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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 17, 2017 12:07 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/19 thru Sun 6/25

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 Small SW Pac Swells Tracking Northeast
Chilean Swell Targets CA


On Saturday, June 17, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 199 degrees. Wind 8-12 kts. Water temperature 65.5 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.4 ft @ 11.4 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (Buoy 028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 217 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (Buoy 043) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (Buoy 191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.3 secs from 191 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 6.6 ft @ 8.3 secs from 303 degrees. Wind northwest 20-23 kts at the buoy. Water temp 53.6 degs.

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.


Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/17) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at shoulder high and a bit warbled though reasonably clean with light local winds. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to almost chest high and clean but mostly windswell. In Southern California up north surf was knee high and clean early. In North Orange Co southern hemi background swell was waist high and textured from southerly wind. In South Orange Co background southern hemi swell was producing waves to chest high and clean. In San Diego northwest windswell was producing surf at thigh high and weak but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell with waves knee high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/17) no swell of interest was hitting any breaks in our forecast area other than local windswell or minimal background southern hemi swell. The forecast suggests a small increase in southern hemi swell over the coming days attributable to 3 systems: A small gale that developed under New Zealand Sat-Sun (6/11) tracking east with up to 41 ft seas aimed east. An even smaller weather system that developed just east of New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/14) with up to 37 ft seas tracking northeast. Small swell from the first system to start arriving in Hawaii on Sat (6/17) and for the mainland beyond. Also a small gale that developed off Chile on Wed (6/14) with 28 ft seas aimed north, possibly setting up small swell for exposed breaks in Southern CA by Sunday (6/18). Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast for the South Pacific for the next 7 days.

Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/17) weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was 600 nmiles west of Central CA ridging into the North CA coast generating the standard summer time pressure gradient and 20-25 kt northwest winds focused over North CA resulting in small local northwest windswell from there down into Central CA. No trade winds of interest were being generated off the south side of the high pressure system relative to Hawaii with no real windswell generation potential occurring along east facing shores.

Over the next 72 hours the high pressure system is to push more into the Pacific Northwest with the gradient tightening over North CA with north winds building to 30 kts on Sunday (6/18) then fading some on Monday to 25-30 kts still focused over North CA with windswell continuing for North and Central CA. A light eddy flow (south winds) is possible over Central CA too. By Tues (6/20) the gradient is to start building more as the high builds off Oregon at 1030 mbs with north winds to 30 kts over a broader area coverage all off north and most of Central CA. Nearshore conditions to deteriorate.

For Hawaii trades to remain light and unfocused until later Mon (6/19) as the gradient begins to build and the high becomes more organized. Monday afternoon 15 kts northeast to east winds to stretch from North CA to Hawaii increasing the odds for windswell development. On Tues (6/20) that fetch is to build to 20 kts midway between the mainland and the Islands and with 15 kts east winds pushing up to the Islands with potential for east windswell improving.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/17) high pressure was ridging into the coast from a position 600 nmiles west of Central CA generating a pressure gradient and north winds at 20-25 kts over North and Central CA producing raw local north windswell. Sunday (6/18) the gradient is to lift north with north winds 25-30 kts over Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow (south winds) expected for Central CA. The gradient to fade slightly over North CA on Mon (6/19) but still winds north at 25+ kts with an eddy flow over Central CA. The gradient is to expand later Tues (6/20) with north winds to 30 kts over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 20 kts down into Central CA. Wednesday the gradient is to build more with north winds 35+ kts over Cape Mendocino and north winds 20 kts down to Pt Conception. On Thurs (6/22) the gradient is to peak with north winds 40 kts but with an eddy flow developing and south winds along all of the Central CA coast up to Bodega Bay. Fri (6/23) north winds to continue over Cape Mendocino at 35 kts with the eddy flow holding south of there. Sat (6/24) the gradient is to fade from 30 kts with the eddy flow holding.


South Pacific

On Saturday AM (6/17) the southern branch of the jet was ridging hard south over the Ross Ice Shelf and holding well south across the width of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development. The northern branch was tracking east generally on the 28S latitude line.
Over the next 72 hours this pattern is to hold but with the jet starting to lift north south of Tasmania on Sun (6/18) at 130-140 kts suggesting formation of a trough further west but still falling southeast under New Zealand and into the Southwest Pacific through Tues (6/20). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (6/22) the jet is to start ridging south again over the far Southwest Pacific and then pushing hard into the Ross Ice Shelf Sat (6/24) offering no support for gale development in the greater South Pacific.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (6/17) small swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was tracking northeast towards Hawaii and California (see New Zealand Storm below). Also another small swell was right behind resulting from a gale that tracked northeast along the New Zealand Coast (see Second New Zealand Storm below). And swell from a small gale that developed of Chile was pushing north targeting exposed breaks in California but more focused on Mainland Mexico (see Chilean Gale below).

Otherwise no swell producing fetch was occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


New Zealand Storm
A storm developed southwest of New Zealand on Fri PM (6/9) with 55 kt west winds over a small area aimed east with seas building from 36 ft at 57S 141E. On Sat AM (6/10) winds were fading but still 55 kts from the west while tracking east with seas building to 44 ft over a small area at 58.5S 153E (220 degs NCal and SCal and unshadowed, shadowed relative to HI by NZ). Fetch was fading from 40 kts in the evening with 41 ft seas at 59S 165E (198 degs HI and unshadowed, 212 degs NCal and unshadowed, 211 degs SCal and shadowed). Fetch was rebuilding to 45 kts from the east Sun AM (6/11) south of New Zealand with seas fading from 36 ft at 60S 172.5E (209 degs NCal and 210 degs SCal and both shadowed, 192 degs HI and unshadowed). The gale dissipated from there with 40 kt west winds Sun PM and seas fading from 33 ft at 61S 180W (190 degs HI, 202 degs NCal and 203 degs SCal and unshadowed). The gale was gone after that. Possible sideband swell to result targeting Hawaii and far more direct energy for NCal and shadowed energy from Southern CA.

Hawaii: Swell arrival Sat (6/17) building to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/18) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192-198 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Mon afternoon (6/19) to 1 ft @ 20 secs (2.0 ft) and secondary energy at 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Tues (6/20) to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs (2.0 ft) and 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/21) from 1.4 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 1.4 ft @ 16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202-220 degrees focused on 215 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival Mon afternoon (6/19) at less than 1 ft @ 20 secs (1.5 ft) and secondary energy at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Tues (6/20) to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs (2.0 ft) and 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/21) from 1.1 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 1.1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203-220 degrees focused on 215 degrees


Second New Zealand Storm
Another gale developed well south of Tasmania on Mon AM (6/12) with 40 kt southwest winds starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening a fetch of 45 kt southwest winds was lifting northeast with seas building to 30 ft at 52S 155E and shadowed by New Zealand for CA and HI. On Tues AM (6/13) the storm was lifting northeast and centered just southeast of New Zealand with winds to 50 kts from the south with seas building from 32 ft at 50S 170E but covering only a small area. On Tues PM (6/13) a small fetch of 45-50 kt south winds is to be pushing north just east of the New Zealand coast with 37 ft seas at 46S 175.5E (221 degs SCal, 220 degs NCal, 201 degs HI). On Wed AM (6/14) fetch was fading from 40 kts off North New Zealand generating 33 ft seas at 40.5S 180W. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 37S 175W. This system is to be gone on Thurs AM (6/15).

Possible solid short lived swell for Tahiti given it's close proximity there. A decent pulse of energy is possible for Hawaii too. Lesser energy for the US West Coast given the small fetch size of this system and longer travel distance.

A secondary pulse of low pressure developed just southeast of New Zealand Thurs PM (6/15) with 40-45 kt south winds and seas to 24 ft at 49S 175W. That fetch lifted north Fri AM (6/16) at 35-40 kts aimed due north with seas peaking at 27 ft at 49S 167W. 35 kt south fetch continuing into the evening with barely 28 ft seas at 46S 164S. This system faded out from there. No swell to result expect for Tahiti.

Tahiti: Swell fading on Sun (6/18) from 6.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 220 degrees Secondary pulse of energy to arrive on Mon (6/19) building to 7.5 ft @ 16 secs (12 ft Hawaiian). Swell fading Tues (6/20) from 5.7 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (6/19) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/20) pushing 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (6/21) at (2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Wed PM (6/21) with period 20 secs and size tiny. Swell building on Thurs (6/22) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/23) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/24) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 222 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival Thurs AM (6/22) building to 1 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/23) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/24) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft).Swell Direction: 220 degrees


Chilean Gale
On Mon PM (6/13) a gale started developing off Southern Chile producing 35 kts southeast winds and seas building from 25 ft at 39S 105W aimed decently north. More of the same continued Tues AM (6/13) with seas fading from 24 ft at 38S 104W. In the evening winds built to 40 kts from the southeast lifting north with seas 27 ft at 34S 101W aimed north. Fetch continued but was fading some at 40 kts Wed AM (6/14) with seas 27 ft at 30S 100W aimed due north. Fetch started fading in the evening with seas dropping from 26 ft at 32S 95W. The gale faded from there. Small southeast angled swell is possible for Southern California with more directly energy targeting Mainland Mexico.

Southern CA: Swell arrival expected on Sun (6/18) building to 2.3 ft @ 15 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/19) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Tues (6/20) at 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) with a second pulse arriving later afternoon building to 3.2 ft @ 16 secs late (5.0 ft). Swell continues Wed (6/21) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175 degrees moving to 165 degrees.

North CA: Swell arrival expected on Mon (6/19) building to 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Tues (6/20) at 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) with a second pulse arriving later afternoon building to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues Wed (6/21) at 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/23) (2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) Swell Direction: 175 degrees moving to 165 degrees.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wednesday (6/21) the gradient is to build more in coverage and intensity with north winds 35-40 kts over Cape Mendocino-Pt Arena with an north winds 20 kts in the afternoon down to Pt Conception and windswell increasing yet more. Then Thurs (6/22) north winds to build to 40 kts solid but with an eddy flow setting up from Bodega Bay southward and much improved conditions expected. North winds to hold at 35 kts isolated to North CA with an eddy flow along the Central Coast on Fri (6/23) then the gradient is to start fading on Sat (6/24) but still north winds at 30 kts and an eddy flow from Bodega Bay southward. Not bad at all.

For Hawaii trades to start fading early Wed (6/21) and quickly collapsing after that with windswell fading with the wind.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a pair of weather system are forecast tracking under New Zealand mostly falling southeast and therefore not offering any swell propagating to the north. No swell production is forecast.

More details to follow...


ESPI Index Trending Negative - La Nina Possibly to Return

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Friday (6/16) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were weak westerly in the East Pacific and light easterly in the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Light east anomalies were over the KWGA and forecast to hold for the next 6 days then fading to neutral on day 7 (6/24). These winds are at the 850 mb level (about 4,200 ft) and it is suspect winds will be less down at the surface. This suggests a fading Inactive Phase of the MJO is over the KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 6/16 a moderate Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was over the West Pacific and dateline regions. The statistical model depicts it fading in 8 days with no MJO signal in play beyond out 2 weeks. The dynamic model projects the Inactive Phase holding unchanged in the West Pacific for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/17) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over West Africa and is to disintegrate and become incoherent 2 weeks out. The GEFS depicts the Active Phase weak and holding over West Africa for the next 2 weeks.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/17) This model depicts a modest Inactive/Dry pattern over the dateline tracking east into Central America 6/28 with a weak second Inactive pulse pushing off the Philippines 6/25 and fading Central equatorial Pacific 7/12. Then a weak Active Phase develops in the West Pacific 7/7 tracking to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/27. And Inactive Phase to follow in the West Pacific. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (6/17) This model depicts no MJO signal over the KWGA with a weak Active Phase fading in the extreme West Pacific. Neutral wind anomalies were indicated over the KWGA. Beyond a piece of the Active Phase is to reach the dateline 7/4 with west anomalies developing in the KWGA 6/25 and holding in some form. A legitimate Active Phase of the MJO is to fully develop in the West Pacific on 7/23 with building west anomalies moderate in strength holding till 8/20, then fading as the Inactive Phase of the MJO tries to develop in the KWGA holding through 9/14 (the end of the run). Still weak west anomalies to hold over the KWGA. This is likely overstated as the model has been teasing at west anomalies for months and yet they never develop. The low pass filter indicates La Nina is officially gone (as of 6/14). But a lowpass La Nina signal is to redevelop 7/28 (previously 7/21) in the KWGA with a secondary stronger core just east of California rather than over the KWGA. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up or even a weak La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 3-5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/17) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs over a shallow area at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 148W. The 24 deg isotherm reaches Ecuador down at 30 meters and is 90 meters down at 140W. Warm anomalies are at +2.0 degs in the East Pacific and fading rapidly and +1 deg anomalies are in the West Pacific down at 100m. Continuous 0 to +1 degs anomalies are tracking from east to the west reaching down 110 meters. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 depicts a continuous stream of warm water tracking from the west to the east suggesting a Kelvin Wave is in flight towards the East Pacific. The concern remains that there is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) In the east +5 cm anomalies are fading in coverage along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. In the west +0-5 cm anomalies have retreated only present west of 165E on the equator. A previous pocket of positive heights at 120W associated with an Oceanic Kelvin Wave there is fading in coverage and almost gone. Otherwise a neutral pattern is in play over the remainder of the equator.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/16) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a generalized warm pattern offset from the immediate South American coast with warmest anomalies extending from the Galapagos west out to 160W. Upwelling along the immediate coasts of Chile, Peru and Ecuador is present but somewhat sporadic in frequency. Overall temps appears to be cooling off South America out 2,000 nmiles. The La Nina that developed last Spring is gone and an El Nino like pattern that was trying to build after it during March-May is backing off, but not gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/15): A neutral trend has developed along the coast of Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Pockets of cooling continues on the equator from the Galapagos out to 125W but weakening. A warming trend continues in the Northern Hemi from a point off California pushing north of Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview:
(6/15) A weak warm regime holds from Chile north to Ecuador and west to 140W then stronger to 140E. But it looks like a neutral temperature regime is trying to set up off South America. Pockets of cool anomalies are in the far East Pacific off Ecuador out to 120W. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/17) Today's temps are rising some at +0.604, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2..  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (6/17) temps were steady at +0.519 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/17) The forecast has temps steady at +0.55 degs today into early July then falling to +0.25 in early Aug down to +0.15 early Oct, then falling to -0.1 in Jan 2018, perhaps warming to +0.25 degs in March. This suggests weakly warm pattern fading into the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data (6/12) suggests a Modoki style warming pattern over the dateline this Fall and Winter but other models are no suggesting a return of a weak La Nina pattern. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading. Much recharging and heat buildup is required for a real El Nino to develop. We're at least 5 years out from that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume updated (6/15) depicts temps have warmed to +0.3 degs. Temps are forecast to hold at this level for the coming 8 months suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through Feb.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (6/17): The daily index was rising at -4.43 and has been negative for 17 days. The 30 day average was falling at -2.68. The 90 day average was falling at -3.52 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (6/17) Today's value was falling at -1.64 or trending back towards La Nina. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94, the deepest of the past La Nina event. This measures atmospheric response, not oceanic. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.03, March = +0.09, April=+0.52, May=+0.36. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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