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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, June 27, 2021 4:00 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/28 thru Sun 7/4

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Long Run of Small Swell for CA
Stronger New Zealand Swell Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, June 27, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 12.3 secs from 179 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 10.5 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 14.1 secs from 215 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs, 68.3 (Topanga 103), 63.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 67.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.7 secs from 211 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.0 secs from 202 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 10.3 secs from 292 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 12-15 kts. Water temp 56.3 (029), 59.9 degs (SF Bar 142) and 60.6 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/27) North and Central CA had waves at waist high and warbled and mush and pretty gutless with modest northwest winds. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up on the sets and fairly clean with decent form. Central Orange County had set waves at shoulder high on the sets and lined up if not closed out but with a fair amount of texture on it and a bit crumbled. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to near head high and lined up and peeling and clean but a bit weak and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets waves at chest to head high on the bigger sets and lined and clean. Hawaii's North Shore had some decent late season swell with waves 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean and peeling. The South Shore was still getting swell with set waves to head high and lined up and peeling and clean but inconsistent. The East Shore was getting no real swell with waves thigh high and soft and textured from light to modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (6/27) California was seeing swell from a small gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 36 ft seas aimed east if not southeast. And Hawaii was getting solid background swell from a nondescript system that passed under New Zealand on Sun (6/20) with seas briefly to 30 ft. A small system developed under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/23) producing up to 29 ft seas tracking northeast. That swell is tracking towards Hawaii. A better one formed in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/26) with 41 ft seas aimed east. Swell is radiating north towards CA, Central and South America. A small gale is forecast to develop in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (6/28) providing a change a swell production. And a better storm is forecast forming under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Tues (6/29) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast. Some solid surf is possible.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/27) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell from previous fetch was in the water. But the tropics are holding some hope. See the Tropical Update below.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Thurs AM (6/24) Tropical Storm Champi was 900 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan tracking north with winds 45 kts. Champi continued on this heading while building with winds to 60 kts in the evening heading north and then to 65 kts on Fri AM (6/25) and holding into Sat AM positioned 500 nmiles south of Tokyo. Then after that Champi started to weaken while making a slowly but steady turn to the northeast. On Sun AM (6/27) winds were down to 35 kts with Champi positioned 500 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo heading north-northeast. By Mon AM (6/28) Champi is to be down to weak tropical storm status accelerating off to the northeast 600 nmiles east of Misawa Japan (the north island). The GFS model has remnants of this system trying to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Tues (6/29) but not producing seas even to 18 ft. But on Thurs (7/1) this system is to be stationary in the Northwestern Gulf theoretically producing 30 kt west winds with seas to 17 ft at 45.5N 173.5W aimed east. Perhaps some swell could result for HI and CA.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (6/28) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA holding all day. Some windswell production is possible.
  • Tues (6/29) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 20 kts south of there into Central CA building to 20 kts for most of North and Central CA in the afternoon. 20-25 kts north winds are to be off the coast of British Columbia down to Oregon. Windswell building incrementally.
  • Wed (6/30) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA fading some in the afternoon for Central CA but 20 kts solid for North CA and 20+ kts off all the PAcific Northwest. Windswell building.
  • Thurs (7/1) northwest winds re forecast at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early but otherwise 10 kts nearshore down into Central CA and holding all day. North winds are to still be 20 kts off the Pacific Northwest. Windswell holding.
  • Fri (7/2) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena but otherwise 10 kts down to Pt Conception and fading through the day. Windswell fading.
  • Sat (7/3) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10 kts south of there and fading to 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino later. Windswell fading.
  • Sun (7/4) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts , strongest over Cape Mendocino and Pt COnception and lighter (10 kts) in between. No windswell production forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (6/27) the influential southern branch of the jet was producing a trough under New Zealand being fed by 130 kts winds reaching to a point just over the southern tip of New Zealand offering good support for gale development. East of there then jet was falling southeast forming a bit of a ridge but then a second trough was developing over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 110 kts winds also offering good support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to push east into Tues (6/29) still offering good support for gale development before fading later in the day. And the trough over the Southeast Pacific is to push east and out of the California swell window early Tues (6/29) while fading. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (7/1) remnants of the New Zealand trough are to be moving over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 110 kt winds offering some good support for gale development and that trough building into late Fri (7/2) before moving east of the California swell window. At that time a solid ridge is to be building over the whole South Pacific shutting down support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (6/27) small swell was hitting California originating from a secondary fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) aimed somewhat towards the US West Coast. A weak gale formed south of New Zealand possibly setting up small swell for Hawaii (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And a gale developed in the Central South Pacific after that producing swell pushing towards CA down into South America.

Over the next 72 hours secondary fetch from the Central South Pacific Storm (below) is to develop Sun AM (6/27) in the far Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas 28 ft near 58.5S 140W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to growing from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 30 ft at 56S 131W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/26) fetch is to lift northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54S 123W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to fade with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 50S 118W moving east of the CA swell window after that. Some small swell to result for CA.

Also starting Sun PM (6/27) a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand with 40-50 kt south wind and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 166.25E aimed north. On Mon AM (6/28) south winds are to build to 40-50 kts just southeast of New Zealand with 37 ft seas at 54.5S 174E aimed north. In the evening south winds are to be 40 kts solid over a good sized area just southeast of New Zealand with 37 ft seas at 50S 179W aimed north. On Tues AM (6/28) south winds to be 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with 33 ft seas at 45S 179W aimed north. In the evening 40 kt south winds to continue with 29 ft seas fading at 56S 174W aimed north. On Wed AM (6/30) south winds are to be 40-45 kts over a small area over the Central South Pacific with seas fading from 27 ft at 55S 165W aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the southwest with seas 29 ft at 58S 152W aimed north. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch associated with the South Central Pacific Gale (above) developed Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch built Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 135.75W aimed east. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds were aimed northeast while falling south with seas 36 ft at 56.5S 122.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch was in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 31 ft seas at 57.5S 119W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.

Southern CA: Swell pulsing some on Sun (6/27) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/27) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 59.25S 158.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds were tracking northeast at 35-40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 28 ft at 57.25S 171E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 26 ft at 55.75S 176.5E aimed northeast. Residual fetch persisted into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas fading at 59.5S 171W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell for HI is possible.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/28) building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (6/29) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/30) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Wed (6/30) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft) mid-day. Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Wed (6/30) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Thurs (7/1) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs late AM (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/2) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/3) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

 

Central South Pacific Storm
Another system developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds over a tiny area with the gale itself pushing east generating 29 ft seas at 58S 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale lifted east-northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 38 ft at 58.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch pushed east fast with southwest winds 50 kts over a building area with seas 40 ft at 58.5S 147.5W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch was collapsing with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 57.25S 136.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 55.5S 128W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. More small swell is pushing northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building slowly on Sun (7/4) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (7/5) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/6) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet more swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring Weakly near Ecuador - SOI Neutral and Stable
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves is weakly erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd possibly developing in the west. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there hinting at strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/27) weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for more of the same with weak east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run possibly building to moderate status on 7/4.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/26) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was indicated nearly filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase holding on day 5 then fading quickly on day 10 and gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over North Africa today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the West Maritime Continent at weak status on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/26) A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the Central Pacific and the dateline today. It is to push east moving over the East Pacific and into Central America on 7/13 with a second weaker pulse of the Inactive Phase developing over the KWGA on 7/6 pushing east and fading over the East Pacific on 7/21. The Active Phase is to be building over the KWGA on 7/23 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/26) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak west and east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with weak west anomalies in the KWGA through 7/12. Then light east anomalies are to start building over the West KWGA on 7/10 and building in coverage filling the KWGA by 7/17 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/27 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today no coherent MJO was present with a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to set up 7/1-8/5 with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA but with east anomalies taking the upper hand 7/13-7/28. Starting 7/22 a semi solid Active Phase of the MJO is to start filling the KWGA through 9/5 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies setting up starting 7/21 from the dateline eastward and building into 8/22 at solid status and holding through the end of the model run. After that a modest Inactive MJO pattern is forecast starting 8/30 with west anomalies persisting through the end of the model run on 9/24. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/2 holding through 8/5 then back-building west to the dateline if not 170E and holding. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position to 7/21, then quickly retrograding to 130E on 8/14 and effectively out of the Pacific becoming centered again over the Maritime Continent. This suggest a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 179W and the 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 155W. The 24 deg isotherm was stable pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east across the dateline to 150W suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. Also +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 140W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 115W and points east of there indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates much the same with a new Kelvin Wave pushing east to 150W and a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing east from 135W into Central America. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Sea heights are fading over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms mainly in tiny pockets east of the dateline and a broader pocket west of the dateline. La Nina is gone but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was getting established.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/26) The latest images depict steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with some stronger warming along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/26): Pockets of weak cooling were along the equator from Ecuador west to 110W. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/26) A distinct flow of warmer than normal waters were on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A weaker area of generic warm was west of Peru and Chile. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/27) Today's temps were falling to -0.180 after peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/27) Today temps were rising up to +0.260 the highest in a year after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/27) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to -0.05 degs in mid-June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a steady decline falling to -0.70 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.35 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.10 degs today, and are to fade slowly -0.30 degrees in Sept and stabilizing there into December, then rising to +0.10 in later Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting we are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/27): The daily index was falling at -5.62. The 30 day average was rising to -1.24 after falling to -3.17, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling slightly to +1.43 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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