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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Wednesday, July 7, 2021 4:49 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/5 thru Sun 7/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Targets CA
Steady Stream of South Swell on the Charts

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Wednesday, July 7, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 192 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 6.7 secs from 34 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.0 secs from 191 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs, 69.1 (Topanga 103), 63.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 69.6 (Del Mar 153), 68.9 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.4 ft @ 8.7 secs from 311 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 224 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.6 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.7 secs from 189 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 7.7 secs from 313 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.9 ft @ 16.9 secs from 204 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 53.4 (029), 60.4 degs (SF Bar 142) and 62.4 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (7/7) North and Central CA had waves at waist high or so and warbled if not chopped with steady northwest winds and mushed and not really rideable with fog. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and mushed and warbled and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and line dup and peeling when the rare sets came and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and broken up and soft with some light warble intermixed but with fairly clean surface conditions. Central Orange County had set waves at chest to near head high and lined up with decent form and clean but with some light warbled intermixed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high with some bigger sets and lined up with good form and real clean clean and peeling. North San Diego had sets waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat with some rare waist high sets and clean. The South Shore was still solid with waves head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and peeling and clean. The East Shore was getting short period windchop with waves thigh high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (7/7) California was seeing remnant swell from a gale that formed in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/26) with 41 ft seas aimed east. And also swell was fading from a small secondary gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (6/28) producing 32 ft seas aimed mostly east providing limited swell radiating northeast. But the big story was that swell was still hitting Hawaii solidly from a better storm that developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Tues (6/29) with up to 36 ft seas aimed northeast. and swell from that system is starting to show in California too. Remnants of that system redeveloped in the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (7/2) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed east. And another small system formed over the South Central Pacific Sat-Mon (7/5) with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast. Steady swell is expected with one larger embedded pulse. Another gale is to form in the far Southeast Pacific Wed (7/7) producing up to 25 ft seas aimed east. And a secondary gale to form over the same area on Thurs (7/8) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east. And maybe one last system to weakly form under New Zealand on Fri-Sat (7/10) producing 28-30 ft seas then push across the South Pacific Mon-Tues (7/13) producing 34 ft seas aimed east.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (7/7) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell from previous fetch was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems are being monitored and none are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Thurs (7/8) the usual summertime pressure gradient was in effect producing northwest winds forecast at 20-25 kts early for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA holding all day getting better traction and producing windswell.
  • Fri (7/9) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts limited to North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA holding all day. Smaller but still steady north windswell resulting.
  • Sat (7/10) northwest winds are to be building at 20-25 kts early with a core to 30 kts over North CA and 15 kts for Central CA holding all day. Northwest windswell building some.
  • Sun (7/11) northwest winds to be 20-30 kts for all of North CA early and mostly 10 kts early for Central CA building to 15 kts in the afternoon with northwest windswell up some.
  • Mon (7/12) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for all of North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA holding all day. Northwest windswell building.
  • Tues (7/13) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA early and 15+ kts for Central CA holding all day. Northwest windswell fading slightly.
  • Wed (7/14) northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA fading some in coverage over North Ca in the afternoon and mostly 20+ kts and 15 kts over all of Central CA. Windswell fading some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (7/7) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south over the Central South Pacific down to 62S nearly over the Ross Ice Shelf suppressing gale development there but forming a weak trough under New Zealand but with winds only 70 kts not likely offering support for gale development. And a bit of a trough was trying to develop in the far Southeast Pacific being fed by 160 kts winds originating from the ridge over the Central Pacific perhaps offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough southeast of New Zealand is to slowly build being fed by up to 110 kt south winds early Sat (7/10) offering some limited support for gale development. At the same time the ridge over the Central South Pacific is to build but still feeding energy into the trough on it's eastern perimeter over the Southeast Pacific into Sat (7/10) perhaps supporting gale development there. Beyond 72 hours the ridge over the Central South Pacific is to take over totally shutting down support for gale development over the Central and Southeast Pacific Sat-Tues (7/13). The remnants of the trough southeast of New Zealand are to steadily weaken falling southeast as well moving over the Central South Pacific on Mon (7/12) but winds are to be only 80-90 kts feeding it likely not offering much in terms of support for gale development. And by Wed (7/14) the jet is to be very weak but still configured forming a weak trough over the Central Pacific with a pretty solid ridge crashing into Antarctica over the far Southeast Pacific offering nothing in terms of support for gale development. A downward trend is to set up longterm.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (7/7) residuals swell was hitting California from a gale that developed in the Central South Pacific with 41 ft seas aimed east (see Central South Pacific Gale below). And swell was hitting California from secondary fetch associated with that gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific (see Secondary Southeast Pacific Gale below). Of more interest is a stronger system that formed under New Zealand lifting north (see New Zealand Gale below). Solid swell has already peaked in Hawaii and is building in California.

Over the next 72 hours another gale started building over the Central South Pacific on Tues PM (7/6) with a solid area of 40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 59S 152W aimed east. On Wed AM (7/7) 50-55 kt southwest winds were building over the Southeast Pacific with 32 ft seas at 61.25S 126.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be racing east with 35 kt west winds remaining in the SCal swell window and 35 ft seas at 59.25S 118W midday before moving out of the swell window. Small south angled swell to result.

On Wed PM (7/7) another fetch is to start building over the Central South Pacific with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 55S 155W aimed east. On Thurs AM (7/8) west winds to build to 45 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas building to 30 ft at 58S 138W aimed east. In the evening fetch to build to 55 kts from the west pushing east with seas 38 ft at 60.75S 120W aimed east. Fetch is to build while tracking east well outside the Southern CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.

 

Central South Pacific Storm
Another system developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds over a tiny area with the gale itself pushing east generating 29 ft seas at 58S 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale lifted east-northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 38 ft at 58.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch pushed east fast with southwest winds 50 kts over a building area with seas 40 ft at 58.5S 147.5W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch was collapsing with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 57.25S 136.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 55.5S 128W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. More small swell is pushing northeast.

Southern CA: Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

 

Secondary Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch from the Central South Pacific Storm (above) developed Sun AM (6/27) in the far Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas 28 ft near 58.5S 140W aimed east. In the evening fetch grew from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 55S 131.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/26) fetch was lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54S 123W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale faded with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 26-27 ft at 50S 118W moving east of the CA swell window after that. Some small swell to result for CA.

Southern CA: Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 189 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (6/27) a gale developed under New Zealand with 40-50 kt south wind and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 166.25E aimed north. On Mon AM (6/28) south winds were 40-50 kts just southeast of New Zealand with 36 ft seas at 54.5S 174E aimed north. In the evening south winds were 40 kts solid over a good sized area just southeast of New Zealand with 35 ft seas at 50S 179E aimed north. On Tues AM (6/28) south winds were 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with 31 ft seas at 46S 176W aimed north-northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt south winds are to be fading with 26 ft seas fading at 39S 175.75W aimed north. This system is to be gone after that with it's remnants tracking east. Swell is radiating northeast towards HI and CA.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Wed (7/7) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/9) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Remnants of the New Zealand Gale (above) started redeveloping over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs AM (7/1) producing 30-35 kt southwest winds over a broad area with seas building to 28 ft at 57S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds were pushing northeast with 29 ft seas at 55S 131W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (7/2) 35-40 kt west winds were racing east nearly out of the CA swell window with 32 ft seas still in the window at 54.5S 120W aimed east. Fetch faded out in the evening with residual seas fading from 26-27 ft at 52S 120W aimed northeast. Some minimal swell to result for CA and better for South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/9) building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). On Sat (7/10) swell is to be building to 1.7 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sun (7/11) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (7/12) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/13) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (7/11) at 1.7 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (7/12) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/13) at 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

 

South Central Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (7/3) a small gale started building just off the Ross Ice Shelf lifting northeast with 40-45 kts west winds and seas barely 30 ft over a small area lifting east-northeast at 62S 162W. In the evening 40 kt west winds were pushing east-northeast with 30-31 ft seas at 60.5S 147W aimed east-northeast. Fetch back-built on Sun AM at 40 kts aimed northeast with 30 ft seas at 59S 140W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts over a decent sized area aimed northeast with 28 ft seas fading at 55S 133.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/5) 35-40 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with 26 ft seas at 51S 130.5W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 35-40 kts over a broad area with 29 ft seas at 49.75S 121.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/6) fetch was moving well east of the SCal swell window at 35 kts over a large area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas on the edge of the CA swell window at 45S 119W aimed northeast. This system was east of the swell window after that.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/13) building to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building into Wed (7/14) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft) mid-day and holding. Swell fading on Thurs (7/15) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/16) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/13) building to 1.9 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building into Wed (7/14) at 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft) later. Swell fading on Thurs (7/15) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/16) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/17) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another small system is to develop just southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/8) producing 35-40 kts south winds and seas 27 ft over a small area at 50.5S 175E aimed northeast. Fetch is to hold in the evening with 28 ft seas at 51S 177W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/8) 35-40 kt south fetch is to continue over a small area southeast of New Zealand with 26 ft seas at 52S 175W aimed northeast. This system is to possibly persist into Sunday (7/11) near New Zealand then falling southeast and fading. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues Weakly near Ecuador - Model Suggest La Nina Returning
Summary - 2 Kevin Waves were weakly erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd pushing east behind them. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline till Sept with solid east anomalies from the dateline eastward setting up blocking high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall and possibly into Winter.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/7) modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA and the entirety of the equatorial PAcific. The forecast calls for east anomalies peaking on 7/9 over the dateline at strong status then fading some to moderate plus strength and holding through the end of the model run on 7/14 focused in the core of the KWGA and filling the equatorial Pacific to a point south of California.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/6) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects a weak Active pattern starting to slowly develop over the West KWGA 10 days out and then filling the KWGA at day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a modest Inactive pattern building on day 5 of the model run then collapsing turning dead neutral on day 10 and holding on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/7) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Indian Ocean today and is to track east to the Central Maritime Continent on day 15 at exceedingly weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the East Maritime Continent and exceedingly weak on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/6) A strong Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the East Pacific with residuals extending west to the KWGA today. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to push east moving into Central America on 7/11 with no dry air remaining by 7/21. The Active Phase is to finally be building over the KWGA on 7/16 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/15 while a new Inactive Phase starts building strong over the Maritime Continent.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/6) This model depicts an Inactive MJO signal over the Central and East Pacific today with weak east anomalies trying to build over the whole of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies developing over the while of the equatorial Pacific on 7/8 holding through 7/13. After that neutral to weak west anomalies are forecast setting up mainly over the dateline 7/14-7/20 with a weak Active signal setting up over the dateline. But starting 7/21 east anomalies are to again take hold over the KWGA at weak status holding through the end of the model run on 8/3.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/7 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Inactive MJO was controlling the KWGA with weak east over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the weak Inactive MJO signal is to hold through 8/15 with weak east anomalies in the KWGA. On 7/17-7/28 a weak Active Phase is to progress across the KWGA with mostly east anomalies over the KWGA except for west anomalies over the dateline 7/14-7/22. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 7/31-8/15 with mostly weak east anomalies in play over the KWGA But starting 8/6 a solid Active Phase of the MJO is to be building filling the KWGA through 9/17 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies setting up on the dateline and points east of there in association with the previous Inactive Phase and holding for the foreseeable future. After that a weak Inactive MJO pattern is forecast starting 9/17 with east anomalies starting to fill the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/4. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the East Pacific (with one contour line) but a low pressure bias over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line shifted dramatically east to 130W on 6/30 and is to hold through 8/10 then back-build west to 170E and easing west to 150E at the end of the model run. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position till 8/8, then collapse west on 8/15 west of the KWGA and out of the Pacific becoming recentered over the Maritime Continent like last winter. This suggest a return to some flavor of a La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall with east anomalies and high a pressure bias effectively over the dateline and points east of there. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding slightly to 154W. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east and barely reaching to Ecuador. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east in a single stream under the dateline and into Ecuador building to +2 degs C from 120W and points east of there. This suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. And the +2 deg anomalies in the far East Pacific were indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 indicates much the same but with a new Kelvin Wave pushing east to 135W and 2 previous Kelvin Waves pushing east from 130W into Central America. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/2) Sea heights were steady over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms mainly in 2 big pockets with one west of the dateline and the second between 125W-155W. La Nina is gone but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was established.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/6) The latest images depict steadily warm water on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with stronger warming along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. But a pocket of cooling was also indicated at 115W. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/6): 3 pockets of warming were along the equator from Ecuador west to 120W with weaker interspersed pockets of weaker cooling. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (7/60) A distinct flow of warmer than normal water was on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A weaker area of generic warm was west of Peru and Chile. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/7) Today's temps were falling some at -0.174 after previously peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/1) Today temps were falling at +0.179 after peaking at +0.332 on 7/1,the highest in a year. they previously peaked at +0.224 on 6/15. Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/7) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising since early Nov when they were -1.25 degs building to -0.01 degs in mid-June and then holding at -0.05 degs. The forecast indicates that by mid-July temps are to start at a steady decline at -0.10 degs falling to -1.00 degs in mid-Sept dropping to -1.4 degs in mid-Oct and generally holding to mid-Jan (at -1.25 degs) before rising to -0.60 degs in mid March 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this F and Winter. here is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.10 degs today, and are to fade slowly -0.30 degrees in Sept and stabilizing there into December, then rising to +0.10 in later Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting we are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (7/7): The daily index was rising +11.33. The 30 day average was rising steadily to +5.65 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +2.94 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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