Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 15.0 secs from 190 degrees. Water temp 80.6 (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 9.5 secs from 8 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 9.4 secs from 42 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 12.4 secs from 161 degrees. Wind southwest 2-4 kts. Water temperature 68.4 degs, 63.5 (Harvest 071), 66.2 (Topanga 103), 65.1 (Long Beach 215), 70.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 66.9 (Del Mar 153), 70.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.6 ft @ 9.6 secs from 308 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.8 ft @ 9.3 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.9 secs from 196 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.0 secs from 177 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 172 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.9 ft @ 12.3 secs from 174 degrees. Water temperature 66.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 310 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), S 12-14 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and ESE 8 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 61.3 (San Francisco 46026), 60.4 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 60.6 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (9/27) in North and Central CA surf was head high and lined up and closed out and pretty tattered from south winds. Protected breaks were up to chest high and lined up if not pretty closed out and real clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high and weakly lined and soft and clean early. In Ventura County waves were knee high on the sets and not really lined up and clean and very soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined up if not closed out and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean early. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and soft and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up with decent form at select breaks and clean early. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean and soft early but with a fair amount of underlying lump. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at waist high and warbled from modest southeast winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (9/27) Hawaii was getting sideband swell and California was getting the leading edge of swell from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region moving to the Northwestern Gulf on Tues-Thurs (9/25) producing 24-27 ft seas aimed east and southeast. Another short lived gale is to develop later Sat (9/27) in the Northern Gulf generating 20 ft seas aimed southeast. And another low pressure system is to develop falling southeast from the Northwestern Gulf Sun-Mon (9/29) with 17 ft seas targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast and then redeveloping in earnest off Oregon on Tues-Wed (10/1) with seas 25-26 ft aimed southeast. And a tropical system it to potentially redevelop while recurving northeast from off Japan Sun (9/28) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east then turning east over the North Dateline region Mon (9/29) while dissipating. And another gale is forecast developing just east of the dateline Thurs-Fri (10/3) with 22-23 ft seas aimed southeast at Hawaii. It sure seems Fall is trying to get started. No activity is immediately forecast for the South Pacific but a gale is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific on Sat (10/4) with 29 ft seas aimed northeast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (9/27) the jet was ridging hard north over the dateline up into the Bering Sea then falling south into a trough over the Eastern Gulf being fed by 150 kt winds offering some support for gale formation then tracking northeast up into British Columbia. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to build early Sun (9/28) being fed by 180 kt winds over the Northeastern Gulf then pinching off later only to be reinforced Mon (9/29) by 150 kts winds again supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (9/30) that trough is to be falling south positioned off the Pacific Northwest circulating there into Wed (10/1) still supporting gale formation before moving onshore on Thurs (10/2). On Fri (10/3) the jet is to be briefly split over most of the North Pacific but the consolidating on Sat (10/4) forming a trough just east of the dateline being fed by 110 kt winds offering low pressure development then ridging hard north over the Gulf of Alaska offering no support for gale formation. The transition to Fall is starting.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/27) swell from a gale previously over the Northwestern Gulf was starting to push into the US West Coast north of Pt Conception with sideband energy into Hawaii (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a tiny gale is briefly forecast developing in the Northern Gulf Sat AM (9/27) producing 35 kt northwest wind with seas building. In the evening northwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft over a tiny area at 53N 149W (318.6 degs NCal) and mostly shadowed south of Pt Reyes. The gael to dissipate after that. Doubtful any meaningful swell will result.

Also extratropical remnants of Neoguri are to be recurving northeast over the far Northwest Pacific (see Tropical Update).

And a gale is to be developing over the Northwestern Gulf Sun AM (9/28) with 35 kts west winds and seas building. In the evening the gale is fall southeast with winds 35 kts and seas 18 ft at 46N 159W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (9/29) northwest winds to be 30 kts well off North CA with seas fading from 17 ft at 42.5N 152W. Beyond the low is to be absorbed by a newly developing low off Oregon. No meaningful swell to result.

Possible Oregon Gale
On Mon PM (9/29) a gale is to be developing off Oregon producing northwest winds at 35+ kts and seas building. On Tues AM (9/30) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts just off North Oregon with seas 25 ft at 45.25N 134.5W aimed southeast (314 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to hold stationary with northwest winds 40 kts over a broader area with seas 28 ft at 45.5N 134.75W aimed southeast (315 degs NCal). On Wed AM (10/1) northwest winds to hold stationary at 30-35 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 44.5N 134W aimed southeast. The gale to fade from there. Raw swell likely for Oregon down into North and Central CA. Something to monitor.

Northwestern Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (9/23) a gale developed over the North Dateline region just south of the Central Aleutians producing 35+ kt west winds and seas 21 ft at 50N 175E just south of the Aleutians. In the evening northwest winds built to 40 kts mostly in the Bering Sea but with some spilling south into the Northwestern Gulf with seas 25 ft at 51.5N 173.5W aimed southeast. That system plodded east on Wed AM (9/24) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 26-27 ft at 52N 162W aimed east likely producing some degree of small swell radiating southeast. In the evening northwest winds were fading from 35 ks and seas 25 ft at 52.5N 155W aimed east-southeast. Fetch was fading out Thurs AM (9/25) from 30 kts with seas fading from 22 ft at 53N 149W aimed east. Something to monitor mainly relative to the US West Coast north of Pt Conception.

Oahu: Swell peaking on Sat (9/27) at 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat afternoon (9/27) building to 3.7 ft @ 14 secs at sunset (5.0 ft). Swell holding Sun AM (9/28) at 4.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft) fading slowly in the afternoon. Residuals on Mon AM (9/29) fading from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 308-311 degrees

Tropical Update
Typhoon Neoguri on Tues AM (9/23) was located 850 nmiles east-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 75 kts drifting slowly east-northeast. Neoguri drifted to the northeast Wed PM (9/24) with winds fading to 70 kts and seas 33 ft at 33.5N 156E aimed east. Given its slow forward motion and track to the northeast, fetch might get some traction aimed to the northeast perhaps pushing up the 292 degree great circle path to Hawaii but likely shadowed by Kauai relative to the North Shore of Oahu. On Thurs AM (9/25) the storm was easing west with winds 60 kts at tropical storm force and fading to 55 kts in the evening. Beyond starting Fri AM (9/26) Neoguri started moving east turning extratropcial with winds 55 kts and accelerating east in the evening with winds 60 kts. On Sat AM (9/27) Neoguri was rebuilding while accelerating east-northeast with winds 65 kts and seas 32 ft at 32N 158.75E aimed northeast then approaching the dateline Sun AM (9/28) with winds up to 85 kts and seas supposedly 43 ft at 37.5N 167E aimed east. Neoguri is to be approaching the dateline Sun PM (9/28) tracking northeast with winds 65 kts and seas 35 ft at 41N 172E aimed east. Neoguri is to be over the North Dateline region on Mon AM (9/29) with winds fading fast from 35 kts and seas 28 ft over a tiny area at 42.75N 177.5E aimed east and dissipating from there. Something to monitor but at this time no meaningful swell is forecast for Hawaii.

Hurricane Narda on Tues AM (9/23) was positioned 450 nmiles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 75 kts tracking west and of no interest to the US West Coast. But on Sat AM (9/27) Narda started to make a turn to the northwest with winds 80 kts 850 nmiles south-southwest of Southern CA and seas 26 ft at 18N 124.5W. In the evening Narda is to head due north in positioned 750 nmiles south of San Diego with winds 70 kts and seas 23 ft at 18.2N 125W. On Sun AM (9/28) Narda is to have winds 60 kts 700 nmiles south of San Diego and aimed directly at the Southern CA coastline with seas 22 ft at 19N 125W aimed north. . The remnants of Narda are to slowly track north Mon PM (9/29) 600 nmiles south-southwest of San Diego while dissipated with winds 35-40 kts. Some degree of small swell is possible for Southern CA if this system does as is forecast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: On Sun (9/28) sideband swell from when Narda was tracking northwest to be 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell builds some on Mon (9/29) at 3.2 ft @ 11-12 secs later (3.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Tues (9/30) from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 185 moving to 200 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (9/28) light northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and south 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a weak front is to move up to Cape Mendocino with south winds 10-15 kts there and south winds 10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Mon AM (9/29) the front is to be moving inland over Cape Mendocino with south winds 15-20 kts there and south winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and south for Central CA 5 kts early. In the afternoon a broad low pressure system is to be off Oregon with southwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and southwest 5 kts for Central CA early. Rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon pushing south to Pt Reyes in the evening.
Tues AM (9/30) a front is to be approaching Cape Mendocino with south winds 10 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA early. The front impacts North CA in the afternoon with south winds 20+ kts and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North CA early being reinforced late afternoon for Cape Mendocino reaching south to Bodega Bay in the evening.
Wed AM (10/1) south winds continue at 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA early with the low still off Oregon. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North Ca and south winds 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA early pushing south to Santa Cruz and slowly plodding south in the evening.
Thurs AM (10/2) the low is to be still off Oregon with west winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Rain fading over a thin band from San Francisco to Monterey Bay early then dissipating. .
Fri AM (10/3) weak high pressure starts to build with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA.
Sat AM (10/4) high pressure is to be be in control with northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps holding at 45 degs Sun (9/28) and 40-45 degs Mon (9/29). Temps to fall to 35-40 degs Tues-Wed (10/1). Temps rise Thurs (10/2) to 40-45 degs then fall Fri (10/3) to 30-35 degs then rising from there to 40-45 degs through Mon (10/6).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/27) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii and no meaningful swell was in the immediate water of those locations.

Over the next 72 hours a tiny gale is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific Sun PM (9/28) with 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building. On Mon AM (9/29) fetch is to track northeast with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 34 ft at 50S 131W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 40 kts while moving up to the edge of the CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 45.75S 120.75W aimed northeast. The gale dissipating after that. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours Some form of low pressure to possibly develop just east of the dateline Wed PM (10/1) with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a tiny area with seas building from 18 ft at 42N 176.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to fall southeast on Thurs AM (10/2) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 22 ft at 43.25N 172.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to continue southeast in the evening with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 40N 169W aimed southeast. Fetch fading out Fri AM (10/3). Small swell possible for Hawaii if all goes as forecast.

Beyond 72 hours the model suggest some sort of a gale is forecast developing over Central South Pacific Sat AM (10/4) producing 40-45 kts south winds and seas 30 ft at 49.5S 151.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/26) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/27) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest to moderate east anomalies holding over the dateline but with weak west anomalies slowly easing into the KWGA starting 10/5 reaching the dateline 10/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 10/13.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/26) Currently a neutral MJO was in control with neither an Inactive (dry air) or Active (wet air) MJO in play. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding through day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates essentially the same thing but with a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) on day 5 returning to neutral on day 10 and holding day 15. The 2 models are in general agreement.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/27) - The models depict the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it holding near stationary and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the MJO is to retrograde west to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/26) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has weak east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/2 then weak west anomalies start building into the KWGA from the west reaching east to 160E 10/5 and more or less holding into 10/17, then retrograding to the west edge of the KWGA on 10/20 holding through the end of the model run on 10/24. No contours are indicated. A very weak MJO continues.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/27) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak MJO was indicated and of no significance. The model has weak east anomalies filling the KWGA 9/28-10/3 then collapsing with weak west anomalies setting up filling the KWGA to the dateline 10/4 and beyond. No change in the winds pattern is forecast beyond as a weak Inactive Phase is depicted 10/28-11/22. West anomalies build starting 11/17 tat modest strength through the end of the model run on 12/25 with the Active Phase of the MJO taking over during that window. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through the end of the model run. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are stationary now and are to hold unchanged through Fall and early Winter with the dividing line somewhere around 160E and west anomalies filling the western 50% of the KWGA and east anomalies the eastern 50%, though west anomalies possibly building east in Nov. This forecast has held unchanged for weeks now.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (9/27) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 174E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173W. The 24 degree isotherm has steady at 120W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -4 degrees at 140W were at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/20 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline east of 160W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/20) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -15 cms at 115W. Heights were weakly above normal from 160E and points west of there. The cool pool is building over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/20) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 148W to 100W. Warm anomalies were west of 172W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/26) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 175E and fading in energy from Ecuador to 110W and otherwise consistent in density across it's width west of there. This looks like a clearly developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/26): Temps were cooling from the Galapagos to 160W as they have been for days now.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/27) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at -0.478 after rising to -0.109 (9/23) and have rising some since 9/14. Temps have been at roughly -0.8 there since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/27) Today's temps were steadily falling at -1.078. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising some at -0.4 as of 9/17. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.32 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.46 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug and -0.5 in Sept.
Forecast (9/23) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.70 mid-Oct, -0.85 Nov, rising -0.75 mid-Dec and technically neutral mid-Jan at -0.5 degs then neutral (0.0) in Mar 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs then following the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/27) the Daily Index was positive at 2.85 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling at +1.87 and has been generally steady from +2.52 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +3.33 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.07 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -3.23 after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.