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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 12, 2022 1:29 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 4.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/11 thru Sun 7/17

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

1st New Zealand Swell Arriving in CA
2nd Swell Hitting HI - 3rd Stronger Swell Behind

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, July 12, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 15.8 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.6 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 37 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 207 degrees. Wind south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 67.5 (Topanga 103), 59.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.0 (Del Mar 153), 67.8 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.9 ft @ 8.0 secs from 206 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.6 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 195 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.2 secs from 198 degrees. Water temp 69.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 9.0 secs from 319 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.1 ft @ 15.6 secs from 197 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temp 57.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (Pt Reyes 46013), 54.7 (46026), 58.1 (SF Bar 142), 61.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/12) North and Central CA had set waves at maybe waist high and warbled and sloppy and mushed from south wind but not white capped. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and textured. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high or so and clean but soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and soft but real clean early. Central Orange County had occasional sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weak and soft but somewhat lined up and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few sets to chest high or a little more on the peak and lined up but soft and with a light texture on it. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and soft and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some swell with waves head high to maybe 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with power but with easterly lump running through it with clean conditions. The East Shore had east windswell at waist to chest high and nearly chopped from from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/12) California was getting minimal background southern hemi swell while Hawaii was getting swell that was generated under New Zealand on Sun-Tues (7/5) from a gale that produced up to 35 ft seas aimed east over a modest sized area. And swell from another gale that developed Tues-Thurs (7/7) with 28-32 ft seas aimed east-northeast over a decent sized area was also starting to arrive in Hawaii and eventually bound for California. And another gale developed in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (7/12) with up to 44 ft seas confirmed aimed well northeast. That swell is propagating northeast now. So there's something to look forward to. And yet another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand Sun-Mon (7/18) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/12) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Darby - On Monday evening (7/11) Hurricane Darby was 1,300 nmiles southwest of Southern California and just starting to peak with winds 120 kts (138 mph) tracking west toward Hawaii. Darby reached hurricane status on Sun PM (7/10) at a position due south of Pt Conception tracking east. As a result no meaningful swell was radiating towards Southern CA. Looking forward from Tues AM (7/12) Darby was 1560 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii with winds 115 kts (132 mph) and is to continue on an easterly track while slowly losing wind speed and down to minimal tropical storm status on Fri AM (7/15) 600 nmiles east of the Big Island and fading fast at Depression status 24 hours later. Darby is to pass south of the Big Island later Saturday and be nothing more than a tropical low pressure system. Maybe some swell is to result for the East and Southeast Shores of the Big Island, but nothing more.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (7/14) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA down to just north of Bodega Bay and south 5 kts from Pt Reyes southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts from Pt Reyes northward and northwest 10 kts for all of Central CA. Limited windswell production possible.
  • Thurs (7/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North and Central CA. Small junky windswell expected.
  • Fri (7/16) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds building to 20 kts solid in the afternoon. Junky windswell forecast.
  • Sat (7/17) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts from Pt Arena southward to the Golden Gate early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is expected. Junky windswell is forecast.
  • Sun (7/18) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon. Junky windswell continues.
  • Mon (7/19) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Short period junky windswell fading some.
  • Tues (7/20) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA early fading to 10-15 kts later. Windswell dissipating.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A full summertime pattern is in control now.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/12) the important southern branch of the jetstream was pushing north over the Central South Pacific at 170 kts merging with the northern branch of the jet forming a well defined trough offering good support for gale development. East of there the jet was ridging hard south pushing to 70S offering nothing and the jet was also ridging south under New Zealand to 68S offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to slowly push east while fading on Wed (7/13) with support for gale development starting to fade and a generalized ridging pattern setting up over the South Pacific with the jet running east down at 67S over the bulk of the South Pacific. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (7/16) the ridge is to build under New Zealand pushing south over the Ross Ice Shelf and then into Antarctica proper early Sun (7/17) offering no support for gale development. But on Sun (7/17) another small trough is to start building well south of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds pushing northeast to a point just east of New Zealand on Mon (7/18) then tracking east and holding on Tues (7/19) perhaps offering some support for gale development.


Surface Analysis
Swell is fading in Hawaii but starting to arrive in California originating from a gale that developed under New Zealand (see 1st New Zealand Gale below). And swell from a second gale that developed under New Zealand was starting to hit Hawaii and is propagating northeast toward California (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below). And larger swell from a 3rd Storm is propagating northeast towards both Hawaii and California (see 3rd and Strongest Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

1st New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (7/3) a gale developed tracking east from under New Zealand with 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 165E aimed east. In the evening west-southwest fetch continued at 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 53.25S 165.5E aimed east. On Mon AM fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas up to 36 ft at 54.25S 178.75E aimed east-northeast. Fetch continued east in the evening at 45-50 kts from the southwest over a tiny area with seas 34 ft at 54S 166.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (7/5) from 40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.5S 155W aimed east-northeast. The gale to dissipate quickly from there. Small swell to result for Hawaii and California.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Tues (7/12) from 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early and being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 196 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 210-211 degrees

 

2nd New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (7/4) a gale started developing just southwest of New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 51.5S 162.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (7/5) fetch was building to 45 kts embedded in a larger area of 40+ kt southwest winds with seas building to 32 ft at 52S 178E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was falling south hard at 45-50 kts with a secondary fetch of 40 kt southwest winds building over a solid area just west of it producing 30 ft seas at 56S 174E and 34 ft seas at 57.5S 173.5W aimed east. But the Jason-3 satellite made a pass directly over the core of the storm at 0Z and reported a 15 reading average of 35.2 ft at 554.51S 172.99E with a single reading to 38.5 ft where the model suggested seas should be 29-30 ft. So the model underestimated the sea state. On Wed AM (7/6) the 2 fetch areas consolidated resulting in a single fetch of southwest winds at 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas 34 ft at 52.5S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 35-40 kts southwest winds were present with seas 32 ft at 56.25S 170W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/7) southwest winds are to be fading from 35 kts over a large area aimed northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 54.25S 168.5W. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 54.25S 158.5W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (7/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/14) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/15) 1.3 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell overriding it. Swell Direction: 204-210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell building underneath. Swell Direction: 202-210 degrees

 

3rd and Strongest Storm
Another gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat PM (7/9) with 50 kt south winds over a building area imbedded in a broader area of 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 29 ft at 52S 175W aimed north. The Jason-3 satellite made a pass over the northwest quadrant of the storm at 06Z and reported at 15 reading average of 32.5 ft at 48.69S 171.15W with a single reading at 35.2 ft while the model indicated seas of 32 ft in that area. So the model was on track. On Sun AM (7/10) winds were building over a solid area at 50-55 kts from the south with seas building from 41 ft at 55.5S 163.5W aimed northeast and 38 ft seas at 51.5S 163W. In the evening fetch lifted northeast at 50 kts over a solid area with seas modeled to 43 ft at 51.5S 155.75W aimed northeast. But the Jason-3 satellite passed over the core of the fetch 2 times and reported a 15 reading average of 34.4 ft at 00Z at 58.26S 165.97W and a single reading of 36.9 ft at 22Z where the model indicated seas were 28 ft over the far southwest quadrant of the storm. And at 06Z the satellite made another pass with a 15 reading average of 48.9 ft with one reading to 55.8 ft at 55.225S 159.95W in the south portion of the fetch area where the model indicated seas were 38-40 ft. So the model appears to have under-estimated the seas in both cases. Likely the storm developed stronger than forecast. On Mon AM (7/11) a broad fetch of 40-45 kt south winds were pushing north with seas 41 ft at 52S 158W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts over a solid area aimed north with seas 34 ft at 46.5S 155W aimed northeast. But again the Jason-3 satellite reported a 15 reading average of 38.1 ft with one reading to 42.7 ft, beating the model considerably. The gale was fading Tues AM (7/12) with southwest winds 35-40 kts over a moderate sized area aimed northeast and seas fading from 32 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas to rapidly dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/16) building to 2.3 ft @ 19 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (7/17) at 3.0 ft @ 17 secs (5.0 ft - 10 ft faces) mid-day with bigger sets and this is possibly underestimated. Swell fading some on Mon (7/18) from 2.9 ft @ 16 secs (4.5 ft) with bigger sets and again likely underestimated early in the day. On Tues (7/19) swell is to be fading from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (7/20) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Faint dribbles on Thurs (7/21) fading out. Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/18) building to 2.3 ft @ 19 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Much energy in the water. Swell building on Tues (7/19) to 3.1 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (5.5 ft - 10 ft faces) with bigger sets and possibly underestimated. Swell still solid Wed AM (7/20) but fading from 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.8 ft) and possibly still underestimated. Swell fading on Thurs (7/21) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/22) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201-202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/18) building to 2.1 ft @ 19 secs later (4.0 ft). Much energy in the water. Swell building on Tues (7/19) to 3.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.2 ft - 10 ft faces) with bigger sets and possibly underestimated. Swell still solid Wed AM (7/20) but fading from 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (5.0 ft) and possibly still underestimated. Swell fading on Thurs (7/21) from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.2 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/22) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196-201 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours on Sun AM (7/17) the models are hinting at a new gale developing southeast of New Zealand with 40 kt west winds over a decent sized area and seas building from 27 ft at 55.5S 161.75E aimed east. In the evening a small fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds are forecast with seas building to 35 ft at 57.5S 173.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (7/18) southwest winds to be 45 kts over a modest sized area with seas 38 ft at 56S 178.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts over a good sized area with seas fading from 38 ft at 54.75S 165.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fall southeast and fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Starting to Break-Up
Cool Water Losing Coverage -
Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/12) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA centered on the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status and solid in coverage centered on the dateline through 7/16, then rapidly fading down to modest strength at the end of the model run on 7/19.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/11) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active signal slowly building weakly filling half the KWGA on days 5 and 1 of the model run then decaying and gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase limited only to the far West KWGA at best on day 5 of the model run then turning neutral on day 10 and beyond.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(7/12) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Maritime Continent and is to weaken while moving to the West Pacific over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase weak and stationary over the Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/11) The Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the Maritime Continent with fragments of it reaching east over the West Pacific. The forecast depicts the Active Phase (wet air) fragmenting and pushing east over the KWGA 7/13-7/21 and then into Central America on 8/5. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building moving into the KWGA on 8/5 and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/11) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was just east of the KWGA today but with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the entire KWGA. East anomalies are to hold unchanged through the end of the model run on 8/8 even while the Active Phase of the MJO develops over the East KWGA on 7/18 and eases east from there and out of the KWGA by 7/30. It is to produce west anomalies moving over the West KWGA to 150E 7/19-7/26. But for the most part east anomalies are to prevail.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(7/12 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was exiting over the far East KWGA with east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts a weak Active Phase developing over the far West KWGA today and pushing east over the dateline through 8/3 with westerly anomalies building east to about 160E on 7/23 and moving no further east. East anomalies are to redevelop filling the KWGA on 7/28 into 8/10 then getting pushed east a another weak Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 8/5 building east to the dateline on 8/20 then holding through the end of the model run on 10/9 but with west anomalies making it to 145E but no further filling 40% of the KWGA with east anomalies solid from 165E and points east of there. This is not good. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/18 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 150E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/4. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 166E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 178E from 177W. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 126W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 170W with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east from there connecting to a pocket of +3 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W then breaking with a second warm pocket at between 100W to 140W and reaching the surface if not breaching it. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W but getting overrun by the warm water. A Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east but also starting to break up. It appears warm water is over the vast majority of the subsurface equatorial Pacific. One could guess that this is La Ninas last stand. Only previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator pushing from the dateline with a second pocket between 100W to 135W.A small pocket of negative anomalies at -5cms were at 145W. -5 cms anomalies were also over the Galapagos. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -0.5 degs limited between Ecuador and 95W. Neutral anomalies were building between 140-170W. The Kelvin Wave looks like its starting to break up from lack of momentum.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/11) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. But an area of warm water was building nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 145W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/11): A pocket of warming was on the equator at 90W and 105W. A pocket of cooling water was at 100W and 105W. No solid trend was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/11) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were building on the equator in the east aligned in a thin but broadening stream from Ecuador to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave starting to erupt over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) Today's temps were steady at -1.333 after rising to -1.189 (7/7) and -1.534 (7/5) and had been more or less steady at -1.5 degs since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/12) Today's temps were more or less steady at -0.288 today after peaking at -0.275 on 7/5 and had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs.
Forecast (7/12) - Temps are to fall fast from mid-July to about -1.0 degs by Aug and dropping to -1.15 degs in mid-Nov, before making a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.20 degs in April. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.50 degs mid-July then quickly receding to -0.75 degree in Aug falling to -0.90 degs mid-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July and August, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec-Jan neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening the whole time from here forward.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.642 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.582 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.692 in November before rising to -0.574 in Dec and -0.362 degs in Jan and -0.162 in Feb. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/12) the daily index was positive at +12.25 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +15.04 today after peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +16.62 today after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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