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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, July 27, 2017 4:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.3 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/24 thru Sun 7/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 South Swells Pushing Towards CA
Tropics Continue Active East and West


On Thursday, July 27, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with windswell 1.6 ft @ 9.3 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest 4-6 kts. Water temperature 71.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.0 ft @ 8.6 secs from 234 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 8.4 secs from 234 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 0.6 ft @ 19.4 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.6 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with windswell 4.6 ft @ 7.8 secs from 314 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 56.8 degs.

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.


Current Conditions
On Thursday (7/27) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist to maybe chest high and clean but weak. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and clean early and weak. At Santa Cruz there was no rideable waves with clean conditions. In Southern California up north background windswell was occasionally producing waves at knee high and textured with northwest winds starting to blow. In North Orange Co background southern hemi swell was producing sets at thigh high on the sets and textured from northerly wind. In South Orange Co southern hemi background swell was occasionally producing waves in the waist high range and clean. In San Diego surf was maybe knee to thigh high and textured and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (7/27) tiny local north windswell was being generated by a modest version of the usual pressure gradient over North California and was also generating east windswell relative to Hawaii in conjunction with the remnants of Tropical Storm Greg east of the Big Island. A pair of south angled southern hemi swells were tracking north towards California down into Central and South America generated by 2 gales previously in the far Southeast Pacific. Also Hurricane Hillary was past her prime south of Southern CA and has produced swell tracking north. A small swell from Hurricane Noru that retrograded east a few days ago has set up some swell pushing towards Hawaii. The high level of tropical activity continues in the Pacific.

Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (7/27) a double barelled high pressure system was centered over the area from the North Dateline at 1036 mbs east into the Gulf of Alaska at 1028 mbs and was weakly ridging east into the North CA coast producing a small area of 20-25 kt north winds from Cape Mendocino down to Bodega Bay and southward off Monterey Bay resulting in small north windswell pushing down into exposed breaks in North and Central CA. This high was also producing trades at 15 kts extending from off Pt Conception southeast to the Hawaiian Islands with east-northeast winds 15 kts over the area producing modest east windswell along exposed east facing shores.

Over the next 72 hours relative to the mainland the high is to ease east some on Fri (7/28) feeding the nearshore gradient with north winds building in coverage at 20-25 kts from Cape Mendocino south to the Golden Gate with north winds 20 kts down to Pismo Beach resulting in somewhat larger but raw north windswell down into Central CA. The gradient is to start lifting north on Saturday (7/29) with peak winds still 25 kts focused over Cape Mendocino wit 15 kts winds over Central CA early but fading late and windswell fading some but getting cleaner. More of the same on Sunday (7/30) but with light winds for all of Central CA and up to almost Pt Arena with with gradient at 25 kts focused over Cape Mendocino.

For Hawaii east-northeast trade winds are to dissipate early Fri (7/28) from 15 kts with windswell fading some. But the remnants of Tropical Storm Greg are to be tracking east and positioned southeast of the Islands Sat (7/29) then just 30 nmiles south of the Islands Sun (7/30) producing east winds at 15 kts north of it's center possibly setting up more easterly windswell for east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
On Thurs AM (7/27) 3 tropical system were in play in the East Pacific. Another system was in the West Pacific

East Pacific
Tropical Depression Greg
was 450 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island tracking west at 11 kts with winds 20 kts and forecast to dissipate in 12 hours. no swell production of interest remains.
Tropical Storm Irwin was positioned 1,000 nmiles south-southeast of San Diego with winds 50 kts tracking west at 6 kts producing 14 ft seas, and forecast to stall Thurs PM (7/27) and through Fri (7/28) with winds building to 55 kts, then lifting north and interacting with Hurricane Hilary (below) while fading Sat-Mon (7/31) with winds down to 35 kts Mon AM. Limited to little potential for swell production is expected.

Hurricane Hilary was of most interest. Hillary was positioned today 900 nmiles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas on Tues AM (7/25) with winds 90 kts tracking west at 11 kts with seas 37 ft. Hillary held while tracking west-northwest in the evening with winds 90 kts at seas 33 ft while moving into the Point Dume swell window (152 degs) and the Dana Point swell window (160 degs) Wed AM (7/26) 16.2N 112.7W with winds still 90 kts and seas 33 ft moving west-northwest through the evening. On Thurs AM (7/27) Hilary was starting to fade some with winds 70 kts at 17.4N 115.6W (173 degrees relative to Dana Point) with seas 23 ft. Swell is tracking north towards Southern CA. Hilary is to continue on a west-northwest track while fading, falling below hurricane strength Fri PM (7/28) and still in the SCal swell window but swell generation potential is to be fading. Interestingly Hillary is to start sucking the remnants of Irwin up into it and they are to orbit each other in something called a 'Fujiwhara interaction' Sun-Mon (7/31). Take a look at the models. No real swell to result from this interaction, but this interaction is to be a rare event.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/28) building to 2.4 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) later. Swell continues Sat (7/29) pushing 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peak on Sun (7/30) holding through the day at 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/31) from 3.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 165 degrees moving to 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/30) building to 3.4 ft @ 13 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues Mon (7/31) at 4.0 ft @ 13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fading fast Tues (8/1) from 3.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 165 moving to 175 degrees


West Pacific
Hurricane Noru
previously was tracking west in the far West Pacific about 700 nmiles east-south east of Tokyo Japan on Sun AM (7/23), but then stalled and started tracking slowly east with winds 85 kts over a small area with seas 22 ft and starting to produce swell that could radiate into our forecast area. That motion continued in the evening with winds 90 kts and seas building to 25 ft at 27.2N 152.3E. On Mon AM (7/24) Noru continued east-southeast at 12 kts with winds 80 kts and seas 26 ft at 26.3N 154.4E. In the evening Noru continued east at 10 kts with winds 80 kts and seas 26 ft at 25.7N 156.7E. Noru turned northeast Tues AM (7/25) with winds 90 kts then turned northwest by the evening with winds falling from 85 kts and tracking west from there no longer producing swell aimed at our forecast area. Some swell is expected to be radiating towards Hawaii.

Kauai: Small swell expected starting Fri PM (7/28) at 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft) fading Sat AM (7/29) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5) from 284 degrees. This swell is to be shadowed relative to Oahu by Kauai.


California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/27) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska weakly ridging east generating a small pressure gradient mostly over North CA with north winds there at 20-25 kts over a modest footprint and winds less that 15 kts down the remainder of the CA coast from Bodega Bay southward. Fri (7/28) north winds to be 20-25 kts over a larger footprint focused on Pt Arena south to San Francisco with north winds 20 kts down to a point off Pismo Beach. Generally poor conditions nearshore. Saturday the gradient is to start lifting north still at 25 kts over Cape Mendocino but 10 kts from just south of Pt Arena southward starting late morning. Sunday (7/30) the gradient is to be fading from 25 kts from the north over Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Arena southward. More of the same is forecast Monday with the gradient fully dissipating Tues (8/1). Renewed high pressure to develop in Eastern Gulf later Wed (8/2) afternoon the north winds developing over Cape Mendocino to near 30 kts but a light northwest flow less than 10 kts holding from Bodega Bay southward and continuing on Thurs (8/3).


South Pacific

On Thursday AM (7/27) the jetstream continued generally in a zonal pattern with the northern branch running east initially on the 30S latitude line and the southern branch of the jet running east on the 55S latitude line but weak at 80 kts forming a trough south of New Zealand but too weak to support gale development. Over the Central Pacific both streams of the jet were still ridging south with the southern branch pushing into Antarctica south of 73S at 130W and continuing to a point south of South America. Basically the jet was offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere.
Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to quickly fade Fri (7/28) with a pure zonal flow taking over with the southern branch of the jet tracking east down at 66S and mostly over Antarctic Ice through Sun (7/30) offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a bit of a ridge is to build in the southern branch of the jet over the Southwest Pacific continuing the hard southward displaced zonal flow down at 67S and over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development through Tues (8/1). After that there some signs of a weak trough starting to build in the Southwest Pacific near 160W with southwest winds 110 kts pushing northeast up to 61S. Perhaps some limited support for gale development is possible if one is to believe a model 7 days out.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (7/28) a weak pressure pattern was in control of the South Pacific with no fetch capable of generating seas of interest indicated. Swell from two weather systems previously in the far Southeast Pacific have generated swell that is tracking north towards California (see 1st and 2nd Southeast Pacific Gales below).

Over the next 72 hours a tiny cutoff gale is forecast developing just east of New Zealand on Fri (7/28) producing 40-45 kt south winds and 24 ft seas in the evening building to 30 ft at 40.5S 177W Sat AM (7/29) then fading in the evening. Low odds of tiny swell radiating north to Tahiti and maybe Hawaii.

Otherwise no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the Central South Pacific Tues PM (7/19) producing 40 kt west winds and seas to barely 30 ft at 60S 161W aimed east. Winds held into Wed AM (7/19) with seas building to 31 ft at 60S 148W again aimed east. that fetch and sea fading by evening. Low odds of any meaningful swell to result.

Southern CA: Expect swell to arrive on Thurs (7/27) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/28) from 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees


1st Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (7/21) a gale started building in the Southeast Pacific producing a large area of 40+ kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 55S 131W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (7/22) fetch built to 45 kts embedded in a broad area of 40 kt southwest winds with seas building to 35 ft at 56S 121W barely in the NCal swell window and obliquely on the 182 degree path to Southern CA. In the evening the fetch was tracking northeast with 40-45 kts southwest winds moving well out of the SCal swell window targeting mainly Chile and Peru with 38 ft seas at 55S 111W targeting only South America. This system faded rapidly from there Sun AM (7/23) with fetch down to 35 kts over a small area and 36 ft seas at 53S 101W targeting only Chile and Peru.

Small sideband swell is expected for California with more for Central and South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/29) building to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell to continue upwards on Sun AM (7/30) holding at 2.6 ft @ 17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell to continue Mon (7/31) but being overrun by new south angled swell (see forecast below). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun AM (7/30) building to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs late (4.0 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell to continue Mon (7/31) at 2.3 ft @ 17 secs (4.0 ft). Swell to continue Tues (8/1) but being overrun by another south angled swell (see forecast below). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees


2nd Southeast Pacific Gale
A new gale developed on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window on Sun PM (7/23) with 45 kt south winds and lifting north with seas building from 32 ft over a small area at 57.5S 119W. On Mon AM (7/24) fetch fading from 40 kts still lifting north and on the edge of the SCal swell window with 30 ft seas at 53S 114W tracking north. Additional 35-40 kt south fetch built in the same area in the evening with 32 ft seas at 51S 115W pushing due north. On Tues AM fetch was still 40 kts from the south but well east of the SCal swell window with 31 ft seas at 45.5S 11W pushing due north. This system is to be gone by evening.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on later Mon (7/31) building to 3.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (5.5 ft). Swell continues on Tues (8/1) at 3.2 ft @ 17-18 secs early (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). On Wed (8/2) swell holding at 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues Thurs (8/3) at 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 175 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on later Mon (7/31) building to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (8/1) at 2.3 ft @ 18 secs early (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft) at exposed breaks. swell continues on Wed (8/2) at 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues Thurs (8/3) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 170-175 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/31) high pressure is to be fading some west of the California Coast generating north winds at 25 kts over the North CA with light winds south of Pt Arena making small north windswell down into exposed breaks in North and Central CA. A rapid collapse of the gradient is forecast Tues (8/1) with north winds 15-20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and a light north flow 10 kts or so south of there offering no swell production potential. Wednesday (8/2) new high pressure is to start ridging east from the dateline region with the gradient awakening and north winds building to 30 kts over Cape Mendocino with light winds south of Pt Arena holding into Thursday with local north windswell on the increase.

For Hawaii trades to hold below 15 kts from the east Mon-Thurs (8/3) with no windswell of interest expected.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system or fetch of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...


SSTs Falling - La Nina Like Pattern Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Monday (7/26) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East Equatorial Pacific but modestly easterly over the entire KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/27) Moderate east anomalies were modeled over the Eastern KWGA and forecast to slowly fade and move east over the next week limited to the far Easter KWGA by the end of the 7 day model run (8/3). A week ago it looked like the long running Inactive Phase of the MJO/La Nina was dissipating. But now it appears to have not given up and if anything, is stronger than ever per this, the GFS model. Other models offer a different perspective (see below).

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 7/26 a building Active/Wet MJO pattern was depicted over the West Pacific. The statistical model depicts the Active Phase is to hold for the next 12 days then starting to fade 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing but with the Active Phase not fading, but building 2 weeks out. Perhaps a real Active Pattern will set up rather than being dominated by the Inactive Phase of the MJO as has been the case the past 6 months.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/27) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest over the far West Pacific and is to track steadily east reaching the dateline 1 week out and then retrograding back west from there while holding strength. The GEFS model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/27) This model depicts a modest Active/Wet Pattern over the Central Pacific moving east while fading reaching the East Pacific and over Central America on 8/16. A modest Dry/Inactive Phase to set up in the Indian Ocean 8/6 tracking east and reaching the far West Pacific 8/26 and moving to the dateline 9/5, the end of the model run. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (7/27) This model depicts a very weak Active MJO signal over the west KWGA with neutral to weak west anomalies indicated there. Over the coming days weak west anomalies are to build some into 8/7 as the Active MJO moves over the dateline. The Active Phase is to fade 8/20 with west anomalies weakening only to rebuild some 9/4 with west anomalies holding in the KWGA generally in the weak category. Perhaps a weak Inactive Phase to set up late-Sept with winds turning neutral holding through the end of the model run 10/24. Of note: East anomalies are in-play from the dateline and points east of there and are to hold into mid-Oct. The low pass filter indicates a La Nina signal redeveloped 7/25 from the dateline eastward and is to hold for the foreseeable future. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up or even a weak La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/27) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs over a shallow area at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line has retrograded heavily to 158W. The 24 deg isotherm has retrograded west to 112W and is rising to 75 meters deep at 140W 9previously 100 meters). The warm water layer in the East Pacific is getting shallower. Anomaly wise a generic pattern of 0.0 to +1.0 deg anomalies stretches from the East to West Pacific from 90 meters upward and is getting shallower. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 depicts fragmented pockets of warm water from the west to the east suggesting a homogenous pattern biased warm in effect of the upper reaches of the entire equatorial Pacific. There is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) In all no positive or negative anomalies are present over the length of the equatorial Pacific. Effectively a dead neutral pattern is in control of the entire equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/26) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate shrinking cool anomaly pattern along Peru and Ecuador tracking northwest up to the Galapagos and slightly west of there, but no further. Nearshore upwelling appears to be in control. Warming well west of South America is loosing ground out to 100W. Also a broad pocket of cooling that was building centered at 25S 100W (well off Chile) is holding. Cooling is also present south of mainland Mexico to the equator. Overall cooling both north and south was more defined as compared to the last forecast update (7/15) and is taking control from 110W and points east of there. The La Nina that developed Spring 2016 faded and was replaced by an El Nino like pattern that tried to build March-May 2017, but that too has dissipated and is being replaced by a neutral pattern possibly trending cool (starting July 2017).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/25): A neutral trend was along the coast of Chile and Peru. A cooling trend was pushing west off Ecuador and the Galapagos out to 150W interspersed with some alternating pockets of warm water. And weaker cooling continues west to the dateline. An early start of a legit La Nina pattern appears to be occurring. A strong warming trend continues in the Northern Hemi from California pushing north of Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview:
(7/25) A weak warm regime is barely holding over Chile but a thin and building stream of cooler water is depicted just off Peru northwest to the Galapagos then turning west along the equator tracking west to 140W. West of there a warmer pattern existing out to 140E. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/27) Today's temps have bottomed out, down at -0.800, down from a warm peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2 and +0.6 degs on 6/20.  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (7/27) temps were continuing to fall from consistently +0.5 degs through 7/18, now down to +0.070.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/23) The forecast has temps falling steadily from +0.50 degs July 1 to +0.0 in early Aug to -0.25 in Oct, then dropping steadily to -0.65 in Dec then stating to rebound to 0.0 in early March 2018 and perhaps warming to +0.2 degs in April. This suggests a neutral pattern biased cool setting up for the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data (7/21) now suggest a legit La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos starting weakly in August and building steadily looking very La Nina like in Nov through Jan 2018. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume updated (7/25) depicts temps warmed to +0.5 degs in June. Temps are forecast to fade some to +0.3 degs in July, and are to hold there solid through March 2018 suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through March.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (7/27): The daily index was rising at 4.55 having been positive from the previous 13 days. The 30 day average was rising steadily at 4.95. The 90 day average was rising at -1.47 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (7/27) Today's value was steady at -2.01 (up from -2.20 on 6/28) but still strongly suggesting a turn towards La Nina. A supposed peak of this La Nina was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94. So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.31, June=+0.17. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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