Saturday, July 28, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 10.0 secs from 176 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 180 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 4-10 kts. Water temperature 71.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.1 secs from 177 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 197 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 178 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 7.9 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 16-18 kts. Water temp 55.9 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (7/28) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the thigh to maybe waist range and heavily warbled from northwest wind early. Protected breaks were waist high and soft but reasonably clean and rideable if you're desperate. At Santa Cruz surf southern hemi swell was all but gone after a good long run of swell with waves today knee to maybe thigh high on the biggest rare sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was thigh to waist high and clean and weak but rideable. In North Orange Co waves were waist to maybe chest high on the sets and weak and textured from south wind. South Orange Country's best breaks were still getting southern hemi swell with waves shoulder to maybe head high on the sets but pretty ruffled from south wind early. In North San Diego surf was waist high and lined up when it comes and reasonably clean early but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and ruffled from northerly sideshore wind. The South Shore was hardly rideable with sets maybe waist high and clean and slow. The East Shore was getting small east windswell at waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (7/28) the last little dribbles from Central South Pacific Storm #4S was fading in California, all but gone. A tiny gale developed just east of New Zealand on Fri (7/27) with 32 ft seas aimed northeast and a stronger one is developing in the deep Southeast Pacific on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with 34 ft seas aimed east. But neither show signs of any real swell production potential for our forecast area. A small cutoff gale is forecast on Wed (8/1) producing 32 ft seas over a tiny area in the upper latitudes of the Central South Pacific aimed north. Otherwise a quiet pattern is to continue. Windswell remains the best option.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday AM (7/26) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.
California: On Saturday (7/28) a steady northerly flow at 15-20 kts was along the North and Central CA coast generated by high pressure at 1030 mbs centered in the Gulf of Alaska resulting in small short period junky windswell at exposed breaks. Sunday (7/29) the fetch is to fade some with north winds 15+ kts over all of North and Central CA waters and maybe to 20 kts over North CA producing just short period really junky windswell with poor local conditions. No real change is forecast on Mon (7/30) with high pressure at 1032 mbs still in the Central Gulf ridging east producing north winds at 15 kts down the Central Coast and up to 20 kts over North CA resulting in more junky short period windswell at exposed breaks. Tuesday (7/31) no real change is forecast with small junky north windswell to expected outcome. See QuikCAST's for details.
Hawaii: On Saturday (7/28) a pair of weak tropical waves were moving west with one 700 nmiles southeast of Hawaii and the second 1100 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island with high pressure in the Eastern Gulf feeding a weak local easterly flow pushing from 1000 niles east of Hawaii over the Islands at 10-15 kts generating minimal east short period windswell at exposed east facing breaks. On Sun (7/29) high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is to pulse some generating a more cohesive fetch of east winds over the same area at 15 kts extending over Hawaii resulting in improved odds for some decent windswell production along all exposed east facing shores. On Monday (7/30) the easterly flow is to build some in continuity and width streaming from California over Hawaii at 15 kts solid and being enhanced some by a the most distant tropical wave now about 700 east-southeast of the Big Island. Solid odds for modest east windswell along east facing shores. More of the same is forecast on Tues (7/31) with a solid fetch of 15 kts east winds covering the area between California and Hawaii while the tropical system fades 450 nmiles east of the Big Island. More windswell production expected. See QuikCAST's for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical system are being monitored and none are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (7/28) north winds were holding at 15 kts over all of Central CA and 20 kts over North CA with pockets to 25 kts. Sunday (7/29) north winds are forecast at 10-15 kts over all of Central CA and 20 kts over North CA and continuing on Mon (7/30) and Tues (7/31). Wednesday (8/1) north winds are forecast at 15 kts for Central CA and 20 kts over North CA waters building Thurs (8/2) at 25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for all of Central CA and holding Fri (8/3). Sat (8/4) 20 kt north winds are forecast for all nearshore waters of North and Central CA.
On Saturday AM (7/28) the southern branch of the jetstream was running zonal (west to east) down at 65S and very weak effectively over Antarctic Ice except for a weak trough in the far Southeast Pacific well east of the Southern CA swell window. There was no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours through Tues (7/31) the same basic pattern is to hold with a southward displaced zonal flow running east on the 65S latitude line but falling south to 75S by Tues (7/31) offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the weak zonal flow is to continue with the southern branch of the jet down at 75S over the width of the South Pacific actively suppressing gale development and then being reinforced later Fri (8/3) by a new ridge building under New Zealand and sweeping east. An unfavorable pattern to support gale development is to continue in the upper atmosphere.
On Saturday (7/28) no meaningful swell was being generated and none was in the ocean generated from previous weather systems. The South Pacific is asleep.
Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing weather systems are forecast.
That said a tiny cutoff gale did develop on Thurs PM (7/26) 450 nmiles east of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 42S 168W. On Fri (7/28) that tiny gale cutoff from the main energy of the jetstream built some with west winds to 45 kts producing seas of 30 ft at 44S 168W aimed mostly east. Fetch held in the evening at 45 kts from the west with seas 32 ft at 43S 160W. This system is to be gone by Sat AM (7/28). Small swell for Tahiti is possible but nothing is expected up into California or Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival later on Wed (8/2) pushing 1.0 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/3) at 1.0 ft @ 14 secs (1.0 ft). Swell fades from there. Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Also on Fri AM (7/27) a storm formed in the deep Southeast Pacific with 50 kt southwest winds pushing northeast just barely clear of Antarctic Ice generating 29 ft seas over a tiny area at 61S 131W. In the evening southwest winds were 45 kts aimed northeast with seas 34 ft at 58.5S 115W and moving outside the Southeast CA swell window. This system strengthened from there but only targeting Southern Chile and well east of the CA swell window. Low odds of any swell resulting for California.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
California: On Wed (8/1) the pressure gradient is to get somewhat better defined over North and Central CA with north winds 20+ kts nearshore and slightly larger and more defined windswell is to result. And by Thurs (8/2) north winds to build to 25+ kts over North CA and 20 kts over Central CA offering odds for larger windswell but still poor local conditions. Friday (8/3) more of the same is expected but with north winds fading to barely 25 kts over North CA later offering less potential for generating north windswell. Saturday (8/4) the fetch is to hold locally with north winds 20+ kts over all of North and Central CA and covering a good area off the coast resulting in more short period junky north windswell down into Central CA.
Hawaii: More of the same is forecast on Wed (8/1) with east winds 15 kts extending from California over the Islands driven by the remnants of a tropical wave tracks 300 nmiles southeast of the Big Island and high pressure holds at 1032 mbs 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii . Increase windswell size is expected. Thurs (8/2) no change is forecast with a solid fetch of 15 kt easterly winds continues from California over Hawaii with decent short period east windswell expected to result. Friday (8/3) the easterly fetch is to start fading as the tropical wave dissipates and high pressure starts to break down north of the Islands. Easterly fetch is to still be in play at 15 kts, but no longer continuous between CA and HI. More of the same on Sat (8/4).
Beyond 72 hours the models indicate a cutoff low is to form in the Central South Pacific on Tues PM (7/31) with 40 kt south winds aimed north generating 28 ft seas at 43S 154W aimed north. Fetch is to hold if not build slightly Wed AM (8/1) aimed north with 30 ft seas at 39.5S 155.5W. fetch is to be fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 27 ft at 38S 154W aimed north. This system is to fade from there. Possible modest swell for Tahiti, but only tiny for Hawaii and California if this system even forms.
Otherwise a quiet/swell drought pattern is setting up.
Details to follow...
Kelvin Wave Eruption Fading - ESPI Continues Moving in Right Direction
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (7/27) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening starting on the dateline turning westerly over the core of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific turning clam west of there then reversing and turning solid westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/28) light to modest westerly anomalies were over the KWGA and forecast to hold into 7/29. But on 7/30 a pocket of weak easterly anomalies are to build in the core of the KWGA holding through 8/3, then fading at the end of the model run on 8/4.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (7/27) A moderate Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA but with dry anomalies over the dateline. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 15 while the Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO holds contained in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but after the Active Phase fades, a moderate Inactive/Dry Phase develops in the West Pacific on day 15. The models are mostly in sync except for the last few days of the run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/28) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modest and stalled over the Western Pacific. It is to fade from here forward collapsing in strength in the West Pacific making no further eastward progress through the end of the model run 2 weeks out. The GEFS model has not updated.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/28) This model depicts a very weak Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central and East Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/12. A modest and weak Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/4 making slow east headway reaching the East Pacific and moving into Central America at the end of the model run on 9/6.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/27) This model depicts modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest west anomalies are to hold through the end of the model run in the KWGA through 8/22 except for a 3 day run of east anomalies on the dateline on starting 7/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/28) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO is just past it's peak over the KWGA with weak west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. The weak Active MJO pattern is to fade through 8/4 with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/8-8/27 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to redevelop on 9/4 holding through 10/22 with solid west anomalies in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/23 through the end of the model run on 10/25. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and has built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 and forecast to build starting today and then holding through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino starting today through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/9. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and should fully reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8). This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/28) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and is now steady at 158W due to weakening of a Kelvin Wave under the West Pacific. The 28 degs line previously was stationary on the dateline last winter, then started moving east on 5/15 to 165W, then to 160W on 5/22 and to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W. It was holding at 75 meters deep at 120W then retracting from the coast of Ecuador breaching at 105W. Anomaly wise warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth and well past their peak. Warm anomalies at +1.0 deg C were moving east from the far West Pacific but stop at 145W. There a small break and then they resume at 135W building to +2.0 deg C at 110W 100 meters down and pushing east into Ecuador. These warm waters are no longer breaching the surface. This Kelvin Wave had peaked and is to continue slowly fading. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 depicts a bubble of warm water pushing east in the East Pacific starting at 140W building to +4.5 degs centered at 110W extending east to Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 105W-145W. Additionally more warm water was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline reaching east to 170W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 115W, then weakening a little reaching east to the Galapagos before fading. There were no breaks and anomalies were 0-5 cm over that entire area with multiple imbedded pockets at 5+ cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/27) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate near neutral anomalies biased cool along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile and fading slightly. An area of warm water is erupting on the oceans surface on the equator starting at the Galapagos west to 160W and holding coverage between the Galapagos to 160W extending further south than at any point so far in this event down to 13S. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool previously south of the equator between 120W-150W and south of 5S were now gone limited to a region south of 3S between 130W to 160W.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/27): Mixed pockets of mainly warming were along the equator from Ecuador to 120W. Temps were neutral along the coasts of Chile and Peru but warming along the coast of Central America up into mainland Mexico. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa has turned to a warming pattern now, and that appears to start being mirrored off Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (7/25) An area of weak cool water was redeveloping along Chile and Peru. Of most interest was warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence, but still just in the mild warming category. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 145-180W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/28) Today's temps were fading some down to -0.384 degs. That is still lower than a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.75 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/28) Today temps were steady at +0.216, up from +0.136 a week ago, but that down considerably from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/28) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.15 degs and to +1.35 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still not falling below +1.2 by April 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/28): The daily index was rising today at 16.87. The 30 day average was rising today to 1.35 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was present even though the MJO is supposedly Active. The 90 day average was rising some too at -0.79, turning negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (7/28) Today the index was trying to rebound at -0.52 (after falling to -1.28 on 7/17). But that is way more negative than it recently was, when it hit the highest it's been in a year on 7/2 at -0.09. This recent negative trend appears to be fading. But the fact that it developed at all suggests La Nina has not completely given up it's grip on equatorial precipitation yet and the supposed El Nino pattern is NOT coupled. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table