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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, June 15, 2021 2:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.3 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/14 thru Sun 6/20

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell Slowly Building to CA
Strong Swell Pattern Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 3.6 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.9 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.0 secs from 71 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 6.3 secs from 268 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 12-16 kts. Water temperature 63.5 degs, 67.8 (Topanga 103), 63.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.9 (Del Mar 153), 67.5 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.2 ft @ 7.8 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 4.4 ft @ 6.6 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 16.2 secs from 180 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 7.7 secs from 282 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 279 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.9 (029), 57.2 degs (SF Bar 142) and 59.2 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/15) North and Central CA had waves at knee to thigh high and lightly warbled and mushed with clean skies and not really rideable. Protected breaks had thigh to waist high sets with clean conditions and soft and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or maybe more on the sets and lined up and clean but weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and clean but soft and weak with no local wind. Central Orange County had set waves at chest to near head high and lined up and clean making for occasional well rideable waves. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high plus and clean but generally weak. North San Diego had sets waves at waist to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and somewhat lined up but weak with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The South Shore was flat to small with sets maybe thigh high at top spots and clean but weak and inconsistent. The East Shore was getting some minimal east windswell with waves up to thigh high and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/15) California was getting tiny southern hemi swell from a gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/7) producing 31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. No swell was hitting Hawaii. Another small gale developed in the South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (6/11) producing up to 36 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east-northeast. And a stronger system has formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east fast Sun-Tues (6/15) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And another smaller system is to follow in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 44 ft seas aimed east. And a whole bunch of lesser systems are to follow but with seas 28 ft or less possibly setting up background swell. The Southern Hemi is productive.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/15) no swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell of interest was in the water other than windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. But interesting, the North Pacific is more active than is normal for this time of the year, but none of those systems is to produce seas of even 18 ft.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (6/16) high pressure returns producing northwest winds at 20-25 kts of all of North and Central CA early lifting north some in the afternoon but still producing 20-25 kt northwest winds for all of North CA and all of Central CA other than the Pt Conception area. Windswell building.
  • Thurs (6/17) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA nearshore and 20 kts off the coast holding all day but fading nearshore for Central CA to 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. Windswell holding.
  • Fri (6/18) northwest winds and high pressure continue for North CA early at 25-30 kts down to Pt Reyes with northwest winds 10 kts south of there for Central CA and holding all day and likely an eddy flow (south winds) nearshore. Windswell building.
  • Sat (6/19) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA early down to Pt Arena and northwest 10 kts south of there (again likely an eddy flow - south wind) holding up north in the afternoon but only for Cape Mendocino northwest 10 kts south of there. Windswell fading some later.
  • Sun (6/20) northwest winds are to be 20 kts for extreme north Cape Mendocino and 25-30 kts just off the coast with an eddy flow (south winds ) southward for North and Central CA holding all day. Windswell fading.
  • Mon (6/21) north winds are to be 25-30 kts off Cape Mendocino and North CA with an eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Arena southward holding all day. Windswell holding.
  • Tues (6/22) north winds build at 25-30 kts for most of North CA to Bodega Bay early and northwest 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. Windswell building some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000 or above through 6/21 then falling to 14,000 ft and holding.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/15) the influential southern branch of the jet was forming a broad trough was filling the entire South Pacific starting under New Zealand lifting northeast over the South Central Pacific up to 50S with winds to 140 kts then falling south from a point east of the California swell window. Good support for gale development was suggested. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to start pushing east and weakening starting on late Wed (6/16) with areal coverage limited to the far Southeast Pacific on Fri (6/18) but still being fed by 140 kts winds then offering more support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the southern branch of the jet is to be tracking flat west to east averaging down around 60S and just a bit north of the Antarctic Ice Shelf with no clearly defined troughs indicated and winds 110-130 kts offering only modest support for gale development. No clearly defined troughs are indicated meaning the storm track will likely turn off.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/15) swell was hitting California from 2 gales previously in the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale and Small Central South Pacific Gale below). Another somewhat better swell was radiating northeast from a gale previously in the deep South Central Pacific (See Deep Central South Pacific Gale below). And another small swell was radiating northeast from a small gale that formed in the Southwest Pacific (see Small Southwest Pacific Gale below). Of more interest was swell that was starting to develop from a broader Gale that was traversing the South Pacific (see South Central Pacific Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours secondary fetch is to develop Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch building Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 40 ft at 53S 136.25W aimed east. In the evening 50-55 kt southwest winds to be aimed northeast while falling south with seas 44 ft at 55S 124.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch is to be in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 35 ft seas at 57.5S 117.25W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.

 

Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing Sun AM (6/6) in the deep South Central Pacific producing 40 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas building. The gale lifted northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 60.75S 146.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/7) the gale was fading while lifting northeast with 35+ kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 57S 136W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be gone. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting.

Southern CA: Swell building some on Tues (6/15) to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/15) building later to 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189-192 degrees

 

Small Central Pacific Gale
Also on Mon AM (6/7) a cutoff low developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific producing a small area of 50 kt south winds and seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 38S 142W aimed due north. The gale was stationary in the evening producing 40-45 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 40S 143W aimed north. On Tues AM (6/8) the gale was easing east with 35-40 kt south winds over a small area and seas fading from 21 ft at 40S 141W aimed north. No additional fetch anticipated. Whatever swell is to be generated is to arrive in sync with swell from the Central Pacific Gale (above).

 

Deep Central Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/9) a tiny gale developed in the deep South Central Pacific producing 45 kts southwest winds pushing off the Ross Ice Shelf producing 27 ft seas at 64S 152W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the west-southwest with seas 30 ft at 63S 142W aimed east-northeast. Fetch and seas are to be gone in the evening. Small swell to result for South and Central America with barely perceptible energy up ito the US West Coast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

Small Southwest Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (6/10) a fetch of southwest winds started building southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (6/10) at 50+ kts over a tiny area getting traction and producing seas of 28-30 ft near 56.75S 168.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 45 kts over a small area pushing east fast with seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 56S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (6/11) fetch pushed east at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 55S 146W aimed east. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor but swell likely to be buried in stronger swell arriving at the same time.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/17) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (6/18) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/19) at 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) and starting to be overrun by stronger South Central Pacific swell below. Swell Direction: 186 degrees


South Central Pacific Storm
On Sat PM (6/12) a new gale was developing just southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 55S 175.8W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with a core at 50 kts aimed north with seas building from 32 ft at 51.5S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening broad area of 30-40 kt southwest winds were filling the South Central Pacific with a core at 50-55 kts aimed northeast producing 37 ft seas at 51.5S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch was tracking east at 50 kts over a solid area with a huge area of 30-35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 41 ft at 51S 137.75 aimed east to northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a large area in the Southeast Pacific with 35 ft seas at 52S 128.75W with 26-28 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 43S 147W pushing northeast. The fetch quickly dissipate from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.5 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (6/20) pushing 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later afternoon (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell steady Mon AM (6/21) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) then starting to fade late afternoon. Residuals on Tues (6/22) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/23) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182-185 degrees

Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/20) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (3.5 ft ). Swell continuing up on Tues (6/22) reaching 3.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (5.0 ft) mid-AM and holding. Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200-204 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/21) building to 1.8 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/22) to 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft ). Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193-198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another fetch of southwest winds are to develop in the Southeast Pacific on Fri AM (6/18) at 40 kts aimed well north with seas building from 25 ft at 61S 139W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds are to be pushing northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 58S 125W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading from there on Sat AM (6/19) with seas 28 ft at 55S 118W moving out of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Another fetch of southwest winds are to be moving over the Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (6/19) producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 56.5S 135W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/20) southwest winds to be 40 kts moving to the edge of the CA swell window with 29 ft seas at 52.5S 119.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be well east of the Southern CA swell window.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring near Ecuador - SOI Lowest in a Year
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves appears to be erupting over the Galapagos. The forecast suggests a return of east anomalies in the KWGA 3 months out.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/14) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak westerly over the East equatorial Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/15) modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies slowly fading into 6/18 limited to to a small area over the West KWGA with limited west anomalies developing over the dateline on 6/18 holding through the end of the model run on 6/22.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/14) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase fading over the KWGA at day 5 fading to neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/15) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over North Africa today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase holding it's position and strength through day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/14) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was over the Central Pacific today. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to push east into Central America 6/24. A second pulse of the Inactive Phase is follow in the west on 6/29 pushing into Central America on 7/19. A new modest Active Phase is to build in the west on 6/29 moving to the Central Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/24.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/14) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with east anomalies fading in the KWGA on 6/17 with a generalized weak mix of west and east anomalies in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/15 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was dissipating over the KWGA. Weak east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to dissipate with a weak MJO pattern forecast through 7/15 with weak west anomalies holding over the dateline and weak east anomalies over the far West KWGA. On 7/17 a moderately solid Active Phase is to set up filling the KWGA through 8/12 with solid west anomalies filling the KWGA. After that no clear MJO pattern is forecast through the end of the model run on 9/12 with west anomalies retrograding from the East KWGA to the far West KWGA with east anomalies build in from the east filling the KWGA. In short, a return to a weak La Nina pattern looks likely. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. This contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/5 holding through 8/30 then possibly building back west to the dateline. A single contour low pressure bias is to ease east reaching 165-170E in early July, then slowly retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. This suggest a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 173W and +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 145W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 110-120W. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates much the same. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were all but gone with residuals getting squeezed to the surface by the Kelvin Wave near Peru. But a break in the warm flow was indicated at 140W 125 meters down. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) A decrease in sea heights continued over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms over the dateline and points west and then from 100W and points east of there with neutral anomalies in between. The demise of La Nina is occurring now but no clear large scale warming is occurring.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/14) The latest images show steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with marked warming building just off Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. Perhaps the Kelvin Wave is erupting. A previous upwelling event (cool anomalies) was now gone along Peru. A pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/14): Marked warming was occurring over the Galapagos with lesser warming out to 110W. Perhaps this is a sign of an upwelling warm water event.
Hi-res Overview: (6/14) Weakly warmer than normal waters were on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline with a distinct pocket of warming along Ecuador and the Galapagos. Elsewhere a generic area of warm water was west of Central America. A mix of generic cool and warm water was west of Peru. A very weak area of cool water was along the immediate coast of Peru and fading fast. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) Today's temps were rising steadily to -0.048, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/15) Today temps were rising again to +0.224 after peaking at +0.219 today (the highest is a year). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps are on a steady increase.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/15) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May and -0.05 in early June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.75 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.30 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/15): The daily index was rising to 24.25. The 30 day average was falling to -2.01, after bottoming out 6/14 at -2.08,the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +1.88 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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