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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, September 27, 2021 4:39 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.3 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/27 thru Sun 10/3

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Swell for NCal
More Possibly to Follow - Small Gale Forecast for SPac

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, September 27, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) : Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 189 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.7 (Barbers Pt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 10.2 secs from 332 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 266 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 66.4 degs, 66.0 (Topanga 103), 61.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 65.5 (Del Mar 153), 69.4 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 291 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 221 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.8 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 248 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 13.0 secs from 276 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was west at 8-10 kts. Water temp 59.9 (Pt Reyes 029), 59.2 (46026), 60.6 degs (SF Bar 142), and 58.3 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (9/27) North and Central CA had waves at 1 ft overhead and clean but with pretty heavy fog early. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up when they came and clean with decent form. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with light fog and inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder to near head high and lined up and clean and peeling. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high with bigger sets and lined up and and clean but with some warble intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some stray waist high sets and weak and uneven but fairly clean early. The South Shore was getting tiny swell with waves waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting thigh high east windswell and nearly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (9/27) in California swell was fading originating from another gale that developed over the North Dateline region on Tues (9/21) producing 29 ft seas aimed east then tracked into the Northwestern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (9/23) with seas fading from 24 ft aimed east. And another gale developed in the Eastern Gulf on Sun-Mon (9/27) producing 24-27 ft seas aimed southeast. Another is forecast for the Northern Gulf on Sat (10/2) producing 33 ft seas aimed east. And maybe a small extratropical system is forecast for the North Dateline region on Mon (10/4). The focus has shifted clearly to the north. That said, a gale is forecast under New Zealand Sat-Sun (10/3) with 33 ft seas aimed well northeast. No shortage of potential

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (9/27) the jet was tracking east across the North Pacific on the 45N latitude line with winds building to 140 kts over the Northwestern Gulf then falling into a solid trough off the Pacific Northwest being fed by a healthy flow of 130-140 kts winds offering good support for gale development. That trough is to move inland over the Oregon-CA border in the evening. Over the next 72 hours winds are to hold at 140 kts flowing over the Gulf of Alaska into Tues (9/28) with a weak trough trying to build in the Central Gulf on Wed (9/29) but likely not doing much to support gale development given weak wind energy flowing into it. And that trough is to be inland over British Columbia later Thurs (9/30). Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (10/2) a big ridge is forecast over the Northwest Pacific pushing well up into the Bering Sea then falling hard south into the Northern Gulf forming a new trough there being fed by 140 kt winds with that trough slowly plodding east and a little pinched into Mon (10/4) still in the Northern Gulf. Limited odds for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (9/27) swell was fading in North CA having been generated from a gale previously over the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska (see Another Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be propagating southeast from another gale that developed in the Northeastern Gulf (see Northeastern Gulf Gale below).

 

Another Northwestern Gulf Gale
Another gale started developing over the dateline Tues PM (9/21) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area aimed east with seas building to 29 ft at 44N 177.75W aimed east. The gale moved to the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (9/22) with 35 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 44N 171.75W aimed east. Fetch to fade to 30 kts in the evening with 22 ft seas at 43.75N 164.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (9/23) the gale is to be almost gone with residual 25 kt west winds in the Northern Gulf and seas 19 ft at 46N 158.75W aimed east. Something to monitor. Possible more meaningful swell for Hawaii and modest swell for the US West Coast.

North CA: Swell fading Mon (9/27) from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

 

Northeastern Gulf Gale
Another gale developed Sat evening (925) over the Northern Gulf with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 48N 152W aimed southeast. Fetch was building in coverage Sun AM (9/26) from the northwest at 40 kts with 27 ft seas at 47N 144.5W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading slightly in the evening from 40 kts from the northwest and just off the Pacific Northwest with seas 27 ft at 47N 138W aimed southeast. Fetch was holding position off British Columbia Mon AM (9/27) at 35 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 47.5N 137W aimed southeast and barely in the NCal swell window (317 degrees). A rapid fade is to follow as the gale moves inland over BC and the Pacific Northwest. Swell has been generated and is pushing southeast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (9/28) building late morning to 8.0 ft @ 14 secs (11.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. A few bigger sets. Windswell adding into the mix late AM. Swell fading on Wed AM (9/29) from 5.5 ft @ 12 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 307-316 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Typhoon Mindulle is 1,800 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan on Mon AM (10/27) with winds 95 kts tracking north-northwest. Mindulle is to track north peaking on Tues PM (9/28) with winds 110 kts, then make a turn to the northeast and accelerating on Thurs (9/30) eventually reaching the North Dateline region on Mon (10/4) but mainly in the Bering Sea. The GFS model suggests a fall to the southeast after that possibly exposing some remaining fetch to open waters of the North Pacific. Low odds of this occurring at this early date.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Tues (9/28) northwest winds are to be 10 kts early for Cape Mendocino but 20-25 kts from Monterey down to Pt Conception early. And in the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts from Pt Arena southward.
  • Wed (9/29) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts solid for all of North and Central CA early fading to 20 kts in the afternoon.
  • Thurs (9/30) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts early for all of North and Central CA and 20 kts off the coast fading fast and northwest 10 kts in the afternoon for Central CA and 15-20 kts for North CA mainly over Cape Mendocino.
  • Fri (10/1) northwest winds at 25 kts and pressure gradient to be in control over North CA early and northwest winds 10 kts for Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino but light northwest south of Pt Arena.
  • Sat (10/2) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but north 10 kts south of there early and weakening to 5-10 kts in the afternoon everywhere.
  • Sun (10/3) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA all day.
  • Mon (10/4) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA holding all day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000 ft today (9/27) falling to 8,500 ft early on 9/28 building back to 12,500 ft on 9/29 and holding. Then the freezing level falls on 10/6 down to 10,000 ft or less. Summer is over for the Sierra.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (9/27) no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems were forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's signs that another gale is to try and develop in the Northern Gulf on Fri AM (10/1) with 40 kt northwest winds building and seas developing from 20 ft at 46N 158W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 40 kts in the Northern Gulf with with 24 ft seas at 50N 154W aimed east over a small area. On Sat AM (10/2) west winds to be 40 kts solid over a small area tucked into the Northern Gulf with seas 30 ft at 55N 146W aimed east. The gale is to move into Alaska from there. Low odds of swell resulting.

Possible another gale is to develop over the North Dateline region on Tues (10/5) developing from the extratropical remnants of what was Typhoon Mindulle, currently 1800 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan and forecast to track hard north-northeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Fri PM (10/1) producing a broad area of 35-45 kt southwest winds with seas building to 30 ft at 55S 178E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/2) a solid fetch of 40 kts southwest winds is forecast lifting northeast with seas 32 ft over a solid area at 53S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds to continue with seas 34 ft at 49.75S 167.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/3) from 35 kts with seas 31 ft at 47.5S 158.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Steadily Redeveloping
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with no Kelvin Wave induced warm water present. The forecast has improved some though suggesting weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in October and filling the KWGA after that. A high pressure bias is to control the dateline by early Fall but recent runs of the model suggest that might be temporary, with the high pressure bias out of the KWGA by early Dec. It seems likely blocking high pressure is to hold over the dateline through late Fall, but then the forecast is undefined, but possibly improving as winter takes root.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/27) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA and strong over the dateline and reaching east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies slowly fading to moderate strength over the next week and moving out of Western KWGA but with east anomalies still filling the bulk of the equatorial Pacific Basin from the dateline eastward through the end of the model run on 10/4. Weak west anomalies are forecast trying to move into the far West KWGA at the end of the model run. There's no clear sign of the Active Phase of the MJO yet . This has been an unbelievably strong and long lasting Easterly Wind Burst that started 9/8 and has no end in sight.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/26) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive pattern rebuilding on day 5 of the model run at moderate strength then building to strong strength and holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the weak Active Phase slowly and steadily gaining ground and strength on days 5-10 of the model run and on day 15 at moderate strength filling the KWGA. The 2 models are projecting opposite outcomes. Maybe the dynamic model is closer to reality now.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast retrograding west over the Central Indian Ocean at weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase pushing slowly east to the East Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run at weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/26) A weak Active Phase (wet air) was indicated pushing into the West Pacific today. The Active Phase (wet air) is to track east through the KWGA on 10/6 then continuing east reaching Central America on 10/16. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving east over the KWGA on 10/21 moving to the East Pacific on 11/5 at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/26) This model depicts no MJO signal over the KWGA today but with moderate east anomalies still in control of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is south of California with storing east anomalies there. The forecast indicates east anomalies weakly dissipating with some west anomalies in the KWGA for a few days around 10/3 as the Active Phase passes through the area, but east of the KWGA by 10/10 with east anomalies again taking over the KWGA and is anything building to strong status by 10/20 holding through the end of the model run on 10/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/27 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today a weak Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east into the KWGA with modest east anomalies from the previous Inactive Phase of the MJO still filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to slowly push east and filling the KWGA on 10/8 but with weak east anomalies still mostly filling the KWGA till about 10/29, as the Active Phase dissipates from the KWGA. A weak MJO signal is to prevail after that with weak west anomalies slowly making eastward progress over the KWGA filling to from 11/6 onward with no change forecast through the end of the model run on 12/25. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) has developed on the dateline and is to hold while building east to 120W on 12/16 then holding. A second contour is forecast 10/18-12/5. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/8 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 130E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 12/10 and filling 50% of it at the end of the model run. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has taken over the KWGA is to slowly get shoved east and erode as the Active Phase and west anomalies and the low pressure bias try to take root in the KWGA by mid Nov. This suggests redevelopment of La Nina for now but possibly fading some come late Fall and early Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 175W to 178W. The 24 deg isotherm is stable at 127W. Warm water has receded west and has more or less stabilized there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were steady in coverage in the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W. All the sensors are down between 155W-130W so this analysis is suspect. Under that mostly cool anomalies were in control at up to -3 degs C at 155W 150 meters down steadily rising while moving east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/20 indicates no warm water east of the dateline with cool water east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending into Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down at 160W and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/20) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between the Galapagos to 175E and with a peak at -20 cms near 145W with -15 cms anomalies between 130W-150W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/26) The latest images depict a thin steady stream of cool water on the equator from Peru tracking up the coast then turning west at Ecuador and building out to 160W. Markedly cooler water was in waves between the Galapagos to the dateline. Cooling was building along Chile and Peru too. A homogenous area of warm water was holding along Central America up to Southern Baja with one small hot pool along the coast of Ecuador. Overall this seems to indicate the return of cooling water temps and La Nina. The question is - For how long?
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/26): Building cool waters were off Ecuador to the Galapagos then weaker west to 150W. Cool temps are the norm.
Hi-res Overview: (9/26) A thin stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to the Golden Gate. A clear cool outflow remains in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. It is stable but weak. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence on the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/27) Today's temps were toggling steady at -0.518 after falling to -0.927 on 9/2 beating the previous peak low reading of -0.746 on 8/15. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been towards falling back into negative territory.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/27) Today temps were in a freefall down to -0.499 after rebounding from a previous low of -0.370 on 8/22, the bottom of a downward trend that held for the previous 7 weeks. Before that temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/27) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs in Aug. The forecast indicates temps to make a dramatic fall starting today down to -1.70 later in November and holding into early Jan 2022, then pushing up to +0.00 degs in June 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling to -1.40 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.41 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.57 degrees in Oct holding into Nov, then rising to -0.33 degs in Jan and neutral in March 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (9/27): The daily index was rising to 24.25 today, after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15 and +27.75 on 9/13. The 30 day average was falling to 8.57 after rising to +10.70 on 10/21. Before that is fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to9.36 after peaking on 9/21 at 9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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