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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 4, 2023 1:00 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/3 thru Sun 7/9
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

1st SE Pac Swell Hitting CA
Weak New Zealand Gale Developing

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 7.6 secs from 164 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.1 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down. Using Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 6.3 secs from 80 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.4 secs from 184 degrees. Wind southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 62.2 degs, 65.5 (Topanga 103), 61.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.7 (Del Mar 153), 65.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.9 secs from 180 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.2 ft @ 9.6 secs from 240 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.4 secs from 189 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.5 secs from 183 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.3 secs from 183 degrees. Water temperature was 66.0 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 9.2 secs from 324 degrees and southern hemi swell 2.0 ft @ 15.9 secs from 189 degrees. Wind south at 2-6 kts (46026). Water temp 52.2 (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.9 (SF Bar 142), 60.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/4) North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high and warbled with light south winds but not chopped and with moderate high overcast. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean but soft and weak with clear skies. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and up to chest high on the peaks of the sets and clean with decent form when the sets came. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up with decent form but with northwest lump on it from local winds. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high coming from the south and pretty soft but clean with some northwest texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high or so and clean and lined up with decent form when the rare sets came. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up with decent form and clean with some occasional semi-real sets. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with much short period side shore lump. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to near waist high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/4) in California swell was hitting from the first of two gales that developed in the far Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/26) producing a tiny area of 31 ft seas aimed north. A second gale developed right behind on Mon-Wed (6/27) further south with 33 ft seas aimed north before moving east of the CA swell window producing more swell. No swell was hitting Hawaii. But a gale is forecast just east of New Zealand Tues-Wed (7/5) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast. Perhaps the Southwest Pacific is to open up a bit beyond.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/4) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated relative to Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
N
o tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (7/5) northwest winds to be 20 kts off of Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow south of Pt Reyes or northwest at 5 kts. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Minimal northwest windswell possible.
  • Thurs AM (7/6) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts limited to North CA with northwest winds 10-15 kts over Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
  • Fri AM (7/7) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Minimal windswell generation is forecast.
  • Sat AM (7/8) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA too. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts in North CA and 15-20 kts in pockets for Central CA.
  • Sun AM (7/9) northwest winds are to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and mostly 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Incessant high pressure is to be in control.
  • Mon AM (7/10) northwest winds rebuild at 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell building some.
  • Tues AM (7/11) northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. Windswell building some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection: 14,000 + ft steady from here forward. Summer has arrived in the mountains (starting 7/1). Solid snowmelt occurring.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/4) the jetstream was consolidated over the Southwest Pacific forming a trough pushing north over New Zealand being fed by 130 kts winds offering good support for gale development. East of there starting at 155W the jet was falling hard south over Antarctic ice forming a ridge and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to continue lifting northeast peaking Tues afternoon (7/4) being fed by 140 kt winds lifting northeast while easing off to the east some offering continued support for gale development before weakening on Thurs (7/6) no longer supporting gale formation. The ridge in the east is to fade out. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/10) there some signs that a new trough might start building over New Zealand being fed by 150 kts winds mainly fueled by the northern branch of the jet. And a new ridge is to build in the east starting at 150W preventing gale development there. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/4) swell from the first of two gales previously in the far Southeast Pacific was showing along the California coast(see First and Second Southern Pacific Gales below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale started developing just south and east of New Zealand on Mon PM (7/3) producing 30-35 kt southwest winds over a decent sized area with seas building from 23 ft at 48.25S 166.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/4) the gale was building in coverage with 30-35 kts southwest winds aimed northeast and seas 25 ft at 50.5S 170E aimed northeast trying to get sufficient traction on the oceans surface. In the evening fetch is to consolidate more at 35-40 kts from the southwest while lifting northeast with seas 25 ft at 47.5S 178W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (7/5) 30-35 kt southwest winds continue nearly stationary just east of New Zealand with seas 28 ft at 45.5S 166.5W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts and shrinking in coverage with seas 25 ft at 44.75S 158W aimed northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Maybe some small swell to result pushing northeast.

 

First Southeast Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (6/24) producing south winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 27 ft at 55.5S 137W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/25) south winds were 45 kts over a tiny area aimed north and lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 51.5S 131.75W aimed north. In the evening fetch was lifting north and fading from 35-40 kts over a tiny area with seas 30 ft at 46.25S 127.75W aimed north. On Mon AM (7/26) south fetch was rebuilding to 40 kts on the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with 27 ft seas fading at 44.25S 119.75W aimed north. In the evening 40 kt southwest fetch eased east of the CA swell window with seas 33 ft at 51.5S 115.5W and out of the CA swell window. Swell is radiating north.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). On Mon (7/3) swell is to be building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (7/4) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell slowly fading on Wed (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/3) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (7/4) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell slowly fading on Wed (7/5) ft at 2.1 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/6) from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

 

Second Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (6/26) another small gale developed deep in the Southeast Pacific with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 23 ft at 60.75S 142.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south fetch built while lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 60S 133W. On Tues AM (6/27) the gale was lifting northeast with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 33 ft at 56S 127W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was tracking northeast while fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 50.25S 123W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/28) fetch held at 35 kts from the southwest with seas 26 ft at 44S 119.5W aimed northeast on the edge of the California swell window. The gale faded out from there.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/5) building to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). On Thurs (7/6) swell is to be building to 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/7) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell slowly fading on Sat (7/8) from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 183 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/5) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). On Thurs (7/6) swell is to be building to 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/7) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell slowly fading on Sat (7/8) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft) early. Dribbles on Sun (7/9) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

El Nino Stalled - Inactive MJO In-Place
Kelvin Wave #4 Is Erupting - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Holding Steady in Coverage

1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds from MJO #6 likely have produced another Kelvin Wave. But the MJO has stalled now. Sea Surface Temperatures are stable but not warming or expanding. And the SOI is giving up ground. The MJO machine has faltered and the atmosphere is showing no signs of becoming coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/4) Modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Modest east anomalies are to hold through 7/12 but with west anomalies starting to get traction on 7/6 at 130E then building in coverage with west anomalies filling the KWGA on 7/13. West anomalies are to build to strong status on 7/14 filing the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/20.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/3) A modest Inactive MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a modest Inactive MJO pattern in control on day 5 of the model run holding through day 10 then fading to weak status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates a modest Inactive MJO holding through day 5 of the model run then fading with the Active Phase in control on day 15..
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/4) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to ease east to the Central Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates it moving to the East Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/4) A modest Inactive (dry) pattern was over the East Pacific with a weak Active (wet) pattern over the West Pacific today. The forecast has the Inactive Phase (dry air) pushing slowly east while fading and gone off Ecuador on 7/19 while the Active Phase (wet air) slowly moves east over the KWGA building some through 7/24 then continuing east while fading over the East Pacific and gone by 8/8. A modest Inactive signal (dry air) is to start building over the KWGA on 8/3 easing east and filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 8/13 and very weak.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/3)
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was indicated over the KWGA with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to hold through 7/12 with weak east anomalies in control of the KWGA. But west anomalies are to start building in coverage and strength in the far west KWGA on 7/8 steadily building, filling the KWGA by 7/13 and at near strong status as early as 7/11. Strong West anomalies to hold through 7/20 but then with weak to modest west anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/31.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(7/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was holding over the KWGA with neutral to weak east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to slowly traverse the KWGA finally gone on 7/17 but with west anomalies weakly developing on 7/11 and building to moderate to strong status on 7/14. The Active Phase is to start building 7/13 in the west and filling the KWGA by 7/18 and then holding through 9/6. West anomalies are to build during this window and moderate if not strong through the Active Phase. The Inactive Phase is to follow 8/27 through the end of the model run on 9/31 but with modest west anomalies still in control if not strong in pockets. Basically west anomalies are forecast 7/10 and beyond. El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 125W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east to 120W in Aug and tracking slowly east from there and all but gone by late Sept. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 170E with 3 contour lines and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 145W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A more gradual push east is occurring and is to continue into 7/18 with it's leading edge then stalling at 135W filling most of the Pacific with the third contour line holding till 8/17. The primarily contours leading edge is to be locked at 135W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears a strong El Nino is developing.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/4) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and backtracking to 173E (previously 180W) with the 29 degree isotherm backtracking from 157W to 160W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 124W (previously 120W). The 26 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was stable at 65 m down in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started at 155W (previously 165W) pushing east with +3-7 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 142W. +6 degree anomalies were from 115W into Ecuador. Amazing but troubling in that no new warm water pockets other than the base warm state at +1 degs were in the West Pacific, meaning no new Kelvin Wave were in flight. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 indicates a huge very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3-4 erupting from 165W into Ecuador. A new Kelvin Wave was building on the dateline between 140E to 180W at +2-3 degs (Kelvin Wave #5) while another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 120E at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #6). No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms solid connected to a +10 cms pocket from 130W east into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 170E and east of there. Some decline in temps were occurring west of the dateline but still +0.5 to +1.0 degrees. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/3) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and building the past few days with lesser but still serious heat extending up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja with a stable tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching west beyond the dateline with a warmer core to 137W. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and a Springtime upwelling pattern in control there and likely be reinforced over the next week.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/3): Weak warming was in a thin stream on the equator from Ecuador to 105W. A neutral pattern was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific. It's not surprising there's no clear signal of warming along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get much warmer. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (7/3) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in a few pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are rising from +2.451 to +2.906 today after building/peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/4) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps building at +0.843 after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps were +0.45 degs today.
Forecast (7/4) - Temps are above In the El Nino range at +0.9 degs and are to hold into mid July then start rising again, to +1.70 degs in Oct-Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling from +0.95 degs in June to +0.75 degs in mid-July then slowly rising to +1.30 degs in Nov/Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 16, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.120 degs today and it's the 4th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.298 in July and up to +1.466 degrees in Oct then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.761 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models but 3 of 17 are higher still.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/4) the Daily Index was positive at +9.29 and has been positive the last 12 days. It had been negative 11 days prior. It was positive 5 days previous to that then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at +0.95. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -5.65 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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