 40 kts over a solid area with seas building to 39 ft at 60S 172W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds built to 40-45 kts over a broad and solid area aimed east-northeast with seas 40 ft at 59.5S 162.5W aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (9/21) 40 kt west-southwest winds were covering a large area with seas 40 ft at 59S 150W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening while pushing east at 40 kts from the west still over a solid area with seas fading from 36 ft at 57.5S 137W aimed east. On Tues AM (9/22) fetch was fading over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 33 ft at 58S 120W aimed east. In the evening a lingering fetch of west winds to hold at 40-45 kts barely in the SCal swell window with seas 28-30 ft at 53S 119W aimed east. This system continued tracking east offering energy only up into Chile. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Sat (10/3) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees


New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun AM (9/27) producing 45-55 kt south winds and seas starting to develop. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds were just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf pushing north producing seas building to 39 ft at 57S 172E aimed north. On Mon AM (9/28) south winds were fading from 40 kts holding in place and seas 28-30 ft near 55S 178E aimed north. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35 kts from the south with 25 ft seas fading at 55S 172E aimed north. By Tues AM (9/29) fetch was gone. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell arrival expected on Mon (10/5) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell peaking late on Tues (10/6) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Wed (10/7) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/8) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 215 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early.Swel Direction: 214 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But there are suggestions of some sort of gale developing under New Zealand on Tues AM (10/6) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas building to 30 ft at 51S 178W aimed east-northeast. In the evening winds to hold at 35-40 kts but over a smaller area with seas 31 ft at 51.5S 169W aimed east-northeast. On Wed AM (10/7) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 49.5S 156W aimed east-northeast. The gael is to fade from there. Something to monitor.



MJO/ENSO Forecast


Cold Water and La Nina Steady over Equatorial Pacific

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/2) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial building to modest over the Central Pacific and then building to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/3) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding unchanged and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/10 and if anything building to strong status the last 2 days of the model run and also building east over the Central and East Pacific the last day of the model run. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to only weaken more later in the forecast period.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/2) A modest Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to hold at modest status on days 5 and 10, then building to moderate status on day 15. The dynamic model suggests much the same but with the Active Phase holding at modest strength unchanged through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/3) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Maritime Continent today and is to collapse while tracking east into the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to hold stationary over the next 15 days but maybe strengthening some the last 5 days of the model run to moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/2) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. The weak Active pattern is to push east and into Central America on 10/24 having almost no benefit to storm production. A very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 10/22 tracking to the East Pacific and into Central America at the end of the model run on 11/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/2) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal today but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates no coherent MJO signal forecast but with mostly east anomalies over the KWGA building to strong status on 10/9 holding to 10/16 then fading some but still moderate and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/3 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active Phase of the MJO effectively gone over the KWGA today but with east anomalies still controlling the area. A weak Inactive MJO signal is forecast 10/7-10/15 with mostly weak to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA but with somewhat stronger east anomalies setting up east of the dateline filling the area to Ecuador. The Active Phase is to try and return on 10/14 and somewhat coherent holding in the KWGA into 11/4 producing weak west anomalies in pockets but mostly east anomalies filling the KWGA and east anomalies holding over the East Pacific. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/14 tracking east through 12/8 producing mostly east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 12/6-12/22 with weak to modest west anomalies over the KWGA but with east anomalies holding over the East Pacific. Beyond the Inactive Phase is to set up from 12/25 through the end of the model run on 12/31 a mix of east and west anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run while perhaps easing east some with the western edge of the high pressure bias slowly moving east through the period positioned at 170E at the end of the model run. At that time a third contour line is to develop. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. And a second contour line is forecast developing then in its core. Its core is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year are migrating east through the West Pacific today and should continue tracking east then stabilizing setting up over the East Pacific late Sept and holding for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina. The good news is that at least at this early date, this might end up being a short lived event.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 162E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west to 179W today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs near 125W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C but with cool anomalies even west to there to 170E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 170W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were weak but still present along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador at -5 cms and then reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. But looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Baja south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/2) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W but not as cold as day past. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/2): A mix of warming and cooling pockets were positioned on the equator from just west of Ecuador over the Galapagos and west to 160W but the balance was trending towards the warmer pockets.
Hi-res Overview: (10/2) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/3) Today's temps were up slightly again at -1.380 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/3) Temps were rising slightly at -0.778 today after dropping to -0.945 on 9/22, the lowest so far in the La Nina event. The previous low was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/24 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/3) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range early this year through March, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilizing near neutral into late June. They began falling again in July down to -0.80 mid-Sept. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.05 degs in late Nov holding in early Dec then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.15 degs in May.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.52 degs today, and are to fall in early Nov to -0.60 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.25 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing modest La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/3): The daily index was positive today at 10.44. The 30 day average was falling weakly at +9.85. The 90 day average was rising to 7.87, suggesting a La Nina pattern was developing. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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