BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, June 22, 2024
:
- Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 183 degrees. Water temp 78.6 (Barbers Pt), 78.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 6.6 secs from 66 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
- Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 37 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 269 degrees. Wind south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.4 degs, 51.8 (Harvest 071), 67.1 (Topanga 103), 65.8 (Long Beach 215), 67.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 68.5 (Del Mar 153), 68.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 8.0 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.0 ft @ 7.6 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 7.8 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.7 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 7.8 secs from 283 degrees. Water temperature was 65.8 degrees (Imperial Beach).
- Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with northwest windswell 4.3 ft @ 7.9 secs from 328 degrees and background southern hemi swell 1.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 185 degrees. Wind west at 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and NNE at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.2 (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 52.5 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 53.6 (Monterey Bay 46092).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/22) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and lined up but pretty soft and fairly clean with no wind and pretty foggy early. Protected breaks were up to waist high and very weak and mushed and slightly warbled with fog early. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on rare sets and clean and weakly lined up and soft and irregular. In Southern California/Ventura waves were maybe thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean with fog. Central Orange County had waves at waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up coming from the south and mushed and soft but clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist high and lined up with marginal form and very soft and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean and very soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and warbled from sideshore wind. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from brisk northeasterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/22) Hawaii and California were getting no real swell of interest. A cutoff gale developed over the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (6/16) producing up to 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is poised for mainly California. After that a bit of a break is forecast until Mon (6/24) when a primer gale is forecast tracking northeast over the the Southeast Pacific with seas to 27 ft followed by a stronger system Tues-Thurs (6/27) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast targeting mainly South America. There is some hope.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours North Pacific Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/22) no swell was in the water or being produced.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.
California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).
- Sun AM (6/23) the usual summertime pressure gradient tries to build some with northwest winds 20-25 kts for most of North CA down to Pt Reyes and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 20-30 kts over North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell building slightly.
- Mon AM (6/24) the gradient holds with northwest winds 20-25 kts mainly over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts for Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon the gradient fades some with northwest winds 20+ kts for North CA and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
- Tues AM (6/25) northwest winds to be 15+ kts for North CA and mostly 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA limited to the immediate coast. No meaningful windswell is to be produced.
- Wed AM (6/26) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North Ca between Cape Mendocino and Pt Reyes and 10-15 kts for Central CA early and very shallow. In the afternoon no change is forecast other than winds building to 15-20 kts over Central CA. No meaningful windswell production forecast.
- Thurs AM (6/27) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts limited to points south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA. Weak short period windswell developing.
- Fri AM (6/28) northwest winds to be 20 kts for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is forecast other than a broader fetch developing over Cape Mendocino. Windswell building some.
- Sat AM (6/29) northwest winds to be fading at 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. Windswell fading some.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.
Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level mostly 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection generally 55-60 degrees into Thurs (6/27) then falling to 50-65 degrees through Sun (6/30) before starting to rise again.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
South Pacific
Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (6/22) the jet was split over the entire South Pacific with both the influential southern branch and the northern branch falling gently southeast with the southern branch eventually tracking over Antarctic Ice over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast with the 2 branches well split with no troughs forecast until later Mon (6/24) when a trough is to start building in the Southern branch over the South Central Pacific lifting northeast being fed by 120 kt winds Tues (6/25) starting to offer an environment supportive of gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (6/26) the trough is to hold while slowly moving east over the Southeast Pacific into Fri (6/28) being fed by 110 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. But after that a far weaker and well split jetstream pattern is to set up with the southern branch mostly over Antarctic Ice with winds 70 kts offering no support for gale formation.
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/22) swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific is tracking northeast targeting California and points south of there with sideband swell targeting Hawaii (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (6/24) a small primer gale is forecast developing just off Antarctic Ice of the Central South Pacific lifting east-northeast with 40-45 kt southwest winds and sea 28 ft just off the Ross Ice Shelf at 62.25S 166.75W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east-northeast with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 59.75S 152W aimed northeast. Fetch tracking east-northeast on Tues AM (6/25) at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 27 ft at 58S 132.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading from 35 kts in the evening on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 25 ft at 57S 125W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (6/15) with 40+ kt south winds over a solid area and seas building from 24 ft at 45S 150W aimed northeast. South fetch built in the evening over the exact same area with south to southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 46.5S 146W aimed northeast. Fetch holds stationary on Sun AM (6/16) but fading from 35 kts from the south and southwest with seas 33 ft at 41S 137.75W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas 25 ft at 40.25S 133W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas were gone after that. All this was well east of the Hawaii swell window targeting mainly California and points well south of there.
Oahu: Low odds of sideband swell arriving on Sat (6/22) building to 1.0 ft @ 15 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Sun (6/23) to 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft) mid-afternoon. Swell fading on Mon (6/24) from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 175 degrees.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/22) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell develops in earnest on Sun (6/23) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late afternoon (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holds on Mon (6/24) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues AM (6/25) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (6/26) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs AM (6/27) fading out from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194-197 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/23) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs late afternoon (2.5 ft). Swell holds on Mon (6/24) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues AM (6/25) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (6/26) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs AM (6/27) fading out from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193-196 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future North Pacific Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours starting Tues AM (6/25) a main gale is to form off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf with a broad area of 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 62S 175W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to build to 45 kts while tracking east with seas building from 33 ft at 61S 160.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/26) a broad fetch of 45 kt southwest winds are to be filling the deep South Central Pacific with 37 ft seas building at 60S 150.25W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be lifting northeast in the evening at 40 kts with seas 38 ft over a broad area at 57.75S 140.25W aimed northeast, Fetch is to be fading Thurs AM (6/27) from 35-40 kts on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window lifting northeast with seas fading from 28-30 ft roughly centered at 61S 120W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
MJO/ENSO Forecast La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.
MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST |
Summer 2024 = 6.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells) |
Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/21) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/22) Today weak to modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies building to strong status 6/25 filling the KWGA into 7/4 then building more while moving east and east of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 7/7 while moderate west anomalies start building in the far West Pacific on 7/2 filling most of the KWGA at the end of the model run.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/19) The current situation indicates a completely neutral MJO pattern in control today. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts a dead neutral MJO forecast through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over Africa and very weak. It is to move to the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out at very weak status. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase moving over the East Indian Ocean and very weak 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/22) This model depicts a weak Active Phase (wet air) was starting to move over the KWGA today. It is to move east through the KWGA and move east of it 7/12 with the Inactive Phase (dry air) developing over the KWGA and building to modest strength at the end of the model run on 8/1 filling the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/21) Today a neutral MJO was indicated with mostly weak east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates a Inactive MJO developing 6/23-7/1 with east anomalies traversing the KWGA at moderate plus strength. West anomalies to develop over the KWGA 6/29-7/11 then fading with east anomalies again taking over through the end of the model run on 7/19.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/22) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
A very weak Active MJO was fading over the KWGA today with a mix of mostly weak east anomalies filling it. On 6/24 a weak Inactive MJO sets up with mostly weak east anomalies holding filling the KWGA. A weak Active signal is forecast 7/11-7/23 with weak west anomalies forecast. Another modest Inactive Phase is forecast 7/18-8/9 with a solid Active Phase forecast starting 8/2 through the end of the model on 9/19. Starting 6/30 steady weak west anomalies are forecast through the end of the model run over the Western KWGA and east anomalies east of the dateline steadily building and reaching over the dateline on 7/24 and steadily building to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 9/10. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is to be holding , then building quickly east on 7/14 filling the bulk of the KWGA to California if not the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was steady at 180W today. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 165W. The 28 deg isotherm line has moved east from 143W and is now steady at 110W. The 24 degree isotherm extends east the whole way across the Pacific reaching to Ecuador (previously 119W). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now building at +2 to +3 deg filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline. Interesting. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -3 degs was filling the entire subsurface East Pacific, but considerably smaller and weaker than previously. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 140W but not growing in coverage. And subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not so much from 160W and points west of there. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W with a broad pocket at -15 cms near 115W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/17) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 137W, decreasing in coverage from 150W in mid-May now limited from 130W and points east of there. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were from 140W all over the West Pacific. A clear La Nina pattern is in play. But warm anomalies are building over the dateline since early May at +0.5 degs and if anything growing in coverage. Interesting.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/21) The latest images depict what appears to be a La Nina cool pool building on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/21): A broad area of cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to 120W and building in width.
Hi-res Overview: (6/21) Cooler than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 140W. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina cool stream tearing through its heart.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/22) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading some today at -1.241. Overall the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/22) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +0.055. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST are steadily falling at 0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.13 March, +0.79 April, +0.32 May.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +0.75 MAM, +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.
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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and 0.0 mid June.
Forecast (6/21) - Temps to fall to -0.10 mid-July, -1.0 late Aug and -1.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.00 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.117 degs today and its the 13th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.338 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.741 in Oct and holding there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.893 (-1.075 previous run) in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.631 in Oct (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/21) the Daily Index was falling at -9.42 today and has been weakly negative the last 4 days. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at -4.16. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling slightly at -3.51. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 in April and now -2.97 in May). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. - - - NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131 Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/ Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table |