Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Buoy 239 is Down - Using 238. Seas were 5.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 12.4 secs from 212 degrees. Water temp 81.3 (Barbers Pt), 81.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 9.8 secs from 94 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 265 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs, NA (Hanalei).
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.7 secs from 200 degrees. Wind northwest 12-14 kts. Water temperature 71.8 degs, 65.1 (Harvest 071), 72.5 (Topanga 103), 69.8 (Long Beach 215), 73.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.0 (Del Mar 153), 73.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 292 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.0 ft @ 7.9 secs from 259 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 17.8 secs from 217 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.2 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.8 secs from 222 degrees. Water temperature 72.7.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 13.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 9.6 ft @ 8.5 secs from 320 and actual swell buried underneath that at 5.6 ft @ 13.3 sec from 295 degrees. Wind northwest 6-8 kts (San Francisco 46026), NW 16-20 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 18-20 kts (Half Moon Bay 46012) and NW 16-18 (Monterey Bay (46042). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.6 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.5 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 60.4 (Half Moon Bay 46012), 62.2 (Monterey Bay 46042), 59.0 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/29) in North and Central CA surf was head high and lined up coming from the northwest and warbled and uneven and soft from brisk northwest wind well off the coast early. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up and closed out with some modest warble intermixed but with clean surface conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and lined up but mostly soft and mushed but clean with heavy fog early. In Ventura County surf was thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and very soft and clean on the surface but with a lot of lump in the mix early. Central Orange County had sets at up to waist all breaking on the inner bar and mostly just closing out just off the beach and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest high and lined up with decent form but most wave were just waist to chest high and clean and weak early. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with good form and clean but soft and a bit irregular early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest high and lined up and clean early. The South Shore had sets at chest to head high and lined up with decent form but with brisk trades producing cross lump running through it early. The East Shore was getting tradewind generated easterly windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/29) North California was seeing mostly locally generated northwest windswell up north and background swell from a gale that previously developed over the Central Aleutians on Thurs-Fri (9/25) producing 26-29 ft seas aimed east. Southern CA was seeing tiny background southern hemi swell. Hawaii was getting background energy from the north and south but of no real interest. Looking forward no obvious swell producing weather systems are forecast in the North Pacific though the tropics remain very active. A small gale tracked northeast from under New Zealand Sun-Tues (9/29) producing 26-28 ft seas. Perhaps tiny swell to result. And the model keep teasing about some sort of a gale developing east of New Zealand beyond, but the closer we get to it actually forming it just fades away from the charts. So suspect the Southern Hemi is now asleep for the Fall and Winter.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (9/29) the jetstream was split in the far West then consolidating over the dateline falling south into a trough being fed by 130 kt winds offering some support for gale development then lifting/ridging northeast through the Eastern Gulf pushing into Central Canada providing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the Dateline trough is to quickly pinch off on Wed (9/30) offering nothing with the rest of the jet generally tracking east on the 48N latitude line with winds 120 kts offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (10/2) another trough is forecast setting up in the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 160 kt winds tracking east before pinching off Sat (10/3) likely getting no traction and offering nothing. Yet another trough is forecast over the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (10/6) being fed by 150 kts winds and likely suffering the same fate as those before it. No sign of El Ninos influence over the far North Pacific is indicated and if anything it looks like La Nina, perhaps indicating the PDO is muting it's impact.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (9/29) swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region was supposedly moving into North CA but was buried in locally generated windswell (see North Dateline Gale below). No other swell of interest was being generated over the North Pacific.

North Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (9/24) a gale developed west of the dateline and barely south of the West Aleutians with west winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 27 ft at 53.25N 171E and mostly shadowed by the Aleutians. In the evening 45 kt west winds moved just east of the dateline and only 40 kts winds were south of the Aleutians with seas 29-30ft over a small area at 51N 179E aimed east and unshadowed. On Fri AM (9/25) west winds were fading from 35 kts over the far NW Gulf of Alaska with seas 27 ft at 52N 170W aimed east-southeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 51N 162W aimed east-southeast. Small swell is possible.

North CA: Swell to peak on Tues (9/29) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-AM (4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (9/30) from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft) Swell direction: 306 degrees

Southern CA: Swell from Polo is to be fading Tues AM (9/29) from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 159-167 degs.

Hurricane Nolo was 240 nmiles southwest of Kauai Tues AM 99/29) lifting northwest with winds fading from 100 kts (115 mph). Nolo it to turn to a due west track Wed AM (9/30) and fading with winds 70 kts. No meaningful southerly swell positioned is forecast per the models for Oahu.

No other tropical systems of interest were occurring. But beyond Nolo is to rebuild while tracking west and a broad system is forecast 800 nmiles southeast of Japan on Sun (10/4) while another develops southwest of Baja tracking west. No immediate swell production seems possible for CA or HI.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (9/30) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient fades some with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
Thurs AM (10/1) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade some from 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
Fri AM (10/2) the gradient holds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
Sat AM (10/3) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest at 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon west winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Sun AM (10/4) a weak west windflow is forecast at 5 kts or less. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell forecast.
Mon AM (10/5) no change forecast.
Tues AM (10/6) a weak gradient is forecast over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 20-25 kts mainly off the coast and 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. No real windswell yet.

- - -

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (9/29) tiny background swell from a gale previously under New Zealand was hitting North and Southern CA (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (9/27) southwest fetch at 35-40 kts developed under New Zealand with seas 27 ft at 56.25S 158.75E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch held at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 54.75S 170.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (9/28) a broad area of 30-35 kts southwest winds was southeast of New Zealand with a small core to 40 kts with seas 26-27 ft at 56.25S 174.25E aimed northeast. Fetch continued into the evening lifting northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 51.75S 172.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Tues AM (9/29) from 30+ kts over a decent sized area with seas fading from 26-27 ft at 48.25S 168.75W aimed northeast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/5) building to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaks on Tues (10/6) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (10/7) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/8) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early 2.5 ft).

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (10/7) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Thurs (10/8) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell holds Fri (10/9) at 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fades Sat (10/10) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (10/11) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (10/7) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Thurs (10/8) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holds Fri (10/9) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sat (10/10) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (10/11) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
A primer gale started to develop south of New Zealand Thurs AM (9/17) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 52S 159.5E aimed east. In the evening west-southwest winds build to 45 kts over a tiny area free and clear of New Zealand with seas 27 ft at 53.75S 175E aimed east. On Fri AM (9/18) the gale was building while falling southeast with southwest winds 45 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with seas 32 ft at 56.5S 171.25W aimed east. A new gale is to be building under Tasmania too. In the evening the new gale was taking over with 50 kts west winds south of the Tasman Sea and shadowed relative to California with 37 ft seas at 51.75S 152.25E aimed northeast pushing swell up into the Tasman Sea. On Sat AM (9/19) 45 kts southwest winds were due south of New Zealand with 38 ft seas at 51.5S 163E aimed east-northeast up the 222 degree path to Southern CA but shadowed relative to North CA. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts pushing up the southeast coast of New Zealand with seas fading form 28 ft at 52S 170E aimed northeast targeting North and Southern CA. Fetch was gone after that.

Southern CA: Swell holds on Tues (9/29) at 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell fades on Wed (9/30) from 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). nothing after that. Swell Direction: 221 degrees

North CA: Swell holds on Tues (9/29) at 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fades on Wed (9/30) from 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). nothing after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The long range GFS model keeps teasing about something developing in the Gulf around Oct 8th (previously it was Oct 5th), so none of it is believable.

El Nino In Control Over the Equatorial Pacific
Large Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 Erupting off Ecuador - Kevin Wave #5 Backfilling the Warm Pool
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warm subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #2. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 started impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 developed with strong west anomalies holding into 4/15. Large Kelvin Wave #3 started erupting over Ecuador early April. And another huge Westerly Wind Burst developed over the KWGA 5/17-8/2 setting up Kelvin Waves #4 that erupted in early July and #5 backfilling the warm pool in early Aug through Sept. Lower pressure is building over the dateline and high pressure is building over the Maritime Continent. A full turn to El Nino has set up over the equatorial Pacific, and likely strong. West anomalies were rebuilding 8/13 and forecast continuing non-stop for the foreseeable future.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: In the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026) with Kelvin Waves impacting Ecuador Feb 20, March 1, and then a big on on April 15. Then another WWB occurred starting 5/18 and continued non-stop through 8/3 producing 2 more huge Kelvin Waves (#4 erupting 7/5 and #5 erupting/backfilling the East Pacific warm pool starting 8/5). And a major westerly wind burst started again on 8/13 in the West Pacific and is to continue unchanged through at least Nov. The PDO is still weakly in the cool phase as of Aug 2026 but appears to be having no impact on the development of El Nino. A major El Nino is developing, possible stronger than '82 or '97 both of which are considered 'gold standard' events.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/28) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the East Equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest west over the dateline and weak west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific, moderate west over the Central Pacific, strong west over the dateline and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/29) CyclonicWX GFS 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly forecast: Moderate west anomalies are over the KWGA today and forecast holding at moderate status through the end of the model run on 10/9. Actual west winds are present in pockets over the dateline and KWGA and are forecast redeveloping a bit more solidly 9/28 holding through the end of the model run. The ECMWF model suggests the same thing but with actual west winds holding over the dateline and building in coverage filling the KWGA 10/1 through the end of the model run. The AI version of both models suggest west winds rebuilding over the KWGA 10/1 eventually reaching strong status 10/6 through the end of the model run on 10/15. Suspect we are in the proverbial 'calm before the storm'. An amazing run of westerly anomalies started May 18 persisted unchanged through 8/4 (2.5 months), then faded some. But a week later on 8/11 that pattern redeveloped and is forecast holding beyond.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/28) Currently a modest Inactive pattern (dry air) was depicted over the west KWGA. The statistic model depicts an Inactive pattern holding through day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the Inactive Phase almost gone on day 10 holding into day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/29) - Today the models depicts the Active Phase was weak over West Africa. The statistic model has the Active Phase tracking east to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase retrograding to the far East Pacific and weak at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/28) Today west anomalies have faded to modest status. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at modest to moderate status through 10/10 as a single Inactive contour transits the KWGA finally east of the KWGA on 10/20. But on 10/10 a thin pocket of strong west anomalies is to redevelop then building through the end of the model run filling the KWGA on 10/26 with a single Active contour transiting the KWGA. This clearly suggests El Nino is strongly coupled with the atmosphere and the major mode of tropical variability, but the MJO is to be having an impact.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/28) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today modest west anomalies were over the KWGA centered on the dateline with an Inactive Phase easing east over the KWGA. West anomalies are to hold at modest status till 10/12 then building to moderate status as the Inactive Phase pushes across the dateline then fades abruptly on 10/20. West anomalies are to rebuilding to strong status 10/20 and very strong 10/22 as the Active Phase transits the KWGA 10/22 through 11/15. An Inactive Phase is to return transiting the KWGA 11/10 through the end of the model run on 12/26 with west anomalies holding at moderate to strong status just east of the dateline. The Active Phase is to be approaching the dateline at that time. This is not as expected with the Inactive Phase suddenly forecast to make a stand. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is filling the dateline region today with 6 contours (1st over the dateline 4/16, 2nd 6/12, 3rd on 7/9, 4th 7/26, and 5th 8/20 and 6th 9/13). The forecast builds from here forward with a 7th 10/28 holding through the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias is at 120W today with 1 contour and is to fade out in early Nov. A high pressure contour developed over the Maritime Continent at 70E on 6/13 and is to hold there for the foreseeable future building with a second contour on 9/16 and a third on 10/25. A wholesale pressure and wind pattern change has occurred over the equatorial Pacific and that pattern is strengthening day by day as we move into Fall and Winter. El Nino is here and building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (9/29) in the far West Pacific the leading east edge of the 30 degree isotherm was easing east from 140W to 136W, the 29 degree isotherm moving east from 120W to 118W. The 28 deg isotherm line had migrated almost the whole way across the Pacific (96W) then retrograded some, and has now moved from 102W to 100W today. All three are moving east 1 degree over the past 2 days. An amazing push of warm water has moved east in sync with collapse of equatorial tradewinds and is holding today. The 24 deg isotherm had been thickening steadily while pushing into Ecuador down to 79m in June then rose to 69m in late July, but fell back to 79m early Aug then 82m, 90m (8/31) 96m (9/10), 100m (9/24) and 103m today. Anomaly wise this strong change has been reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) Kevin Waves #4 and #5 erupting and backfilling into the warm pool with +4 deg anomalies or more tracking east from 165W and +10-+11 degs (if not 11.5 degs) in it's core 100m down from 130W to Ecuador. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave with +4 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east from 170W into Ecuador and up to +6-7 degs in it's core from 155W to 80W and erupting to the surface in the Pacific east of the dateline. Warm anomalies continue filling the entire subsurface Pacific. The GODAS animation is 5 days behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since it's satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Sea heights over most of the equatorial Pacific were positive from 180W pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast at +10-15 cms and north beyond San Francisco at +5-10 cms. Kelvin Waves #1, #2, #3 and #4 have already hit with Kelvin Wave #5 backfilling into the warm pool filling the entire Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 175E with a large area of +10 cms anomalies pushing east from 172W, +15 cms pushing east from 165W, +20 cm anomalies were filling the area from now 160W (previously 130W and before that 110W) to the Galapagos, +25 cms from 150 cms eastward, +30 cms from 140W eastward. And now a mind melting area of 35+ cm anomalies were rebuilding filling the area from 122W east to 95W versus 115W to 90W in early Sept. Super impressive, and larger in coverage than it's previous peak. The entire equatorial West Pacific warm pool is 'sloshing' east creating a huge reservoir of warm water erupting over the Galapagos.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/25) indicates warm anomalies at +2.5 degs C or more started filling a huge area over the East Pacific (from 155W early July) and continue today. +3.5 degree anomalies started at 140W on 7/15 building to 145W Aug 1, then contracted slightly mid-Aug to 135W, then returned to 145W Sept 1 and are holding there today. On December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan impacting Ecuador March 1. Kelvin Wave #3 started moving east late Feb impacting Ecuador 4/15. Kelvin Wave #4 developed the west mid-May hitting the preexisting warm pool on 7/7 building/backfilling it further to the west. And Kelvin Wave #5 appeared to be backfilling that on 8/1 arriving in the east on 8/15. And Kevin Wave #6 appears to be pushing east now hitting the warm pool on 9/15. A clear sign of discharge was indicated in the west starting late March and stronger mid-April with deeper discharge was occurring over a small area at 155E 7/20 and stronger starting Sept 5. That said, actual water temps are 29-30 degs C in the West and only 27-28 in the East (+2 degs C difference offering more fuel for future Kelvin Wave development). That said - we are starting to approach the point where equilibrium is being reached.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/28) In the latest image a clear El Nino signal was present and expanding in coverage to the west. The area of super warm anomalies (4-5+ degs) were in place from Peru up off Ecuador west to the Galapagos and had expanded west of the Galapagos from 125W to 130W with a solid signal now expanding west to 150W. Kelvin Wave #6 was backfilling into the subsurface Warm pool. Moderate warm anomalies were west of there to 175W and lesser warmth east to New Guinea. The ocean started showing clear signs of El Nino warming at the oceans surface in mid-March and coupled with the atmosphere now (3 months later mid-June). As of 8/28 images are beating the heat coverage at the surface for he same date in 1997. Amazing.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/28): Modest warming was from Ecuador to 100W and neutral west to the dateline today over the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/29) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising fast at +4.551, up from +4.173 (9/24), rising to +4.172 (9/17), up from +4.009 (9/10),.rising from +3.854 (9/8) +3.599 (9/3). Temps have been toggling +3.0-+3.9 since 7/14. Some points include +3.188 (8/28), +3.2904 (8/25), +3.604 (8/17), +3.9 (8/14), +3.738 (7/31) and +3.185 (7/20). Temps in general have been steadily rising. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/29) Today's temps were up slightly at +2.768 up slightly from +2.487 (9/17) up from +2.418 (9/10), +2.252 (9/3). Temps have been hovering at about +2.25 since 8/4 . Some points include +2.347 (8/25), +2.329 (8/17), +2.018 (7/21), +1.845 (7/16), +1.380 (7/4), +1.293 (6/26), 1.316 (6/28), +1.451 (6/21) and had been rising since 6/9, and rising before that steadily from 5/28 at +0.8 degs since (5/2), then +0.597 since 4/23, rising 10 days prior after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly RONI Anomalies were rising at +2.2 up from +2.1 (9/16),.+2.0 (9/9) and steady at +1.8 (8/12, 8/19, 8/26 & 9/2). They were +1.7 (8/5), +1.6 (7/29), +1.4 RONI (week of 7/15 & 7/22), +2.0/+1.3 RONI (week of 7/8), +1.8/+1.2 (week of 7/1 and 6/24), +1.7/+1.1 (6/17), +1.5/0.9 RONI (6/10), +1.3/+0.7 (6/3), +1.0/+0.5 (5/20 & 5/27), +0.9 (4/29, 5/6 & 5/13), +0.4 the first 2 weeks and +0.5 (RONI).
Monthly ERSST RONI Data (ERSST) is +1.67 (Aug)., +1.33 July, +1.07 June +0.52 May, -0.13 April,
Seasonal ERSST 3 Month RONI is +1.36 (JJA), +0.97 (MJJ), +0.49 AMJ, -0.04 MAM, -0.44 FMA, -0.76 (JFM), -0.91 (DJF).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Jan Relative temps were -1.0 turning neutral (0.0) in April +1.0 in June.
Forecast (9/29) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward. Raw forecast suggests temp peaking at +3.50 in early Nov (down from +4.45 8/17). The Relative forecast has temps peaking at +2.95 in early Nov (down from +3.75 degs 8/17). The 3 month forecast suggest temps peaking at +2.8 in OND (17% higher than any other El Nino ever). The 3 month PDF & Spread Corrected value is +2.20 (down from 2.4 on 8/17). It looks like we are moving into some flavor of 'Super' El Nino but all projections are down from their peaks in later July.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +2.0 today (July OBS). The Dynamic average suggest temps rising to +3.5 OND. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +2.8 (NDJ). Relative temps to reach 3.35 degs NDJ. Per the average of all models, we are at minimal Strong El Nino status today and moving to Super status in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
The SOI is clearly indicating an El Nino signal.
Today (9/26) the Daily Index was -16.10, and has been almost exclusively negative since 3/25 and at times very negative (-30 or less). It dipped to -42.37 (9/19), -40.01 (7/15), -44.81 on 7/7.
The 30 day average was falling at -20.29 after previously peaking at -19.00 (9/20), -27.88 (8/1), -27.87 (7/20) and -23.61 (6/27). It rose to -13.18 (9/6) has been rising from -13.85 a month ago (due to the Inactive MJO in early Aug).
The 90 day average was falling at -20.78 and previously peaked negative at -21.53 (9/20), -21.96 (8/6), -21.92 and -22.41 (8/21) after turning negative the first time in a very long time on 5/14 at -0.07. It was -21.16 a month ago. All this is incredible regardless of the daily small fluctuations.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -1.11 Aug, -1.29 July, -1.32 June, -1.64 May, -1.28 April, March -1.44, Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.