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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, June 19, 2022 2:32 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/20 thru Sun 6/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Tasman Sea Swell Hitting HI
New Zealand Swell Queued - Another Gale Forecast

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, June 19, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 15.9 secs from 222 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.6 secs from 310 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 9.4 secs from 284 degrees. Wind northwest at 2 kts. Water temperature 66.7 degs, 65.7 (Topanga 103), 65.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 69.1 (Del Mar 153), 70.0 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.0 ft @ 8.3 secs from 290 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.4 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 9.5 secs from 276 degrees. Water temp 66.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 8.2 secs from 289 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.4 (Pt Reyes 46013), 50.9 (46026), 55.4 (SF Bar 142), 55.4 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 53.8 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/19) North and Central CA had set waves at waist to maybe near chest high and somewhat warbled and a little sloppy but not too bad. Protected breaks were waist high with decent form and clean with some intermixed warbled and soft and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and clean and soft and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets with decent form but soft and crumbled but with no wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist high or so and lined up coming from the northwest and soft with some northwest texture on top. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high with decent good form when them came and textured and crumbled. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting fun sized swell with waves up to shoulder high and lined up and clean with good form at top breaks. The South Shore was getting fun sized swell with waves shoulder high and lined up and clean with good form. The East Shore had east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (6/19) California was getting the last of minimal swell from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific. Hawaii was getting swell on the North shore from a gale that developed off Japan tracking northeast with seas to 32 ft. And the South Shore was getting swell from a solid gale that developed over the Tasman Sea Thurs-Mon (6/13) producing 26-32 ft seas aimed northeast. Secondary energy from that gale redeveloped in the far Southwest Pacific Tues-Wed (6/15) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell is propagating towards both Hawaii and CA. And another gale is forecast for the Central South Pacific Mon-Thurs (6/23) producing mostly 26-30 ft seas with one portion up to 36 ft aimed northeast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (6/19) small swell from a gale previously off Japan was fading in Hawaii (see Japan Gale below). And remnants of that gale redeveloped over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below) with swell poised to arrive on Mon (6/20).

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

Japan Gale
On Sun PM (6/12) a gale developed quickly while tracking east off Japan producing a small area of 45-50 kt west winds with seas building briefly to 32 ft at 37.75N 153.25E aimed west. Winds were fading fast Mon AM (6/13) southwest winds were fading from 40 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 38N 157E aimed east. The gale faded from there. Some tiny swell to result for Hawaii late in the workweek into the weekend.

Oahu: Swell fading on Sun (6/19) from 1.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 307 degrees

 

North Dateline Gale
Remnants of the Japan Gale (above) raced northeast and redeveloped Wed PM (6/15) over the North Dateline region producing a small area of 40 kt west winds with seas building to 23 ft at 46N 177.75E aimed southeast. That fetch pushed east on Thurs AM (6/16) at 35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 47.5N 176.5W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there. Perhaps small swell is to radiate towards the Islands backing up swell from the Japan Gale (below). Will monitor.\

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/20) building to 2.1 ft @ 11-12 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Tues (6/21) from 1.6 ft @ 10 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 321 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (6/20) high pressure builds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early building to 25-30 kts for North CA later and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
  • Tues (6/21) the usual summertime pressure gradient builds with northwest winds forecast at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 25 kts down to Bodega Bay with northwest winds 10 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino but northwest at 5 kts from Bodega Bay southward turning south. Windswell continues
  • Wed (6/22) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino but south from Pt Arena southward at 5-10 kts. No change in the afternoon. Windswell fading slightly
  • Thurs (6/23) northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts early for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts from Pt Arena southward. Winds turning northwest in the afternoon for Central CA at 5 kts. Windswell fading some.
  • Fri (6/24) northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts over a tiny area near Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts from Pt Arena southward. No change in the afternoon. Windswell fading.
  • Sat (6/25) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts over a tiny area near Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from Pt Arena southward. Cape mendocino fetch is to be gone in the afternoon with northwest winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell production forecast.
  • Sun (6/27) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA . No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tahoe area 8,500 ft today building to 12,000 ft on Mon 6/20 and then to 14,000+ ft on 6/25 and holding beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (6/19) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing hard north at 140 kts just east of New Zealand and almost crashing into the northern branch of the jet with winds at 180 kts forming a trough offering good support for gale development there. East of there the jet was falling southeast over the far Southeast Pacific forming a ridge pushing down to 72S offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to continue pushing north interacting with the northern branch of the jet forming a well defined trough into Tues (6/21) offering good support for gale development then weakening Wed through Fri (6/17) offering less support for gale development while tracking east to the Southeast Pacific likely offering little in terms of support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a ridge building west of the aforementioned trough under New Zealand on Thurs (6/23) and tracking east offering no support for gale development.


Surface Analysis
Tiny swell from a small gale that formed over the far Southeast Pacific was fading mainly in Southern CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from a gale previously over the Tasman Sea was pulsing in Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below). And swell from a gale that developed from the remnants of the Tasman Sea Gale southeast of New Zealand has produced yet more swell radiating northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sun AM (12/19) a small gale is to build southeast of New Zealand with 35-45 kt south winds with seas building. In the evening a broader fetch of south winds is forecast at 45-55 kts with seas building from 33 ft over a tiny area at 47.5S 162.75W aimed north. Southwest fetch to continue Mon AM (6/20) at 45 kts with seas 37 ft over a semi decent sized area at 45S 155.75W aimed northeast. Fetch continuing in the evening at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 42.75S 149W aimed northeast. A broad fetch of secondary winds is to develop Tues AM (6/21) at 35 kts from the southwest with seas 24 ft at 40S 150W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to build to 40 kts over a solid area aimed north with seas 28 ft at 51.5S 156.6W aimed north. On Wed AM (6/22) south fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 30 ft at 51S 153W aimed north. South fetch fading from 30 kts in the evening with seas fading from 29 ft at 48.75S 144.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

Small Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed over the far eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window Thurs PM (6/9) producing 40-45 kts south winds and seas 25 ft at 35S 115W aimed north. On Fri AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south while tracking slowly east with seas 25 ft aimed north at 35S 112W. This system was gone after that. Small southeast swell is possible for exposed breaks in Southern CA.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/18) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/19) fading from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 177 moving to 175 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/18) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 173 moving to 171 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing in the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (6/8) producing 30-35 kt south winds over a decent sized area producing 22 ft seas at 43.75S 149.25E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/9) fetch was building to 35-40 kts aimed northeast with seas 23 ft at 48S 143.75E aimed northeast. Additional southwest fetch developed in the evening at 30-35+ kts over a broad area filling the Tasman Sea with seas 26 ft at 42S 150E aimed northeast. On Fri AM (6/10) southwest winds continued at 30+ kts aimed northeast with additional fetch to the south at 45 kts aimed well north with seas 24 ft at 45S 155E aimed northeast. Another fetch developed in the evening under Tasmania at 35-40 kts aimed due north with 22 ft seas from previous fetch at 42.5S 163E aimed northeast with a new area of seas at 24 ft at 50S 145E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/11) the new fetch took over filling the Tasman Sea over a 1,100 nmile long area at 35-45 kts from the south with 30 ft seas building at 43S 151.25E aimed north. In the evening fetch was lifting north at 35-45 kts filling the Tasman Sea with 26+ ft seas with a core at 32 ft at 43.25S 160.25E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/12) fetch as fading from 30-35 kts still filling the Tasman Sea and impacting West New Zealand with 28 ft seas fading at 36S 160E aimed northeast. Fetch holding at 35 kts in the evening with seas 26 ft at 37S 165E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/13) the original fetch is to be inland over New Zealand with a new pulse of 35-40 kt southwest winds in the Southern Tasman Sea producing 31 ft seas down at 54.5S 157E aimed northeast with seas from the original fetch fading from 22 ft at 37S 168E still in the Fiji swell window. In the evening the fetch is to become shadowed by New Zealand relative to Hawaii and Fiji with seas from previous fetch fading from 28 ft at 50S 160E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/14) all fetch and seas are to be gone. Possible solid swell to result for Fiji with filtered energy from Hawaii.

Hawaii (Oahu): A bit more energy arrives on Sun (6/19) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (6/20) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.3 ft). Swell Direction: 221 degrees moving to 218 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
On Monday PM (6/13) the Tasman Sea gale pushed into the far Southwest Pacific with a broad area of southwest winds at 35-40 kts generating seas of 31 ft at 51.5S 164.25E aimed up into the California swell window but partially shadowed by Auckland Island and not yet quite at Hawaii. On Tues AM (6/14) the gale was free and clear with 45 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast and seas building to 35 ft at 50.75S 173E. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds continued plodding east with 39 ft seas at 50.5S 177.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/15) southwest winds were fading from 35+ kts with seas 35 ft at 49.5S 168.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading out from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft over a large area at 49.25S 159.25W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (6/22) building to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (6/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Fri (6/24) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/25) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) mid-day. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) later. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Massive Pool of Warm Water Building Subsurface
Cool Water Losing Coverage -
Models Suggest Demise of La Nina
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected slowly fading out into Fall. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/18) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/19) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA centered at the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at modest strength then building to moderate strength focused over the dateline at the end of the model run on 6/26.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/18) A moderate Inactive MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it holding on days 5-10 of the model run then fading to near neutral on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(6/19) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over Africa and is to push east to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/18) A modest Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was filling the Equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east to Central America on 7/3. A weak Active Phase is to track east into the KWGA on 6/30 moving to the Central Pacific and into Ecuador on 7/28 (the end of the model run). A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific on 7/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/18) A neutral MJO Phase was over the KWGA today with weak east anomalies locked over the dateline. East anomalies are to hold over the dateline for the length of the model run and slowly building to moderate strength at the end of the model run on 7/16 but still no MJO signal is forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(6/19 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was over the entire KWGA with weak east anomalies in control. The forecast depicts weak west anomalies developing 6/20 almost filling the KWGA through 7/8 while the broad Inactive Phase builds some. The Inactive Phase is to start fading 7/5 but with weak east anomalies redeveloping 7/10-7/21. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 7/19 pushing through the KWGA through 9/7 with west anomalies filling half the KWGA (to 150E) by 7/28 and holding thru the end of the model run with solid east anomalies from 155E and points east of there. A weak Inactive Phase is to try to develop in the west KWGA on 8/22 but fading quickly and getting no traction. The core of east anomalies are to move from the dateline to 150W on 6/20 and holding there beyond. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/27 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding to 160E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 7/29 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. Suspect that is a temporary setback with a rebuild to the east starting in mid-Fall. That said, east anomalies are to remain centered at about 150W and not moving further west into the the KWGA beyond 165E in Sept. We are still waiting for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E (where it is now).

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present holding at 170E. The 28 deg isotherm line was tracking east some to 176W (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 132W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east connecting to a pocket of +2 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 now is picking up on that trend with the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 100W and poised to reaching the surface there if not breaching it already at 133W and 119W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W at -3.5 degs C and steadily getting compressed east while weakening and discharging to the surface at 90W. A possible massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 130W though a finger was reaching east to 110W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a last stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -10 cms were limited to the area over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were surging east to 135W on the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 100W. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east at 135W with one pocket at 120W. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building in the the west pushing east and squeezing cool water in the east to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/18) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador building west to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/18): Cooling temps were indicated from Ecuador to 105W. Warming temps were from 105W to 125W.
Hi-res Overview: (6/18) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned in a thin string on the equator from Ecuador to 120W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/19) Today's temps were falling some at -1.348 but have been at -1.5 or greater since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/19) Today's temps were rising at -0.414 degs and have been rising from -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps have been rising steadily since 5/15. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/19) - T
emps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.50 degs in July falling to -0.85 in Oct, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Dec and up to +0.15 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in late June and to -0.40 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.65 degs Oct-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold mid-Dec and rising from there forward to +0.10 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina or close to it in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.441 in Dec and -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/19) the daily index was positive at +20.31 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising to +15.55 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.59 today and is just barely below its peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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