Thursday, June 15, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.9 secs from 176 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.5 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down. Using Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 8.2 secs from 60 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 171 degrees. Wind west at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 63.1 degs, 62.2 (Topanga 103), 61.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.7 (Del Mar 153), 63.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 307 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.1 ft @ 10.3 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 18.2 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 186 degrees. Water temperature was 63.5 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with local northwest windswell 7.4 ft @ 10.4 secs from 312 degrees. Wind southeast at 14-17 kts (46026). Water temp 54.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.8 (San Francisco 46026), 57.9 (SF Bar 142), 58.8 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 59.5 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/15) North and Central CA waves were waist high and and heavily warbled from south wind. Protected breaks were waist high plus on the sets and reasonably lined up and fairly clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe waist high on the sets and short and soft and weak but very clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and fairly clean with decent form but weak. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high and reasonably lined up coming from the south and fairly clean with light south winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high on the peak and lined up with decent form and clean but with some little bump in the water. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up and soft but clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some chest high sets and somewhat lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to almost chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/15) California and Hawaii were getting no swell of interest. A gale developed again in the Southeast Pacific tracking northeast Sun-Tues (6/13) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast. Tiny swell is pushing northeast towards CA and South and Central America. And a small gale is forecast in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sat-Tues (6/20) producing 27 ft seas aimed weakly north. Up north the remnants of Typhoon Guchol approaching the dateline and are to redevelop some on Fri (6/16) briefly generating 22-23 ft seas aimed southeast at Hawaii. Will believe it when it happens. Otherwise a quiet pattern continues as we wait for El Nino to take hold of the Pacific atmosphere.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (6/15) no meaningful swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California generated from the Northern Hemisphere.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
On Thurs (6/15) the remnants of what was Typhoon Guchol previously south of South Japan were tracking east towards the dateline. but on Thurs PM (6/15) Guchols remnants are to rebuild on the dateline producing northwest winds at 40 kts and seas building to 23 ft at 39.25N 174.5E. On Fri AM (6/16) northwest winds to be 35 kts with seas 22 ft at 38.25N 174.75E aimed southeast, then dissipating in the evening. Tiny swell could arrive in Kauai and Oahu maybe on Mon AM (6/19) at 2.6 ft @ 13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) with luck.
Otherwise no tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri AM (6/16) northwest winds to be up to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino over a small area with an eddy flow for the rest of the CA coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to fade at 20-25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow holding south of there. Windswell production fading some.
- Sat AM (6/17) northwest winds to hold over most of North CA at 20+ kts with a light west flow over Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to start building in coverage over North CA at 20-25 kts and 10-15 kts down over Central CA. Fetch very shallow. Northwest windswell minimal.
- Sun AM (6/18) northwest winds hold at 15-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA and very shallow. No change in the afternoon. Minimal raw windswell forecast at best. Water temps starting to fade some
- Mon AM (6/19) high pressure starts building in the Gulf with northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest hold at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA right along the coast. Raw minimal windswell at best.
- Tues AM (6/20) northwest winds are forecast at calm to 15 kts for North CA but 20 kts over Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon. Junky small raw windswell forecast at best.
- Wed AM (6/21) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North and Central CA. and shallow. Minimal raw windswell at best to result.
- Thurs AM (6/22) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North and Central CA. Junky raw local windswell forecast. Water temps slowly fading some.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level is 12,5000 ft today and is to hold through 6/17, then falling to 8,500 ft on 6/19 before building again to 12,000 ft by 6/21 and holding thereafter. Steady snow melt to continue at elevation. Solid snow level 8,900 ft or more on south facing aspects and 8.000 ft on north facing aspects.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (6/15) the jetstream was heavily split over the South Pacific with the southern branch very weak and almost non-existent running east on the 55S latitude line and the northern branch much stronger with winds at 150-160 kts running east on the 29S latitude line. No troughs or support for gale development were indicated over the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours starting Sat (6/17) the southern branch of the jet is to start forming a ridge southeast of New Zealand with a trough building ahead of it over the Central South Pacific lifting north being fed by 100 kt winds perhaps offering some support for gale development while tracking east. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to continue weakly circulating while easing east into Tues (6/20) then dissipating. Support for gale formation is to be weak. The core split pattern is to continue but with perhaps another very weak trough trying to build over the deep South Central Pacific on Thurs (6/22).
No meaningful swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii today.
Over the next 72 hours swell from a weak gale previously in the Southern Pacific is to be propagating northeast (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Weak Southeast Pacific Gale (7th in a Series)
A weak gale developed over the Southeast Pacific (again) on Sun AM (6/11) producing a broad fetch of southeast winds at 35 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 54S 143W aimed northeast. In the evening winds built at 40-45 kts over a small area lifting northeast with seas 25 ft at 54S 130W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/12) fetch is to be tracking east with southwest wind 40 kts and seas 28 ft at 53S 132W and 55S 120.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east with southwest winds 35-40 kts in pockets on the eastern edge of the CA swell window and seas 27 ft at 49S 122W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/13) the gale pushed east of the Southern CA swell window and was fading. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/20) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (6/21) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs fading some later (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/20) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (6/21) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs fading some later (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 moving to 183 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a gale is to develop over the upper reaches of the Central Pacific on Sat AM (6/17) producing a steady fetch of southerly winds at 35 kts with seas building some. In the evening south winds to build to 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 43S 152.25W aimed north. On Sun AM (6/18) south winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 41.25S 150W aimed north over a small area. In the evening south winds to collapse at 35 kts with seas fading below any range of interest. On Mon Am (6/19) fetch is to rebuild at 40 kts from the south with seas 26 ft at 46S 141.75W aimed north. in the evening south winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 45S 139.75W aimed north. Fetch and seas fading out after that. Low odds of this actually happening.
El Nino Building at the Oceans Surface and Trying to Couple with the Atmosphere
Kelvin Wave #4 Poised to Erupt - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Rising While Expanding Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA. Sea Surface Temperatures continue warming. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling deep into negative territory which it appears it is doing. The atmosphere is starting to become coupled with the ocean. The outlook is optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/14) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. Westerly anomalies were moderate to strong May 10 thru May 30 in the KWGA likely producing another Kelvin Wave. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/15) Modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA and moderate over the dateline. East anomalies are fade briefly for the next 3 days then return but limited to the dateline area and points east of there on 6/18 at weak strength then moving east of the KWGA on 6/26 but building to strong status at 135W (of no real interest). West anomalies are forecast moving into the West KWGA on 6/16 at modest strength and then slowly building into the east starting 6/23 and filling it to the dateline on 6/25 and building to near strong status and filling the entire KWGA towards the end of the model run on 7/1. It looks like a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is in control at the moment, but then being overtaken by a new Active Phase 10 days out.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/14) A neutral MJO to slightly weak Active MJO was over the West KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a weak Active MJO is to slowly build over the KWGA filling it on day 10 and holding on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern holding the next 10 day then building over 50% of it on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/15) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the West Maritime Continent and is to track east to the far East Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to move to the West Pacific but exceedingly weak over the next 15 days.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/15) An solid Active (wet) pattern was over the KWGA. The forecast has the strong Active Phase (wet air) pushing east over the KWGA through 6/30 and then over the East Pacific through 7/10 and weakening some before moving into Ecuador. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building weakly over the KWGA on 7/10 and tracking east and filling the KWGA through 7/20 then filling the Pacific through the last day of the model run on 7/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/14) Today a mix of weak west and east anomalies were over the KWGA with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO over the West KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to ease east then fade on 6/16. A mix of east and west anomalies are to hold over the KWGA but with west anomalies building more solidly over the West KWGA 6/17 through 6/28 with one small pocket of east anomalies on the dateline 6/23-6/28. After that west anomalies start building and in control over the dateline 6/29 at moderate strength and building from there through the end of the model run on 7/12 with nary a hint of easterly anomalies forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/11) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to slowly traverse the KWGA through 7/12 but with west anomalies weakly in control. The Active Phase is to start building 7/13 and filling the KWGA and holding through 9/5. West anomalies are to build to strong status 7/9-8/10, then fading to modest strength through the end of the model run. A strong El Nino is potentially developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 127W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east to 125W and tracking slowly east from there and of no real interest at this point. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 165E with 2 contour lines and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 150W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring and is to continue into 7/9 with it's leading edge then stalling at 135W filling most of the Pacific with a third contour line developing on 6/29 with the primarily contours leading edge locked at 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears a strong El Nino is developing.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/15) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and steady at 171E with the 29 degree isotherm easing racing east at 157W (previously 176W). The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking slightly from 112W to 117W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with no breaks, A previous pocket of +3 degree anomalies that was in the west (Kelvin Wave #5) centered at 165W was now gone with +3-5 degs anomalies in the far East Pacific starting at 134W and back-building. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates a huge very warm stream of +2-3 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3-4 erupting there into Ecuador. A new Kelvin Wave was building on the dateline between 165E to 155W at +3-4 degs (Kelvin Wave #5) while another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 120E at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #6). No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +5 cms solid with a pocket of +10 cm anomalies in the west near 170E connected to another at +10 cms along the Ecuador coast extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 138W a point east of there and +1.5 degs in the West at 160E with +0.5 degree anomalies connecting the two. There's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/14) The latest images depict a strong warm signal building along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with lesser but still serious heat extending up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja with a building tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator now reaching west to the dateline (previously 155W) and a warmer core to 130W. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear and building El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal Springtime upwelling pattern in control there and likely be reinforced over the next week.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/14): A neutral pattern over the east equatorial Pacific and extending west on the equator to 170W. It's not surprising there's no clear signal of warming along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get much warmer. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (6/14) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in a few pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to 165W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are falling slightly at +2.488 after building to +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are steady at +0.697 after falling for 5 days after rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 18 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps were +0.45 degs today.
Forecast (6/15) - Temps are above ENSO neutral at +0.9 degs and are forecast rising to +1.20 degs in July and +1.95 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.00 degs in July and +1.50 degs in Nov/Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.761 degs today and it's the third month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.153 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Aug/Sept then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.672 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. This model suggests were are transitioning to El Nino.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/15) the Daily Index was negative at -4.92 but had been near neutral the previous 3 days, positive 5 days previous and then negative for 27 days previous to that ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising from -12.86 and the most negative in years. It previously had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -6.52 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table