Thursday, July 1, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.6 secs from 184 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 6.2 secs from 46 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 206 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 66.6 degs, 68.2 (Topanga 103), 66.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.7 (Del Mar 153), 66.2 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.4 ft @ 8.7 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.8 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.8 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.9 secs from 197 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 8.2 secs from 303 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.9 ft @ 15.6 secs from 200 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was west at 4-8 kts. Water temp 55.0 (029), 58.3 degs (SF Bar 142) and 59.9 degs (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (7/1) North and Central CA had waves at waist to maybe chest high and warbled with light south wind producing a little bump with June Gloom in control. Protected breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and clean and weakly lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high or so and lined up and clean with decent form with no wind but weak. Central Orange County had set waves at waist to near shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high with rare head high peaks and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with some surface texture. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high or so and and lined up and clean and beautiful but generally weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting an unexpected bump in swell with set waves 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and peeling and clean. The East Shore was getting short period windchop with waves thigh to waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (7/1) California was seeing swell from a small system that developed under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/23) producing up to 29 ft seas tracking northeast. Remnants of that swell are hitting better than expected in Hawaii too. A stronger system formed in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/26) with 41 ft seas aimed east. Swell is radiating north towards CA, Central and South America. A small secondary gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (6/28) producing 32 ft seas aimed mostly east providing limited swell radiating northeast. A better storm developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Tues (6/29) with up to 36 ft seas aimed northeast. Some reasonable sized swell is possible mainly for Hawaii. Remnants of that system are to redevelop in the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (7/2) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed east. And another system to follow over the South Central Pacific Sat-Mon (7/5) with up to 29 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe a small system is to develop under New Zealand Mon-Wed (7/7) with 29 ft seas aimed northeast. A steady small swell pattern is expected with one larger embedded pulse.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (7/1) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell from previous fetch was in the water. But the tropics hold some minimal hope. See the Tropical Update below.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
On Thurs AM (6/24) Tropical Storm Champi was 900 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan tracking north with winds 45 kts. Champi continued on this heading while building with winds to 60 kts in the evening heading north and then to typhoon status at 65 kts on Fri AM (6/25) and holding into Sat AM positioned 500 nmiles south of Tokyo. Then after that Champi started to weaken while making a slowly but steady turn to the northeast. On Sun AM (6/27) winds were down to 35 kts with Champi positioned 500 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo heading north-northeast. By Mon AM (6/28) Champi was down to weak tropical storm status accelerating off to the northeast 600 nmiles east of Misawa Japan (the north island). No swell of interest was expected from this part of the storm relative to Hawaii or the mainland. But the remnants of this system were trying to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Tues (6/29) but not producing seas even to 18 ft. But on Thurs AM (7/1) this system was stationary in the Northwestern Gulf producing 30 kt west winds over a decent sized area with seas to 19 ft at 48.25N 173.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push east slightly still at 30 kts with seas 19 ft at 49.5N 166.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (7/2) fetch is to be fading from barely 30 kts with seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 18 ft at 51.75N 160.25W. Some minimal windswell could result for HI and CA.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.6 ft @ 11-12 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/4) from 1.2 ft @ 11 secs(1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/6) building to 2.4 ft @ 12 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading late. Residuals early Wed (7/7) fading from 1.8 ft @ 10 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (7/2) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts over and just off of Cape Mendocino down to Bodega Bay early and 10-15 kts down to Pt Conception and fading through the day to 20 kts isolated to Cape Mendocino later and 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Northwest winds are to hold at 20 kts off the Pacific Northwest all day. Windswell fading some.
- Sat (7/3) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena early and northwest 10 kts south of there and fading to 10 kts everywhere in the afternoon. Windswell fading out.
- Sun (7/4) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over Cape Mendocino but otherwise 5-10 kts south of there. Northwest winds fading to 15 kts for Cape Mendocino later and building to 15 kts over Pt Conception in the afternoon but otherwise weak. No windswell production forecast.
- Mon (7/5) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the remainder of North and Central CA early and holding all day. Bare minimal windswell production expected.
- Tues (7/6) northwest winds are forecast rebuilding at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA early and holding through the day. Limited windswell building some.
- Wed (7/7) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA early and holding through the day but fading in coverage. Limited windswell fading.
- Thurs (7/8) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts early from southern Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception. Minimal windswell resulting.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.
Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Thursday (7/1) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south some under New Zealand down to 61S nearly over the Ross Ice Shelf extending to nearly the Central South Pacific then rising northeast forming a generic trough from 140W and points east of there being fed by 100 kts winds and merging with the northern branch of the jet pushing winds to 180 kts offering decent support for gale development over the Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to lifting northeast some while tracking east moving east of the Southern CA swell window early Sat (7/3) no longer supporting gale development. Beyond 72 hours a secondary trough is to again set up in the Southeast Pacific starting Sun AM (7/40 with 100-110 kts winds lifting northeast and merging with the northern branch of the jet offering good support for gale development then pushing east and out of even the Southern CA swell window later Mon (7/5). At that time a solid ridge is to be building over the Southwest Pacific sweeping east reaching down to 63S and almost over the Ross Ice Shelf. By Thurs (7/8) the ridge is to be fading near New Zealand but only a weak jetstream pattern is forecast offering nothing obvious to support gale development.
On Thursday (7/1) swell from a weak gale that formed south of New Zealand was still hitting Hawaii and weakly hitting CA (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And a gale developed in the Central South Pacific after that with 41 ft seas aimed east producing swell pushing towards CA down into South America (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Secondary fetch from that system developed in the Southeast Pacific producing small swell radiating north towards CA (see Secondary Southeast Pacific Gale below). And then a stronger system formed under New Zealand lifting north targeting mainly HI (see New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours remnants of the New Zealand Gale (see below) started redeveloping over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs AM (7/1) producing 30-35 kt southwest winds over a broad area with seas building to 28 ft at 57S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds are to be pushing east with 29-30 ft seas at 56S 130W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (7/2) 40 kt west winds are to be racing east nearly out of the CA swell window with 32 ft seas still in the window at 53.5S 120.5W aimed east. fetch fading in the evening with residual seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 120W aimed northeast. Some minimal swell to result for CA and better for South America.
Weak New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 59.25S 158.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds were tracking northeast at 35-40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 28 ft at 57.25S 171E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 26 ft at 55.75S 176.5E aimed northeast. Residual fetch persisted into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas fading at 59.5S 171W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell for HI is possible.
Southern CA: Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees
North CA: Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs late AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
Central South Pacific Storm
Another system developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds over a tiny area with the gale itself pushing east generating 29 ft seas at 58S 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale lifted east-northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 38 ft at 58.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch pushed east fast with southwest winds 50 kts over a building area with seas 40 ft at 58.5S 147.5W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch was collapsing with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 57.25S 136.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 55.5S 128W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. More small swell is pushing northeast.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees
Secondary Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch from the Central South Pacific Storm (above) developed Sun AM (6/27) in the far Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas 28 ft near 58.5S 140W aimed east. In the evening fetch grew from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 55S 131.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/26) fetch was lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54S 123W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale faded with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 26-27 ft at 50S 118W moving east of the CA swell window after that. Some small swell to result for CA.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/6) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 190 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/6) at 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (7/7) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) holding at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 189 degrees
New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (6/27) a gale developed under New Zealand with 40-50 kt south wind and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 166.25E aimed north. On Mon AM (6/28) south winds were 40-50 kts just southeast of New Zealand with 36 ft seas at 54.5S 174E aimed north. In the evening south winds were 40 kts solid over a good sized area just southeast of New Zealand with 35 ft seas at 50S 179E aimed north. On Tues AM (6/28) south winds were 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with 31 ft seas at 46S 176W aimed north-northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt south winds are to be fading with 26 ft seas fading at 39S 175.75W aimed north. This system is to be gone after that with it's remnants tracking east. Swell is radiating northeast towards HI and CA.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/4) at sunset at 1.0 ft @ 20 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (7/5) to 2.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late AM (3.5-4.0 ft) and holding. Swell holding on Tues (7/6) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (7/7) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (7/8) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/9) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Thurs (7/8) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/9) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/10) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours yet another small gale is forecast developing over the deep South Central Pacific on Sat AM (7/3) producing 45 kt southwest winds on the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 62S 160W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds to to be lifting northeast with 29 ft seas at 60S 147W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/4) 35-40 kt southwest winds to be moving over the Southeast Pacific producing 26-27 ft seas at 58.25S 139.75W aimed northeast. In the evening secondary fetch is to develop at 35-40 kts lifting hard northeast producing 29 ft seas at 54.25S 134.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/5) southwest winds are to be fading from 35 kts over a broad area aimed northeast with 28 ft seas at 49S 131W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds at 30-35 kts to be moving east of the CA swell window with 27 ft seas at 45S 120W aimed northeast. This system is to move east of the CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.
And yet another system is to develop southeast of New Zealand on Mon-Tues (7/6) with 26-30 ft sea aimed east.
Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues Weakly near Ecuador - Model Suggest Return of La Nina
Summary - 2 Kevin Waves were weakly erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd pushing east behind them. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there hinting at blocking high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall - a decidedly mixed pattern.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/1) weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the equatorial Pacific by 7/6 and then building to strong status through the end of the model run on 7/8 focused over the dateline.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/30) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase weakening significantly on day 5 then fading quickly and all but gone on day 10 with a neutral MJO pattern indicated on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing but with the Active Phase building solidly over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. .
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/1) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at exceedingly weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the East Maritime Continent and building to modest status on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/30) A fragmented Inactive Phase (dry air) was weakly indicated filling the Pacific today. It is to push east moving over the East Pacific and into Central America on 7/5 with remnant energy pushing east over the Pacific through 7/15. The Active Phase is to finally be building over the KWGA on 7/15 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/9 while a new Inactive Phase starts to move over the West KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/30) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak anomalies in the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month but with weak west anomalies building over the KWGA 7/2 tracking east and out of the KWGA through 7/14. Then light east anomalies are to start building over the West KWGA on 7/16 and building in coverage while tracking east filling the KWGA by 7/19 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/28 though weakening in the far west.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/1 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Inactive MJO was developing in the west KWGA with a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the weak Inactive MJO signal is to hold through 8/8 with weak west anomalies in the KWGA into 7/11 then modest east anomalies taking the upper hand. Starting 8/4 a solid Active Phase of the MJO is to be building filling the KWGA 8/12 through 9/5 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies setting up on the dateline at the same time and holding for the foreseeable future. After that a modest Inactive MJO pattern is forecast starting 9/19 but with west anomalies persisting through the end of the model run on 9/27. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/2 holding through 8/8 then back-building west to the dateline if not 170E and holding beyond. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position till 7/20, then steadily retrograding to 135E by 8/10 and effectively out of the Pacific becoming centered again over the Maritime Continent. This suggest a return to some flavor of a La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall with east anomalies and high a pressure bias effectively over the dateline and points east of there. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 152W. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. except now no longer reaching Ecuador, extending east only to 97W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east in a single stream under the dateline and into Ecuador building to +2 degs C from 110W and points east of there. This suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. And the +2 deg anomalies in the far East Pacific were indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 indicates much the same but with a new Kelvin Wave pushing east to 140W and 2 previous Kelvin Waves pushing east from 130W into Central America. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Sea heights were steady over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms mainly in tiny pockets east of the dateline and a broader but fading pocket west of the dateline. La Nina is gone but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was established.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/30) The latest images depict steadily warm water on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with stronger warming along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/30): Pockets of warming were along the equator from Ecuador west to 120W with weaker interspersed pockets of weaker cooling. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/30) A distinct flow of warmer than normal water was on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A weaker area of generic warm was west of Peru and Chile. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/1) Today's temps were rising some to -0.081 after declining weakly the past week or so, after previously peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/1) Today temps were rising up to +0.332 the highest in a year after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15. Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/1) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov when they were -1.25 degs up to -0.01 degs in mid-June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a steady decline falling to -1.00 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.50 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.10 degs today, and are to fade slowly -0.30 degrees in Sept and stabilizing there into December, then rising to +0.10 in later Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting we are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (7/1): The daily index was rising hard at +31.45. The 30 day average was rising to +1.13 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +2.06 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table