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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, August 24, 2021 3:56 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.7 - California & 1.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/23 thru Sun 8/29

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Windswell Is All
Hope for South Pacific Longterm

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, August 24, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pnt) : Seas were 4.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.8 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.9 (Barbers Pnt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 7.9 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 186 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 8 kts. Water temperature 70.3 degs, 65.6 (Topanga 103), 63.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.2 (Del Mar 153), 66.9 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 8.0 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.3 secs from 213 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.3 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 17.0 secs from 217 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.0 secs from 203 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 6-12 kts. Water temp 60.6 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.3 (46026), 61.9 degs (SF Bar 142), and 61.3 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/24) North and Central CA had waves at maybe thigh high and mushed and junky with south wind lump intermixed. Protected breaks had some thigh to waist high sets and soft and weakly lined up and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but weak and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and clean and weak. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high or so and somewhat lined up and clean but weak and wonky. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe chest high and lined up and clean and peeling but soft. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high or so and lined up and real clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was still getting some swell with waves waist high or so and lined up and but slightly warbled from sideshore wind. The East Shore was getting fading east windswell with waves chest high and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/24) Hawaii was getting some residual windswell from Tropical System Linda. California was getting dribbles of swell from the gale that developed Tues-Wed (8/11) producing up to 39 ft seas over the South Central Pacific. But currently the South Pacific is quiet with no swell producing weather systems having occurred or occurring. A gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs-Fri (8/27) producing 29 ft seas aimed east then dissipating. Maybe some small swell to result for HI and CA. After that maybe another gale is to form in the Central South Pacific on Mon (8/30) with a small area of 34 ft seas aimed well northeast. But until those potential gales form and the resulting swell radiates northeast, no swell is expected. Nothing is forecast in the NPac either. It's either windswell or wait for Fall to start.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/24) no swell was tracking towards or hitting California or Hawaii originating form the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored. But the GFS model is suggesting a tropical system developing just southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico on Sun (8/29) tracking north-northwest while building and in the Southern CA swell window by Mon AM (8/30). Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (8/25) northwest winds are to be 15 kts for North CA and 5-10 ks for Central CA early building to 15-20 kts for North CA in the afternoon isolated near Pt Arena and 15 kts for Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
  • Thurs (8/26) northwest winds are to be 20 kts over all of North and Central CA early building to 25 kts over North CA later. Northwest windswell building some.
  • Fri (8/27) northwest fetch is to build over North CA early at 25-30 kts and 15-20 kt northwest winds nearshore for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-35 kts for North CA and 10 kts nearshore for Central Ca and 20+ kts off the coast. Windswell building.
  • Sat (8/28) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for North CA early and a weak eddy flow (south winds developing south of the Golden Gate and holding all day. Windswell building.
  • Sun (8/29) northwest winds to be 25 kts solid for the water just off Cape Mendocino with a solid eddy flow (south winds) from just south of Cape Mendocino to Pt Conception. Windswell fading.
  • Mon (8/30) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for the water off Cape Mendocino with a weak eddy flow (south winds) from just south of Cape Mendocino to Pt Conception. Windswell fading if not almost gone.
  • Tues (8/31) more of the same is forecast early with north winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell trying to rebuild some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 13,000 ft holding through 8/25 then building back to 14,000 ft+ and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (8/24) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south under New Zealand pushing down to 70S and over Antarctic Ice continuing that position over the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development over ice free waters. Over the next 72 hours no significant change is forecast until Thurs (8/26) when the jet is to get more energetic under New Zealand being fed by 120 kt winds starting to lift northeast forming a trough southeast of New Zealand over ice free waters offering some support for gale development with that trough slowly building east into Fri (8/27). Beyond 72 hours the trough is to push east over the Central South Pacific on Sat (8/28) offering continued support for gale development there and into the Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/29). Also on Sun (8/29) an additional push of northward wind energy is to develop over the Central South Pacific forming a new trough pushing east with additional northward bound wind energy building over the Southeast Pacific on Tues (8/31) forming a better defined trough with winds at 140 kts offering continued support for gale development. But a strong ridge is to be building over the West Pacific pushing well down into Antarctica on Tues (8/31) down to 72S actively suppressing gale development. So a bit of a better pattern is forecast for a small window.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/24) no swell was hitting and no swell was in the water tracking northeast towards HI or CA.

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs AM (8/26) a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand producing a decent sized area of 35-40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 55S 179.75W aimed northeast. In the evening west-southwest winds to hold at 35-40 kts with seas 29-30 ft over a larger area at 57.25S 168.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (8/27) a secondary fetch is to develop south of the core with winds 35-40 kts aimed northeast with seas 27 ft at 54S 162.5W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to creep east and hold in the evening with seas 27 ft at 55S 154.25W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (8/29) a gale is forecast developing well southeast of New Zealand producing a decent sized area of 35-40 kt south winds and seas building to 26 ft at 57S 156W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/30) the gale is to lift northeast with winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 30 ft at 52.5S 151W aimed northeast. In the evening the gael is to continue northeast with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 50S 141W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/31) the gale is to be fading while tracking fast northeast with winds 35+ kts and seas 29 ft at 49S 133W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Slowly Rebuilding
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading and present only just off Ecuador. The forecast has improved some though suggesting only a short lived high pressure bias controlling the dateline in early Fall then turning neutral. Still it seems blocking high pressure is to hold over the Gulf of Alaska through early Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were westerly over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/24) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at moderate strength filling the KWGA for the next week through the end of the model run on 8/31 if not building some the last day or two of the model run. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/23) A near neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects an Inactive pattern rebuilding on day 5 of the model reaching moderate strength on day 10 and nearly strong on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the Inactive Phase building far weaker to weak strength on day 5 of the model run then holding through day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/24) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Central Indian Ocean and forecast tracking east to the Central Maritime Continent still at very weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase just noodling around in the Central Indian Ocean for the next 15 days maybe reaching the East Indian Ocean at weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/23) A strong Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over Central America today with weak dry remnants lingering over the whole Pacific. Those remnants to push east while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast developing over the KWGA on 9/2 tracking east and weakly filling the equatorial Pacific on 9/12 then moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 10/2 while a new weak Inactive Phase (dry air) starts building over the Eastern Maritime Continent.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/23) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak east anomalies in control of the KWGA. The forecast indicates a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA 8/24-9/1. After that east anomalies are to start filling the KWGA focused over the dateline at modest strength 9/4 continuing through the end of the model run on 9/20 building to moderate strength with faint hints of the Inactive Phase developing 9/10 over the dateline pushing east and exiting the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/24 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak to modest Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to fade and almost gone on 9/2 then rebuilding and holding weakly 9/8-9/23 with a mix of weak west and east anomalies filling the KWGA through that period. A solid Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east starting 9/16 through 11/13 with west anomalies steadily plodding east reaching the dateline by 9/28 holding, the pushing through the remainder of the KWGA 10/29-11/13. A moderate Inactive MJO pattern is to push into the KWGA on 11/2 slowly pushing east and nearly filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/21 with light east anomalies building over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is loosing control limited to the area south of California (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias was gone. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific till 8/29 then disappear only to back-build west on the dateline on on 9/16 holding that position filling the eastern portion of the KWGA through 11/11, then dissipating. A single contour low pressure bias is to develop 10/20 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E but very weak and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 9/12 slowly getting shoved east as the Active Phase and west anomalies take over the KWGA later in Sept. This suggests a development of a pure neutral ENSO pattern for the Fall and Winter. This forecast has held for 2 days now, so its not quite believable yet. Instead, some flavor of La nina has been forecast and we'll continue to believe that until such time a something stable appears and holds on the models.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was pushing east to 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 171W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 132W. Warm water has receded west and has stabilized there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1-2 deg C were building in coverage in the far West Pacific pushing east to 150W. East of there mostly cool anomalies were in control at 1-2 degs below normal from 150 meters down up to 75 meters down in the east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 was much the same suggesting no warm water east of 160W. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down there and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between Ecuador to 160W with a core at -15 cms at 140W on the equator with all positive anomalies limited from 165W and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/23) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (110W) produced by the last upwelling of a previous Kelvin Wave. Mostly cooler waters were in waves between 110W to 150W. An area of weak warming was gone along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/23): A string of mostly warming pockets were filling the area from the Galapagos to 122W then weakly cooling from 123W to 160W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/23) A broad area of warmer than normal water was nearshore from Ecuador up to Central America and into Mexico but brick walled limited from 110W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. The clear cool outflow that has been in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island has faded again and just barely present. Nearshore to California from the Golden Gate southward warmer water was taking control. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence an the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/24) Today's temps were rebounding up to -0.281 after falling to to -0.716 on 8/15. Temps previously were toggling around neutral 7/20-8/5 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps before that peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/24) Today temps were rising some to -0.264 after falling to -0.370 on 8/22, the bottom of a downward trend that continued for the previous 7 weeks. Previously temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/24) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then starting a slow fade from -0.3 degs in early Aug. The forecast indicates temps continuing a slow fade into mid November dropping to -1.00 degs then starting to slowly rise to -0.80 degs in mid Jan 2022 pushing up to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.80 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly in Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.41 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.57 degrees in Oct holding into Nov, then rising to -0.33 degs in Jan and neutral in March 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (8/24): The daily index was rising to +12.20 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +3.42 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +5.61 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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