Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 14.8 secs from 197 degrees. Water temp 80.2 (Barbers Pt), 80.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): This buoy is back online! Seas were 6.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 7.9 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 8.0 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.8 secs from 134 degrees. Wind northwest 4-8 kts. Water temperature 67.8 degs, 63.3 (Harvest 071), 70.2 (Topanga 103), 67.5 (Long Beach 215), 69.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 66.7 (Del Mar 153), 70.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 216 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.5 ft @ 9.3 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 187 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 189 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 197 degrees. Water temperature 66.4 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): This buoy is back online! Seas were 4.9 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 12.3 secs from 202 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 14-16 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W 14 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 61.7 (San Francisco 46026), 61.9 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 60.3 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/21) in North and Central CA surf was waist high and warbled if not blown out and mushed and weakly lined up early. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and sift and barely breaking and warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets and somewhat lined and soft and reasonably clean early. In Ventura County waves were near flat with sets to thigh high and mushed and slightly warbled and not real rideable. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high breaking just off the beach and fairly clean but somewhat closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to waist high or so and barely lined up with decent form but mushed and very soft but clean early. North San Diego had sets to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and clean but very soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and clean early. The East Shore was getting northeasterly windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/21) Hawaii was getting minimal background southern hemi swell. California was getting no swell of interest other than local northwest windswell at exposed breaks. Up north a gale is forecast for the Northwestern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (9/25) producing 26 ft seas aimed east and southeast. And another cutoff low is forecast north of Hawaii on Sun (9/29) producing 27 ft seas aimed south. Nothing obvious is forecast from the southern hemi and it is likely done for the season.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (9/21) the jet was tracking east on the 45N latitude line across the width of the North Pacific with winds building to 150 kts over the dateline feeding development of a small gentle trough there offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to build Mon (9/22) falling south over the Northern Gulf offering some support for gale development there before pinching off later Tues (9/23) offering no support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (9/25) a new trough is forecast over the Northern Gulf being fed by 140 kts winds falling south while approaching Hawaii building into Fri (9/26) then pinching off. But the pinched/cutoff trough is to reaching a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii on Sat (9/27) offering some support for low pressure development there before totally cutting off from the main jetstream flow on Sun (9/28) no longer supporting gale formation. The transition to Fall is starting.

Surface Analysis
On Thurs (9/18) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or CA and no swell was in waters of the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (9/23) a gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline region just south of the Central Aleutians producing 35 kts west winds and seas 24 ft at 51N 179.5W just south of the Aleutians mid-day before lifting north into the Bering Sea. Remnants of that system are to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf later Wed (9/24) producing 35+ kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 52N 160W aimed east likely producing some degree of small swell radiating southeast. The gale is to fade some on Thurs AM (9/25) producing northwest winds at 35+ kts and seas 25 ft at 51N 163.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 25 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 49N 155W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Tropical Update
Typhoon Ragasa on Sun AM (9/21) was 180 nmiles east of the north most Philippines with winds 145 kts tracking west. The forecast has it continuing on that heading bypassing the Philippines to the north and impacting south China and Vietnam on 9/24. No recurvature to the northeast and no swell production for our forecast area is forecast.

Typhoon Neoguri on Sun AM (9/21) was located 750 nmiles southeast of Central Japan with winds 120 kts tracking slowly north-northwest. Neoguri is to drift to the north and then briefly northeast into Mon PM (9/22) with winds fading to 90 kts and seas in the upper 30 ft range. Given its slow forward motion and track to the northeast, fetch might get some traction aimed to the northeast perhaps pushing up the 292 degree great circle path to Hawaii but likely shadowed by Kauai relative to the North Shore of Oahu. Something to monitor.

And the model hints at some sort of tropical system developing well west-southwest of Baja on Fri-Sat (9/27) turning to the northwest. But it is to be a long ways from Southern CA and not aimed well at that target. Odds of it even developing are low at this early date.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (9/22) northwest winds to be building to 20 kts along the North CA coast early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts mostly over Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts south of there and off all of Central CA. Minimal background northwest windswell possible.
Tues AM (9/23) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10 kts south of there and over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and 5 kts or less for Central CA. Minimal background northwest windswell fading fast. Monsoon rain for Southern CA in the afternoon and evening.
Wed AM (9/24) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell forecast. Monsoon rain for southern CA fading through the morning and early afternoon.
Thurs AM (9/25) northwest winds to be 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Perhaps some small windswell is to be developing later.
Fri AM (9/26) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for most of North CA and 5-10 kts for Bodega Bay southward and over all of Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Minimal northwest windswell forecast.
Sat AM (9/27) northwest winds to be 20 kts for most of North CA and 5-10 kts for Bodega Bay southward and over all of Central CA. Northwest winds fading to 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and 10 kts south of there. Minimal northwest windswell possible.
Sun AM (9/28) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. Minimal raw windswell possible.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps to be 45-50 degs Sun-Mon (9/23) rising to 50-55 degs Tues-Wed (9/24). Temps to fall Thurs (9/24) to 45-50 degs through Sat 99/27) then holding beyond at 50-55 degrees through Tues (9/30).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/21) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii and no meaningful swell was in the immediate water of those locations.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat PM (9/27) a cutoff gale is forecast developing 900 nmiles north of the Hawaiian Islands producing 45-50 kts north winds and seas building. On Sun AM (9/28) north winds to be fading from 40 kts over a small area with seas 27-28 ft at 33.5N 155W aimed south targeting the Islands well. Fetch fading after that. Something to monitor.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/19) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/21) Today moderate east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA but with weak west anomalies pushing to 150E or half way across the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to retrograde west and gone from the KWGA on 9/27 with moderate east anomalies holding and then filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/7. Sure looks like La Nina.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/20) Currently a neutral MJO was in control with neither an Inactive (dry air) or Active (wet air) MJO in play. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding until day 15 of the model run when it turns weakly Inactive. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but starting on day 10. The 2 models are in general agreement.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/21) - The models depict the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over East Pacific. The statistic model has it tracking east over the Indian Ocean and exceedingly weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the MJO pushing east to the Indian Ocean 15 days out and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/20) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the West KWGA to 155E driven by an Equatorial Rossby Wave with east anomalies east of there. The forecast has the Rossby Wave and west anomalies holding into 9/25 then collapsing to the west but with neutral anomalies holding easing to east to 160E into 10/15. After that Inactive contours are forecast developing in the far West KWGA with east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/18.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies filling the west KWGA (to 150E) with east anomalies east of there. This wind pattern is to more or less hold into 10/15 then turning neutral into 10/18 with a weak Active Phase over the KWGA 9/23-10/10. An Inactive Phase is to develop 10/9-11/6 with weak to modest east anomalies in control. After that the Active Phase is to follow 10/31-12/2 with west anomalies filling the KWGA if not reaching east to 120W. A weak inactive MJO is to follow through the end of the model run on 12/19 with neutral to weak west anomalies in control of the entire Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through the end of the model run. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are stationary now and are to hold through Fall and early Winter with the dividing line somewhere around 160E and west anomalies filling the western 50% of the KWGA and east anomalies the eastern 50%, though west anomalies possibly building east in Nov. This forecast has held unchanged for weeks now.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (9/21) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 172W to 175W. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador and is stable at 120W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 172E. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees were at depth at the thermocline level across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/10 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline from 160W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/15) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from the dateline eastward to Ecuador and up to -15 cms at 115W. Heights were weakly above normal from 160E and points west of there. The cool pool is building over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/15) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 150W to 85W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/20) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 170E and consistent in density across it's width. This looks like a clearly developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/20): Temps were warming over the entire area from the Galapagos to 130W with no significant cool pockets remaining.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/21) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising to -0.170 and have rising some since 9/14. Temps have been at roughly -0.8 there since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/21) Today's temps were steady at -0.815. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.5 on Sept 10. Previously temps were -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.32 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.46 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug and -0.5 in Sept.
Forecast (9/21) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.70 mid-Oct, -0.80 Nov, rising -0.70 mid-Dec and back to neutral (0.0) in Mar 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs then following the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/21) the Daily Index was positive at 0.12 but has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was steady at +5.24 and has been generally rising from +0.60 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +3.39 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +2.88 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -3.23 after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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