On Sunday (7/8) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and wind blown. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist to chest high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was up to the thigh to waist high range at best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was maybe thigh high on the best sets. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting locally generated northwest windswell with maybe the faintest rare pulse of leftover southern hemi swell occasionally peeking through. Southern California was getting a mix of wrap-around local windswell and faint dribbles of leftover southern hemi swell. Hawaii was essentially flat on the North Shore and South Shores with a smattering of local windswell on the East Shore. The Pacific Ocean is in hibernation both north and south with virtually no storms of interest having occurred since the storm that made our last southern hemi swell, and next to nothing forecast for a least a week. Hawaii has a little hope from a series of gales modeled to push northeast off of New Zealand this week, but we're talking producing only 25 ft seas at best, which is the same as nothing for the mainland given the long travel distance and all the decay that will result along the way. And not even any decent windswell is expected on the mainland to fill in the gaps. But Hawaii will have a decent run of tradewind generated windswell, so there is some hope there. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (7/8) for the North Pacific again indicated nothing of interest with a thin flat steam running from over Japan straight into southern British Columbia with no troughs of interest. Winds did not exceed 100 kts, and then only limited to 2 small areas. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast with winds generally 90 kts or less flowing flat (zonally) over the North Pacific on the same track as noted before. Beyond 72 hours a faint trough is modeled developing over the dateline late Tuesday (7/10) with up to 120 kt winds by Wednesday moving gently towards the Gulf of Alaska into Saturday (7/14). Maybe some support for low pressure development, but nothing more. This is part of a interesting pattern that's to develop from purely a intellectual standpoint (more below).
At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1028 mbs remained situated 900 nmiles west of San Francisco California generating the usual summertime pressure gradient off Cape Mendocino resulting in 30 kt north winds fading while trailing south and then southwest down to 15 kts pushing over the Hawaiian Islands. A fair amount of windswell was occurring along the Central California coast with lesser energy wrapping into South CA. Two pockets of weak low pressure were over the North Pacific, one in the far Western Gulf of Alaska and the other off the Kuril Islands tracking east. But neither was of any interest from a swell production standpoint. Suspect the MJO was providing some help (see details below). Over the next 72 hrs high pressure off California is to slide north and try to push inland over Canada, then dissolve, with the pressure gradient it was producing along Cape Mendocino fading with it. Windswell along the California coast to be fading out through Tuesday and gone by Wednesday (7/11). New high pressure is to try and build over the dateline providing a bit of pressure into the Hawaiian Islands starting Monday (7/9), continuing a moderate enhancement of tradewinds and associated windswell through Thursday (7/12).
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (7/8) high pressure at 1028 mbs was hanging 900 nmiles off the coast of San Francisco resulting in the usual enhancement of northerly winds over California waters from Pt Conception northward at 15 kts and up to 30 kts near Cape Mendocino. Local windswell and local northwest winds were the result with no eddy flow in.cgiace just yet. But by Monday AM the high pressure system is to start edging north and the gradient is to pull away from the coast from Pt Arena southward, resulting in a light southerly flow and calmer local winds. That pattern to a.cgiify into next week with no north winds over outer waters, and if anything southwesterly winds developing by late Tuesday continuing into Thursday. The models suggest weak high pressure to again return to the picture late Friday (7/13) though focused well to the south brining a brisk northwesterly flow to southern CA down into Baja for 12 hours, then backing off to the Pt Conception area for the weekend.
Thursdays jetstream charts (7/8) for the South Pacific indicated a strong ridge pushing hard into Antarctica in the Southeast Pacific completely shutting down any possibly of storm production at the oceans surface there. A minimal trough was trying to set up under New Zealand with winds maybe 100 kts pushing northeast, but with only the tiniest opening between it and the big ridge pushing south in the East. Minimal support for gale development here. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (7/11) things to hold most unfavorable in the East while the trough under New Zealand tries to build northward pushing all the way up to the northern branch of the jet south of Tahiti. But winds to remain light in this trough only reaching the 110 kt range. Still, a decent sized area to open up favorable for some gale development. Beyond 72 hours the models suggest improvement with the trough getting reinforcements and the big ridge in the East starting to settle down if not fully fade by next weekend. By Friday a nice patch of 130 kts winds to be pushing steadily northeast under New Zealand merging with the northern branch of the jet near 35S and south of Tahiti, providing a much better defined area supportive of gale development at the oceans surface.
At the surface today no swell producing fetch was evident in the mainland US swell window. Hawaii had the tiniest hope with a small low pressure system at 980 mbs trying to organize east of New Zealand at 50S 150W expected to generate 24 hours of 40 kt winds and 27 ft seas at 47S 155W aimed due north towards Hawaii. This ought to be good for a little pulse of small utility class swell with period at 14-15 secs arriving late Sunday (7/15) and holding for 2 days. Rideable but nothing more. None of this to be rideable on the mainland though. Over the next 72 hours another small low to try and organize southeast of New Zealand Monday (7/9) tracking fast to the northeast with winds 35 kts moving to a point south-southwest of Tahiti by Wednesday AM generating 25 ft seas at 42S 162W Tuesday pushing to 35S 150W by Wednesday. Again this to be too small for anything to result in the mainland but Hawaii could see some small 14 sec period utility swell arriving late Tuesday (7/17) from 180-185 degrees.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest the two weak low pressure system south of the Aleutians to fade out while moving slowly from west to east towards the Gulf of Alaska. But, no swell producing fetch to result. Winds generated by high pressure to die off of California by Wednesday (7/11) with windswell fading. The same is forecast for HAwaii with trades falling back to the normal range by Thursday (7/12), with windswell fading with it.
One point of meteorological interest: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) appears to be moving into the active phase. Give that La Nina is supposedly taking hold, one would not expect much if anything like this to happen, but it is. The Southern Oscillation Index dropped into the negative range starting June 27 and continued strongly negative today (-40) which is pulling the 30 day average negative (-3.5) and the 90 day average as well (0.75). Cooler than average waters are still present over the eastern equator waters of the Pacific, but not as strong as in weeks past. And the trade winds over the equatorial western Pacific have reversed direction, now blowing lightly west to east. This pattern is expected to hold into late July (7/22). Now let's make no mistake and clearly state there is no indication that El Nino is trying to develop (the MJO sometimes helps to jumpstart it), but this does suggest that La Nina may not develop as strong as most of the models suggest, or at least might be delayed it if the MJO continues as modeled. The MJO might also help to spur some tropical activity in the West Pacific initially, then provide a little fuel for the East Pacific later in it's life cycle ( 2 weeks from now). And it might help fuel the development of low pressure in the North Pacific. But putting this into perspective, it doesn't guarantee that any swell producing low pressure systems will develop, and in fact they likely won't given the time of year. But what it does suggest that the possibility for low pressure to form is likely to increase some. Nothing more, nothing less.
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest things dying off again, then resurging some perhaps a next weekend (7/15) with a broad fragmented low possibly developing in the Central Pacific with another stronger system trying to push east from under Australia. Seas of interest (greater than 30 ft) are suggested from both. Though none of this is believable at this early date, it provides some hope for surf in Hawaii and the mainland possibly 2.0-2.5 weeks from now.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table