Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
Video Surf Forecast HERE (11/20)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, June 21, 2021 5:09 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.0 - California & 3.3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/21 thru Sun 6/27

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Longer Period Swell Showing in CA
More Swell Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, June 21, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 14.5 secs from 197 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.6 degs, 67.5 (Topanga 103), 63.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.6 (Del Mar 153), 65.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 15.8 secs from 204 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 18.8 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 18.4 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 18.2 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 15.8 secs from 193 with secondary swell 1.8 ft @ 18.8 secs. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 14-18 kts. Water temp 55.2 (029), 55.6 degs (SF Bar 142) and 61.3 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (6/21) North and Central CA had waves at maybe waist high and pretty warbled and chopped from south wind. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and clean with south texture on it. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and clean and fairly lined up with good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up. Central Orange County had set waves at head high or so and lined up but pretty textured from northwesterly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up and peeling and clean. North San Diego had sets waves at chest high or so and lined and clean. Hawaii's North Shore had some stray waves at chest high and clean with light wind early. The South Shore continued getting solid swell with set waves head high and lined up and peeling and clean but inconsistent and a little weaker than days past. The East Shore was getting wrap around small northwest swell with waves up to waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (6/21) California was still seeing swell from a decent gale that developed in the South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (6/11) producing up to 36 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east-northeast. And longer period energy was building from a stronger system that formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east fast Sun-Tues (6/15) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell from this system was also still hitting Hawaii. Another smaller gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 36 ft seas aimed east if not southeast. Limited energy is pushing northeast expected to result in surf for California and points south of there. Beyond a small system is forecast developing under New Zealand Mon-Wed (6/23) producing up to 30 ft seas tracking northeast. And maybe a better one is to form in the Central South Pacific for Fri-Sat (6/26) with 38 ft seas aimed northeast. And yet another is forecast forming under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Mon (6/28) with up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast. So a productive pattern is forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (6/21) Hawaii was getting a tiny pulse of inconsistent swell from a low pressure system that generated 17 ft seas northwest of the Islands on Fri (6/18). Otherwise no swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. But the North Pacific remains more active than is normal for this time of the year with 2 systems forecast traversing its northern border. But neither is to produce seas of even 18 ft either close enough nor aimed at our forecast area to produce meaningful swell.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Tues (6/22) north winds to be fading at 15-20 kts well off the North CA coast with an eddy flow (south winds) for all of North and Central CA fading to 15 kts in the afternoon. No meaningful windswell expected.
  • Wed (6/23) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts off the coast but near calm for all of North and Central CA d 5-10 kts for Central CA building to maybe 10 kts from the northwest in the afternoon. No windswell expected.
  • Thurs (6/24) high pressure tries to return with northwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts kts for Central CA pretty much holding all day. No windswell expected.
  • Fri (6/25) north winds to start building at 15-20 kts mainly north of Pt Arena early and 10+ kts down into all of Central CA and holding all day. No really windswell expected to result.
  • Sat (6/26) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA holding in the afternoon resulting in some modest northwest windswell for all of North and Central CA.
  • Sun (6/27) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA not really offering any windswell production potential.
  • Mon (6/28)

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000 or above through 6/21 then falling to 12,500 ft 6/22-6/26, then rising back to 14,000+ ft.

----

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (6/21) the influential southern branch of the jet was still pretty far south tracking west to east down at 63S with no troughs in the flow offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a small trough is to start building under New Zealand being fed by 120 kt southwest winds offering building support for gale development pushing east to the Central South Pacific into late Wed (6/23) then fading on Thurs (6/24). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (6/25) another trough is to start building over the Central South Pacific over a broader area being fed by 100 kt winds lifting north to 50S early Sat (6/26) offering good support for gale development while slowly fading and pushing east to the edge of the CA swell window on Sun (6/27). And yet another stronger trough is to start building under New Zealand on Sun (6/27) being fed by 130 kts winds pushing east into Mon (6/28) offering solid support for gale development. A nice pattern might develop.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (6/21) swell was fading in California originating from a gale previously in the deep South Central Pacific (See Deep Central South Pacific Gale below). Stronger swell was fading in Hawaii but building in California originating from a broader gale that traversed the South Pacific (see South Central Pacific Storm below). And a secondary fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) aimed somewhat towards the US West Coast with swell from it tracking northeast towards the US mainland. A long run of modest to moderate sized swell is expected for the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 27 ft at 60S 158.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds to be tracking northeast at 40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 30 ft at 56.75S 171.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 28 ft at 53S 174.5W aimed northeast. Residual fetch to persist into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a moderate area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas fading at 58.5S 171W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

Deep Central Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/9) a tiny gale developed in the deep South Central Pacific producing 45 kts southwest winds pushing off the Ross Ice Shelf producing 27 ft seas at 64S 152W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the west-southwest with seas 30 ft at 63S 142W aimed east-northeast. Fetch and seas are to be gone in the evening. Small swell to result for South and Central America with barely perceptible energy up ito the US West Coast.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

South Central Pacific Storm
On Sat PM (6/12) a new gale was developing just southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 55S 175.8W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with a core at 50 kts aimed north with seas building from 32 ft at 51.5S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening broad area of 30-40 kt southwest winds were filling the South Central Pacific with a core at 50-55 kts aimed northeast producing 37 ft seas at 51.5S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch was tracking east at 50 kts over a solid area with a huge area of 30-35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 41 ft at 51S 137.75 aimed east to northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a large area in the Southeast Pacific with 35 ft seas at 52S 128.75W with 26-28 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 43S 147W pushing northeast. The fetch quickly dissipate from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Hawaii: Swell steady Mon AM (6/21) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) then starting to fade late afternoon. Residuals on Tues (6/22) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/23) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182-185 degrees

Southern California: Swell building on Mon (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (3.5 ft ). Swell continuing up on Tues (6/22) reaching 3.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (5.0 ft) mid-AM and holding. Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on on Thurs (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200-204 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/21) building to 1.8 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/22) to 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/24) at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/25) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-198 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch associated with the South Central Pacific Gale (above) developed Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch built Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 135.75W aimed east. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds were aimed northeast while falling south with seas 36 ft at 56.5S 122.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch was in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 31 ft seas at 57.5S 119W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/25) building to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holds on Sat (6/26) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell pulsing some on Sun (6/27) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/26) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/27) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another system is to develop in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds with the gale itself pushing east generating 36 ft seas at 554.25S 169.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale is to lift northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 37 ft at 52.75S 155.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to push east fast with south winds 45-50 kts over a building area with seas 37 ft at 51.5S 145W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch is to regroup at 45 kts over a larger area aimed north with seas 37 ft at 53.25S 136.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading but still 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north with 38 ft seas at 50S 132.5W aimed north. On Sun AM (6/27) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the south with 31 ft seas at 43S 131W aimed north. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 35 kt south winds lifting north and seas fading from 29 ft at 35S 125W aimed north. Something to monitor.

On Sun AM (6/27) another gale is forecast pushing under New Zealand with 4045 kts southwest wind and seas 34 ft at 54.5S 156.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 52.5S 169.25E aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring Weakly near Ecuador - SOI Neutral and Stable
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves is weakly erupting near the Galapagos. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there hinting at strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/20) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate plus east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/21) a mix of modest east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for west anomalies fading out mainly on the dateline by 6/23 with weak east anomalies slowly building in the far West KWGA and taking over it by 6/24 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/28.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/20) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase building to moderate status on day 5 and holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/21) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over north Africa today and is to track east to the Central Indian Ocean on day 15 at exceedingly weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase holding it's position and building some over North Africa through day 15 of the model run over the West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/20) Neither the Active Phase (wet air) or the Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the Pacific today. this pattern is to hold till 7/5 when a weak pocket of the Inactive Phase (dry air) sets up over the West Pacific Teasing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/30.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/20) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak mostly west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA through 7/4. After that a weak east wind pattern is to slowly grow in the KWGA from west to east filling it by 7/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/18 while becoming focused on the dateline area.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/21 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today no MJO was present with weak west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to set up 6/29-7/15 with a mix of weak east anomalies in the West KWGA and weak west anomalies over the dateline. Starting 7/18 a semi solid Active Phase of the MJO is to set up filling the KWGA through 9/15 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but solid east anomalies setting up starting 7/23 from the dateline eastward and building into 8/14 and holding thereafter. After that a return to a neutral MJO pattern is forecast with west anomalies persisting. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/2 holding through 8/1 then possibly back-building west to the dateline and holding. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position to 7/20, then slowly retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run and effectively out of the Pacific. This suggest a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 178E and the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 156W possibly suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. Also +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 150W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 125W and points east of there indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates much the same. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) A slight increase in sea heights developed the past 5 days over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms over the dateline and points west and pockets from the dateline to 120W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. The demise of La Nina is occurring now but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was getting established.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/20) The latest images depict steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with marked warming building along Peru, Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. Perhaps 2 previous Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but very broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/20): A weak and small area of warming was occurring west of the Galapagos. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/20) A distinct flow of warmer than normal waters were on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A mix of generic warm and cool water was west of Peru and Chile but moving more towards the warm end of the spectrum. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/21) Today's temps were steady +0.102 after peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/21) Today temps were falling slightly at +0.185 after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15 (the highest is a year). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/21) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May and then -0.05 in early June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.80 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.30 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/21): The daily index was falling to -13.71. The 30 day average was falling to -3.17, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling slightly to +1.50 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

532

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2022 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator