Wednesday, July 12, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.1 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down. Using Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 6.6 secs from 65 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 158 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 64.9 degs, 67.6 (Topanga 103), 61.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 68.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 8.6 secs from 304 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.6 ft @ 8.7 secs from 249 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.6 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.3 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.5 secs from 201 degrees. Water temperature was 67.1 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 7.7 secs from 320 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-18 kts (46026). Water temp 51.3 (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.1 (San Francisco 46026), 55.4 (SF Bar 142), 57.9 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 56.7 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Wednesday (7/12) North and Central CA waves were waist high plus coming from the northwest and warbled if not nearly chopped and mushed with dense overcast and northwest wind on it. Protected breaks were waist high and cleaner but still somewhat warbled and soft and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high and soft but clean and overcast early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and somewhat lined up and mushed with northwest warble but no nearshore wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high coming from the south and lined up but pretty soft and pretty warbled from light northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and textured and soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and textured and crumbled but not real wind. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was chest high and lined up but broken up from easterly warbled and weird. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Wednesday (7/12) in California no swell of interest was hitting. But in Hawaii swell was hitting originating from a gale that developed just east of New Zealand Tues-Wed (7/5) producing 26 ft seas aimed northeast. Small weak swell from it is also propagating towards California. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast. We're in the doldrums of summer.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Wednesday (7/12) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated relative to Hawaii or California.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Calvin was building located 650 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 35 kts tracking east. Calvin is expected to to continue on this course while building, reaching hurricane strength on on Thurs AM (7/13) then building to 75 kts on Fri Am (7/14) still tracking east and offering no swell production for the US West Coast and well east of the Hawaiian swell window. Calvin is to accelerate while fading to tropical storm strength on Sun (7/16) while encountering colder water. No swell expected to result for our forecast area.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Thurs AM (7/13) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts along the Central CA coast. No windswell of interest forecast.
- Fri AM (7/14) northwest winds are forecast building in coverage at 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 20+ kts over Cape Mendocino and down the North Ca coast and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some.
- Sat AM (7/15) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts down to for Pt Reyes and 15-20 kts mainly off the coast of Central CA early. In the afternoon more of the same is forecast but with light northwest winds from the Golden Gate southward. Windswell building some.
- Sun AM (7/16) high pressure starts building in well north of Hawaii ridging east with northwest winds are forecast at 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino but an eddy flow (south winds) from Bodega Bay southward. no change in the afternoon. Windswell building.
- Mon AM (7/17) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts limited to North CA with and eddy flow from Pt Reyes southward. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
- Tues AM (7/18) northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds holding at 25 kts for North CA and building to 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding and getting trashed in Central CA.
- Wed AM (7/19) northwest winds hold at 25 kts for Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 15 kts down over Central CA early. Windswell fading slightly.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection: 14,000+ ft steady from here forward. Summer has arrived in the mountains (starting 7/1). Solid snowmelt continuing.
- - -
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Wednesday (7/12) the jetstream was split with the northern branch dominating producing 140 kt winds blowing east off Australia on the 28N latitude line weakening east of the California swell window pushing into Peru. The influential southern branch was very weak running east on the 65S latitude line forming a weak ridge running over the Ross Ice Shelf and ice locked offering no trough nor support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the ridge in the southern branch pushing further south down to 70S and deeper over the Ross Ice Shelf and heading east from there offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (7/15) no real change is forecast with another potential bout of wind energy setting up under New Zealand looking to fall southeast and over the Ross Ice Shelf again on Wed (7/19).
On Wednesday (7/12) tiny swell from a weak gale previously in the Southwest Pacific just east of New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and weakly bounds for the US West Coast (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing just south and east of New Zealand on Mon PM (7/3) producing 30-35 kt southwest winds over a decent sized area with seas building from 23 ft at 48.25S 166.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/4) the gale was building in coverage with 30-35 kts southwest winds aimed northeast and seas 25 ft at 50.5S 170E aimed northeast trying to get sufficient traction on the oceans surface. In the evening fetch consolidated more at 35-40 kts from the southwest while lifting northeast with seas 25 ft at 47.5S 178W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (7/5) 30-35 kt southwest winds continued nearly stationary just east of New Zealand with seas 27 ft at 45.5S 166.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts and shrinking in coverage with seas 25 ft at 42.5S 177.5W aimed northeast. The gale was gone after that. Maybe some small swell to result pushing northeast.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/12) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs early (3.0 ft) with period dropping to 15 secs later in the day. Swell fading Thurs (7/13) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Fri (7/14) fading from 1.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/14) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft) mid-day. Swell holding Sat (7/15) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/16) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/14) building to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft) late. Swell holding Sat (7/15) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/16) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 211 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
El Nino Stalled - Inactive MJO In-Place
Kelvin Wave #4 Is Erupting - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Holding Steady in Coverage
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds from MJO #6 likely have produced another Kelvin Wave. But the MJO has stalled now. Sea Surface Temperatures are stable but not warming or expanding. And the SOI is giving up ground. The MJO machine has faltered and the atmosphere is showing no signs of becoming coupled with the ocean.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/12) A mix of weak to moderate east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA and evenly split with the east anomalies limited to the far West KWGA. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies are to slowly fade in the West KWGA through 7/15 while weak to modest west anomalies hold and then fill the KWGA through 7/20. A small pocket of east anomalies are to reappear over much of the KWGA 7/20-7/22, then quickly fading with moderate west anomalies taking over on 7/24 and building through the end of the model run on 7/28. East anomalies are to build solidly on the eastern edge of the KWGA 7/17 filling the east equatorial Pacific beyond.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/11) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO pattern in control holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/12) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Indian Ocean and is to ease east to the East Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/12) A moderate Active (wet) pattern over the far West Pacific today as the Inactive phase exits east from the Pacific. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) continuing over the KWGA through 7/27 then fading while pushing east of the KWGA and into Ecuador on 8/11 and weak. A new Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the the KWGA on 8/1 filling it through 8/16 then fading over the Central Pacific the last day of the model run on 8/21.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/11) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was all but gone over the East Pacific with a modest west anomalies filling the KWGA but for one small pocket of east anomalies near 145E. The forecast indicates east anomalies gone on 7/14 with west anomalies filling the KWGA. But the Inactive Phase is to reappear 7/17-7/28 but with west anomalies mostly holding and then building to strong status 7/25 and building through the end of the model run on 8/8 as the Active Phase of the MJO takes over starting 7/28. East anomalies are to build from the dateline and points east of there 7/22-8/2.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was holding over the KWGA with neutral to weak east anomalies in one small pocket near 145E. Otherwise weak west anomalies were in control. The Inactive Phase is to slowly traverse the KWGA finally gone on 7/17 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA from here forward. The Active Phase starts building 7/15 in the west and filling the KWGA by 7/21 and holding through 9/6 with modest west anomalies the whole time but strong 7/27-8/5 centered at 165E. A neutral MJO is forecast late Aug through the end of the model run on 10/9 but with modest west anomalies still in control. Basically west anomalies are forecast from here forward. El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 125W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east to 120W in Aug and tracking slowly east from there and gone by Oct 7. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 170E with 3 contour lines and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 145W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A gradual push east is to continue through 7/25 then stalling at 135W filling most of the Pacific with the third contour line holding till 8/15. The primarily contours leading edge is to be locked at 135W through the end of the model run with it's center easing east to 175E. This is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next and has been since Oct 2022. It appears a strong El Nino is developing.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/12) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and easing east to 180W (previously 180W) with the 29 degree isotherm backtracking from 157W to 161W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 129W (previously 120W). The 26 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was stable at 65 m down in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started at 153W (previously 165W) pushing east with +3-7 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 138W. +6 degree anomalies were from 112W into Ecuador. The warm pool is discharging to the surface and no new warm water other than the base warm state at +1 degs were in the West Pacific, meaning no new Kelvin Wave were in-flight. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates a huge very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3-4 erupting from 145W into Ecuador. A pocket of warmer water was straddling the dateline from 170E to 160W at +2-3 degs (Kelvin Wave #5) while another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 120E at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #6). In other words, this image suggests there more warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent than what the TAO array suggests but not defined clear Kelvin Wave was evident. More just a very warm base state. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms connected to a +10-15 cm pocket from 118W east into Ecuador. But heights were only at 0 to +5 over a vast portion of the Central and West Pacific with a small break at 142W suggesting no major reservoir of warm water exists there. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 133W and east of there. But a steady decline in temps has occurred west of there with pockets in the 0-0.5 degs range now appearing. The warm water flow is backing off with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring). Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/11) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador (the strongest so far this event) and building the past few days with lesser but still serious heat extending up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja with a stable tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching west beyond the dateline with a warmer core to 138W. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still quite evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and a Springtime upwelling pattern still in control there and likely being reinforced. La Nina is not budging atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/11): A neutral pattern was in control. of the equatorial Pacific. It's not surprising there's no clear signal of warming along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get much warmer. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (7/11) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador out to 105W. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Everything is now looking like El Nino. But the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California persists unfazed. Very perplexing. It's a clear sign of the negative PDO and it is not budging.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are up some at +3.129 after hovering near +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are steady at +0.861 after rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rise to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June.
Forecast (7/12) - Temps are above in the El Nino range at +0.95 degs today and are to slowly rise to +1.1 degs in mid-Aug then start rising quickly, to +1.95 degs in Nov and solidly in El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling from +0.95 degs in mid-July to +0.75 degs in mid-Aug then steadily rising to +1.50 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 16, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.120 degs today and it's the 4th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.298 in July and up to +1.466 degrees in Oct then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.761 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models but 3 of 17 are higher still.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/12) the Daily Index was positive at +5.23 and has been positive the last 20 days. It had been negative 11 days prior. It was positive 5 days previous to that then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was steady at +2.23 after crossing the neutral point on 7/3. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -5.92 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.
- - -
NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table