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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 27, 2021 2:41 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/19 thru Sun 7/25

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell For CA
2 More Possibly Coming

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 0.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 193 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 6.2 secs from 45 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 193 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs, 66.6 (Topanga 103), 65.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.3 (Del Mar 153), 67.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 185 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 185 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.7 secs from 185 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 14.0 secs from 177 degrees Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temp 54.1 (Pt Reyes 029), 56.3 (46026), 58.8 degs (SF Bar 142), 56.1 (SF 46026), and 60.1 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/27) North and Central CA had waves at knee to maybe thigh high and weak but fairly clean with no wind and low clouds early. Protected breaks were flat to knee high on the sets and mushed and weak but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the bigger sets and inconsistent and clean and slightly lined up. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and ruffled from northwest wind. Central Orange County had set waves to 1 ft overhead and super lined up if not closed out with a fair amount of warble on it from northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up and peeling but a little soft and a bit warbled from local wind. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high and clean but soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was getting small short period windswell with waves thigh high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/27) Southern California was getting unexpected sideband swell from a gale that tracked southeast off New Zealand Sun-Mon (7/19) producing 29-30 ft seas not really aimed at the US West Coast. Surprise. Otherwise California was getting the last fading remnant swell energy from a system that formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east Thurs-Fri (7/16) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. A secondary gale formed from the remnants of the New Zealand gale in the deep Southeast Pacific on Mon-Tues (7/20) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Sideband swell is possible for CA. Beyond a weak gale formed in the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (7/27) producing a small area of up to 33 ft sea aimed northeast. But after that no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/27) no swell from previous fetch was in the water and no swell producing fetch was occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of swell producing interest were occurring or forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (7/28) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts off Cape Mendocino and nearly calm south of there and holding all day. No windswell forecast.
  • Thurs (7/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA from Pt Arena northward early and northwest 5-10 kts south of Pt Arena and holding all day. Low odds of small windswell developing.
  • Fri (7/30) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA north of Pt Arena and northwest 5 kts south of there over Central CA and holding all day. Perhaps some small windswell to result.
  • Sat (7/31) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA from Pt Arena northward and northwest 5 kts or less south of there over Central CA and holding all day. Minimal windswell to result at best.
  • Sun (8/1) northwest winds to be 20 kts over a building area from Pt Arena northward with northwest winds 5 kts south of there over Central CA holding all day. Small windswell possible.
  • Mon (8/2) northwest winds to be 20 kts over a building area from Pt Arena northward and off the coast down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 10-15 kts south of there over Central CA and building to 20 kts over all of North and Central CA later. Small raw windswell developing.
  • Tues (8/3) northwest winds to be 20+ kts over North and Central CA early and holding all day. Modest raw windswell continues.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/27) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging hard south over the Southwest Pacific into Antarctica then lifting north over the far southeast Pacific forming a weak trough somewhat supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the Southeast is to fade and push east of the Southern Ca swell window offering nothing while the big ridge in the west pushes east locking down any support for gale development into later Thurs (7/29). Beyond 72 hours the ridge in the west is to hold but a trough is to start lifting north over the far Southeast Pacific forming a trough in the Southern CA swell window early Fri (7/30) being fed by 130 kt wind lifting up to 48S late in the evening before starting to fade offering decent support for gale development. But by Sat (7/31) the trough is to be weak and east of the SCal swell window offering nothing. After that the ridge is to hold strong in the west reaching east to about 120W effectively locking down the entirety of the Hawaii and California swell window through the end of the model run on Tues (8/3) offering no support for gale development. Our luck has run out.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/27) an unexpected pulse of swell was hitting Southern CA presumably from a gale that tracked southeast from off New Zealand to the Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (7/19) with seas to 31 ft aimed mostly east. Otherwise remnant swell energy was still hitting California from a weak gale that formed southeast of New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below). Another tiny if even perceptible swell was radiating north towards California from a gale previously in the deep Southeast Pacific (see Deep Southeast Pacific Gale below). And behind that yet another swell was starting to radiate north from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another small gale is forecast in the far Southeast Pacific starting Thurs AM (7/29) producing south winds at 35-40 kts over a decent sized area and seas building from 23 ft at 58S 141W aimed north. South winds to start building in the evening at 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas building from 24 ft at 54S 137W aimed north-northeast. On Fri AM (7/30) south winds to be 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed north with seas to 26 ft at 55S 130W aimed north-northeast. In the evening south fetch is to continue at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 50S 131W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Wed PM (7/14) producing 40 kt south winds and seas building from 24 ft at 52.75S 173.5E aimed northeast. The gale built on Thurs AM (7/15) in strength and coverage with 45-50 kt south winds and seas building to 29 ft at 56.75S 176.25W aimed northeast. The gale was fading in the evening with a solid area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 54.5S 168.75W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/16) the gale was tracking east and being stretched northeast with 35-40 kts southwest winds over a larger area and seas 30 ft at 52S 159.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts and stretching well northeast with seas from the original fetch fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 151.25W aimed well northeast. On Sat AM (7/17) the gale dissipated.

Oahu: Dribbles fading on Sat (7/24). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

Southern CA: Dribbles fading on Tues (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-201 degrees

North CA: Dribbles fading on Tues (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees

 

Deep Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale started developing over the deep South Central Pacific on Mon AM (7/19) producing 40-45 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 59.75S 144.75W aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kts west winds tracked east with 33 ft seas at 60.75S 137W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading from 35 kts on Tues AM (7/20) aimed northeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 57.25S 128.75 aimed east. The gael is to dissipate after that. Small swell is radiating towards mainly Central and South America with sideband energy tracking towards California.

Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/28) building to 0.8 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/29) at 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0 ft). Swell dissipating after that (below 1 ft). Swell Direction: 185-195 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/29) building to 0.9 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell steady on Fri (7/30) at 0.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that (below 1 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees.

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (7/25) a small gale started building over the Central South Pacific with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 55.25S 148W aimed northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with a core to 40-45 kts and seas building in coverage at 30-31 ft at 49.5S 141.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/26) south fetch was fading but broad in coverage at 30-35 kts with a core to 45 kts and seas 26-28 ft at 52.75S 131W but reaching north to 45S 135W aimed north-northeast. in the evening fetch was fading from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 50S 128W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/27) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas fading from 25 ft at 47S 125W aimed northeast. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (8/1) with swell building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs later (2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (8/1) with swell building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Ninas' Revenge
Summary - 3 Kevin Waves were all but dissolved over the East Equatorial Pacific with cool water building underneath poised to take over. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/27) weak east anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for weak east anomalies holding over the KWGA building slightly starting 7/30 to modest status and holding in the core of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/3. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO was forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/26) The Active MJO was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Active Pattern weakening fast to almost nothing on day 5 with a weak Inactive signal developing on day 10 and building while filling the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the Active Phase fading on day 5 and gone on day 10 and holding that way into day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Pacific and forecast tracking steadily east into the east Atlantic at weak to very weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase migrating to the Indian Ocean 15 days out at very weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/26) A moderate Active Phase (wet air) was indicated over the KWGA with fragments of it also over the East KWGA. The Active Phase is to push fast east becoming focused on the East Pacific 8/10 then pushing into Central America on 8/20. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving over the KWGA 8/15 building and pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/4 and strong.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/26) This model depicts a cohesive Active MJO signal over the west KWGA today with modest west anomalies over the same area and weak east anomalies over the dateline tracking east. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal is to move through the KWGA through 8/9 with modest west anomalies in the KWGA during that window. East anomalies are to rebuild in the core of the KWGA at modest status starting 8/7 and building in coverage filling the KWGA on 8/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/23.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/27 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Active Phase of the MJO was peaking over the KWGA with neutral to weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to progress east across the KWGA with weak west anomalies moving west to east over the KWGA until the Active Phase fades on 8/9. A short lived Inactive Phase is to set up 8/6-8/27 with east anomalies taking over the KWGA. A broader Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east 8/22-10/10 with west anomalies reaching east to about 175E (80% of the way across the KWGA) through the timeframe. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow starting 9/29 tracking east through the end of the model run on 10/24 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the far East Pacific (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias over the West KWGA filling the western 50% of it to 150E while slowly retrograding west. The high pressure contour line is to slowly fade then back-build west to 170E on 8/28 and not moving any further west at the end of the model run. No second contour line is projected now. The single contour low pressure bias is to dissipate on 8/14 then rebuild 8/29 becoming recentered over the Maritime Continent like last winter. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 170E on 8/30 with no change to follow. This suggest a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by September with east anomalies and high a pressure bias taking over from the mid-KWGA and points east of there. This forecast has been stable for over a month now suggesting it will actually happen.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 170W. The 24 deg isotherm was retrograding west reaching only to 120W today. Warm water is definitely receding west. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were pushing east mostly just below the surface in a thin stream to 125W and pretty much gone east of there. Cool anomalies at -2 degs where building subsurface below the warm stream at 160W and 110W and moving east with less cool water connecting the two. This indicates warm water from previous Kelvin Waves were fading and a cool water wave was building underneath set to erupt. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 was even more stark suggesting no warm water remaining east of the dateline except for one small pocket near Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down on the dateline to within 40 meters of the surface in the east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between 90W-180W on the equator and all positive anomalies gone west of the dateline. the warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/26) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (105W), then only in pockets from there west to 140W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves. A area of weak warming was breaking up along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/26): A mix of warm and cold pockets were over the area from Ecuador to 145W but favored the cooler pockets.
Hi-res Overview: (7/26) A broad area of warmer than normal water was along Peru, Ecuador and Central America up into Mexico. But cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. A clear cool outflow was still pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/27) Today's temps were rising slightly at +0.029 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps previously peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/27) Today temps were trying to rebound to +0.025 after bottoming out at -0.112 on 7/22. Temps peaked at +0.332 on 7/1, the highest in a year. They previously peaked at +0.224 on 6/15. Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/27) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been rising since early Nov 2020 when they bottomed out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June holding to mid-July. The forecast indicates a steady fall in temperatures from 7/15 forward dropping to -0.85 degs in mid-Oct and holding there to mid Jan 2022. A slow but steady increase is forecast from there rising to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.75 degs later in Oct into early Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (7/27): The daily index was still positive at +10.71 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The Inactive Phase was solid. The 30 day average was rising steadily to +15.86 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +6.58 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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