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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Friday, August 20, 2021 2:15 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.9 - California & 4.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/16 thru Sun 8/22

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2S Fading in CA
Gale Forecast South of New Zealand

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Friday, August 20, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pnt) : Seas were 3.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 12.9 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.1 (Barbers Pnt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 6.2 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 15.8 secs from 188 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 70.5 degs, 69.6 (Topanga 103), 66.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 72.0 (Del Mar 153), 71.4 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.8 ft @ 16.1 secs from 200 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.0 ft @ 15.9 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.2 ft @ 15.6 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.9 ft @ 16.0 secs from 197 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 16.2 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-16 kts. Water temp 56.7 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.5 (46026), 61.3 degs (SF Bar 142), and 61.5 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (8/20) North and Central CA had waves at near head high and lined up but pretty warbled from south winds just off the coast. Protected breaks were waist to near chest high and soft but lined up and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets with some peaks 1-2 ft overhead and and lined up and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high with some head high sets and lined up and clean but inconsistent and soft. Central Orange County had set waves at head high with sets 1 ft overhead and real lined up and clean and mostly closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets up to 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean and peeling with long walls but with some texture on top. North San Diego had sets waves at head high and lined up and mostly closed out and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some leftover swell with waves occasionally chest to head high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting no real windswell with waves knee high and almost chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (8/20) Hawaii was getting the last fading remnants of swell from gale that developed Tues-Wed (8/11) producing up to 39 ft seas over the South Central Pacific aimed well northeast then faded out over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/12). That swell was just past its peak in California. After that the South Pacific quieted down with no swell producing weather systems having occurred. A gale is forecast southeast of New Zealand on Thurs-Fri (8/27) producing 34 ft seas aimed northeast. But until then, nothing is expected. Nothing is forecast in the NPac either except for the remnants of what was Hurricane Linda tracking over North Oahu on Mon (8/23) possibly setting up some windswell. We're moving towards the Fall transition.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (8/20) no swell tracking towards nor hitting California or Hawaii originating form the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm
Linda on Fri (8/20 ) was positioned 750 nmiles east of Maui with winds 35 kts tracking east at 15 kts producing 20 ft seas. Linda is to continue on this heading while holding strength moving just a few miles north of Maui on Mon (8/23) before sunrise with winds down to 25 kts (below tropical depression status) then impacting Oahu later in the morning. Windswell with seas 12 ft and rain is the likely result. Something to monitor.

 

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sat (8/21) north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and light over the Central CA coast with a eddy flow nearshore from Pt Arena southward early then collapsing in the afternoon with north winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA down into Central CA. Windswell fading.
  • Sun (8/22) north winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early over a small area with north west winds 5 kts for the remainder of North and Central CA holding all day. Limited windswell continues.
  • Mon (8/23) northwest winds build to 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts south of Pt Arena to Pt Conception all day. Modest windswell continues.
  • Tues (8/24) northwest winds are to be building slightly over Cape Mendocino at 20-25 kts early with northwest winds 5 kts south of there holding all day. Minimal windswell holding.
  • Wed (8/25) no change is forecast but with northwest winds building some in the afternoon into Central CA at 15 kts.
  • Thurs (8/26) the gradient builds with northwest winds 25 kts solid for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA holding up north if not building to 30 kts but with northwest winds fading to 5 kts over Central CA later. Northwest windswell building.
  • Fri (8/27) more of the same is forecast with north winds 30 kts up north and an eddy flow over Central CA. Windswell holding.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft solid with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (8/20) the influential southern branch of the jet was forming a very weak trough well southeast of New Zealand but with winds so weak at 80 kts as to not really support gale development. East and west of the trough the jet was ridging south down to 65S and over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to dissipate and a zonal flow is to set up with the jet tracking west to east flat down at 68S over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the southward displaced zonal flow is to continue through Wed (8/25) offering nothing. But then on Thurs (8/26) winds in the jet are to start building to 130 kts lifting northeast south of New Zealand starting to carve out a trough with it's apex up at 55S and free and clear of Antarctic Ice offering some support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere and building more into Fro (8/27). Perhaps a better trend is to set up.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (8/20) swell from a reasonably strong storm previously over the Central South Pacific was hitting California (see Central South Pacific Storm - Swell #2S below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Central Pacific Storm (Swell #2S)
On Tues AM (8/10) a new gale developed east of New Zealand producing south winds at 45 kts with seas 28 ft over a small area at 40S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built rapidly to 50 kts from the south-southeast over a decent sized area with seas building to 35 ft at 47.75S 160W aimed northeast. The Jason 3 satellite confirmed sea at 41.6 ft with a peak reading to 49.7 ft in the core of the fetch aimed northeast. So the model was undercalling it. On Wed AM (8/11) fetch was elongating to the northeast over a solid sized area at 40-45 kts with 39 ft seas at 44.75S 153.75S aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 36 ft at 43S 146.5W aimed northeast. The Jason 3 satellite confirmed seas at 43 ft with one reading to 46.9 ft again beating the model. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (8/12) from 35 kts from the west with seas 32 ft at 42.5S 139.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts from the southwest winds seas 29-30 ft at 41.25S 131.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Semi real swell to result for Tahiti, Hawaii and California with a very south angled for Hawaii. California to suffer some from shadowing from Eastern Polynesia with the core angle at peak swell generation of 201.98-204.885 degrees, but not too badly.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Fri (8/20) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees moving to 175 degrees

Southern CA: Swell continues on Fri (8/20) at 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (8/21) but still decent at 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (8/22) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 197-208 degrees focused on 204.885 degrees

North CA: Swell continues on Fri (8/20) at 2.9 ft @ 16 secs (4.5 ft with sets near 6.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (8/21) but still decent at 2.4 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (8/22) fading from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 194-205 degrees focused on 201.98 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no immediate swell producing weather systems are forecast.

But starting Thurs AM (8/26) a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand with a decent sized fetch of 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 57.25S 179E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to build to 45 kts lifting northeast with seas 33 ft at 56.25S 175W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/27) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 53.75S 162.5W aimed northeast.

Maybe another gale is to be right behind. But all this is about a week out and not really believable at this early date.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Slowly Rebuilding
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading and present only in the east. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in later August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/20) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at moderate strength filling the KWGA for the next week through the end of the model run on 8/27. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/19) A moderate Inactive MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Pattern holding unchanged over the KWGA on days 5 through 15 of the model run if not building to strong status. The dynamic model projects the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase rapidly fading on day 5 and gone on day 10 holding on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and forecast tracking east to the East Maritime Continent while collapsing to very weak weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase just noodling around in the Central Indian Ocean for the next 15 days at weak to very weak status and unmoved 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/19) A strong Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the East Pacific but still affecting the whole of equatorial Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move east over Central America on 8/29. A modest Active Phase (wet air) is forecast developing over the KWGA on 9/5 tracking east and filling the equatorial Pacific on 9/180 then moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/19) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with modest east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA starting 8/21-8/26. After that east anomalies are to start filling the KWGA at modest strength 8/29 continuing through the end of the model run on 9/16 with the Inactive Phase developing 9/3 and holding through the end of the model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/20 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to fade and almost gone on 8/28 then rebuild 9/9 through 9/28 with some version of light to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through that period. A solid Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east starting 9/14 through 10/23 with west anomalies steadily plodding east reaching the dateline by 9/29 then holding. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to try and push into the KWGA on 10/15 but stalling with the Active Phase rebuilding over the dateline 11/5 through the end of the model run on 11/17 with west anomalies in control over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is barely in control limited to the area south of California (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias was gone. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific till 8/29 then back-build west on the dateline on on 9/13 and holding that position filling the eastern portion of the KWGA through the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is to develop 10/8 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E like last winter and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 9/13 with west anomalies west of there and no change forecast. This suggests a return to some flavor of a very weak La Nina pressure pattern by late September with east anomalies and high a pressure bias taking over from the mid-KWGA and points east of there but possibly fading deeper into November.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 168W. The 24 deg isotherm was fading back to 133W. Warm water has receded west and continue on that trend. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1-2 deg C were building in coverage in the far West Pacific pushing east to 160W. East of there mostly cool anomalies were building at 1-2 degs below normal from 150 meters down up to 75 meters down in the east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 was much the same suggesting no warm water east of 160W. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down there and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between Ecuador to 160W and -15 cms at 140W on the equator with all positive anomalies limited from 170W and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/19) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (100W), then only in pockets from there west to 140W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves between 105W to 150W. An area of weak warming was holding along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/19): A string of mostly cooling pockets were filling the area from 110W to 150W. warming was from Ecuador to 110W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/19) A broad area of warmer than normal water was nearshore along Peru, then off Ecuador and Central America up into Mexico but brick walled limited from 105W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. The clear cool outflow that has been in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island was all but gone now. Nearshore to California warmer water was taking control. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence an the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/20) Today's temps were rising at -0.380 after falling to -0.716 on 8/15. Temps previously were toggling around neutral 7/20-8/5 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps before that peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/20) Today temps were falling at -0.347 continuing a trend for the past 6 weeks. Previously temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/20) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then starting a slow fade from -0.3 degs in early Aug. The forecast indicates temps continuing a slow fade into mid November dropping to -0.90 degs then quickly starting to slowly rise to -0.55 degs in mid Jan 2022 pushing up to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.75 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly in Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (8/20): The daily index was rising to +13.72 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was rising some at +4.58 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +5.11 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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