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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2020 5:37 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/14 thru Sun 9/20

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Tracking NE
Gales Possible Both North and South Beyond

On Thursday, September 17, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 194 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 8.5 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 9.4 secs from 210 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 70.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.3 ft @ 11.5 secs from 182 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 10.5 secs from 198degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.1 ft @ 10.3 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.9 ft @ 10.1 secs from 195 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 9.5 secs from 259 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temp 56.5 degs (013), 59.7 degs (SF Bar) and 56.5 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/17) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at waist high on the sets and clean and lined up but fogged in early. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and clean mostly breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was rarely thigh high or so and clean and weak. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and clean but weak and foggy. Central Orange County had set waves a chest to head high coming from the south and clean but weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest to head high and clean but soft with intermixed lump. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and clean and lined up with clear skies. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was weak with set waves at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and soft. The East Shore was flat and textured and lumped with modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (9/17) no meaningful locally generated windswell was occurring in North or Central CA or along the East Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. In California small tropical windswell was hitting exposed Southern CA breaks. Of more interest is southern hemi swell radiating northeast having been generated by a gale that tracked under New Zealand Fri-Sat (9/12) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east. After that a bit of a break is forecast until another system develops under New Zealand on Sun (9/20) tracking east through the deep Central and Southeast Pacific early next week with seas in the 40 ft range. Up north theoretically a gale is forecast forming in the far northwestern Gulf on Mon-Wed (9/23) with up to 25 ft seas aimed mainly east and southeast. So there's hope both north and south.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/17) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical system are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (9/17) low pressure was off Cape Mendocino and Southern Oregon eliminating high pressure and potential for a gradient and windswell to develop. West to northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA and up to 15 kts later towards Pt Conception. On Fri (9/18) the low is to fade while moving over Cape Mendocino. West to southwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts over North CA all day and 10-15 kts from the northwest for Central CA. Light rain possible through the day for Cape Mendocino. On Sat (9/19) northwest winds and high pressure are to return with northwest winds 10 kts over North CA early building to 10-15 kts later and and 15-20 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception early building everywhere south of Pt Reyes later. On Sun (9/20) small raw northwest windswell is possible with north winds 15-20 kts for all of North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA mainly early and fading to 10 kts for Central CA later. Mon (9/21) fetch is to be fading with northwest winds 15 kts limited to Pt Arena area early and northwest winds 10 kts elsewhere and holding all day. No windswell production is forecast. Tues (9/22) northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA and 15 kts in pockets in the afternoon mainly for Central CA. Low pressure is to be filling the Gulf of Alaska. No windswell production is forecast. Wed (9/23) northwest winds to be 10 kts or less except 15 kts near Morro Bay early building to 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA in the afternoon. On Thurs (9/24) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Central CA early and 10 kts for North CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 12,500 ft at most times over the next 10 days falling to 11,000 on 9/18 and 9/26. Upper level temps are forecast starting to cool.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

On Thursday (9/17) the southern branch of the jet was pushing northeast under New Zealand at 150 kts forming a trough and starting to get exposure in the Southwest Pacific offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet was falling southeast pushing over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push northeast making to a point just southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (9/18) still offering support for gale development there then collapsing in the evening. A ridge is to start building under New Zealand on Sat (9/19) with 170 kt winds pushing east-southeast initially almost reaching down to the Ross Ice Shelf then sweeping east on Sun (9/20) while lifting north slightly to 58S filling the Southwest and South Central Pacific perhaps starting to open a window for gale development while winds build to 180 kts. Beyond 72 hours that pocket of wind energy is to continue sweeping east aligned west to east on the 57S latitude line into late Mon (9/21) continuing to provide some support for gale development focused on the South Central Pacific then weakening some into early Wed (9/23) moving into the Southeast Pacific, then fading. In all a nice little run of potential for gale development. But by Thurs (9/24) the jet is to fall back south aligned west to east on the 65S latitude line and weak offering no support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/17) swell from another New Zealand gale is tracking northeast towards Hawaii and California (see Stronger New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.


Stronger New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building southwest of New Zealand on Fri PM (9/11) producing 45-50 kt west winds over a decent sized area with seas to 43 ft at 56.5S 158E.5 aimed east (218 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and shadowed by NZ for HI). On Sat AM (9/12) west-southwest winds were pushing east over a decent sized area at 40-45 kts with seas 44 ft at 57.5S 169E aimed east (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 212 degs NCal and unshadowed, 197 degs HI). In the evening fetch was aimed better northeast at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 39 ft at 58S 180W aimed east-northeast (209 degs SCal and still shadowed, 208 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 192 degs HI). On Sun AM (9/13) fetch was fading from 30 kts over broad area aimed northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 57S 170W aimed northeast (206 degs SCal and unshadowed, 205 degs NCal and still shadowed, 186 degs HI). The gale was gone after that. Some small swell is possible for California with tiny sideband swell for Hawaii.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (9/18) building to 1.0 ft @ 20-21 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (9/19) at 1.2 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (9/20) fading from 1.1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (9/20) building to 1.3 ft @ 20-21 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (9/21) to 1.7 ft @ 19 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (9/22) at 1.8 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (9/23) from 1.7 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell dropping on Thurs (6/24) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (9/20) building to 1.2 ft @ 20-21 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (9/21) to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (9/22) at 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (9/23) from 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell dropping on Thurs (6/24) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a low pressure system is forecast traversing the far North Pacific tracking just south of the Aleutian Islands starting Sat (9/19) producing a small area of up to 28 ft seas but not getting interesting till Mon AM (9/21) when the low is to fall southeast some over the Central Aleutians producing 35 kt northwest winds with seas building to 22 ft at 51N 170W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to increase in coverage at 35 kts with seas building to 24 ft at 49N 165.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (9/22) the gale is to fall southeast over the Central Gulf of Alaska producing 35 kt northwest winds with seas 25 ft at 44.5N 162.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade some in the evening while tracking east with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 24 ft at 42N 156W aimed southeast. More of the same is forecast Wed AM (9/23) with northwest winds 30 kts over the Northern Gulf and seas fading from 21 ft over a broad area at 42N 152W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 44.5N 151W aimed southeast. This forecast seems a bit optimistic but it's worth monitoring.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Sat PM (9/19) producing a 40-45 kt southwest winds resulting in seas at 33 ft aimed east at 59S 164E tracking east. On Sun AM (9/20) southwest winds to build to 45 kts over a solid area with seas building to 40 ft at 58.5S 177W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a broad area aimed east-northeast with seas 41 ft at 57.5S 163W aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (9/21) 40 kt southwest winds are to be covering a large area with seas 40 ft at 58.5S 153.3 W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to start fading in the evening with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 38 ft at 58.5S 139W aimed east. A rapid fade is to follow. Something to monitor.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


Cold Water and La Nina Controls Equatorial Pacific

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.

And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/16) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial fading to neutral over the Central Pacific and then building to strong easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/17) strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through 9/20 and also building at strong status over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific into Ecuador. After that east anomalies are to start fading in KWGA but still at moderate plus status extending over the rest of the equatorial Pacific east to Ecuador through the end of the model run on 9/24. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to continue that way if not weakening more for at least the next week.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/16) A weak Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to build over the KWGA to moderate status on day 5 and building in coverage more holding on days 10 and 15. The dynamic model suggests the active Phase is to only build to modest status and only weakly filling the KWGA on days 5-10, then fading to neutral on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/17) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak to modest over the West Maritime Continent today and is to weakly track east into the far West Pacific while steadily collapsing to near nothing at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but maybe the Active Phase a little stronger though still at weak status on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/16) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO was filling the Central and East equatorial Pacific today. The forecast suggest the Inactive Phase is to track east and push into Central America by 10/1. A moderate Active pattern is to traverse the Pacific 9/24-10/21 having some limited benefit to storm production. A new moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building over the Maritime Continent 10/11 and filling the KWGA 10/19 through the end of the model run on 10/26.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/16) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal today but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates no MJO is forecast for the future but with moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/14 but building to near strong status towards the end of that run. A small patch of westerly anomalies are forecast in the East KWGA 9/20-9/24. Overall a long run of easterly anomalies are forecast in the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/17 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts the Inactive MJO was all but gone over the KWGA today and is to track east and out of the KWGA on 9/19 producing moderate east anomalies firmly controlling the KWGA and the equatorial Pacific. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is forecast to follow trying to organize in the west today pushing east but fading 10/1 with east anomalies prevailing. A weak Inactive bout is to occur 10/1-10/16 with east anomalies holding in the KWGA at moderate strength. The Active Phase is to return 10/11 coherently traversing the KWGA through 11/20 producing modest west anomalies filling the KWGA with modest east anomalies holding east of the dateline. A fairly strong Inactive Phase is to follow 11/7 tracking east through the end of the model run on 12/16 with moderate west anomalies holding in the KWGA with east anomalies gone from the KWGA over the equatorial Pacific. This provides some hope. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today reaching east to a point south of California and is to hold in coverage through the end of the model run. A second contour set up on 9/14 on the dateline and is to hold through the end of the model run. The western edge of the high pressure bias is to be slowly moving east through the period positioned on the dateline at the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. But its core is to show no signs of moving east. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year are migrating east through the West Pacific today and should continue tracking east then stabilizing setting up over the East Pacific late Sept and holding until late October, then fading slowly. The trend is turning towards La Nina. The good news is that at least at this early date, this might end up being a short lived event.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 168E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 172W today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady and stationary in the West Pacific reaching east to only 170W but no further. There was a large pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/10 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 160W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C but with cool anomalies even west to there to 170E. No warm anomalies were below the surface or at the surface east of the dateline. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/10) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 160W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were weak but still present along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador at -5 cms and then reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except west of the dateline.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/16) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Markedly cold anomalies were imbedded within that area between the Galapagos to 135W. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/16): A weak cooling trend was positioned from just west of Ecuador over the Galapagos and west to 145W, but weaker than days past. Multiple pockets of warming were interspersed from Ecuador to 140W suggesting the current cooling burst is starting to weaken.
Hi-res Overview: (9/16) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/17) Today's temps were steady at -1.731 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/17) Temps were stable today at -0.695 after reaching a new low of -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/24 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/17) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range early this year through March, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilizing near neutral into late June. They began falling again in July down to -0.75 mid-Aug. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -1.65 degs in late Oct holding in Nov then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to +0.05 degs in May. We think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific, but maybe not too much.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.52 degs today, and are to fall in early Nov to -0.60 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing modest La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (9/17): The daily index was positive today at 17.89. The 30 day average was rising to +10.24. The 90 day average was rising to 5.39, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control and trending towards La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (9/7):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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